nfc-north-is-a-hot-messRemember back before the NFL season began when the NFC North was supposed to be a three-way “battle” between the Vikings, Packers and Bears? After yesterday’s events - the Packers falling to previously winless Tampa Bay and the Bears getting annihilated by Arizona - that kind of talk seems like a distant memory. Green Bay and Chicago both sit at 4-4, and the odds of either team making the playoffs at this point aren’t great.

New Orleans and Minnesota are playoff locks, and Arizona should be able to hold on to the craptastic NFC West. The NFC East is still muddled, but will likely send at least two teams to the postseason. That leaves the Bears and Packers scrambling alongside the third-place NFC East team and the Falcons for the last playoff bid. At least the Packers have already faced - and lost to - the Vikings twice; the Bears have yet to play the 7-1 NFC North leaders.

So, what’s gone wrong? Why have these preseason contenders led by upper-crust young quarterbacks been so underwhelming? Here’s a few of their problems (which, if you have a pulse, you’re already aware of):

1. Their defenses suck: The 2006 Bears rode the league’s second-best defense (and the arm of Rex Grossman!) to a Super Bowl. Since then, that unit has deteriorated to the point where the Cardinals rang up 31 first-half points on the Bears Sunday, just two weeks after the Bengals scored an identical amount in the first 30 minutes. Even the Saints can’t afford to spot teams 30-point leads. As for the Packers, well, their defense last year was so terrible they overhauled the entire scheme, bringing in Defensive Coordinator to the Stars Dom Capers and his 3-4 look. So far that “look” has been gashed for at least three TD passes by Brett Favre (twice), along with immortal rookie QB Josh Freeman.

aaron-rodgers-needs-major-help2. Their offensive lines suck: Giving up 4.5 sacks to Jared Allen (as the Packers did in their first meeting with Minnesota) isn’t great, but he’s an All Pro. Giving up SIX sacks to the league’s 24th-ranked defense? There’s not a lawyer in the world who could convince me that’s okay. Conversely, the Bears allowing four sacks to the Cardinals is understandable, given that they were down by 20+ points most of the game and the Arizona defensive line could tee off on Jay Cutler. What’s troubling about the Bears’ offensive line is that other than a 61-yard run against the Lions in week four, running back Matt Forte’s longest runs of each game have been 10 yards, five yards, 11 yards, five yards, 10 yards, 12 yards and 16 yards. He’s not getting to the second level, which means no holes are being created at the point of attack. Not good.

3. Their QB’s are great, but they can’t do it all: Cutler and Aaron Rodgers have combined to throw for 30 TD passes in the 16 games they’ve played this season. That’s a lot of production. The problem is many of those TD throws have come when their teams have been trailing and they’ve been forced to play chuck-it-up (think Rodgers’ three vs. Minnesota last week and Cutler’s three yesterday vs. Arizona). Another issue is the punishment the two signal-callers are taking. Rodgers suffered two sprains against Minnesota and was knocked down nearly 10 times against Tampa Bay. Cutler was bloodied by the Cleveland Browns a week ago and hit eight times by the Cardinals. Great quarterbacks (which Cutler and Rodgers both have the talent to be) can carry teams for stretches of time, so long as they’re winning. But constant punishment and constant losing can turn anyone into David Carr.

Now, add all that together and you get:

Jim Zorn and Tom Cable have some company on the hot seat: Lovie Smith’s Super Bowl appearance in 2006 and Mike McCarthy’s 13-3 season in 2007 bought both of them short-term job insurance. But two straight playoff misses by Smith and McCarthy’s 6-10 disaster in 2008, combined with high expectations for their teams this season, have each coach facing a crossroads. Another 7-9 or 9-7 season probably won’t be enough to save Smith in Chicago. As for McCarthy, if the geriatric in purple is in the playoffs and the Packers are sitting at home, someone’s going to have to take the fall. And it probably won’t be Ted Thompson.