Zack Greinke’s Cy Young a Double Victory for Stat Dweebs
Baseball, Stats November 18th. 2009, 2:15pm
I used to write that baseball writing was the only profession where ignorance was considered a virtue. Zack Greinke winning the AL Cy Young shows that the combined muscle of Joe Posnanski, Rob Neyer and Fire Joe Morgan may have enhanced conventional baseball wisdom, slightly.
Twenty-five of 28 voters felt that Greinke’s statistical advantage in numerous categories trumped Felix Hernandez’ team winning three more games for him. We have come far since the 2002 season when Pedro Martinez led the AL in ERA (2.26), adjusted ERA+ (202), WHIP (0.923), strikeouts (239), strikeouts per 9IP (10.8), and strikeout to walk ratio (5.98) and lost the Cy Young to Barry Zito, whose team won him three more games.
Writers, finally, seem to acknowledge that wins are an imprecise indicator of pitching ability and that, though a statistic may not be decipherable on Murray Chass’ abacus, it might be relevant.
It’s a double-victory for stat geeks, because Greinke is one himself. He was using FIP, fielder-independent pitching, to strategize last year. FIP! Imagine. Baseball players are become receptive to information that couldmake them better. Soon, they will realize chewing tobacco causes cancer and cardiovascular conditioning will help them extend their careers and stave off injury.
Greinke’s victory is small, but it should inspire optimism. Perhaps, someday, we can realize that if Babe Ruth, Barry Bonds and Ted Williams did not have 3,000 hits but Paul Molitor and Robin Yount did, the milestone is irrelevant.
95 Responses to “Zack Greinke’s Cy Young a Double Victory for Stat Dweebs”
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November 18th, 2009 at 2:18 pm
who will be the first to interview him? i heard he was autistic and can’t really hold a conversation.
November 18th, 2009 at 2:18 pm
I don’t know shit about baseball and I know even less about all of these fucking stats that the sports is obsessed with, but I do know that I watched this kid pitch 4 times this year and he was unreal. Some of the best stuff I’ve seen in my 15+ years of casually watching the game.
November 18th, 2009 at 2:19 pm
If a photographer told me to pose like that, I would follow through with the pitch.
November 18th, 2009 at 2:19 pm
My two cents:
1. It’s hilarious that Greinke and Bannister know more about how to assemble a pitching staff/defense than the people who are paid to do it.
2. I would have paid 59.99 on pay per view to have been in the room with them when they heard they acquired Yuniesky Betancourt.
November 18th, 2009 at 2:22 pm
What were the comparisons in 03? I know Halladay beat him with an ERA that was like a whole run worse.
November 18th, 2009 at 2:27 pm
Robin Yount’s no good now? You should swap that for Palmiero, and fast.
November 18th, 2009 at 2:28 pm
See also: Bartolo Colon beating out Johan in 2005. Still annoyed about that.
November 18th, 2009 at 2:28 pm
Hurray for stats! Long live stats!!!
November 18th, 2009 at 2:30 pm
RE: Zito over Pedro – don’t underestimate the “He already has his awards, lets give it to someone else” factor as well.
November 18th, 2009 at 2:31 pm
Clown doesn’t even have newspapers to be wrong with anymore. My condolences.
Dirt: Haven’t looked it up, but I think Palmiero was probably a better hitter than Yount.
November 18th, 2009 at 2:31 pm
Yount did it on Busch Light. Screw Palmiero.
November 18th, 2009 at 2:33 pm
shut your mouth.
November 18th, 2009 at 2:33 pm
looks like that pussy got over his [uses finger quotes] “anxiety disorder”. told you it was fake. i told you!
/duffy
November 18th, 2009 at 2:33 pm
I hope it really is a corner turned. Part of me fears, as Neyer suggested, that it wasn’t jsut the stats, but the buzz that made the choice so clear. Cover of SI, the JQKA t-shirt, etc. A lot of things conspired to make it happen. I do hope that the groundwork is laid for a similar decision even without the hype next time.
November 18th, 2009 at 2:34 pm
I should stay out of baseball discussions, but I remember Robin Yount as being awesome, playing shortstop and center field, and being the best player on a world series champion, besides having 3000 hits. I know he was league MVP, which I also know means nothing to statheads, that the award is utterly and completely meaningless. I do not know his VORP, his DORP, or his GLOOB.
November 18th, 2009 at 2:35 pm
I want one of those shirts.
Spencer, apparently the girl who edits (or maybe is just a sportswriter at) the UM student newspaper is a TBL reader. She’s also a Yankees fan, so basically the most detestable human being to ever live. Just thought Id let you know since it’s that time of the year and if you had a message for her.
November 18th, 2009 at 2:36 pm
Why the shot at Robin Yount and Paul Molitor?
November 18th, 2009 at 2:37 pm
Winning an MVP award is not meaningless. It’s just a circular argument for baseball writers to argue someone was great, solely based on the fact that baseball writers thought he was great.
November 18th, 2009 at 2:38 pm
1. muck fichigan.
2. you hot? if so…hate fuck? my place? i got good pot.
November 18th, 2009 at 2:38 pm
Greinke is a pedifile, one with extreme social anxiety issues. But hey, he’s one hell of a pitcher!
/truth
November 18th, 2009 at 2:39 pm
I do not know his VORP, his DORP, or his GLOOB
That’s because the second two don’t exist (but points for trying to be funny) and you didn’t take two seconds to look up the first. Congrats on being lazy and willfully ignorant.
/oh shit I think i just made Dirt’s list of people he hates.
November 18th, 2009 at 2:40 pm
Dirt: I don’t know his VORP either because it’s a stupid stat.
November 18th, 2009 at 2:41 pm
my lawn is carefully manicured, i would prefer if you stayed off of it.
November 18th, 2009 at 2:41 pm
I’m the wrong guy to be arguing the merits of baseball players, but Robin Yount was really, really good at baseball.
Discounting the MVP award seems to indicate that all baseball writers are all always wrong.
November 18th, 2009 at 2:44 pm
A few years ago Duffy thought Greinke was just ineffective.
November 18th, 2009 at 2:44 pm
It was a simpler time, Dirt. When people relied on their eyeballs and not on a spreadsheet.
November 18th, 2009 at 2:44 pm
Discounting the MVP award seems to indicate that all baseball writers are all always wrong
This I agree with. The statistically inclined baseball fan has become just as lazy in arguments against “old timey sports writers being set in their ways”. It’s not often that someone wins an MVP who really was not one of the three best players in the league for that particular season. So writers, I think, should be commended for that.
November 18th, 2009 at 2:44 pm
not ALWAYS, just OFTEN.
November 18th, 2009 at 2:44 pm
mo vaughn mvp over albert belle trumps all. worse in every stat ever invented
November 18th, 2009 at 2:46 pm
Big points for bringing this one back up, nice work
Game Genie’d
November 18th, 2009 at 2:46 pm
people’s eyeballs also said that leeching is a sound medical practice and that witches are real and must be burned.
is having some evidence to back up a statement REALLY that bad guys?
November 18th, 2009 at 2:46 pm
oh shit I think i just made Dirt’s list of people he hates.
you should move to the moon. They have water for you to drink.
kidding – i’m on baseball reference, and i don’t find the VORP, nor could I discern what it means anyway.
All of the baseball writers of America thought this guy who played for a small market team in the 1970’s and 1980’s. He was the MVP of the league (nonsense, I know) once playing shortstop, and once playing centerfield, and he went into the Hall of Fame on the first ballot.
I’m just saying it’s possible that Duffy looked at the list, and didn’t know anything about Robin Yount, and pounced.
November 18th, 2009 at 2:47 pm
No longer a BP fanboi? I don’t even know you anymore!
/runs away crying
November 18th, 2009 at 2:47 pm
Just like when people relied on their eyes to tell them that the Earth was the center of the universe. Simpler, more wrong, times.
Then again: simple, and wrong? You’d fit right in, clown.
November 18th, 2009 at 2:48 pm
I’d say you were right on.
November 18th, 2009 at 2:49 pm
that’s pretty possible.
November 18th, 2009 at 2:49 pm
hey spence remember when you said kobe isnt in the discussion with mj and kareem? man, you’re stupid.
/just wanted to throw that out there
November 18th, 2009 at 2:50 pm
I think you’re taking Duffy saying that “Yount not being as good of a hitter as X (I’ll use Palmiero since you supplied it) to mean “not as good of a player” which isn’t true. The fact that Yount played SS and CF, makes him more valuable.
November 18th, 2009 at 2:51 pm
he doesn’t.
November 18th, 2009 at 2:51 pm
shut your smelly, brown, rotten-teethed mouth.
/pinch between cheek and gum’d
Perhaps, someday, we can realize that if Babe Ruth, Barry Bonds and Ted Williams did not have 3,000 hits but Paul Molitor and Robin Yount did, the milestone is irrelevant.
reminds me of the jeter-baines hit-total onion funny
November 18th, 2009 at 2:53 pm
you should move to the moon. They have water for you to drink.
kidding – i’m on baseball reference, and i don’t find the VORP, nor could I discern what it means anyway.
+1 Dirt. I bet moon water tastes good though.
VORP means Value Over Replacement Player. Fetch is right though, as stats go, it’s not the best one out there.
I’m just saying it’s possible that Duffy looked at the list, and didn’t know anything about Robin Yount, and pounced.
I’d say this is probably exactly how it happened.
November 18th, 2009 at 2:53 pm
OK, somebody stat oriented look at this list of career stats and then tell me which of these stats prove that this guy is worthy of the Duffy’s ridicule and ambivalence.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/y/yountro01.shtml
I apologize for getting into a baseball discussion, fellas. It’s not my game, but it was when I was a kid. The things that get pointed to these days don’t always make sense. Hits, meaningless. Wins, meaningless. Awards, meaningless. The fact that this guy batted 3rd his whole career, irrelevant.
November 18th, 2009 at 2:53 pm
um…yeah he is. and you are still stupid. and all of your teams suck.
November 18th, 2009 at 2:53 pm
So writers, I think, should be commended for that
why, because they’re doing their job well–paying attention to the league they cover and all that?
November 18th, 2009 at 2:55 pm
A great day for Mariner fans everywhere.
November 18th, 2009 at 2:56 pm
why, because they’re doing their job well–paying attention to the league they cover and all that?
Ok, poor choice of words. Writers should not be constantly derided becuase of that.
Better?
November 18th, 2009 at 2:56 pm
I can’t wait until his story gets made into a boring movie that will make 100 million dollars.
November 18th, 2009 at 2:56 pm
Better?
all
November 18th, 2009 at 2:57 pm
he’s 2nd tier at best. right outside the top 10.
what’s wrong with that. why is it a fucking crime to think that a very good chucker with above average at best defense isn’t in the discussion with two of the five greatest players who ever lived? OH MY GOD!!! I SHOULD HAVE MY COMMENTING LICENCE REVOKED!!!
November 18th, 2009 at 2:57 pm
My boy played against Greinke in the minors and it was rumored that Greinke dated a 14yr old girl while he was playing. The organization kindly told him that’s a no-no and looked the other way because a)he’s really good and, b) he’s mildly retarded.
November 18th, 2009 at 2:57 pm
sandra bullock is a lock to play greinke
November 18th, 2009 at 2:57 pm
I think the fact that Halladay made 7 additional starts and threw 80 more innings in 2003 was what did it for him. Pedro was definitely better that year but he didn’t put in a full season.
November 18th, 2009 at 2:58 pm
So, continued success counts for nothing? Guys don’t get to 3000 hits on accident. They have to be good enough to continue playing and continue to get hits…
Is it a measure of comparable success against others, season vs season? No. Is it a measure of ability to stay healthy, play longer, and play consistently for a long time? Yes. Since there are so few that could ever do it, it isn’t irrelevant…
November 18th, 2009 at 2:58 pm
The organization kindly told him that’s a no-no and looked the other way because a)he’s really good and, b) he’s mildly retarded.
so cute
November 18th, 2009 at 2:58 pm
OH MY GOD!!! I SHOULD HAVE MY COMMENTING LICENCE REVOKED!!!
There’s licenses? Is mine in the mail TBL?
November 18th, 2009 at 2:59 pm
It’s not that they’re meaningless, it’s that they’re just not very good indicators of value as stand alone statistics.
November 18th, 2009 at 2:59 pm
But Tim Kirkjian devours stats and strippers. Living legend.
November 18th, 2009 at 3:00 pm
Hits fucking suck, much like Derek Jeter and Ichiro.
November 18th, 2009 at 3:00 pm
it isnt a crime it is just stupid. if he played for the cavs you would agree but since he isnt lebron you are being a fah go
November 18th, 2009 at 3:01 pm
Tim Kirkjian devours stats and strippers
then why isn;t he bigger?
November 18th, 2009 at 3:04 pm
Lefty, you’re a stats guy? Look at those Robin Yount stats and tell me why he should have to incur Duffy’s scorn. I just don’t understand it.
especially since Ted Williams would have had 3000 hits if it hadnt been for the War, and the only reason Bonds still wanted to play was to get to 3000 hits. And the money.
November 18th, 2009 at 3:04 pm
kurkjian beating the crap out of a fat kid
November 18th, 2009 at 3:04 pm
when have i ever said that lebron is the best of all time? he’s not in this discussion either. hell, lebron isn’t even on barkley’s level right now.
i just think, when talking about generationally great players, kobe’s generationally great player was tim duncan.
but way to be a douchebag. you’re extremely good at that.
November 18th, 2009 at 3:05 pm
Hits fucking suck, much like Derek Jeter and Ichiro.
at least one of them can play defense
November 18th, 2009 at 3:06 pm
kurkjian beating the crap out of a fat kid
post overlap!
/see mangino commentary
November 18th, 2009 at 3:06 pm
not as good as you are at being dumb.
November 18th, 2009 at 3:07 pm
Don’t get me wrong. Robin Yount deserved no scorn. My statement was more to dispel the “statheads say hits are teh stoopidz” mantra that some people like to trot out.
November 18th, 2009 at 3:08 pm
oh stop! im blushing!
November 18th, 2009 at 3:10 pm
Cinco.
November 18th, 2009 at 3:10 pm
but way to be a
douchebagpussy. you’re bothextremely good at thatfans of flavored dip ./fixed
November 18th, 2009 at 3:10 pm
cal ripken is a fraud.
November 18th, 2009 at 3:10 pm
Dirt, it’s just a straw argument–he’s randomly selecting players with X stat, which he feels is overrated, and then creating a false equivalency with arguably the three greatest baseball players in history.
No one ever, in the histories, denigrated Bonds/Williams/Ruth for not reaching 3,000 hits, yet it’s perfectly OK to denigrate two fine players, albeit Brewers, because they did reach it, because Duffy thinks it’s unimportant.
That might have some weight if the list of 3,000+ hitters was chock full of slappies. But it isn’t.
November 18th, 2009 at 3:11 pm
Trent Dilfer > Dan Marino
/hernia’d
November 18th, 2009 at 3:12 pm
If Trent Dilfer had 5 rings, he wouldn’t be Trent Dilfer.
/Eat a dick’d
November 18th, 2009 at 3:12 pm
Robin Yount in 1982 had the highest VORP for a position player in the entire decade of the 80’s.
November 18th, 2009 at 3:15 pm
at least one of them can play defense
Cinco.
People are in disagreement about the value of a jap and a half breed playing baseball and in response someone makes an argument in Spanish.
/I WANT MY COUNTRY BACK!!!!!
November 18th, 2009 at 3:15 pm
Give me Jim Kelly
November 18th, 2009 at 3:16 pm
Cinco.
cal ripken is a fraud.
Ripken’s overrated career will only be surpassed by Jeter’s overrated career.
November 18th, 2009 at 3:16 pm
bernie kosar ftw!!!
November 18th, 2009 at 3:16 pm
+ Siete
November 18th, 2009 at 3:17 pm
he threw like a girl.
November 18th, 2009 at 3:18 pm
RINGS BABY!!!so?
November 18th, 2009 at 3:18 pm
Wow that is uncalled for. I doubt TBL is going to let you get away with saying I want my country back. Have fun getting banned.
November 18th, 2009 at 3:21 pm
they… they toook R JAWBS???
November 18th, 2009 at 3:22 pm
Wow that is uncalled for. I doubt TBL is going to let you get away with saying I want my country back. Have fun getting banned.
The youth of today is so sensitive…
November 18th, 2009 at 3:23 pm
I should have added the /sincere tag. Or perhaps the /terrible jokes one.
November 18th, 2009 at 3:24 pm
that’s pretty much my reaction when people try to tell me this baseball geek creationism by a bunch of stephen hawking wannabes with a spread sheet try to cram crap down my throat like OBGYN and whatever acronym they can come up with.
November 18th, 2009 at 3:25 pm
Totes dude. CC got robbed.
November 18th, 2009 at 3:25 pm
I agree. That’s my thought when Doctors say shit like “we’re gonna give you this MRI and take an X-Ray. Enough with the acronyms, give me some fucking leeches! Progress is so stupid!
November 18th, 2009 at 3:26 pm
First people are lying to you about Peyton Manning and now this jimmy.
November 18th, 2009 at 3:29 pm
I agree. That’s my thought when Doctors say shit like “we’re gonna give you this MRI and take an X-Ray. Enough with the acronyms, give me some fucking leeches! Progress is so stupid!
Progress in medicine reached its pinnacle when Tussin was created.
November 18th, 2009 at 3:30 pm
Tests are one thing. test away. but Rx drugs on the other hand…
November 18th, 2009 at 3:31 pm
“Scrape your knee? Rub some ‘tussin on it.”
November 18th, 2009 at 3:33 pm
“Scrape your knee? Rub some ‘tussin on it.”
“The Tussin is out? Put some water in the bottle, shake it up. More Tussin!”
November 18th, 2009 at 3:54 pm
So do I win? I think I won this one.
I’ll ask Taguchi. Taguchi, did I win?