NBA Eastern Conference Over/Under Win Totals: Kawhi, Toronto Raptors Will Disappoint

The NBA season is less than a week away. If the bettors are looking to make the most effective over/under win total bets, here are write-ups for the 15 teams in the Eastern Conference.

All totals based on Westgate Current via Action Network.

Boston Celtics – Over 59 wins

Even though this total has been set high, I have the Celtics winning 60+ games this season. The C’s won 55 games last season, passing their expected win total of 53. They did so with Kyrie Irving out injured for half the season and Gordon Hayward out for all of it. Adding those two stars to Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and the rest of the Boston squad that experienced the playoffs, will make this team even better this season. Danny Ainge also has a ton of assets that he might be able to flip, so the possibility of improving even more with a mid-season acquisition exists as well. Lastly, they have the man, and my favorite coach in the league, Brad Stevens. He will make sure they are prepared night in and night out, and more importantly, help them rack up wins vs. a weak Eastern Conference.

Toronto Raptors – Under 55.5 wins

While most are bullish on the Raptors due to the Kawhi Leonard acquisition, I’m going the other way, as there are just too many question marks going into the season. Will Kawhi be locked in, or is he looking forward to free agency? If he isn’t, will the Raptors trade him at the deadline? Another reason for the Raptors regular season success the past few years was their great team chemistry, especially between Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozen. With the departure of DeRozen, will this team as a whole still have that chemistry? Will their bench be as good as it was last year? Will they be able to stay as healthy as they have been the past few years? Lastly, they have a new head coach in Nick Nurse. Can he coach and manage these egos? If any one of these go sideways, 56 wins will be hard to come by.

Philadelphia 76ers – Under 54 wins

I love the 76ers and can’t wait until they face off vs. the Celtics in the playoffs. That being said, I am taking the under. They are bringing back their two stars in Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid, but lost Marco Belinelli and Ersan Ilyasova, both of whom were big cogs during their 16-game winning streak towards the end of the season. On top of that, they missed out on all of the big free agents, and their 1st round draft pick Zhaire Smith suffered a fractured foot. Granted Simmons, Embiid, Saric, and Co. should improve internally, and getting Markelle Fultz back will be like gaining a another lottery pick, but this number is inflated. Then there is also the case of Joel Embiid’s health. It sucks to talk about, but if he does miss some time, or they rest him to be safe, that can have an adverse affect on their season total as well.

Milwaukee Bucks – Over 48.5 wins

The Bucks finished with 44 wins last year, but got much better at one key position, head coach. Mike Budenholzer is a huge improvement over former Bucks coaches Jason Kidd and Joe Prunty. He understands the modern NBA and utilizes spacing, ball movement, and shooting. Speaking of shooting, I love the offseason they had in picking up Brook Lopez, Ersan İlyasova, and Donte DiVincenzo. Why? All three can space the floor. Malcolm Brogdon was having a great season before he got injured, and should return back to form. Don’t forget, Eric Bledsoe and Khris Middleton are both going into contract years, so you know they will ball out. This will all maximize Giannis Antetokounmpo’s true potential. The King of the East should have an even better year, which should tip them over the 48-win mark.

Indiana Pacers – Over 48 wins

After winning 48 games last season, the Pacers should take a step forward this year due in part to their off-season. They added some nice under-the-radar pieces in Tyreke Evans, Kyle O’Quinn, and Doug McDermott. Evans should be better than Lance Stephenson, O’Quinn is a good hustle guy off the bench, and McBuckets should be able to get a lot of open 3’s playing next to Victor Oladipo. Aaron Holiday was also a great value pick at 23, and should be able to contribute right away. Bojan Bogdanovic is just a monster, and Myles Turner will only get better now that he is eating well and practicing yoga. His body transformation is incredible, so look out. Either way, if the Pacers are going to get this over, they will need Oladipo to take yet another leap, and I am all aboard for the ride.

Washington Wizards – Under 45.5 wins

The Wizards are looking to jump back into the upper echelon of the East after a down year last year, but I am not buying the hype. This team, despite all the talent they have, obviously has chemistry issues, and their free agent signings of Dwight Howard and Jeff Green just don’t move the needle for me. Heck, Dwight Howard just literally injured his butt last week, and is going to miss time apparently over that. And don’t get me started on Austin Rivers, whom they traded Gortat for. One word, overhyped. This is a talented team on paper with Beal and Wall, but until this team lives up to its potential, I can’t back them.

Miami Heat – Under 43.5 wins

Miami brings back mostly the same roster that went 44-38 last season, as they didn’t improve via free agency. With the Heat front office being stagnant this off-season, I see them treading water, and their season being mostly a DWade farewell tour. They also have a ton of big contracts that are going to be tough to move, but if they do pull off a Jimmy Butler trade somehow, then everything does change wins wise for them. But for now, take the under.

Detroit Pistons – Over 38.5 wins

Call me crazy, but I am buying the Pistons this season. Dwane Casey was a nice hire for them, and even though he came up short in the playoffs (LeBronto), he has always had regular season success. I also see Andre Drummond and Blake Griffin doing damage vs. the East, and the combination of Reggie Jackson and Luke Kennard should give them just enough firepower to make a playoff run this season. If they stay healthy, they should be able to surpass their win total.

Charlotte Hornets – Over 35.5 wins

Yes, this team should have finished better than they have the last two seasons, but this is the year they turn it around. Kemba Walker is a star and will be gunning for another All-Star nod, but it is the other guys who I see stepping up to push this bet over. Miles Bridges has looked nice in preseason and they have added veterans on the squad to learn from like Tony Parker. The X-factor is going to be Cody Zeller, who showed last year that he could complement Kemba perfectly. If he can stay healthy, and Kemba gets buckets like he usually does, the Hornets should be contending for a playoff spot.

Brooklyn Nets – Over 32 wins

The Nets, who had 28 wins last season, have done a nice job of filling out their roster by adding vets Ed Davis, Jared Dudley, Kenneth Faried, and Shabazz Napier. All of those guys should help with defense and rebounding. I’m also high on Spencer Dinwiddie, D’Angelo Russell, Joe Harris, Allen Crabbe and Jarrett Allen and see them all getting better this season. Another thing to keep an eye on is that they are also positioned perfectly to make a big trade at the trade deadline. If they do acquire one of the bigger names that will be on the market, that will help this total sail easily over. I see it happening either way…bet the over.

Cleveland Cavaliers – Over 31 wins

This was the toughest call for me on the board. I’m rolling the dice and going with the over simply for one reason…veterans. They have solid vets on this roster, even after the departure of LeBron James. Kevin Love should be able to put up big numbers, and you know guys like JR Smith, Tristan Thompson, George Hill and Kyle Korver will compete every night. And while rookie Collin Sexton will need time to develop, we know he goes hard against everyone. Lastly, owner Dan Gilbert has said he is looking for the Cavs to compete this season, not rebuild, so it makes sense he’s kept some of the usual suspects around. I see them grinding out some victories late in the season, which should push them over.

Orlando Magic – Under 31 wins

While I love the 7-foot-wingspan crew the Magic have put together in Mo Bamba, Jonathan Isaac, and Aaron Gordon, someone other than Gordon will need to be able to score for them to surpass 31 wins. Their backcourt is possibly the worst in all of the NBA, which is why I am going with the under.

Chicago Bulls – Over 30 wins

The Bulls, just like the Cavs, were another tough call. I was all-in on the Bulls over when Vegas first released their 27.5 win total. Mostly because they finished with 27 wins last season – eclipsing their 21.5 number that was set for them – but have more depth and talent on this year’s roster. Zach LaVine has looked great this off-season and so far in the preseason, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him average 20 a game. Jabari Parker coming over is still a question mark, but even if he ends up not fitting into Fred Hoiberg’s offense or struggles defensively, he can still score the rock, and adds depth to a roster that didn’t have any last year. Wendell Carter Jr. and Chandler Hutchison also showed flashes during Summer League, and don’t forget about Kris Dunn, Bobby Portis, and Brook Lopez. All guys that play hard game in and game out. In regards to the ‘LeBron effect’, the Bulls were 0-4 vs. the Cleveland Cavaliers last year. They should win a couple of those now that he is gone. What makes this over call tough now is that the total has jumped up to 30, and of course, the injury to Lauri Markkanen. Lauri Legend had a terrific rookie season, becoming the fastest player to reach 100 3-pointers in NBA history, all while handling the spotlight of a rebuild perfectly. Markannen has also added 14 pounds of muscle this off-season, and played well for Finland this summer. With Lauri scheduled to possibly miss a third of the season, this bet just got a lot harder to hit. I had them pegged to win 33-35 games with him this season, so will stick with the over here. Gulp.

New York Knicks – Under 28 wins

I don’t see Kristaps Porzingis coming back from his ACL injury until late December at the earliest, and even that might be a big stretch. Some have even speculated that he might miss the season completely, and even the Knicks themselves have said they are going to be cautious with his return and don’t know when he is coming back. I see the Knicks going full out tank mode. If that happens, they will have max money to sign a stud in free agency, and this new lottery pick would give them another young stud to pair with KP and Knox. While I love what they did in the draft and what they are building in New York, they just don’t have enough firepower to surpass this win total without KP.

Atlanta Hawks – Under 22.5 wins

The Hawks should be a little more competitive and definitely a lot more entertaining than they were last year, mainly do to their lottery pick Trae Young. But, overall, there is still a huge lack of talent on this roster. They also have a rookie head coach, which is another big unknown. The Hawks are another team that will be in full out tank mode, so look for them to finish around 20 wins.