Boston Fans Were Crying About The NBA Draft With Good Reason: Prognosis Negative.
Uncategorized May 31st. 2007, 6:35pm
We spent a large portion of last night devouring Celtic blog, and scouring the Herald and Globe. Then we read Chad Ford. Here’s the conclusion: nobody has a damn clue what the Celtics are going to do in the draft.
Here’s how we (that’s us and our faithful readers) think the first four picks will shake out, assuming there are no trades, and the situations like Zach Randolph, Rashard Lewis, and the Sonics organization as a whole are sorted out: Oden, Durant, Conley, Horford. [We all decided Tuesday that the Hawks are making a mistake and should take Brandan Wright, and then grab Acie Law at 11.]
Which leads us to the Celtics, the biggest mess in the NBA. Clusterfuck is an understatment. The Knicks, financially are in ruins, but the pieces actually fit in a remotely cogent manner. Not the case with the Celtics. Here’s what they’ve got: a great small forward, a pretty good small forward, a bunch of athletic shooting guards who can’t shoot, a combo guard to run point, and a bunch of tweeners up front. We haven’t seen anything in shambles like this since that morning Britney Spears shaved her head.
Repeat after us: Boston will not take Yi Jianlian. Danny Ainge and Doc Rivers are nearly out of time, and won’t have three years for him to pan out. Where to look? If you’re confident the C’s can win with two space-eating 6-10 guys in the middle (Jefferson, Perkins), then we’ll buy it. Pierce is set at the three, and he’s backed up by Wally (absurd logic; two very expensive players at the same position), and the backcourt is shaky with Rajon Rondo and Delonte West, neither of whom shoots well. Dunk champ Gerald Green and Tony Allen are scoring athletes … without a position.
Initially, we had Roy Hibbert pegged for the Celtics. Then you could slide Jefferson/Perkins to power forward, trade the other, and have Ryan Gomes as the backup. Then Hibbert went back to Georgetown, leaving the likes of Joakim Noah, Washington’s Spencer Hawes, and a bunch of tall Euros. So then you think - assuming Conley’s gone - what about a shooting guard? Corey Brewer is fantastic, but most folks are pegging him to be a small forward in the Pippen mold. Nick Young? seems too high for him.
Here are a couple stats to throw into the argument: Boston had the second worst shooting percentage in the NBA, and was sixth worst in assists. They also turned the ball over at an alarming rate - sixth most in the league. This leads us to believe they’ll take a guard.
We’ll offer two solutions and toss it to you: 1) blow this team up; trade any/everyone and start over or 2) draft the best player on the board and take Corey Brewer. He usually guarded the opponent’s best player, and shut down Mike Conley in the National Championship.
37 Responses to “Boston Fans Were Crying About The NBA Draft With Good Reason: Prognosis Negative.”
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May 31st, 2007 at 6:44 pm
There will be some sort of maneuvering by the Celtics, Danny does some sort of trade each year with the drafts.
And why won’t they draft Yi, he’s the closest thing to an overrated white player available in this draft. And Danny loves accumulating those.
I think you need to give Jefferson a bit more credit, he did average 20 12 the last two months of the season.
May 31st, 2007 at 6:55 pm
i don’t know if brewer would be the right fit. he’s a great player, better defender, but probably not a true scorer. can he score 30? sure. can he score 30 often? probably not. who knows, though. maybe the celts don’t need a true scorer with the No. 5.
if you’re between Yi and Noah, Boston will fuck it up and take Yi — a three-year project who Ainge might think is an instant threat. Noah is your experienced player who might not be the high risk/high reward player that Yi is, but he’s a safe pick.
so what does Boston do? fuck it. start from scratch. the celtics are a sunk ship.
May 31st, 2007 at 6:58 pm
yea, you are way underestimating jefferson, who will be an all-star next year if he stays healthy.
i hope you’re right about Yi. Drafting him would be one of the worst blunders Ainge has ever made, and that’s saying a lot.
i like brewer. i like him better than horford even. hopefully ainge will grab him and then go for a point guard with the 32 pick, like that jared jordan kid everyone’s talking about.
of course there’s just as a good a chance he makes a trade. Some kind of package for Gasol would be nice, though he wouldn’t do much for our interior defense.
May 31st, 2007 at 7:01 pm
also, tony allen, before his unfortunate injury, was our best defender. he can score, too, though he probably won’t have the same burst now that he’s had surgery.
and they’re not a sunk ship yet. they got fucked royally last year with injuries. this draft will make or break them, though.
May 31st, 2007 at 7:03 pm
I agree with Simon. Compare Howard and Jefferson’s numbers without looking at the names and it’s hard to differentiate the two.
The problem with the Celtics is that the pieces just don’t fit. I think Rondo could be an above-average PG (in Andre Miller’s class), but he has to play with a SG that can shoot/score. Likewise Jefferson needs another post to play alongside and guard the opponent’s best big guy to keep him out of foul trouble.
I really don’t think they’re that far off though. If I were them, I’d trade the pick and a couple other young guys for either a sold two or solid five.
May 31st, 2007 at 7:04 pm
I think they take Brewer. He’ll fit nicely next to Pierce and he actually cares about defense.
May 31st, 2007 at 7:37 pm
Love the comments, fellas, but can we please not compare DWIGHT HOWARD to Al Jefferson? Jefferson only had strong stats because the Celtics were tanking, and Pierce was sidelined for the first 11 games.
Howard’s a monster. Jefferson has the potential to be a monster … but he’s not there yet. Their #’s for the first three seasons aren’t comparable.
May 31st, 2007 at 7:40 pm
It’s kind of criminal how much you glossed over Al Jefferson…have you seen the Celtics play? He’s clearly the most valuable commodity on that team (more so than a middle-aged Pierce and his huge contract).
But yes, they are pretty much screwed by being at #5, and to be honest the way that team stacks up they more or less needed to be 1 or 2 to NOT be screwed.
May 31st, 2007 at 7:46 pm
Al J is a legit PF, top three in the weak Eastern Conference. Tony Allen and Rondo make an excellent defensive backcourt, and Allen can score as well. Peirce has 3 locked, get rid of Wally. I think the Celts have to make serious moves prior to or on draft day. I am guessing they could get 1 of the big 3 from Indiana, Minnesota, or Phoenix with a combo of Green/Wally/Draft Picks as long as the two teams exchange some expiring contracts. Or maybe I am just PRAYING as watching this team be miserable for 17 of 20 years has been killing me.
May 31st, 2007 at 7:47 pm
jefferson was hurt for a large chunk of his first two seasons and didn’t become totally healthy until well into last season. he is already a better offensive player than howard. defensively, he needs a lot of work.
and pierce wasn’t sidelined the first 11 games, dude. he went down on Dec. 11 and missed the next 24 games.
May 31st, 2007 at 7:53 pm
Please take Yi, please take Yi, please take Yi…
May 31st, 2007 at 8:10 pm
Since Ainge’s mission in life is to turn the Celtics into the Atlanta Hawks, Boston will continue to load up at forward and take Horford or Brewer… fuck, they might even take SeanWilliams just because Ainge played with a equally devoted toker in Robert Parrish and he worked out pretty well (just try to get inside the head of Ainge sometime - this is after all, the same guy who declared the Celtics to be a “playoff team right now” ten minutes after getting shafted at this year’s Draft Lottery).
May 31st, 2007 at 8:11 pm
Whoops. Meant Pierce missed the LAST 11 games.
http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/players/3253/gamelog;_ylt=AqvlITwuAEoirRt9ZzsOk_ikvLYF
I’m not down on Jefferson … but I’m taking Dwight Howard over him in a heartbeat. Wouldn’t even give it a second thought. If Jefferson a better offensive player than him? Remains to be seen.
May 31st, 2007 at 8:16 pm
While I wouldn’t compare Howard to Jefferson, or vice versa they are completely different players you do vastly underestimate him. Howard right now is the better all around player, but Jefferson clearly has more offensive moves than Howard does, and much more touch.
And correction on Jefferson putting up big numbers when the Celtics were tanking, when Pierce got back from injury he put up big numbers and they were winning half their games. When the Celtics went into tank mode they made up a knee injury on him so he could sit out, specifically so they wouldn’t win games.
However, the rest of their team is spare parts that could be shipped out without anyone really caring.
Rondo can’t shoot at all.
Allen is overly sporadic, same goes with Green.
Perkins can’t hit a layup and is a very poor man’s Charles Oakley.
Gomes is a nice bench player, but that’s it.
West can’t run an effective point and would be best suited as a scoring threat off the bench.
In other words a lot of tinkering needs to be done.
May 31st, 2007 at 8:17 pm
howard gets all his offense from put backs and dunks, while jefferson has a wide range of post moves AND a short range jumper. his post moves occasionally remind me of kevin mchale.
there is absolutely no question that jefferson, right now, is a more versatile offensive player than dwight howard.
May 31st, 2007 at 8:19 pm
Danny … i really think you’re dreaming about just ‘getting rid of Wally.’
He’s making $12 million next year. It’s not Allan Houston-bad, but if he has another shitty season, he’ll be drifting close. I’d imagine whoever takes Wally would want the Celtics No. 1 next year, as well as this year … and can you honestly live with this roster?
SF is the most populated position in the league. Until Green can regularly hit 45% from the field and 35% from three (consistently), he’s going to have trouble cracking a rotation.
May 31st, 2007 at 8:20 pm
I think we are all in agreement that Danny Ainge is retarded. When Rick Carlisle (hugely underrated and a defensive minded coach) came on the market i was ready to sacrifice a lamb and/or virgin to land him. Instead we extend Doc’s deal. Doc couldn’t coach a biddy team. I think the makings might be there for a playoff team with a different coach and a different mentality. Part of the issue is Ainge having no idea what direction he wants to take the team, and changing the direction of it every year. He keeps Doc around just to make the media happy so people don’t call him out for being retarded.
F-it, draft the China man. Corey Brewer or trading the pick makes the most sense but whatever. Why not trade it so Doc dosen’t have another player to jerk around and change minutes with. Prolly the worst thing for the team is having another player. I could go on and on. Watching or discussing the Celtics is like arsenic to my soul at this point.
May 31st, 2007 at 8:21 pm
Pierce was back at full steam from Valentine’s day to March 28th, look at Big Al’s numbers during that period and their W-L totals.
http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/players/3832/gamelog;_ylt=AqQsgkkYXQf0CsYeeXn23jmkvLYF
May 31st, 2007 at 8:22 pm
Wally isn’t going anywhere but Salary Dump land. He stinks and everybody knows it. Well except for maybe Danny Ainge.
May 31st, 2007 at 8:38 pm
Funny how everyone is a Yi expert all of a sudden. Let’s be honest: almost nobody here has actually seen him play, and the sites who have (nbadraft.net, draftexpress, etc.) all rate him highly. People did the same thing when Nowitzki got picked. I’m not saying Yi will be anything close to Dirk, but it does draw a comparable analogy: Yi is to Dirk as Noah is to Tractor Traylor.
May 31st, 2007 at 8:40 pm
Personally, I dislike the overwhelmingly belief that Jefferson is on the brink of elite status, which a lot of commentors are suggesting. Jefferson is a very, very good four, but c’mon. You realize that when the Hornets were injury plagued earlier this season, Rasual Butler was routinely putting up 15-20 ppg, for much of Dec. and Jan? Now, don’t get me wrong, Rasual’s not a bad player. He’d even likely get some run on most good teams. But I feel like his numbers, like Al J’s, were padded by the depletion of talent on his own team.
May 31st, 2007 at 8:46 pm
Jefferson is a beast. He commands a double in the post. Noah would be the best pick if they hold still. Ainge needs to shake things up though to to anything valuable. I hope they take Yi or Aaron Grey. That would be pricless.
May 31st, 2007 at 8:47 pm
Hakeem, the only one out during the majority of Jefferson’s good play was Wally and Theo Ratliff, and they both stink.
I’m not saying I think Al Jeff will ever be the #1 on a championship team, but he could be a legit #2 in the not so distant future.
May 31st, 2007 at 8:50 pm
If I were a Celtics Fan right now I would probably jump to the Kinicks wagon, quick. Seriously, we all thought Thomas did a bad job running a team, but Ainge is reaching new levels.
Jefferson, Rondo and Pierce can coexist toghether and they all ball. The rest of the team is a bunch of stiffs. I am on the blow it up bandwagon just to get the team right. There is no way they come close to the playoffs next year, so why try.
GO KNICKS!!!!!
May 31st, 2007 at 8:54 pm
Without looking, what would you guys guess are Howards stats last year?
Well here they are: 17.6ppg-12.3rpg-1.9bpg He also put up a 59% Ft mark and turned the ball over a whopping 4 times a game.
Jefferson: 16ppg (20ppg post all-star)-11rpg-1.7bpg-68%FT-2to/pg
I don’t think Howard is as elite as we think. Well, not yet anyway. I’d take him over Jefferson, too. Just not as quickly as you would.
May 31st, 2007 at 9:03 pm
actually jefferson is more of a center/forward hybrid, while howard is more of a pure center, so we could be comparing apples and oranges here, or at least apples and pears. either way, there is very little to howard’s offensive game.
as for the others:
green is raw as hell but has all the physical talent in the world. he would be a useful trading chip, but i’d be okay with holding on to him.
rondo cannot shoot for shit, but he’s an awesome defender. he can also rebound exceptionally well for a point guard, which is why i think ainge is going to hold onto him and hope he gets his jumper straightened out.
perkins is danny fortson.
gomes is actually pretty good. probably a borderline starter or bench player
west is a shooting guard with a nice jump shot who hustles, finishes well, and at least tries to play defense.
and this team is NOT as fucked up as the knicks, dude. wait until they sign vince carter to a $90 million contract and team him up with marbury and francis. then tell me which team is fucked up.
May 31st, 2007 at 9:07 pm
Yi is the only player left that is a legit difference maker.They have to draft him.Al Jefferson is becoming a great player.Gerald Green will be a star.Perkins will be a very good center.These are the players that have to stay if this team is to have any future.The paul pierce era is over and it was a spectacular failure.The celtics saw other homosexual athletes like magic johnson and isaiah thomas thrive but Boston is not as conducive to gay atjletes as say hollywood and motown.Thats why pierce was stabbed outside that gay bar a few years ago.Trade him for pau gasol and draft yi and in three years we have a championship in beantown….beantown!
May 31st, 2007 at 9:17 pm
Dwight Howard, surrounded by absolute excrement, got the Magic to the postseason. He’s one of the premiere shot-blockers in the league. Alters many more. You take defense all the time.
May 31st, 2007 at 9:35 pm
I don’t think I would rely on “well, they got to the playoffs in the Eastern Conference” as the basis for any argument.
May 31st, 2007 at 9:41 pm
Lotsa Celtic fans come here I see… while I agree that TBL has vastly underrated Al Jeff, I would still take sticker dunk Howard over him. I would love to send Pierce and whoever else (except Jefferson) to LA for Kobe, but that would never happen, so… I have no idea what they should do with this pick. I would say trade it, but Ainge did that last year and all we got was Sabby Telfair and his guns, and not the ROY. I think we should take Brewer, get rid of Wally if we can and get rid of Delonte West (my buddy works at a highway gas station and D West rolled in there one day, at first my buddy didnt know who he was and asked him if he had some weed and Delonte threw him a 20 sack of danks… this guy is gonna get busted for possesion one day I know it) and try to pull of something like the Wiz did in getting Caron Butler. Then again it may not matter what they do, giving Doc that extension pretty much killed us for next year already. How did that guy win coach of the year in Orlando? Does anybody know?
May 31st, 2007 at 10:49 pm
I don’t think the Celtics situation is as bad as you make it out to be. Al Jefferson is a GREAT low post presence who’s only going to improve. They’ve got young guys who were thrown into the fire and came out ok in spite of the losses. Throw in a healthy Paul Pierce and Corey Brewer with the 5th pick and this is a team that can contend for one of the bottom playoff spots. It would have been great to get Oden or Durant, but the world is not coming to an end without those two. They’ve got an expiring contract (Ratliff), a decent number of draft picks now and in the future and young talent. Deal Green, Gomes, pick(s) and Ratliff and you could get some quality talent in return.
June 1st, 2007 at 12:10 am
The take of another Celtics fan:
– So long as he remains healthy, Al Jefferson will get 20-12 this season. Too bad he doesn’t play a lick of defense.
– If Paul Pierce demanded a trade tomorrow, a fair share of Celtics fans wouldn’t blame him one bit. He’s suffered through this crap for years, and frankly, he deserved better.
– Rondo is underrated, and one of the only pieces they have worth keeping. There are plenty of NBA players that develop a jumpshot once they hit the pros, and it’s worth giving him another chance.
– Wally, Green and Allen: two out of three need to go. Clearly, Wally is one of them. Based on last season, Allen could pan out yet. He plays D, was starting to show some consistency offensively and seemed to actually give a flying fig.
As for the draft, my first choice would be to trade the pick, but only if Horford is off the board already. Brewer would be a nice piece, but I’m not convinced he wouldn’t end up lost in the Green/Wally/Allen mix. Noah will be laughable as a pro. And yes, the last thing the Celtics need is another project like Yi. Knowing Ainge, though, that’s exactly what they will do if they don’t trade out.
June 1st, 2007 at 2:10 am
TBL you contradicted yourself by saying that Big Al’s #’s were inflated because he was playing when everyone else was hurt but said that Howard’s #’s were legit because he was playing with crap? That confused me very much. I am not saying that I would take Big Al over Howard, but it is a HECK of a lot closer than you are letting on. Howard is the vastly superior athlete, Al is the better BASKETBALL player, when healthy…
As for the pick…it has to be Brewer, he is an immediate difference maker on the defensive end and he can score in a number of different ways. He is a more athletic version of Manu Ginobili down to the crazy out of control drives to the hoop.
As for my beloved C’s, they are a omplete disaster and everyone whose name isnt Al Jefferson should be available. Let’s hope ATL takes Brandan Wright with the #3 pick and pray Conley falls to our laps at #5. West and Gomes are solid bench players but that is it and the team doesnt have a PG at all. Rondo is gifted athletically and defensively but until he develops a J he is a liability.
Basically, they are screwed!
June 1st, 2007 at 12:03 pm
Brewer makes perfect sense. You would have the absolutely best defensive backcourt in the league with he and Rondo. The would be able to run the floor with a 5 of Perkins, Jeff, Pierce, Brewer and Rondo. And that would leave a bench of Green, West, Gomes, Allen, and Wally. They could compete with the “small-ball” teams by playing Green rather than one of the bigs.
Brewer would be my pick!
June 2nd, 2007 at 6:02 am
Terrible analysis all around. Have some foresight for a change. This team is headed in the right direction. This team was riddled with injuries and youth last year, and were still in every game (and their record w/ Pierce/Wally in the lineup was actually pretty decent). The C’s are loaded with talented players at all positions (PS: Al Jefferson is not a small forward), and whether they got Oden/Durant or not, they were already on their way to becoming at worst a playoff team.
People who critizie Ainge just dont get it. I believe next season’s results will have a lot of so called ‘analysts’ changing their tune.
June 3rd, 2007 at 4:15 am
How many years does Ainge get a free pass?
3 year plan is over. It’s year 5 and he has done nothing at all to make this team better.
IF Jefferson stays healthy. When has he done that? Not even this year and showing up for 2 months of a 3 year career is pathtic. You would not have a job if you did that in the real world.
I have been hearing wait until next year since Ainge got here and anyone that defends Ainge is either brain dead or just plain insane.
June 3rd, 2007 at 4:17 am
Jefferson can’t defend and he can’t shoot if anyone is on him. He has not improved that at all.