Your Mock Draft Winner: NFL Network’s Mike Mayock
Media Gossip/Musings, NFL Draft April 27th. 2009, 1:15pm
Saturday morning, when we posted our Mock Draft, we also linked to about a dozen prognosticators: DMN, Union Trib, National Football Post, AJC, Kiper, Four guys at NFL.com, McShay, the kid who thinks he’s better than Kiper, Peter King, Don Banks, these five guys at CBS Sports, and Scout.com How’d we stack up compared to them?
By our calculations, Mayock was victorious. A quick note about his mock draft: By 11 am, when our post went up, we hadn’t seen Mayock’s mock draft. So we don’t know the exact time it went up. While we don’t think there’s any chicanery at play, we just wanted to point that out. Also, for scoring purposes – 1 point was given to anyone who correctly nailed the pick exactly; .5 was given to those who had Tampa taking QB Josh Freeman, even though he went at 17 instead of 19, as many predicted.
Mike Mayock (NFL Network): 10-32
Mel Kiper: 8.5-32
Ours: 8.5-32
National Football Post: 8.5-32
Gosselin (DMN): 8-32
Don Banks (SI): 7-32
Union-Trib: 7-32
The kid who claimed to have beaten Kiper in year’s past: 7-32
Todd McShay 6-32
Peter King 5.5-32
[UPDATE!] As expected, this post triggered a flurry of emails. Three that stand out: According to an emailer, Nolan Nawrocki over at Pro Football Weekly trumped Mayock’s score; Dan Pompei at the Chicago Tribune also hit double figures; and Shawn Zobel (aka, the kid who claims he’s better than Kiper) said that he only posted his final mock draft on his blog (not under the mock draft on his website, for whatever reason), and he too claims he beat Kiper.
39 Responses to “Your Mock Draft Winner: NFL Network’s Mike Mayock”
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April 27th, 2009 at 1:18 pm
TBL – Can you get a full copy of McShay’s first or even seven round mock? That link is only to his top 16 and you’ve got to be an Insider, which I refuse to pay for.
April 27th, 2009 at 1:18 pm
Mayock is the man. That move by the Raiders messed up a lot of mock drafts.
April 27th, 2009 at 1:19 pm
The kid who claimed to have beaten Kiper in year’s past: 7-32
FAIL
April 27th, 2009 at 1:20 pm
I want to make this point: I understand the uncertainty of the draft. Trades are made, teams reach, etc. But when your JOB, your 40-hour-a-week/12-months of the year PROFESSION is to analyze players and NFL team needs and you are incorrect 60, 70, 80 or 90 percent of the time, how are you still employed?
April 27th, 2009 at 1:30 pm
mayock is fantastic and is just one of many reasons the nfl network rocks.
eff bspn!
April 27th, 2009 at 1:32 pm
But when your JOB, your 40-hour-a-week/12-months of the year PROFESSION is to analyze players and NFL team needs and you are incorrect 60, 70, 80 or 90 percent of the time, how are you still employed?
chaos theory. Stock market, weather patterns, and the NFL Draft all have MILLIONS OF INITIAL CONDITIONS.
/physics major’d
April 27th, 2009 at 1:34 pm
I correctly called their stupidity. I will now perform a DDP self high-five:
http://thebiglead.com/?p=13483
April 27th, 2009 at 1:41 pm
Never heard of him.
/Time Warner subscriber
April 27th, 2009 at 1:44 pm
mcshay round 2:
1. (33) Detroit Lions Larry English DE/OLB Northern Illinois
2. (34) New England (from Kansas City) Darius Butler CB Connecticut
3. (35) St. Louis Rams James Laurinaitis ILB Ohio State
4. (36) Cleveland Browns Paul Kruger* OLB Utah
5. (37) Seattle Seahawks William Beatty OT Connecticut
6. (38) Cincinnati Bengals Eric Wood C Louisville
7. (39) Jacksonville Jaguars Alphonso Smith CB Wake Forest
8. (40) Oakland Raiders Evander Hood DT Missouri
9. (41) Green Bay Packers Connor Barwin OLB Cincinnati
10. (42) Buffalo Bills Alex Mack C California
11. (43) San Francisco 49ers Louis Delmas S Western Michigan
12. (44) Miami Dolphins (from Washington) Mohamed Massaquoi WR Georgia
13. (45) New York Giants (from New Orleans) Clint Sintim SLB Virginia
14. (46) Houston Texans William Moore S Missouri
15. (47) New England Patriots (from San Diego) Rashad Johnson S Alabama
16. (48) Denver Broncos Ron Brace NT Boston College
17. (49) Chicago Bears Derrick Williams WR Penn State
18. (50) Cleveland Browns (from Tampa Bay) LeSean McCoy* RB Pittsburgh
19. (51) Dallas Cowboys Patrick Chung SS Oregon
20. (52) New York Jets Brandon Tate WR North Carolina
21. (53) Philadelphia Eagles Cornelius Ingram TE Florida
22. (54) Minnesota Vikings Phil Loadholt OT Oklahoma
23. (55) Atlanta Falcons Jarron Gilbert DT San Jose State
24. (56) Miami Dolphins Lawrence Sidbury DE Richmond
25. (57) Baltimore Ravens Sean Smith* CB Utah
26. (58) New England Patriots Cody Brown OLB Connecticut
27. (59) Carolina Panthers Michael Johnson DE Georgia Tech
28. (60) New York Giants Andre Brown RB NC State
29. (61) Indianapolis Colts Sen’Derrick Marks DT Auburn
30. (62) Tennessee Titans Andy Levitre OG/OT Oregon State
31. (63) Arizona Cardinals David Veikune DE Hawaii
32. (64) Pittsburgh Steelers D.J. Moore* CB Vanderbilt
April 27th, 2009 at 1:46 pm
mcshay 17-32 predictions
17. New York Jets (9-7): Josh Freeman, QB, Kansas State
18. Denver Broncos (from 9-7 CHI) (8-8): Everette Brown, DE, Florida State
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7): Brian Cushing, OLB, USC
20. Detroit Lions (from 9-7 DAL) (0-16): Peria Jerry, DT, Mississippi
21. Philadelphia Eagles (9-6-1): Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia
22. Minnesota Vikings (10-6): Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Maryland
23. New England Patriots (11-5): Clay Matthews, OLB, USC
24. Atlanta Falcons (11-5): Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Oklahoma State
25. Miami Dolphins (11-5): Vontae Davis, CB, Illinois
26. Baltimore Ravens (11-5): Kenny Britt, WR, Rutgers
27. Indianapolis Colts (12-4): Percy Harvin, WR, Florida
28. Buffalo Bills (from 12-4 CAR through Philadelphia) (7-9): Eben Britton, OT, Arizona
29. New York Giants (12-4): Hakeem Nicks, WR, North Carolina
30. Tennessee Titans (13-3): Rey Maualuga, ILB, USC
31. Arizona Cardinals (9-7): Donald Brown, RB, Connecticut
32. Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4): Max Unger, C, Oregon
April 27th, 2009 at 1:47 pm
Peter King in MMQB says he got 9 (8.5 on your scoring system) of 32 right…
April 27th, 2009 at 1:53 pm
http://www.nepatriotsdraft.com/2009/04/2009-undrafted-free-agent-signings-list.html
A list of UDFAs, if anyone is interested. Todd Boeckman to Bengals was intriguing to me, he could be in the mix for the #2 spot there.
April 27th, 2009 at 1:56 pm
Hunter Cantwell to Panthers…remember when Kiper was hyping this kid as a 1st round pick?
April 27th, 2009 at 1:58 pm
Thanks, TBL.
Man, McShay is terrible.
@ Badger – Certainly there are conditions. But, c’mon. This is the Draft, not the Stock Market or even weather (local weather people probably hit 10% of the time here in my market).
I mean, look at how off they are. Half the time they don’t even get the position right, let alone the actual player.
April 27th, 2009 at 1:58 pm
I think a much better way to evaluate them would be to take the player, what # pick he was, and compare the number that each analyst had him going at. The team that happened to draft a player seems less relevant.
April 27th, 2009 at 2:00 pm
TBL, I noticed you had someone else do the baseball post. Are you going to completely ignore the Sox sweeping the Yanks? Oh that’s right, I forgot Boston “isn’t worth mentioning” this season…
April 27th, 2009 at 2:00 pm
A list of UDFAs, if anyone is interested.
Oh, great, the Jets signed the Cleveland State b-ball player. Get ready for the next “Antonio Gates” hyperbole, coming from fearless leader and the NY media
Jets: TE J’Nathan Bullock (Cleveland State – Basketball)
April 27th, 2009 at 2:04 pm
Great job by Mayock, but man did I hate most of his commentary as I watched the NFL Network coverage whilst I still have that channel for a few more days. That was the guy on whom I posted who thought that corner from Western Michigan was the most aggressive he had ever seen play. No qualifiers either!
April 27th, 2009 at 2:07 pm
NDub,
Considering the best one only got about 30% of these right, I wouldn’t say there’s much hope of anyone doing better. There are countless variables and the fact that one strange pick (Raiders) or trade (Jets) can cause a domino effect is the fault of noone.
For instance, many people had the Chiefs taking Curry. By taking Jackson instead, Seattle takes Curry (who they believe to be the best player on their board) and bypasses Sanchez. The Raiders picking DHB causes both Crabtree and Maclin to fall to unexpected picks/teams.
This would be akin to holding College Basketball analysts accountable for doing poorly in an NCAA Tourney bracket.
April 27th, 2009 at 2:14 pm
Norwood should be able to make the Browns squad.
April 27th, 2009 at 2:16 pm
@Ndub
well no it isn’t, but (alert: geeky post ahead) the fact that you analyze every possible angle from every possible way a million times over, taking into account all possible factors (team’s need, draft history, talent in the draft, etc…) and all somebody needs to do is say Darrius Heyward Bey in the top 10 and everything is thrown off kilter.
The fact that Mayock sniffed 33 percent is pretty damn good IMO…
April 27th, 2009 at 2:18 pm
I found it quite humorous that Graham Harrell and Chase Daniel weren’t drafted. F’in system QB’s in the allergic to defense Big 12. Can I call McCoy and Bradford a bust right now?
April 27th, 2009 at 2:19 pm
shoulda refreshed, nice post NSR
April 27th, 2009 at 2:23 pm
Correctly predicting how good a player is going to be in the NFL is much more important than a mock draft.
April 27th, 2009 at 2:25 pm
NSR and Badger – But shouldn’t they comb over EVERY possible scenario and at least have an inkling (do some reporting, sniffing around, investigating into war rooms) that Oakland might take DH-B over Crabtree or Maclin? I mean, it’s their job to know things like this. They might believe that Crabtree is the best WR, best fit for Oakland at No. 7, but belief and reality are different things.
McShay’s yearly salary divided by how many picks he got first in the first round probably netted him like 30-50K per correct pick in his mock. That’s ridiculous.
I’m not expecting 32 correct picks, but 6, 7, 8 or 10? No, thanks. That’s not expert analysis at all.
April 27th, 2009 at 2:33 pm
Mayock is definitely one of my favorite NFL Network analysts. I like his analysis a lot better than Kiper’s.
April 27th, 2009 at 2:44 pm
eh, im willing to give them the benefit of the doubt. one fuckup in their top 5 and the rest just falls apart.
plus there’s no accounting for teams that run their draft all willy-nilly like the jags, broncos and raiders.
April 27th, 2009 at 2:48 pm
He’s not paid to be correct in which team will take which player. He’s paid to analyze prospects and identify team needs and make educated guesses on who will go where. More than anything, he’s paid to entertain and draw eyeballs to the .com and the TV, something he and Kiper do pretty well.
April 27th, 2009 at 2:51 pm
Todd McShay sucks. Glad Mel Beat his ass. Did anyone see Trey Wingo yell at McShay.” THATS NOT WHAT I ASKED!” Funny shit. That kid should take McShays place he has earned it, No?
April 27th, 2009 at 2:53 pm
these guys arent paid to get it 100% right. mcshay and kiper are tremendous at what they do.
April 27th, 2009 at 2:55 pm
fixed for accuracy.
mcshay would probably be better if he didn’t start his mock draft bukake 4 weeks before the playoffs started.
April 27th, 2009 at 2:59 pm
I like when they do their first 2010 mock in about a month.
April 27th, 2009 at 3:05 pm
I agree they are paid for more than just basically nailing a bullseye, but as Ndub said before…there analysis should yield certain needs. I understand variables throw things off, but there weren’t many variables before the Raiders. Shouldn’t they have good enough sources to know that might happen, and if they did get that right, they would have been in better shape to predict the rest (like even though Crabtree was the best available, he probably wasn’t going to a team before SF because of the need).
I can guess at who I think are the best players, and where they might land. I think what we are getting at is that these are pros, and they should do it better, and if they aren’t going to do it better, then they shouldn’t be compensated as much for it.
April 27th, 2009 at 3:10 pm
they’re not…they’re probably compensated for the pageviews and attention they bring to the network because the draft is so ridiculously popular.
i know it sucks, but lets face it, if it weren’t mcshay, it’d be someone else. the job of draft analyst is like hitting the lotto and mcshay was the lucky guy to strike it rich. he’s no more informed than any of the draft nuts that scour the forums and fanboards.
April 27th, 2009 at 3:24 pm
Most of you are right. I’m not saying they should be paid strictly by nailing the picks. I just want more accuracy.
And probably more than half of their checks, as spencer and others have said, comes from how many pageviews and “good TV” antics (ie. screaming at each other about who should go No. 1) they can conjure.
April 27th, 2009 at 3:25 pm
You are right, he is lucky to be in that position, but he has an extreme niche. I just think they should have more results. Anyone could have properly picked the top 4. So if you are only going to get 4 more correct the entire draft, that isn’t very impressive. Someone sitting on a blog and looking up a few needs of teams to get more correct than someone that I would imagine has more resources is pathetic. Especially considering the attention that ESPN gives the draft. They aren’t even close on the outcome, plus the analysis by Steve Young and Herm was horrible.
April 27th, 2009 at 4:29 pm
I found it quite humorous that Graham Harrell and Chase Daniel weren’t drafted. F’in system QB’s in the allergic to defense Big 12. Can I call McCoy and Bradford a bust right now?
It’s not like Texas/OK held OSU/Florida well below their season averages. But why even consider defensive efficiency or real stats when I can go off my “instincts”
April 27th, 2009 at 5:04 pm
Actually VYSausage, I’m going on the fact that of the top 12 highest passing yards total, 6 are from the Big 12, in fact not a single QB from a BCS school not in the B12 made the top 13.
So yeah, thats my “instinct.”
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/sortables?stat=pass&group=80&year=2008&sort=passyds
April 28th, 2009 at 12:20 am
Either you scored Peter King incorrectly or he is using two sheets. Which is it?
And that wondercabbage dude is FOS; you can’t have two different sheets online at the start of the draft and claim integrity. FAIL!