Trading Josh Beckett Would Be Silly
Baseball November 4th. 2009, 5:00pm
Dave D’Onofrio of the Concord Monitor believes the Yankees were demonstrably better than the Red Sox this season (ignore the run differential). To close that gap, he argues the Red Sox should trade Josh Beckett. As is customary for such blanket assertions, he leaves the salient questions unanswered, to whom and for what in return?
Though he butchers the statistical justifications for it, D’Onofrio says Beckett’s reputation is greater than his production. He is perceived as an ace and among the top pitchers in the game. In reality, he’s been merely a decent starter. His big game reputation has been sullied the past two seasons.
Why is not living up to an artificial perception a knock?
Beckett is streaky. He’ll have a couple weeks where he’s unhittable then get shelled the next two starts. Some of the shelling comes while pitching hurt. He averages out to a good starter, slightly, though not obscenely, below the Sabathia-Lee level of late.
He was pulled before the 5th inning once all season. The only time he didn’t throw at least 93 pitches was a rain-shortened game in September the Red Sox won 9-1. He had 20 out of 32 quality starts. Sabathia had 21 in 34 starts. Not bad for $11 million in the AL East.
Beckett was bad in the 2008 playoffs. It wasn’t a mysterious disappearance of clutchitude. He was seriously injured.
What would Josh Beckett command on the trade market that would be better than Josh Beckett? Do the Mets throw Wright or Reyes into a deal? Unlikely. But, even then, you plug one hole by creating another. There’s no rational offer from a team for Beckett that would make the Red Sox substantially better.
Beckett may be overrated by the media. That’s irrelevant. He may not be an ace. The Red Sox are not paying him like one. Beckett’s productive. He has a sensible contract. If you’re trying to contend (which presumably is the goal of catching up with the Yankees), there’s no reason to trade him.
47 Responses to “Trading Josh Beckett Would Be Silly”
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November 4th, 2009 at 5:01 pm
So Duffy is more or less TBL’s Red Sox/Michigan/Soccer beat writer?
November 4th, 2009 at 5:03 pm
Vincent D’Onofrio > Dave D’Onofrio
November 4th, 2009 at 5:04 pm
he’ll go to the cubs and his arm will literally fall off.
November 4th, 2009 at 5:04 pm
you write what you know.
November 4th, 2009 at 5:05 pm
LET’S GO YANKEES!!!
November 4th, 2009 at 5:05 pm
If they could get Wright for him they would be all kinds of retarded to not do that.
November 4th, 2009 at 5:06 pm
Back to Florida for Hanley again. it could oddly work out fine for both teams.
November 4th, 2009 at 5:06 pm
Steps for the Redsox to compete with the Yankees:
1. Open Wallet
2. Hand Money to top free agent.
3. Repeat
It’s baseball come on. You don’t compete by trading when you are a big market team
November 4th, 2009 at 5:06 pm
silly, hanley is derek’s replacement.
November 4th, 2009 at 5:07 pm
Which is exactly why Duff should NOT write about depression and/or anxiety issues.
/4 months ago’d
November 4th, 2009 at 5:08 pm
Without even knowing who Dave is, I know for a fact that he’s > than Vincent. His character on L&O was such a fucking know it all that I quit watching. Besides that, he’s well known to be a bigger diva than J-Lo.
November 4th, 2009 at 5:09 pm
i’d have to say this columnist wrote what would have to be a top 3 silly column of the baseball offseason, even though it hasn’t officially begun
November 4th, 2009 at 5:10 pm
Probably wouldn’t hurt Beckett to hit the treadmill.
November 4th, 2009 at 5:11 pm
Mets will never trade Wright. Reyes will never play for the Mets again. They’ll be lucky to get a bag of balls for him. Vince in Full Metal Jacket ruled.
November 4th, 2009 at 5:12 pm
Someone is counting the hours.
Hey TBL if Mo takes the mound tonight with the lead just remember what happened 8 years ago today.
November 4th, 2009 at 5:12 pm
Yep. He needs to quit reporting to spring training as a fat fuck.
November 4th, 2009 at 5:12 pm
He’s been paid less than his value every year of his career. Trading him wouldn’t just be silly, it be moronic.
November 4th, 2009 at 5:14 pm
To the day??? Damn, that’s some crazy shit for tonite. I bet Buck never mentions it once.
November 4th, 2009 at 5:14 pm
That episode of Homicide: Life on the Street where he’s trapped between the subway car and the platform is tough to watch, but he’s awesome in it.
November 4th, 2009 at 5:14 pm
he’ll go to the cubs and his arm will literally fall off.
Even knowing that I would trade Milton Bradley for him.
November 4th, 2009 at 5:15 pm
For anyone remotely statistically inclined, I would highly recommend the column. Hilarious stuff.
November 4th, 2009 at 5:15 pm
bob sanders is hurt again? poor guy
November 4th, 2009 at 5:15 pm
Jesus, how the hell would you like to crunch those numbers. I get a headache just looking at em
November 4th, 2009 at 5:16 pm
Hold on here. There is nothing wrong with what this guy is saying. He is simply saying that if you can get an Ace level package in return for Beckett you should because he isn’t an ace. What is wrong with that? Its really jsut a reverse “moneyball” of selling an overvalued asset.
The fact that its the Red Sox and they don’t have financial worries is all the more reason. They can get even more value for the underpaid aspect of the ace perception.
The article not having any suggestions of actual trades might be a fault, but the concept is fine.
November 4th, 2009 at 5:17 pm
2010 is Beckett’s last year though and then I’m assuming he’s going to get a huge contract. I can honestly see the argument for it.
November 4th, 2009 at 5:18 pm
in a heartbeat. i would throw in soriano just to get him off the team.
November 4th, 2009 at 5:18 pm
Only until yahoo takes him, in which case we’ll be notified via one-liner. Which will thankfully turn into a post about dip/chew. Can’t wait!
November 4th, 2009 at 5:20 pm
Cubs should make a trade, Lilly went under knife the other day. Hopefully to be ready in April.
November 4th, 2009 at 5:20 pm
the only reason the red sux run differential was close to the yanks is because the sox were +200 in games they played the orioles.
/truestory
November 4th, 2009 at 5:21 pm
If the Red Sox trade Beckett they will trade for anything of high value on the left side on the infield, i get what you’re saying tho, that Soriano contract is terrible.
November 4th, 2009 at 5:22 pm
Beckett isn’t overvalued. He’s undervalued. He was worth almost 24 million last year, yet was paid 11 million. Trading him would be the equivalent of pissing away wins. There were only 14 pitchers worth more wins than Beckett, and one was Lester.
November 4th, 2009 at 5:23 pm
He’s been paid less than his value every year of his career. Trading him wouldn’t just be silly, it be moronic.
The Red Sox are one of the few organizations that don’t have to concern themselves with this aspect so much. So why not monetize it? Let someone who needs $$$ value overpay in talent terms in exchange for what to the Sox is a much less valuable asset.
Again, I don’t know what they can actually get, but the concept isn’t crazy.
November 4th, 2009 at 5:23 pm
Elbow injury, doesn’t sound serious, he should probably still play Sunday. If not, Melvin Bullitt is more than capable.
November 4th, 2009 at 5:25 pm
Beckett isn’t overvalued. He’s undervalued.
He may be underpaid, but he isn’t necessarily undervalued. If other teams are willing to exchange an “Ace” worth of talent and he isn’t an “Ace” then he is overvalued.
November 4th, 2009 at 5:25 pm
Who is trading for Beckett? What are they offering? The Red Sox can’t use the Red Sox and Yankees to drive up a bidding war.
November 4th, 2009 at 5:26 pm
Here is Josh Beckett talking about his desire to stay in Boston.
November 4th, 2009 at 5:30 pm
Oooh, good omen.
November 4th, 2009 at 5:30 pm
Who are they getting that’s an improvement over Beckett? Unless the Mariners can’t sign Felix to a long term deal there aren’t a lot of guys out there.
November 4th, 2009 at 5:33 pm
I don’t think its about improving on Beckett but more about improving that infield. I could see a trade with Arizona working
November 4th, 2009 at 5:35 pm
first off, Arizona doesn’t have that kind of cash to spend. 2nd off, neither Stephen Drew nor Mark Reynolds is good enough return for Beckett.
November 4th, 2009 at 5:36 pm
What if you get Webb in that?
November 4th, 2009 at 5:38 pm
then I don’t know why Arizona would do that. A lot depends on how Webb comes back from his iinjury though
November 4th, 2009 at 5:38 pm
Who are they getting that’s an improvement over Beckett?
They probably won’t imrpove over Beckett, but thats not the point. The author believes that the team needs to improve and one way he is suggesting they can is by getting equal value for the perception of a player rather than for the actual of the player. Its actually a fairly “modern GM” idea.
November 4th, 2009 at 5:40 pm
This is not the pitcher the Red Sox should be trying to trade. That pitcher is much shorter, probably enjoys sushi and has a higher WHIP than 96% of AL pitchers.
November 4th, 2009 at 5:40 pm
Than you make the trade.
November 4th, 2009 at 5:55 pm
Well the sox would definitely have to take byrnes for 2010.
November 4th, 2009 at 8:12 pm
i’d have to say this columnist wrote what would have to be a top 3 silly column of the baseball offseason, even though it hasn’t officially begun
before i saw who wrote this, i thought it was referring to duffy