Across the pond this morning, the British Open got underway. With the first round nearly complete, 59-year-old Tom Watson is surprisingly atop the leaderboard. [For hardcore golf enthusiasts, we'll open tomorrow morning with a British Open liveblog; the Roundup will arrive at 9 a.m.] Our golf correspondent, Spencer Dieck, assesses the course, handicaps the field, and will try to finally nail a winner.

Turnberry (Ailsa course): Scotland’s answer to Pebble Beach, Turnberry is about as decorated a major venue as they come. Home of the famous Duel in the Sun in 1977 between Jack Nicklaus and Tom Watson (where the two best players in the world went toe to toe for the final two days), Turnberry hosts this year’s Open in what should be a glorious display of links golf. If recent trends hold, then Tiger Woods will win. The last two times the Open was at Turnberry, the No. 1 player in the world won (Greg Norman, Nick Price) and, while Watson’s win over Jack predated the ranking system in place, he was a 5-time winner so far that year, the reigning money leader and was already a major champion. So, chances are good Watson would’ve been No. 1 as well in 1977.

Now for the bad news – while Turnberry was arguably the easiest Open course on the rota, it’s been lengthened and the rough has been allowed to grow. That’s fine if the weather is nice, but wait, I just looked at the forecast and the weather is probably gonna suck. FANTASTIC.

Thanks, R&A … God forbid you actually realize that YOU’RE ON THE F-ING SCOTTISH COAST and the weather changes every two seconds. Long rough at an Open is just about the dumbest thing a course superintendant can superintend (see: Carnoustie, 1999). They can save face with some lucky sunshine, but just a little weather could make this an unmitigated disaster.

Tiger Woods: Rain … he’s won his last appearance before the Masters and US Open and proceeded to fizzle in both of those majors. Shine … he’s Tiger Woods. Rain … he’s never played Turnberry before this week. Shine … he’s Tiger Woods. Rain … those Gillette commercials are really lame and make Tiger look like an even bigger d-bag. Shine … you can see where this is going, right?

If the weather is good, Tiger wins by five strokes because he won’t have to hit driver. If there’s wind and rain … well … I have no idea what’ll happen.

Paddy Harrington: Three-peat anyone?

I’m not going to slam Paddy anymore than I already have but let’s just look at the facts – missed the cut in five of his last eight events with good fields, he’s going through swing changes, and isn’t very good to begin with (sorry, had to get that in there).

If he three-peats, I might actually have a seizure.

Monty!!!: Could Ms. Dangerfield be this year’s Greg Norman or will he fizzle in his, probable, last Open gasp? Smart money’s on fizzle. Speaking of money…

The Purse Sucks: For Americans at least. 4.2 million pounds sounds like a lot, right? Sure, it was the same as last year’s, but not so fast my friends. Last year that translated into $8.4 million, but now, after the economy’s 10-month suckathon, and it’s effect on exchange rates, that number is now down to around $6.76 million, or, to put that in perspective, about the same as a high-profile, non-major/Players/Quail Hollow/FedEx Cup event on the PGA Tour. If an American wins, he’ll probably see about $300k less than he would’ve last year. Poor golfers. So sad, so sad. I think we should get a collection going.

Who to Watch: Turnberry will reward smart, creative iron players and those who don’t find the crazy fescue and the greens will be a good bit slower than they normally are over here, so I’m a lot more willing to take guys with balky flatsticks (paging Mr. Garcia. Sergio, please come to the front desk).

The Young’ns: Sergio, AK, Mahan, O’Hair, McIlroy.

Martin Kaymer: The German Hunter Mahan, Kaymer is a guy who can destroy any course he sets his target on and is going for his third tourney win in a row. He’s proved he can win at a links course with his win against a decent field in last year’s Alfred Dunhill Links Whatchamacallit, so he’s someone to keep an eye on.

Darren Clarke: There’s a sentimental favorite every year, so why not Clarke this year? He’s the sharpest dresser on any golf tour and is beloved by everyone. Clarke’s seen some rough times in the past few years, so it’d be great to see the Irishman who ducked bullets in his living room as a kid give us a good showing.

Steve Stricker: Slow, relatively easy greens for a guy of Stricker’s putting abilities? Yikes. Won twice in a month and a half on the PGA Tour at ballstriker’s courses and has proven he can play in Scotland, so he’s someone to watch even if he’s the stereotypical, bore-you-to-tears, pro golfer.

Boo Weekley: Everyone’s favorite golfing redneck, Boo is finally getting healthy and has the iron game that always works well in Scotland. Despite being from BFE, Florida, Boo was built by God LeBron to play links golf.

Coverage: TNT/ABC – we’re in good hands for four days. Plus, the best part of the Open? Watching three-hours of golf before having to go to work.

But wait! There’s one HUGE problem here, a problem I had no idea even existed until this week. See, this will be my first Open where I have an available HD TV for my viewing pleasure. Unfortunately for all of us, but most importantly me, the Open IS NOT BROADCAST IN HD. Why? I have no idea, all I know is that this is dumb. Dumb, dumb, dumb, dumb, dumb.

Non-Tiger Winner: I’m feelin’ Europe-y. I like Ian Poulter and Paul Casey, but can’t pull the trigger. I like Martin Kaymer, but he’s too green and has missed the cut in four of the six majors he’s played. Paddy? Three in a row? That’d be like Steve Nash winning back to back MVP’s (wait, this actually happened…shit). Lee Westwood? Uh…no.

I’m going with Henrik Stenson. Who? The Terminator-glassed Swede who top 10′d three of the last four majors and won this year’s Players. He might not have the cache of some of the heavier hitters on tour, but this dude is a bona-fide top-5 player. That strong 3-wood he favors off the tee is the ideal weapon at a place like Turnberry and he has a penetrating ballflight (insert gay joke here) with his irons that’ll cut through the wind like a hot knife through butter.

Whatever. I’m not getting this right anyways. I like Stenson, but I’ll be rooting for Sergio and Mahan…and probably that tool Tiger as well. Gillette…pssh. Get a real sponsor, Eldrick. Stop embarrassing yourself.