2009 MLB Projections: AL Central
Baseball March 31st. 2009, 12:00pm
1. Cleveland Indians: As much as we’d like to avoid conventional thinking and take the Tigers first … we’re in lust with the Tribe this year. (How much? We even made sure to pick up Jensen Lewis as a backup closer for when Kerry Wood falls apart.) It’s the bats that impress us, and just as we think the Red Sox will be carried by their pitching, we think Cleveland’s hitting – led by Grady Sizemore, seen here hanging out with his Playboy Playmate girlfriend in Vegas this offseason – will propel it to the postseason despite a shaky rotation. Random prediction: Indians finish in the top five in OBP and OPS this year (they were 11th and 8th in 2008). We’ll guess 88 victories.
2. Detroit Tigers: Rotation’s gross, bullpen’s blah, and other than Miggy Cabrera, the infield’s weak. Here’s hoping Curtis Granderson doesn’t throw out his back by June while carrying this team. We’ll project 84 wins.
3. Minnesota Twins: The small-town darlings lost a one-game playoff to the White Sox, and it may have been the end of the Twins joyous run in the 00s. Reached the postseason in 2002, 2003 and 2006, but barring something out of the ordinary, the drought will continue into 2009. Even if Liriano regains his 2006 form and the offense … wait, where’s the offense coming from? We’re a bit more optimistic than PECOTA and Chone, but still think they’ll finish under .500. Think 80 wins.
4. Chicago White Sox: Surprise division-winners in 2008 seemed poised for a hard slide in 2009. Other than Ozzie Guillen outbursts and Alexei Ramirez, there’s very little to get excited about. Being a White Sox fan must be a frustrating existence in the Windy City since reaching the World Series: A 90-win, third place finish; a 72-win clunker, and then a first-round loss to the Rays. Yet the Cubs – who disappoint annually – are infinitely more popular. Does 76 wins seem about right?
5. Kansas City Royals: A bit surprised to see PECOTA have these guys finishing third, considering they’ve only won between 56-75 games over the last five years. They’ve finished over .500 once since 1994. Still, we made sure to pursue Alex Gordon (buy low, baby!), Meche and Soria in all of our fantasy leagues. We’ll guess 72 wins.
53 Responses to “2009 MLB Projections: AL Central”
Leave a Reply
You must be logged in to post a comment.
March 31st, 2009 at 12:06 pm
But they’re better than the Twins?
March 31st, 2009 at 12:07 pm
I still like the top three starters of Buehrle, Danks and Floyd and the back end of the bullpen but their problems at the 4th and 5th starters a massive and this isn’t the best defensive club…they should still be able to to score some runs though
Also they have a bad division working in their favor (especially if this Mauer business keeps up)
As for fan frustration I’ll take a team being less popular (and it’s really not as bad as the national media makes it out to be, there are a lot of us out there) that can actually, you know, score more runs than the other team in a postseason game
March 31st, 2009 at 12:15 pm
A bit surprised to see PECOTA have these guys finishing third, considering they’ve only won between 56-75 games over the last five years.
Last I checked, they’re playing with the 2009 roster, not the 2003-2008 rosters. They may still be a year or so away from relevance, but the AL Central is somewhat weak this year.
March 31st, 2009 at 12:17 pm
Nobody is out of this world strong, but any of the 5 teams could win the division. The Royals are the least likely, but the young kids they have make it seem possible on the last day of March.
March 31st, 2009 at 12:18 pm
If they are top 5 in both, than 88 wins would be underachieving. But I agree, they are the team to beat IMO.
March 31st, 2009 at 12:19 pm
TBL- Do you even watch baseball! Again a joke. This is horrible. Can you link me your projections from last year?
March 31st, 2009 at 12:20 pm
butters- Didn’t Alexi Ramirez get hurt or something? Or am I imagining things?
March 31st, 2009 at 12:22 pm
Indians #3 starter is Carl Pavano. Do you want the names of their 4th and 5th starters before you change your predictions?
March 31st, 2009 at 12:22 pm
Tampa-I can’t remember the order, but I think he had the Twins winning the division. I also think he had the sox finishing below the Royals.
March 31st, 2009 at 12:23 pm
Tigers release Sheffield today. This is a good development as it will give more at bats to Marcus Thames and perhaps get Carlos Guillen out of the outfield and into the DH role.
Tigers
Indians
White Sox
Twins
Royals
March 31st, 2009 at 12:23 pm
Cosmo, doesn’t look like anything major for Ramirez.
TBL I’d watch out, Tampa is going to hunt you down for this.
March 31st, 2009 at 12:24 pm
haven’t been following the central as much this year, how’s the indian’s pitching look?
March 31st, 2009 at 12:24 pm
Saw him smoke a bases loaded double on Saturday and haven’t heard anything since so I think he’ll be fine…if he can field his position like they say dude could be an All-Star shortstop if he keeps hitting like he did in the second half last season (backing up Jeter of course even though Cap’n Jetes has all the range of Hayden Christenson)
March 31st, 2009 at 12:25 pm
Twins
Tigers
Indians
Royals
White Sox
March 31st, 2009 at 12:26 pm
pkiguy you are a bastard.
I honestly think TBL picked the Indians so he could post that picture.
March 31st, 2009 at 12:27 pm
Going to have a big year.
/fantasy team hopes’d
March 31st, 2009 at 12:32 pm
C’mon Tampa. Half your team belongs at shady acres nursing home.
March 31st, 2009 at 12:43 pm
best post evar!!!
March 31st, 2009 at 12:45 pm
This division is wide open. And I like what the Royals are doing though they’re probably a year or two away.
The Twins’s starting staff is pretty solid. Liriano, Baker, Blackburn, Slowey, and Perkins. It’s true that unless Liriano regains his form there’s not really a clear #1, but top to bottom it’s one of the best staffs in the majors. And you have Nathan in the 9th.
I don’t think scoring will be as big an issue this year. Crede looks healthy, Delmon Young should do better (hard not to), and either Span or Gomez is going to excel.
I don’t understand the love for the Indians apart from Sizemore. Hafner still hasn’t hit well this spring and Garko hasn’t shown any power. There’s no way Lee repeats last year and Carmona is going to have to have a big comeback. I think they finish 3rd at best.
Detroit will only go as far their pitching will take them which is probably not very far.
The White Sox seem like the most complete team in the division (pitching and hitting) but for some reason I’m just not sold.
Twins
White Sox
Detroit
Indians
Royals (though they will be competitive thru the AS Break)
March 31st, 2009 at 12:50 pm
The Indians have exactly zero pitching depth, and Travis Hafner suddenly sucks. I don’t get the big deal. I think Detroit has a firesale starting at the all-star break. Chicago and KC are both better than they were last year, while the Twins are about the same. Still…
Twins
White Sox
Royals
Indians
Tigers
March 31st, 2009 at 12:53 pm
but any of the 5 teams could win the division.
Which is why the PECOTA and CHONE projections are not all that out of this world. That they only won between 56 and 75 games the past 5 years is immaterial to the fact that they have different players (like, no Mark Grudzielanek, just as an example) and that no other team in the division really materially improved.
March 31st, 2009 at 12:54 pm
Pkiguy- Remember when Thome hit the game winning HR in the one game playoff last season?
March 31st, 2009 at 1:00 pm
you do realize the indians were the best team in baseball in the second half right?
they get a cy young candidate in fausto back, who has devastating stuff. cliff lee who, while he won’t have a season like last year, will be fine, good defense, speed and power, stacked up their bullpen and get their most important player in victor martinez back.
they’re the best team on paper, because they don’t have any glaring holes. the tigers, twins and white sox all do. they’re not the best team EVAR, but they’re the class of the division.
plus rooting for the twins, white sox and tigers is akin to killing your own children.
March 31st, 2009 at 1:04 pm
Twins have the best defense and pitching in the division, so I’ll take them.
March 31st, 2009 at 1:05 pm
You do realize Cleveland has AIDS right? Discuss.
March 31st, 2009 at 1:07 pm
I forget which one it is but over the past 5 or so seasons the White Sox have won on average 8.5 more games than they were projected to…that really is my only hope for this season (that and like was said before a division with no 97 win team in it)
March 31st, 2009 at 1:24 pm
Carmona and Lee both drop back to reality this year, Hafner continues his decline into abyss. Cleveland returns to “mistake by the lake” form.
Rooting for anything in Cleveland is like rooting for the Russians in the Olympics.
March 31st, 2009 at 1:27 pm
March 31st, 2009 at 1:29 pm
You realize that the Indians have the best record in baseball of any team in the last 5 years when they are out of contention. It is Wedge’s specialty.
March 31st, 2009 at 1:36 pm
michigan sucks.
March 31st, 2009 at 1:43 pm
today is one of those days that would be fun if maggs were here (the others, not so much)
March 31st, 2009 at 1:48 pm
Ohio is worthless.
March 31st, 2009 at 1:50 pm
I have no comeback Tampa. Well played sir
March 31st, 2009 at 1:50 pm
Ohio is a worthless, cousin-loving, piece of crap.
March 31st, 2009 at 1:52 pm
This site sucks ass today. Keep getting errors.
March 31st, 2009 at 1:56 pm
every day is one of those days that would be fun if jpg were not here
sure would. I hate that jpg guy too
/Chelsea Kris’d
March 31st, 2009 at 1:59 pm
jpg, jpq…whatever…it is all the same douche.
March 31st, 2009 at 2:06 pm
jpg, jpq…whatever…it is all the same douche.
first of all, jizzbag, I don’t give a fuck about Ohio or Michigan (or you). I made a comment about maggs, so unless you are the new him, which I doubt because even though he is nuts, he is intelligent (you don’t seem to be), then just stfu.
March 31st, 2009 at 2:12 pm
jizzbag….ha ha ha. that is hilarious, in a junior high school kind of way.
List of great Buffalo playoff moments:
1. Comeback against the Oilers with with Jim Kelly on the bench. The overrated bitch.
2. Brett Hull in the crease.
3. Music City Miracle.
March 31st, 2009 at 2:13 pm
wow. 2 days in a row JPQ has told someone to stfu
March 31st, 2009 at 2:15 pm
hey now Chelsea. The Machine Gun is not overrated
March 31st, 2009 at 2:16 pm
douche/jizzbag = both junior high. went to your level. don’t flatter yourself, I could care less what you write about Buffalo. I’ve seen it all. could care less
/fight over
irish: Who was yesterday? I don’t even remember?
March 31st, 2009 at 2:21 pm
moleman
March 31st, 2009 at 2:24 pm
irish: I thought what he said about Detroit and Jesus was a little too over the line (I’m not even religious, but thought it was waay rude.
I guess maybe I’m getting a little too much like maggs w/ the stfu’s. I’ll tone it down. Guess I didn’t like this clown calling me a douche out of the blue
March 31st, 2009 at 2:25 pm
i’ll stick up for chelsea here…he’s smart and knows what he’s talking about. he’s just a michigan version of me…and hates ohio based on principle.
March 31st, 2009 at 2:26 pm
I guess you are also forgetting Carlos Quinten for the Sox. With a solid pitching staff, both starters and the pen, I think the White Sox take this division.
March 31st, 2009 at 2:26 pm
Let’s not get too carried away today, JPQ.
March 31st, 2009 at 2:29 pm
what solid pitching staff? they had their once every three years spurt of decency and will undoubtedly revert back to their cousin-fucking mean.
March 31st, 2009 at 2:51 pm
Whatever happened to Maggs?
March 31st, 2009 at 3:00 pm
floyd, danks, and buerhle. The bullpen is good with dotel and jenks. I don’t think the Tribe has depth like that.
March 31st, 2009 at 3:06 pm
tribe bullpen is much deeper…betancourt, perez, kerry wood, meloan, joe smith, jensen lewis are all top ‘pen arms.
i agree on the starters tho, that’s the tribe’s big weakness, but i think it has more upside than say, the tiger’s D/pitching, the twins’ O and white sox complete lack of a soul.
pavano is going to have a good year (gut feeling…these low risk/reward, one year deals always get a good year of production before moving onto their next huge contract) and reyes and lewis have a ton of talent.
of course, im a massive homer so…
March 31st, 2009 at 3:24 pm
The Tribe does have talent in the back end of the bullpen, but if any were really that good, then why go out and get someone like Wood? They weren’t good enough to be the closer in the past, which leads me to believe that something is missing. The Tribe is not winning that division. The Twins were close last year, and they only improved (Liriano for the year). The Tigers should be much more competative than the past too.
March 31st, 2009 at 3:43 pm
they got wood (heehee) because he was a pretty solid closer and the indians would actually have been in contention in the AL Central last year if not for joe borowski’s absolute sucksplosion at the beginning of the year, at one point blowing 5 saves in a 2 weeks span.
and some guys just aren’t meant to be closers, that’s not a knock on them if they’re good set up guys.
i like the tigers a lot less than i did a month ago. that pitching is just horrendoes and their defense isn’t much better than it was last year, especially once everett gets hurt (because we all know he will). the twins are decent tho, but they need mauer to be healthy to have any offense outside of morneau.