Two Internet Writers May Have Cost Chris Carpenter the NL Cy Young
Baseball, Stats November 20th. 2009, 12:00pm
The BBWAA has acknowledged the internet folk of late, but their glasnost hit a snag in this year’s NL Cy Young voting. Both ESPN.com’s Keith Law and Baseball Prospectus’ Will Carroll bucked conventional wisdom slightly, leaving St. Louis starter Chris Carpenter off their ballots. This mild disparity may have cost Carpenter the award.
Each voter chose a top three. Law voted Lincecum, Vazquez, Wainright and Carroll voted Wainwright, Lincecum, Haren. Lincecum won by just six points. Had both writers not voted, Carpenter would have won the award. Had Carpenter finished an average of second on both writer’s ballots, he would have won.
Their votes sparked outrage from multiple forums. Sports Illustrated’s Jon Heyman gave them the vicious “dumbsportswriters” hashtag. Participants on the ever-entertaining STLtoday.com messageboards confirmed Keith “Freaking” Law is a “total asshat,” as opposed to a partial one.
Getting new blood into the voting pool is a positive. In the MLB package era, local newspaper writers have no discernible advantage for determining comprehensive awards. How many Cardinals games is the guy who covers the Phillies six nights a week watching? Focused on one team by necessity, they’re seeing less baseball than their Internet counterparts, let alone the dedicated fan. Writers voting based on what they heard only hardens conventional wisdom.
This also shows statistics are not calcifying or dehumanizing baseball analysis. The statistically-inclined Law and Carroll looked at identical data. They came to different conclusions.
Wainwright got jobbed in Cy Young voting [Post-Dispatch]
60 Responses to “Two Internet Writers May Have Cost Chris Carpenter the NL Cy Young”
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November 20th, 2009 at 12:05 pm
I don’t have a problem with stat heads but no one is going to tell me Javy Vazquez was better than Chris Carpenter this year. Keith Law loves being Keith Law.
November 20th, 2009 at 12:11 pm
Upon hearing Keith Law explain his decision and how he completely throws out wins, it’s easier to understand. Kurkjan for years has been a proponent of wins being incredibly overrated, especially in this day and age of bullpens being so vital. However, a pitchers job is to pitch as long into a game as he can, while giving up as few runs as he can in order to put his team into position to win, so how Carpenter isn’t in top 3 is ludicrous to me.
November 20th, 2009 at 12:15 pm
How does this affect the Snickers Chompionship?
November 20th, 2009 at 12:15 pm
I heard him say something this morning about how what really put Carpenter off the list was his innings total. He didnt have as high of a “value” to his team since he didnt pitch the first month or something. But now we’re adding value to the criteria, when this is for “best” pitcher, not MVP?
November 20th, 2009 at 12:16 pm
rs: the 30 more innings he pitched probably had something to do with it. As well has the higher K rate, similar BB rate, obviously higher K/BB rate, and lower FIP. JUst a guess.
November 20th, 2009 at 12:17 pm
maybe if Carpenter wouldn’t have been hurt for part of the season we wouldn’t be having this conversation?
hmmmm?
tough titty to him, he still made more money for not winning an award than i will in 10 years of working my current job.
November 20th, 2009 at 12:18 pm
Billy Wagner was the NL Cy Young! He had an ERA of 0! Who cares if he only threw 15 innings!
/cracker jack
November 20th, 2009 at 12:21 pm
Fetch, I agree with his decision. My ears just perked up when he said “value” influenced his decision.
November 20th, 2009 at 12:24 pm
Vazquez FIP: 2.77
Carpenter FIP: 2.78
K Rate (K/BB rate disparity being an obvious offshoot of this in this case) and innings are the argument. I would agree that the best pitcher is the one that provides the most value, no?
November 20th, 2009 at 12:24 pm
o/t –
video of simmons ‘twitter ban’ has been added to the earlier post, for those who care.
- back to your earlier discussion
November 20th, 2009 at 12:28 pm
Yeah I hear you, but if we’re going to use stats then shouldn’t we look at all of them? Vazquez had 32 starts. 5 against the Marlins. The same Marlins that struck out over 1000 times this season and were 6th in the Majors in Ks. I have no problems using stats, but you have to use all of them. Aren’t Vazquez’s k numbers inflated? Almost 1/6th of his starts were against a high strikeout team. I would think so.
How does Keith Law explain that?
November 20th, 2009 at 12:28 pm
I dunno. Ive HEARD the argument that Rivera is more valuable to the Yankees than any starting pitcher.
November 20th, 2009 at 12:28 pm
baseball is done. only when a big name player is traded should there be a post.
/go hoops
//and EPL
November 20th, 2009 at 12:32 pm
Ummmm. Would it have change anything? Do the math. Answer is most likely no.
November 20th, 2009 at 12:32 pm
I would just like to point out that the people that post on the STLtoday website are in no way indicative of the typical Cardinals fan. Reading that crap gives me a headache.
November 20th, 2009 at 12:35 pm
Check his innings against the Phillies too, no? They were pretty good team.
November 20th, 2009 at 12:36 pm
And Carpenter had 3 against Milwaukee (#4 on your list), 1 against Colorado (#2) and 2 against Arizona (#1). He also had Florida for 1 and Cleveland for 1 (#7). Don’t forget his 3 starts against the Cubs who are #9 on your list. So it looks like Carpenter had 11 of 28 starts against the top 10 whiffing teams in the league.
November 20th, 2009 at 12:37 pm
I quickly looked at and the non-common opponents Vasquez faced averaged 770 runs this year vs Carpenters 705. Thats kind of a big difference. Basically thats the same difference as facing the Dodgers 15 times vs the NAtionals 15 times.
Not sure Vasquez deserved teh vote over Carpenter, but I am pretty sure he didn’t deserve all the votes over him.
November 20th, 2009 at 12:37 pm
The only tweet I’ve ever sent, read only by the strange business people who “follow me”
November 20th, 2009 at 12:39 pm
On the plus side the STLToday forums do allow for a view to how many of our fair city plan to take a trip to Oxford soon.
November 20th, 2009 at 12:44 pm
And Vazquez had 5 against the Marlins, 2 against Arizona, 2 against SD, 1 against Milwaukee, 1 against Washington, 1 against Colorado, 1 against the Cubs. And the Phillies averaged 7ks a game too and he had 5 against them. I mean thats more than half of his starts against teams that strike out a ton.
We can go back and forth and find stats that fit each of our arguments. The point being that if the stats are that close and they’re really close with Vazquez and Carpenter then I don’t think picking a guy because he has SLIGHT statistical advantage helps the stats heads because it seems like they’re throwing out actually watching these guys play.
Great, now I sound like an old sportswriter. Damn you all.
November 20th, 2009 at 12:45 pm
Yup. I have caught myself several times starting to write a comment in those forums before realizing that there is no point in trying to argue or rationalize with people like that. I have never made a single comment or post there.
November 20th, 2009 at 12:49 pm
We can go back and forth and find stats that fit each of our arguments. The point being that if the stats are that close and they’re really close with Vazquez and Carpenter then I don’t think picking a guy because he has SLIGHT statistical advantage helps the stats heads because it seems like they’re throwing out actually watching these guys play.
So if you think the stats are real close, then what percentage of assuredness are you that Carpenter was the better pitcher? Unless you are 100% sure, then basically Law’s vote is actually making the voting agree with you that like you are 95% (or so) sure that Carpenter was the better pitcher.
November 20th, 2009 at 12:51 pm
Almost invariably over a large sample size if the stats are roughly equal
then watching them play they will appear roughly equal. Vazquez and Carp were both dominant this year (I watch ALOT of baseball) pretty much every time I saw them. If Carp had 27 more innings I would have a problem with this vote, but he doesn’t.
November 20th, 2009 at 12:55 pm
i don’t see what the problem is with Law or Carroll voting the way they did, at least they do provide some sound reasoning for making their decision.
November 20th, 2009 at 12:57 pm
Vasquez was pretty clearly better in xFIP and WAR.
Also, I do not think they are throwing anything out, compared to say ALL OTHER voters who care way more about how good you entire team is than how good a specific pitcher is for a best pitcher award.
November 20th, 2009 at 1:00 pm
My opinion is probably clouded watching Vazquez put up two stinkbombs back to back against the Marlins.
November 20th, 2009 at 1:04 pm
I think voters follow a narrative, and Timmy/wainwright/carp were the story this year. Really, Vazquez, Josh Johnson, Haren, and even Ubaldo Jiminez all have an argument based on numbers to slot in under Timmy with the two cards, and Vazquez according to the advanced stats was pretty clearly number two.
November 20th, 2009 at 1:07 pm
Law is doing a live ESPN chat right now. He has not backed down one iota and is answering all kinds of questions about it. You gotta admire that.
November 20th, 2009 at 1:07 pm
There’s your problem, right there. You used your eyes to assess a ballplayer.
November 20th, 2009 at 1:09 pm
then there’s “ancient” guys like me (all of 34) who look at this and ask, “what the F is FIP?” mi all for learning new stats and what they mean, but vazquez was 15-10 — how is he even in the discussion with a record like that?
bottom line for me with Cy’s: if javy is on the mound against my team this year, i’m liking my chances. against wain/carp/linc this year, i’m going in thinking loss. that’s what a cy young winner should be.
those cards got jobbed.
November 20th, 2009 at 1:10 pm
question i have been wondering about for awhile: if most scouts, and they will admit this, use the eye test to evaluate talent over stats at the high school, college, and minor league levels, why does it suddenly change at the big league level. if stats are the way to go, shouldnt they use that the whole way? or vice versa. why would it switch at a certain level?
November 20th, 2009 at 1:13 pm
The competition is so varied at the younger levels all you can do is look and project. Numbers don’t mean a lot when your a god among boys in high school. The higher up the ladder you get the more the numbers mean.
November 20th, 2009 at 1:13 pm
though i’m a cardinals fans, individual awards bore me to tears and i don’t understand why people get all worked up over them, other than the players who in the hunt for one.
i’m more concerned with a team lifting hardware over their champagne- and beer-soaked selves in late october (november?).
that said, this just proves that keith law is steve phillips without the slumpbuster.
November 20th, 2009 at 1:24 pm
Oh, go here and page down and there’s a link to Keith Law’s epic appearance on Sports Talk radio in St. Louis last night. Things did not go well.
November 20th, 2009 at 1:27 pm
This is very wrong in reasoning. Could it be that wain/carp get more wins because their team scores more runs (granted in the NL pitcher hit so if they put it bonds esque numbers maybe they help here) or play better defense? You seem you use Javy interchangibly with wain/carp when talking about their Teams.
Say you only had 4×200 relays to see how fast a group of runners are.
Team A: 19.2, 19.5, 19.7, 19.7 for total of 78.1
Team B: 19.4, 19.4, 19.5, 19.5 for total of 77.8
Who is the fastest? What group would you rather have your team face?
November 20th, 2009 at 1:29 pm
haha, thanks i definitely will look at that. sure to be epic. and the stlforums are rediculous. the only ones ever worthwile are the highschool ones. besides that its all a bunch of idiots
November 20th, 2009 at 1:31 pm
What do they think if Javy was dropped from the ballot and Carp added at #3 would have done? Timmmay still wins.
November 20th, 2009 at 1:45 pm
im sorry, SM, and im not being a dick here, but i really have no idea what your point is with all that. what are those numbers? are they stats? do they mean something? i would really like to know so i can see the “other side’s” argument here.
because to me, .3 of something in one particular category is insignificant if one pitcher scares me and the other doesn’t. but maybe i’m making your case.
please explain.
November 20th, 2009 at 1:55 pm
Seems odd that every other voter had Carpenter somewhere on there ballot, and these two felt compelled to throw them off. Obviously, Haren and Vazquez had could years, but clearly some people missed the boat.
Problem with having people like Law in the voting is that he makes this vote to be the outcast, and then he can use his national platform to garner more attention for himself. Job well done Keith, way to make this vote more about yourself than about the best pitchers.
November 20th, 2009 at 2:03 pm
I’m also a Cards fan, and I agree 100% with this. It’s also the reason why the moniker of the “Best Fans in Baseball” is a crock of shit.
November 20th, 2009 at 2:04 pm
@ SM…I understand wins being devalued because being on a better team can help you get more of those, but the pitchers have a lot (more than anyone else) to do with causing or losing a win. Clearly Carpenter did his job because his ERA was way lower than Javier. Carpenter was a better pitcher this season.
November 20th, 2009 at 2:20 pm
Is Vazquez pitching against your team as a starter for the Braves or a starter for the Cardinals? As a pitcher for the Cardinals, he probably has a few more runs to play with. He could theoretically pitch a better game as a starter for the Braves, and have a smaller chance of winning.
November 20th, 2009 at 2:35 pm
Sorry, I figured you would know something about 200M racing. That is my bad. The point was that if you have 2×200 team and you wanted the best change to win your race as a team you would pick to go against the slower team. If you wanted to know who is the fastest 200M racer is you go to their 200M times. This does not matter if the relay team is the fastest or not, That signle runner with the best time will be the fastest.
DED: It is not clear at all that Carpenter was the better pitcher this season. An your reason is mind bogglinig because you are using ERA
November 20th, 2009 at 2:36 pm
thanks lefty. that doesnt explain SM’s numbers to me, but i think i get your point.
but by that rationale, doesn’t it make grienke’s win even more impressive? he got his wins as a royal.
November 20th, 2009 at 2:40 pm
oh, ok, they were purely racing numbers. thanks. i thought it was some FIP, DIP, HIP thing i didnt know about!
November 20th, 2009 at 2:45 pm
Exactly. Now you’re pickin’ up what we’re puttin’ down.
November 20th, 2009 at 2:54 pm
what would carpenter and wainwright do against the mets and nationals and marlins all yr???
November 20th, 2009 at 3:04 pm
so i found this out there. now would someone like to tell me what that means in english?
mainly, how was that formula arrived at (HR*13?…factor of 3.2?)
i read a good article telling me how it was like ERA and how grienke and bannister are into it, but nothing out there telling me why i should believe in it.
also anyone out there have spectacular FIPs for previous cy winners or guys who got “jipped” using it?
obviously a slow day at work for me and a topic i’m just plain interested in.
November 20th, 2009 at 3:13 pm
getonthebus: Basically, it uses HR, walks (and HBP) and strikeouts, because those are the only things that a pitcher has sole control over. The HR*13 thing is because a home run is more damaging to a player’s value than a walk or HBP.
November 20th, 2009 at 3:14 pm
oh yeah, the factor of 3.2 thing is to get it on the same scale of ERA so you have a point of reference when talking about how good a guy is.
November 20th, 2009 at 3:34 pm
I understand the use of these stats, but just because they are complex doesn’t mean they clearly define the better pitcher. If a team can field, and a pitcher gains effeciency by causing players to hit into outs does that make him any less dominant? Because the pitcher didn’t K as many batters they were are less dominant? K’s are great, but don’t always give you the best chance to win, especially if it increases your pitch count and doesn’t allow you to go deeper into games.
SM: My point of bringing in ERA is that regardless of these wonderful new statistics, ERA tends to give you a pretty good barometer of the pitchers effectiveness. If they tend to give up less runs, I imagine they win more games. Show me a pitcher with a sub 3 era that isn’t dominant. Although old fashioned, I think ERA gets you to the same place.
November 20th, 2009 at 3:46 pm
Pitchers can’t cause players to hit into outs
November 20th, 2009 at 3:48 pm
die_eagles, maybe if you looked more at these advanced stats you wouldn’t have argued Teixera was gonna win the MVP so strenuously.
November 20th, 2009 at 4:44 pm
@ So…Maybe if you didn’t love the stats so much you would have been able to see that Derek Jeter was going to win the best offensive player award.
November 20th, 2009 at 4:45 pm
wait, what?!? seriously? now there’s a statement i can’t get behind.
November 20th, 2009 at 4:46 pm
beadle, i hear that all the time. i have no idea if you have played baseball or to what level, and in no way am i trying to shit on you or imply i know more or am better than you by saying this, but in my experience, and i am an all conference dI player btw, a pitcher can definitely get you to hit into outs. if hes making good pitches, your not hitting the ball well, which is more than likely not getting hits.
although i guess i kinda see your point now, cus your still depending on the defense to make the play? was that your point?
/now way more confused than before
November 20th, 2009 at 4:49 pm
?????
November 20th, 2009 at 4:54 pm
That’s my point. I used to play and pitch too. Basically, a pitcher can influence a batter to hit it in the air or on the ground, but that’s about it. If you look at pitcher’s BABIPs there really is no rhyme or reason from one year to the next, regardless of a pitcher’s quality. I didn’t really get to fully articulate my point earlier cause I was on my phone, my bad.
November 20th, 2009 at 5:59 pm
1. Even if Carroll and Law had placed Carpenter third on their ballots. Carpenter WOULD STILL HAVE LOST.
2. As Rob Neyer said on twitter, so people are ok with 7 writers placing Carpenter third, but are infuriated by two writers placing Carpenter 4th?
3. I’m a Cardinals fan. Everytime something like this happens and I read other Cards fans irate responses…I become a little less proud of being a Cards fan.
4. A pitcher should definitely help his team win, but if you don’t understand, why the “win statistic” doesn’t show that…you need to take some remedial courses. By far two of the most useless stats in baseball are saves and wins.
5. Javier Vazquez faced far superior competition. Carpenter this year faced batters with an average OPS 18 points lower than league average. That placed him 15th lowest in the NL for all qualifying pitchers. He faced terrible competition. Vazquez faced better competition.