NBA Finals Prediction Post: Cleveland or San Antonio?
Uncategorized June 6th. 2007, 4:52pm
The oddsmakers don’t think Cleveland has a chance. The media has virtually handed the crown to the Spurs, and awarded Tim Duncan his fourth NBA title (footnote: same number as Shaq). Bruce Bowen, the cheapshot artist that he is, doesn’t seem remotely daunted by having to guard LeBron James. You can be sure he’ll be using more underhanded tactics to slow and frustrate the best player in the league (sorry guys: he’s better than Kobe). If it’s such a lock, why bother watch?
We’re going to conduct our NBA Finals preview a day early, and for no other reason than everyone else will be talking about it Thursday, and you may be all talked out. We’re going to recommend this New York Times piece on LeBron as a jumping off point, and then ask you to try and answer these three questions about the Finals.
After the jump our three questions:
1. We’ve noted elsewhere the the Spurs three playoff opponents all ranked in the bottom half of the league defensively. The Cavs were fifth in scoring defense this season. Will the Spurs struggle to score?
2. Just how bad is the 2-3-2 format for the Cavs? Must they steal a game in San Antonio early to have any shot in the series?
3. Here are the true post players the Cavs have faced through three rounds: Brenda Haywood and Etan Thomas (Washington), Mikki Moore (New Jersey), and Chris Webber (Detroit). Tim Duncan’s kind of in another league. Do Z, Gooden and Varejao stand a chance?
We’re taking the Cavs in six, but no explanation will make anyone happy, so we won’t even try. Oh, and Spurs take Game One, but don’t cover 7.5.
Preparing for Another Round (Cavaliers Blog)
The Spurs Owe LeBron James (Pounding the Rock)
Ready for N.B.A. Throne, but Not Like Mike (NY Times)
12 Responses to “NBA Finals Prediction Post: Cleveland or San Antonio?”
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June 6th, 2007 at 4:58 pm
TrueHoop threw up a solid amount of points in favor of the Cavs and especially Lebron being dominant. But I still have to go with the Spurs in 6, can’t trust a team where you have Daniel Gibson as your #2 option.
June 6th, 2007 at 5:09 pm
The Spurs can suck on it. Cleveland took on the role as underdog pretty well in the ECF, and I think they can translate it well to the Finals. However, the EC does not have a team anywhere as loaded as the Spurs, they have great position players and the Cavs are outmatched at nearly every position. But, as you said, the Cavs have LeBron James and he can play some ball. Cavs in 7.
June 6th, 2007 at 5:11 pm
Spurs in 6, much as I would like to see the Cavs win, I don’t see it happening yet.
June 6th, 2007 at 5:13 pm
I say Spurs in 5. And Dwade is still the best player in the NBA. Just because he got hurt this year doesn’t make him any less badass. Oh, and he actually won the title last year, which a lot of the Lebron bandwagoners seem to think he already did as well.
June 6th, 2007 at 6:43 pm
“We’ve noted elsewhere the the Spurs three playoff opponents all ranked in the bottom half of the league defensively. The Cavs were fifth in scoring defense this season. Will the Spurs struggle to score?”
I hate it when people don’t think things through. You think Cleveland, Denver, Phoenix or Utah would have had different stats if they switched conferences? You think that maybe the Western conference is a little harder? I’m not saying that Cleveland isn’t good defensively, or that the Nuggets, Suns or Jazz are, but a little context is helpful. The Wizards are the only team from the East to average 100 points a game. The West had 8 teams average over 100.
Oh, and the Spurs held their opponents to 3 points a game less than the Cavs.
June 6th, 2007 at 6:50 pm
Do you think the Nuggets, Suns, and Jazz make a concentrated effort to try and play defense?
FWIW, in two regular season games against the Cavs, the Spurs didn’t top 81 either time.
June 6th, 2007 at 6:57 pm
Cavs in 7…somebody had to say it. We’re looking at an All-Time Great Finals here. One for the ages
June 6th, 2007 at 7:08 pm
Caught the TrueHoop article as well. Excellent insight on how the season series went down. For all the crap that goes flying around about how the East isn’t that good they one last year and a couple years ago. They are not winning because they suck, they are winning because at some point the ball they are playing is better than what the West is playing. It may not be pretty or fun to watch, but it is very consistent. The West can be very streaky at times leaving them open for some losses.
I just wish everyone would quit giving this years finals to the Spurs so quickly. The Cavs weren’t even supposed to get to Detroit, so for them to be in the Finals says something.
June 6th, 2007 at 8:49 pm
Defensive efficiency, at least per ESPN’s rankings, is pace adjusted, so it doesn’t matter that the Wiz are the only 100+ team in the East. The metric reflects that.
Go Cavs.
June 6th, 2007 at 9:20 pm
FWIW, in two regular season games against the Cavs, the Spurs didn’t top 81 either time.
One of those games was like the season opener, so you can’t really count that. I’m thinking Spurs in 5. Duncan will get in foul trouble the first game in Cleveland and they’ll steal one, but I think you answered your own question. Duncan is in another class.
If Gooden gets in foul trouble they won’t have any other inside option because Z looks like he’s hauling bricks out there after 5 minutes on the court.
June 6th, 2007 at 11:19 pm
I’m thinkin Spurs in 6, but I’m pullin for King James.
So you’re telling us that LeBron is the best player in the league… hmm could that be printing your opinions as fact?
Lots of questions, not many answers… you have a finals prediction post, then dont explain your prediction? C’mon now.
June 7th, 2007 at 3:03 am
Sorry TBL. You can’t just go against the grain without any analysis. I agree that the Lebron factor makes this series difficult to actually pinpoint, but there has to be some rationale behind the pick.
I’m taking the Spurs in 6. But I reserve the right to change that pick if the Spurs don’t blow out the Cavs in Game 1 - which I think they will. The Spurs have three guys that can create their own shot (TD, Parker, Manu) and two guys that can spot up and hit the open jumper all game long (Bowen and Finley). That is a far more well rounded offense than Detroit brought to the table. As an example, Tayshaun Prince couldn’t hit an open 3 all series. Bowen won’t miss those shots.
Also, Manu legitimately knows how to get to the free throw line. When Vince Carter really asserted himself against Sasha in Round 2, he got to the line every time. But since VC takes too many plays off, the Nets never really took advantage. Rip Hamilton abused Sasha at times in the conference finals as well. The Spurs are too smart not to catch that.
TD is TD. The Cavs must accept that and avoid doubling too much, because the Spurs will hit the open 3 and punish them. Do as the Pistons did in the Finals in 2004 when they let Shaq have his points and didn’t let the other players beat them. Unfortunately, Mike Brown in the coach of the Cavs and won’t pick up on it.
The biggest reason the Cavs won’t win this series is that Lebron has competition for “best player on the court” status. If all things are equal between he and Duncan, then it comes down to the other guys on the court and coaching. Not good for the Cavs.