2009 MLB Projections: AL East
Baseball March 30th. 2009, 2:15pm
1. Yankees - Last year we wanted to pick the Yankees to miss the postseason – even wondered if the White Sox would make it! You laughed – but we didn’t, and they were overtaken by the plucky young Rays. In response, NY added the stout Sabathia, the cocksure Burnett and Tex and we’ve got them winning the division with 98 victories. Sure, CF is a bit dicey, and A-Rod’s hurt, but we like the improved (and healthy!) pitching situation to bring them back to their late 90s glory.
2. Red Sox – No. 1 in OBP, No. 2 in OPS, and No. 3 in batting average in the majors last year and we’re going to guess all those numbers take a significant hit this year. We’ll say they don’t finish in the top seven in any of them. Call it our Gavin Floyd pick of 2009, and hopefully, it’ll be as prescient. Boston’s got enough pitching to get back to the postseason, and we’ll guess 94 wins.
3. Rays - If Tampa misses the postseason, MLB will silently cheer because it means no repeat of last year’s dismal embarrassingly-low World Series ratings. Highly doubt the arms and bats can duplicate the memorable 2008 season and they end up with 88 wins. The Baseball Friend is still holding out hope for a dynasty, though.
4. Blue Jays - Same story with these guys every year – solid bats, live arms, no postseason. Somebody, somewhere (Alberta?), is sure to say “the Rays pulled it off, why not the Jays?” A .500 mark would make the season a success. Without Marcum for the year, and McGowan on the shelf until at least June, we’ll predict 79 wins.
5. Orioles - Wieters. It’s all about Wieters. Can’t miss! He’s starting the season in the minors. Likes: The Adam Jones not nicknamed Pacman. Markakis. Guthrie. Pecota and Chone have the Orioles at 75 and 74 wins, respectively. The over/under is 73.5. Hmmmm. We’ll guess 72.
100 Responses to “2009 MLB Projections: AL East”
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March 30th, 2009 at 2:20 pm
holy shit…you are just causing firestorms all day today tbl. i like your moves.
/cant wait for the east coasters to start arguing about their teams.
March 30th, 2009 at 2:21 pm
Wouldn’t be the least bit shocked if the Rays finished last. Still think Boston will win though.
And watch for Jose Bautista to light it up in Toronto. Kidding.
March 30th, 2009 at 2:22 pm
I’ll take that bet.
March 30th, 2009 at 2:22 pm
i wont quibble with the Yankees winning the division but there is absolutely no reason to expect them to do anything in the playoffs. Burnett/Sabathia= not ready for prime time players. Maybe they take a series by winning all the games 10-9.
March 30th, 2009 at 2:23 pm
Feel the Heat
Buck Foston
March 30th, 2009 at 2:24 pm
I cant wait for Sabathia to start getting booed in Yankee Stadium by May.
March 30th, 2009 at 2:26 pm
Holy shit, are you kidding me? There is no chance that happens.
March 30th, 2009 at 2:28 pm
Me too.
Well, their bats actually weren’t very good last year. No .300 hitter, 2 hitters with an OPS over .850, one guy with 100 RBI. I would guess Upton has a monster year, and Crawford recovers from a down year. And I don’t see why their arms will fail them.
Beckett, Dice-K, Lester > CC, Burnett, Wang
March 30th, 2009 at 2:30 pm
No. 1 in OBP, No. 2 in OPS, and No. 3 in batting average in the majors last year and we’re going to guess all those numbers take a significant hit this year. We’ll say they don’t finish in the top seven in any of them
Was this an effort to compete for the most foolish thing ever uttered on this site? I hate the Bosox, and wish this had any chance of coming true…but, alas, this was just foolishness on your part. ZERO chance.
March 30th, 2009 at 2:30 pm
TBL, what does the winner of the Yahoo! NCAA bracket get for a prize?
March 30th, 2009 at 2:31 pm
Since when does Burnett fall into the category of a healthy player?
March 30th, 2009 at 2:33 pm
Glad to have the BoSox back in the position of being ignored for the even richer Yankees. Can’t wait until the first dissention in the Yankees’ locker room happens in May.
March 30th, 2009 at 2:34 pm
Calipari to UK is looking like a done deal. I said this last week, and was told by about 10 people “NO CHANCE”. Hmmmm.
March 30th, 2009 at 2:35 pm
Why stop there? The Red Sox entire staff is better than the Yankee staff, not just the top of the rotation. Barring major injury, I don’t see the Red Sox not winning the division.
March 30th, 2009 at 2:37 pm
In response, NY added the fat Sabathia, the cock Burnett and choking high-priced free-agent number 20 in the last 10 years in Tex and we’ve got them losing the division with 89 victories
/reality check’d
//not living in NYC’d
March 30th, 2009 at 2:37 pm
Calipari turns down Memphis counter offer?
March 30th, 2009 at 2:40 pm
i still don’t see the yankees going to the postseason.
red sox are the class of the division, easily. i think the rays finish second, but miss the wild card. yankees third. when price gets called up, that’s an insane rotation (shields, kazmir, garza, sonnestein, price).
i can easily see burnett, the headcase that he is, melting down and c.c. having arm trouble.
March 30th, 2009 at 2:40 pm
this is about right
March 30th, 2009 at 2:41 pm
@mike- that link said he resigned
March 30th, 2009 at 2:41 pm
This is going to be a great race all year. As a Boston fan, I like their chances. Beckett always alternates good and bad years, Penny will shine as the 3rd starter, and the lineup will produce.
Of course NY scares me, but CC’s arm is going to fall off mid-way through the season, and Burnett is always hurt, plus their lineup (Jeter, Matsui, Damon, Posada) are all a year older. Throw in A-Rod missing 2 months (or more), and I think 98 wins is a stretch.
March 30th, 2009 at 2:41 pm
LOL! I hate that fucking song. Got wicked high with one of the Nasty boys in the offseason though. Go Rays!
March 30th, 2009 at 2:42 pm
why does everyone keep saying this? i am going to say this about every good pitcher that throws over 200 innings from now on.
March 30th, 2009 at 2:43 pm
jimmy- I think Sonnanstine is going to get traded. They’ll have Hammel start I think.
March 30th, 2009 at 2:44 pm
Actually, the Yanks 1-5 projects to be better than the Sox, and it’s not particularly close.
March 30th, 2009 at 2:46 pm
It’s possible that CC has arm trouble, but it would have been more likely last year, since he jumped from 193 innings in 2006 to 241 the next year. He’ll probably have a couple good years but I think that ends up being a pretty bad contract.
March 30th, 2009 at 2:47 pm
I think Sonnanstine is going to get traded
why would he be traded?
March 30th, 2009 at 2:48 pm
and c.c. having arm trouble.
why does everyone keep saying this?
Because half of them do, so if you say it about all of them, you’re right 50% of the time
/science
PS: I heard Joba has less velocity right now
March 30th, 2009 at 2:49 pm
no one talked about CC getting hurt until the yanks wanted to sign him. his workload won’t be that high, because Girardi won’t let him pitch the 8 and 9th if they are up 6-1.
March 30th, 2009 at 2:49 pm
In 2007, he upped his IP by almost 25%, and then struggled in the postseason and most of 2008 (until he got traded to the NL). Last year, upped his IP again slightly. Recent history does not bode well for him.
March 30th, 2009 at 2:52 pm
I was laughing my ass off watching him pitch all his CGs with the Brewers because it was so obvious they treated him like a rental car, running him into the ground. But I don’t have a blog, so nobody cares what I think.
March 30th, 2009 at 2:53 pm
CC started slowly with the Indians last year, but go look at his stats overall before they traded him. he was fine. where is spencer?
March 30th, 2009 at 2:53 pm
if a tree doesn’t fall in NYC, does it truly fall?
here in cleveland we were worried about the innings pitched since 2007. it’s a big issue. people openly wondered about the same thing when CC was going the distance every 4 days for milwaukee last year too.
just sayin.
March 30th, 2009 at 2:53 pm
Girardi won’t let him pitch the 8 and 9th if they are up 6-1.
Girardi was fired by the Marlins because of the way he handled pitchers (Josh Johnson, Anibal Sanchez, Ricky Nolasco, etc) and because he was a DICK. CC and his “portly” 3 bills won’t last long (at least in years, maybe not in ‘09).
March 30th, 2009 at 2:53 pm
not psycho t’s one shining moment
March 30th, 2009 at 2:56 pm
Apparently Word Press wouldn’t let me post my comment the first time (or maybe it did and I can’t see it) but the reason he’s getting traded is simply because there are better guys coming up after him.
March 30th, 2009 at 2:56 pm
he was fired because the owner is an ass.
March 30th, 2009 at 2:57 pm
yea, he just had a blip in the radar at the beginning of last season. he was tits otherwise.
that said, he hasn’t had any injury concern his entire career, but you have to wonder how long that’ll last. pitchers these days ALL break down at some point.
March 30th, 2009 at 2:59 pm
but the reason he’s getting traded is simply because there are better guys coming up after him
okey dokey
March 30th, 2009 at 3:00 pm
it didn’t help that girardi, from the dugout, yelled at loria who was sitting just behind the dugout to shut his trap.
given the throngs that attend fish games, all of 18 people might have heard him.
March 30th, 2009 at 3:02 pm
last time i checked pitching wins over hitting
sox are better off than the yankees…sox had all those stats in hitting w/ an injured papi and lowell
not sayin they’re gonna be good, but they’ll both be better, ellsbury will be better…youk and pedrioa are studs
yankees will continue to be a mess
March 30th, 2009 at 3:02 pm
agree. i don’t expect CC to be the same pitcher he was the last two years, but i don’t expect him to land on the 60 day DL anytime soon. some guys manage to avoid that until late in their career. see: johnson, randy. He put much more torque and stress on his arm than CC.
March 30th, 2009 at 3:03 pm
randy was always in shape. CC? i don’t think we can say that.
love the guy and wish him all the best (except when he’s pitching against the tribe) but it’s not a foregone conclusion that something’s not gonna pop.
then again, what the fuck do i know?
March 30th, 2009 at 3:04 pm
@ JAY V
I will admit being wrong, I wrote it in another post, but somone I know with good ties to Memphis said the AD royally f’d this one up this morning, so I thought there was a chance of this. He was adament this wasn’t going to happen last week so I took his word at the time. It will be interesting to see how the recruiting dominos fall from this.
That being said I wouldn’t take anything on a Kentucky board to be the absolute truth just yet.
March 30th, 2009 at 3:06 pm
exactly. you are someone that called a true story; contrived.
/love ya anyway.
March 30th, 2009 at 3:07 pm
“There’s energy in chocolate. I need energy.” -C.C. Sabbathia
March 30th, 2009 at 3:09 pm
The O’s will finish above the Jays this year. Book it. And next year, they will be in division contention talks.
Not that anyone cares, but I can’t take the endless Yankees/Sawx blowing.
March 30th, 2009 at 3:09 pm
FUCK THE NATURAL.
March 30th, 2009 at 3:09 pm
sparty: Loria (and espcially Samson) are dicks, but what jimmy said is the big reason he got whacked. Also, the pitching issue. Girardi is an ass, and his “my way or the highway” shit cannot play well w/ the Yanks
http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/yankees/2008/03/02/2008-03-02_florida_marlins_owner_jeffrey_loria_rips.html
March 30th, 2009 at 3:09 pm
@General, my sources aren’t the Kentucky board, although they all seem pretty convinced.
I don’t think it was you, but someone last week alluded to Kentucky’s program being irrelevant. Whoever said that was sooooooo off base; UK may always have some down time, but that empire will always rise again. And, with Calapari coming, that rise will occur sooner rather than later. It’s just like Oklahoma or USC football, just needed the right coach to get them back on track.
March 30th, 2009 at 3:11 pm
A quote via Rick Bozich’s blog on the courier journal
World Wide Wes responding to a question about Calipari to Kentucky:
“What’s going to happen is going to be monumental for college basketball. It’s going to be exciting. It’s going to be great.”
I fing hate world wide wes, someone needs to get his dirty hands off of college basketball.
March 30th, 2009 at 3:13 pm
I like the Sox’s depth. The Yanks have Hughes but after that? I could be forgetting somebody. No faith in Burnett (not in a contract year, at least). The Sox have Masterson, Buchholz, and Smoltz behind their top 5. Plus I like the Red Sox bullpen much more than the Yanks.
March 30th, 2009 at 3:14 pm
I understand your point (ie. ESPN’s constant coverage), and as a Red Sox fan I agree with you, but in a post entitled “MLB Projections: AL East”, I don’t think it’s unreasonable to be discussing Yankees/Red Sox. That would be like complaining about UNC coverage in a post about the Final 4.
March 30th, 2009 at 3:15 pm
I would never say that because I laugh at the same Illinois fans that say IU is irrelevant because of the last 5 years.
March 30th, 2009 at 3:15 pm
Quizz…isn’t smoltzy out until the ASB?
March 30th, 2009 at 3:16 pm
@jay V
i thought you said curry was going to south carolina?
March 30th, 2009 at 3:17 pm
“Those Yankees are real turds.” Tanner Boyle
just goes to show you how relevant the bad news bears are to this day.
/its on amc right now
March 30th, 2009 at 3:17 pm
@ Jay V
So was it true in some matter that a coach had agreed to take this job in principle a few weeks ago and if so was that Cal because I had heard that from numerous people.
March 30th, 2009 at 3:19 pm
agreed. the same things were being said about UNC a few years back when they suffered through the Guthridge recruiting years.. they made a return and so will UK
March 30th, 2009 at 3:23 pm
i was talking about Hoosiers.
March 30th, 2009 at 3:25 pm
FUCK HOOSIERS.
March 30th, 2009 at 3:27 pm
FUCK THE NATURAL.
i was talking about Hoosiers.
FUCK THE HOOSIERS.
I agree with this sentiment
March 30th, 2009 at 3:28 pm
Spence, I know he is out for at least a couple months but I like their depth nonetheless. I am not a Red Sox fan so I would like to think I am being fairly objective. Counting on Buchholz to regain form might be a leap as well but Masterson is solid, if needed. Penny should be solid as a 4/5 starter.
March 30th, 2009 at 3:28 pm
@Spence: yeah, Smoltz won’t start right away, but they also have Masteron, Bucholtz to call up if they need to for hte 5th spot. Also have Penny (yeah, not great.) to fill up that 5th spot. Real solid bullpen with Pap, Okajima, Delcarmen, Masterson and bard.
Yanks have nothing after their starting 5 and their bullpen is beyond weak, especially if Joba can’t get his velocity up.
March 30th, 2009 at 3:30 pm
wilhelm – The Yanks have Hughes also. And the Sox also have Saito in the pen.
March 30th, 2009 at 3:33 pm
Red Sox also acquired Saito for an additional set-up pitcher. Sure he’s like 58 years old, but he won’t be required to pitch everyday, so I think it’s a great move.
March 30th, 2009 at 3:37 pm
Ramon Ramirez could turn out to be a nice little pickup in the Sox bullpen as well.
March 30th, 2009 at 3:37 pm
via the courier journal:
WHBQ in Memphis is reporting that Kentucky has offered Calipari $4-4.5 million per year with incentives that could reach 6 million.
March 30th, 2009 at 3:38 pm
Smoltzy’s return date is June 1st. Sox also have Michael Bowden, Daniel Bard (out of UNC) and Junichi Tazawa.
March 30th, 2009 at 3:48 pm
Didnt he throw 101 this spring? The future’s looking good.
March 30th, 2009 at 3:52 pm
Bard was clocked over a 100 in college and averages 98 topping off at 101
March 30th, 2009 at 3:54 pm
again, don’t follow the red sox all that closely but it looks like after they gave up on Bard as a starter he has been lights out.
March 30th, 2009 at 3:54 pm
red sox need manny.
March 30th, 2009 at 3:57 pm
He also throws that straighter than you can imagine. Kyle Farnsworth throws gas too.
March 30th, 2009 at 3:58 pm
spence – BP has Manny as worth almost two more wins this year.
March 30th, 2009 at 3:58 pm
TBL is picking the Yankees. Shocker.
Sox
Yankers
Jays
Rays
Orioles
March 30th, 2009 at 4:00 pm
two more than Bay that is
March 30th, 2009 at 4:07 pm
so A. There is streaming video of Calipari’s office.
and B. if he goes supposedly Mike Anderson is the favorite to replace him at Memphis.
March 30th, 2009 at 4:07 pm
Quizz…yea, i figured you were talking about bay. while i like numbers as much as anyone, this is more of a gut feeling. i’ve never really liked bay’s game and am probably the biggest manny fan in the world.
one of these days i’ll bring something objective to the table.
March 30th, 2009 at 4:09 pm
Don’t bother. I am a Dodger fan and I like your argument much better than mine.
March 30th, 2009 at 4:10 pm
ps – I will trade you Casey Blake for Carlos Santana and Jon Meloan.
/the bitterness will never die
March 30th, 2009 at 4:11 pm
He also throws that straighter than you can imagine. Kyle Farnsworth throws gas too.
His fastball is not straight. He lowered his arm angle slightly due to control problems, but his FB is not straight.
March 30th, 2009 at 4:12 pm
so A. There is streaming video of Calipari’s office.
Don’t bother watching. He has already been relocated to an undisclosed secure location
March 30th, 2009 at 4:13 pm
Quizz…i feel your pain, man. that was straight up theft by mark shapiro.
March 30th, 2009 at 4:14 pm
/Billy Koch’d
March 30th, 2009 at 4:14 pm
anderson already has alabama and georgia fighting over him. those two programs might be a step down from missouri. why take two steps down to go to memphis?
March 30th, 2009 at 4:15 pm
Q and Q- how’s my boy Joey Wong doing this year?
March 30th, 2009 at 4:16 pm
$$$$$$$- Mizzou’s cap on an extension is 1.5 mil per year. Memphis would go much higher. And Bama already has a coach.
March 30th, 2009 at 4:22 pm
Cosmo – Caught him in action this past Sunday. He went 0-fer but is still batting over .300 for the year and has a .400+ OBP. As I am sure you are aware, kid is sick with the glove too.
March 30th, 2009 at 4:24 pm
Cosmo – Caught him in action yesterday. He went 0-fer at the dish but is still hitting over .300 on the year. Also has a OBP over .400 and a respectable .420 SLG line. As I am sure you are aware, kid is sick with the glove too.
March 30th, 2009 at 4:25 pm
I don’t know if it is TBL’s server or my f-ing internet but this is getting tired.
March 30th, 2009 at 4:27 pm
Anderson is the ideal candidate for Kentucky, except for one glaring skin color issue.
March 30th, 2009 at 4:35 pm
Cosmo – Caught him in action yesterday. He went 0-fer at the dish but is still hitting over .300 on the year. Also has a OBP over .400 and a respectable .420 SLG line. As I am sure you are aware, kid is sick with the glove too.
March 30th, 2009 at 4:43 pm
Thank you Nick.
March 30th, 2009 at 4:44 pm
Rudy SUCKS! We cut him.
March 30th, 2009 at 4:48 pm
Cosmo – Caught him in action yesterday. He went 0-fer at the dish but is still hitting over .300 on the year. Also has a OBP over .400 and a respectable .420 SLG line. As I am sure you are aware, kid is sick with the glove too.
You can say that again!
March 30th, 2009 at 4:55 pm
@youngstown…story I got on Curry is this: he considered 3 schools: Duke, Wake, & SC. I guess when push comes to shove, the allure of Duke was too much.
@general…I think the deal with Cal has been on place for some time. I said a few weeks ago that there was no way UK was firing Billy Clyde unless they were fairly certain who his replacement was going to be, they went thru the public fiasco the last time of publicly being turned down by 3 or 4 guys, it wasn’t going to happen again. Honestly, I don’t think Billy D was even under consideration this time, it was all about Cal.
March 30th, 2009 at 5:01 pm
Jay, I thought it was Clemson, not SC?
March 30th, 2009 at 5:46 pm
Still can’t fathom that idiot Angelos turned down MLB’s offer to switch division with the Expos the year they moved to DC. Only question for the O’s is when does the young pitching arrive? Supposed to be the best group in the minors:Arrieta,Matusz,Bergeson,Tillman,Erbe. The current starters: worst in the AL.
March 30th, 2009 at 5:54 pm
BB, why would Angelos switch divisions? The money that comes with being in the same division as the Yanks and the Sox is all he wants.
March 31st, 2009 at 1:34 am
Definitely going to be an interesting race in the division this year.
I am concerned about the offensive production for the Sox. Obviously, not having Manny will be a challenge (putting it mildly) to overcome. I’m guessing their lineup will go like this:
1. Ellsbury
2. Pedroia
3. Ortiz
4. Drew
5. Youkilis
6. Bay
7. Lowell
8. Varitek
9. Lowrie/Lugo
Maybe you can flip-flop Drew and Ortiz (J.D. did have a hell of a June last year filling in that number 3 spot), and you could conceivably put Youk 4th and maybe move Ortiz to 5. Any way you look at it, they have a very solid 1-6. 7-9, however…yikes.
They’ll be able to manufacture runs, without a doubt. The strength of the team is going to be the pitching.
1. Beckett
2. Dice-K
3. Lester
4. Wakefield
5. Penny
Smoltz won’t be around until June at the earliest. If any one of those guys is struggling, he’ll slide right in to the rotation and take their spot. I’d gladly put Beckett-Matsuzaka-Lester against anything the Yanks have to throw at us.
Not to mention, you have Masterson and Buchholz in the pen, along with Okajima, Tazawa, and of course, Paps.
I feel like it’s definitely going to be a defense/pitching year for the Sox. They went with that strategy at the trade deadline in ‘04.
Worked out pretty well, if I recall.