MLB Trade Rumors released their top 50 Free Agents List. It’s as titillating as a memoir of A.C. Green’s sexcapades. Matt Holliday, the top rated player, can’t hack it in the American League. John Lackey, the top rated pitcher, has missed 15 starts with arm trouble the past two seasons and been relevant for Cy Young voting once. Marco effing Scutaro cracked the top ten.

These free agents will be hyped, to talk about something, but none of them will dramatically affect a team’s ability to win the World Series. Teams have less money than last winter, a year into a depression rather than anticipating one. The story of the offseason will be trades, not free agents. Here are three players likely to move.

Adrian Gonzalez: In four seasons with the Padres, Gonzalez has put up a 138 OPS+ and hit 130HR in a terrible hitters park. He’s 27. An AL park could convert him into the incredible hulk, without adjusting his cap size. He makes only $10.75 million, for the next two seasons. His low salary makes him desirable. It also gives San Diego leverage, because it’s not essential to trade him.

According to the media they manipulate, the Red Sox tried for Gonzalez last season. Boston looks less probable now though, as the Padres hired Red Sox assistant GM Jed Hoyer, who can call Theo’s bullshit. Gonzalez would be perfect for San Francisco, but it’s unclear how Brian Sabean rates him on grit and veteran wizardry. He’s no Freddy Sanchez.

Roy Halladay: Halladay’s arguably the best pitcher in baseball. He has pitched 220 innings the past four seasons and been in the top five for Cy Young votes. 2008 and 2009 may have been his best two seasons. He’s a consistently better version of CC Sabathia without the weight issue.

The Blue Jays will want young, cost-friendly talent. Halladay has a no-trade clause and will want to go to a contender. The Phillies have the prospects and the impetus to win now, with a World Series window closing. The bullpen is important, but so is the fact that their top two starters in October were not their top two starters in April last season.

carl-crawfordCarl Crawford: He’s a tremendous athlete who will give you .300/.350/.450, hit 15 HR and steal 50 bases. Tampa Bay picked up his $10 million option, but he becomes a free agent after this season. They have 22-year-old Desmond Jennings ready to replace him.

Though 2008 was a watershed, the Rays face two realities. They don’t have fans. They don’t have a real stadium to make them financially viable. If they can cut significant salary (one-sixth of their payroll), without substantially harming the present they need to do it.

Crawford is athletic and makes things happen. He’s built for the post-steroid era. He has value now, and he may have even more in July.  That would also let the fiendish Rays screw Jennings out of a year of service time.  What contending team would dimiss a reasonably priced corner outfield upgrade?