reggie bush kim kardashianCommenter Jay, a native of the Bayou, on the Saints 2009 outlook.

Mandatory TBL Reference: Reggie Bush has broken up with Kim Kardashian.

Mandatory TBL Reference #2: Jeremy Shockey is still a douchebag. Now, on to the team.

When Last We Left Off: Drew Brees finished the 2008 season one completed pass – on the final play of the season! – short of the all-time single-season passing record. Brees’ quest was a rare source of pride for Saints fans. However, like the season when Dan Marino set the record, the team’s passing proficiency couldn’t make up for two blatant deficiencies. The team couldn’t run the ball with any consistency and the defense sucked. Sucked bad.

drew breesIs There a Reason for Optimism on Defense?: There are three reasons why Saints fans firmly believe that the defense will be better in 2009. Well, four, if you include “they can’t get any worse.” First, defensive coordinator Gary Gibbs is mercifully gone. Gibbs’ tenure with the team will be remembered for not getting pressure on the quarterback in spite of having two of the highest-paid defensive ends in the league (Will Smith and Charles Grant), and giving up more big plays than any other team, thanks partly to a disastrously bad secondary. His replacement, Gregg Williams, has a track record of consistently solid NFL defenses. But with the talent he inherited, he has his work cut out for him.

Second, there has been a major facelift in that horrible secondary. Josh Bullocks, or as Saints fans knew him, the worst coverage safety in the history of football, is gone. In addition, former free agent nightmare Jason David could only be a special teams performer if he even makes the team. Bullocks will be replaced by the ancient Darren Sharper, which, believe it or not, is a celebrated upgrade. And at cornerback, the Saints may have 4 serviceable players for literally the first time in their history in Jabari Greer, Malcolm Jenkins, Tracy Porter, and Randall Gay.

Finally, the Saints were able to keep MLB Jonathan Vilma. Vilma reclaimed his role as a top-flight 3-4 middle linebacker after escaping from the Jets’ 4-3 Hell. Losing Vilma would have been a blow they may not have recovered from. Vilma should have been a Pro Bowler last year, and along with emerging star Sedrick Ellis, the Saints should be solid inside.

In Contrast, Why the Saints Still Suck on Defense: Reason #1 is the linebacking corps. Vilma is the man inside, and Scott Fujita has been a solid player since coming over as a free agent. After that, the Saints have a bunch of linebackers who, to be completely honest, would struggle to make any other NFL roster. The Saints made two futile efforts to upgrade the corps: veteran Dan Morgan retired and left them at the altar for the second year in a row, and rookie Stanley Arnoux didn’t even make it to training camp without suffering a season-ending injury. Scott Shanle may amazingly enter his fourth season as the temporary “stop-gap” weakside linebacker.

Secondly, Will Smith and Charles Grant start the season on four-game suspensions from last year’s “Star Caps” controversy. It’s hard to get pressure on the opposing quarterback when your starting DEs are gone for the first quarter of the season. However, this may be a blessing in disguise, as they play like overpaid pieces of crap anyway. Former Jaguars Bobby McCray and Paul Spicer may actually turn into upgrades at the position.

Do the Saints Have an Every-Down RB on the Roster: Reggie Bush? Of course not. That leaves “Lucky” Pierre Thomas. Some people believe he can do it, but only has two career games with more than 16 carries. The only other returning option is Mike Bell, who is best known for being one of the few Broncos RBs under Mike Shanahan who couldn’t run for 1,000 yards. If they can’t, the only other options are a bunch of undrafted free agent short-yardage backs.

The Rest of the Offense: Everybody knows this part of the team, so let’s just gloss over it. Brees throws for a ton of yards. They have a solid and deep core of pass catchers that includes Marques Colston, Jeremy Shockey, Reggie Bush, and Lance Moore. Their offensive line is above average, with Jahri Evans and Carl Nicks making up the most underrated pair of starting guards in the league. Jammal Brown is a bit overrated, however, but is still a solid left tackle.

Sobering Statistics Too Bad to Ignore:
0-Number of touchdowns from Jeremy Shockey last year.
1 -Number of wins during the Payton/Brees era when traling after the third quarter.
3.7 -Lifetime yards per carry for Reggie Bush.
10 -Number of games missed by Reggie Bush the last two years.
16 – Number of starts missed by Marques Colston the last three years because of injury.

Potential Sleepers: The Saints love last year’s 7th round draft pick WR Adrian Arrington. He was on IR last year, and is hurt so far in camp. But if he can get healthy, he could move up the depth chart quickly. Former undrafted rookie LB Jo-Lonn Dunbar made a surprising contribution last year, and Saints fans are praying that he (or anybody) can start over Scott Shanle. And of the big undrafted RBs on the roster, second year guy Lynell Hamilton will be the first to get to prove himself.

And don’t turn your nose at this part of the preview and consider it wishful thinking. We’re talking about a coach in Sean Payton who will let anyone play. Consider Colston, Pierre Thomas, and Lance Moore, for example. The undrafted Thomas made the team over drafted RB Antonio Pittman in 2007, and Colston and Moore are more productive than first round pick Robert Meachem and second round pick Devery Henderson.

Draft: The Saints picked four players in the 2009 Draft. One’s out for the year. One’s a punter. That leaves first-round cornerback Malcolm Jenkins and fourth-round safety Chip Vaughn. If those two guys aren’t contributors, it’s a lost draft class.

Schedule: Like the rest of the division, they draw the entire NFC East AND AFC East. That’s a bitch of a schedule. However, they also draw the 4th place schedule, so they get to feast on the Lions and Rams. Predicting wins is often an exercise in futility. But if the Saints can beat the Lions, Rams, Jets, and Bills, sweep the Bucs, and split with the Falcons and Panthers, they’re a .500 team.

2009 Prediction: Last year the Falcons broke tradition by not going from worst to first in the NFC South, but they still made the playoffs. There are a lot of reasons to think that the Saints will do that too, with all of their offensive weapons. If Gregg Williams is a miracle worker, this team competes for the NFC Championship. If he’s just adequate (my most likely scenario), they’re a 9-7 wild card team.

2009 NFL Previews

NFC East: Dallas Cowboys | Philadelphia Eagles | New York Giants | Washington Redskins

NFC North: Chicago Bears | Detroit Lions | Minnesota Vikings | Green Bay Packers

NFL South: Tampa Bay Bucs | Atlanta Falcons