The Johan Santana Trade: Mets Win, Twins Lose
Baseball January 30th. 2008, 12:20pm
Took some time this morning to devour as much about the Johan Santana deal as possible. Here are our findings:
1) The Twins rookie GM got ripped off because he waited too long to make a trade
2) Effectively, the Mets got a) a speedy CF with no bat who isn’t MLB ready, b) a green teenager with a live arm who is at least two years away from the majors, c) a college phenom whose career took a serious nosedive when he had Tommy John surgery, and d) an MLB-ready pitcher who isn’t good enough to crack the Twins rotation and likely will languish in the minors at the start of the season
3) Johan in the National League may allow less than fourteen runs … before the All-Star break
4) Johan and Pedro form one of the best 1-2 punches in baseball (Brandon Webb and Dan Haren remains tops, mostly because Pedro’s health is rapidly declining)
5) Joe Nathan, pick up the white courtesy phone, it’s your agent
6) Brian Cashman picks up a W here because a) The Red Sox didn’t get Johan and b) Cashman wasn’t forced to make a move and give up any of his talented prospects to appease another pushy Steinbrenner
7) Premature look at the NL East: Phillies, Mets, Braves, Nationals, Marlins
And now, links. A fantastic breakdown from a Twins point of view, with a somewhat somber (it’s understandable) tone. Another reason the Mets handily won this deal is because they didn’t give up their top prospect, outfielder Fernando Martinez. Nice roundtable discussion where one blogger compares this deal to the time when the Mets landed Piazza. And from Mr. Baseball, Buster Olney: “In the end, the Twins wound up taking what was probably the fourth-best offer that they saw during this process, after not jumping at deals built around Jon Lester, Jacoby Ellsbury and Phil Hughes along the way.”
Photo: Icon Sports Media
70 Responses to “The Johan Santana Trade: Mets Win, Twins Lose”
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January 30th, 2008 at 12:24 pm
Twins fans can NOT be happy. They could have had a starting CF in Melky Cabrera, a starting pitcher in Phil Hughes, and two top prospects with MLB experience if they would have pulled the trigger with the Yanks. I guess I am just pissed the Yanks missed out on Johan.
January 30th, 2008 at 12:26 pm
@Platts: Hughes is young and has a VERY high ceiling. You should be happy the Yanks kept him.
January 30th, 2008 at 12:28 pm
I know there were a multitude of deals that were “reportedly” on the table, but I echo what a number of other people are saying: there had to be a better deal for the Twins than this, right??
Interesting to see what the Indians do with CC. They’re kind of in the same boat (although they’re in a better position to re-sign him than the Twins were to re-sign Santana
January 30th, 2008 at 12:28 pm
#2 should say Twins i presume.
yea, twins got fleeced.
January 30th, 2008 at 12:29 pm
atl-fan…eh, id be happy to get a good haul of young guys for CC. better than paying $20 mil per year for him and having nothing else.
January 30th, 2008 at 12:36 pm
ASU Sun Devil – Everyone seems to agree with this logic, but I do not. Do you think Phil Hughes will win 2 Cy Youngs? Johan is 28 and has at least 7-10 years left. It is not a reach to say he will win one or two more.
We have seen exactly half of one season of Phil Hughes, and Cabrera has shown all that he’s capable of.
Money being no object, I think the Yankees missed out.
January 30th, 2008 at 12:39 pm
As a Twins fan I am bummed about what we got in return. But at the same time happy he didn’t go to NY or Bos. I think the NYY deal was the one that was best for now, but at this point I have to trust the fact that the Twins consistently evaluate prospects well. It was quite obvious they had to move Santana, he didn’t want to stay here. It is also quite obvious they are looking ahead to the 2010 season when the new stadium opens.
I guess a feeling is going around that they weren’t going to win this year with him, so move him for potential. May backfire, may not but we won’t know for about two years or so.
Next up on the Block. Joe Nathan.
January 30th, 2008 at 12:40 pm
As a White Sox fan, good fucking riddance. That guy seemed to bend my entire team over every time he pitched against them. Freddy Garcia lost a one-hitter (solo HR) game to him 1-0 a year or two ago.
January 30th, 2008 at 12:41 pm
All this talk about Phil Hughes has me crazy thinking about the hot sister.
January 30th, 2008 at 12:43 pm
i can understand the twins not wanting to trade him to the AL so it doesnt come back around and bite them in the ass. But the Mets are really getting a steal of a trade for santana. is this trade really going to go through though or is this all speculation?
January 30th, 2008 at 12:44 pm
I’m glad the Mets got him, not we don’t have to hear about all their over-rated prospects anymore.
The Tinkies have an eye for talent, afterall, they did scoop up Santana and Liriano from other teams and they did draft Morneau* and Mauer. Short term, Santana and Mets won (as long as a deal can be consumated, until then, this is still up in the air.) in the long term, the Twins have depth all over the place now. Don’t forget their trades after the WS…
*might be wrong about that
January 30th, 2008 at 12:44 pm
Unless the mets for some reason don’t pony up the cash. It is done.
January 30th, 2008 at 12:46 pm
To be honest I am excited about the outfield. Gomez, Delmon Young and Cuddyer, will eventually kick a lot of ass. But right now, the Mets won handily. Seriously Santana is just going to blow the NL away.
January 30th, 2008 at 12:47 pm
The Indians are pretty happy with this trade as well.
January 30th, 2008 at 12:50 pm
Im a mets fan, but Im kinda scared. Those were some good prospects the mets gave up.
January 30th, 2008 at 12:51 pm
I’m just mad that the Sox Yanks and Mets were the only ones involved in discussions. It’s a shame that they are pretty much the only teams that can pay Santana what he wants. This system is very flawed.
January 30th, 2008 at 12:51 pm
JVelex will you be less scared when the Mets don’t have an epic collapse to lose the division this year?
January 30th, 2008 at 12:52 pm
@ JVelez:
Aside from Kazmir, how many “prospects” have the Mets traded in the past 5 years where you can say, “damn, I wish we never traded him” ?
Probably none.
January 30th, 2008 at 12:53 pm
Gonz the rumor around here was Santana basically said those were the only teams he was interested in. He had a full No Trade Clause in the contract.
I agree with you on teh system, but in this instance I think Santana basically called the shots.
January 30th, 2008 at 12:53 pm
@TBL: The Yanks have started to tighten their accounting practices. Why pay Santana $21M+ per for six years when Hughes has had flashes of dominance? Will Hughes be the next Santana? Probably not. Does he have ace potential? Absolutely. I really think when Hughes hits his stride the gap between him and Santana is not going to be as large as everyone thinks. I would much rather pay league minimum or an arbitration price than the $21M+ asking price of Santana.
January 30th, 2008 at 12:53 pm
To pull a page from Al Sharpton (who professes to speak for all black people) let me issue a statement on behalf of all Yankee fans regarding the Santana trade:
January 30th, 2008 at 12:55 pm
its also a shame that he could end up making 2x what the entire marlins team makes.
not to get into another baseball financials debate, but like Gonzo said, the system sucks.
January 30th, 2008 at 12:57 pm
@Nuts: For the Yankee Nation’s sake I hope that Cashman can control Joe G. from exploding the young arms of Hughers, Kennedy, and Chamberlain. Look no further than the Florida Marlins Josh Johnson as example A for Joe G’s horrible management of a young arm.
January 30th, 2008 at 12:58 pm
Why do people insist on saying Melky Cabrera is good? He blows chunks.
January 30th, 2008 at 12:58 pm
@Nick: I’m not impressed by Melky. I am glad someone shares my point of view. I think he is at best a fourth outfielder.
January 30th, 2008 at 12:59 pm
@ Bobb…haha you’ve got to be kidding. That starting line-up is a poor mans version of Tampa.
Twins were big time losers. Who cares if you trade within the league? Now they just have a worse product to compete with in the AL. Everyone else makes addition by subtraction.
And…The Marlins could have paid Johan. They aren’t paying anyone else. And the Twins sure as hell could have. This is a terrible lopsided trade. They literally could get nothing in return for Johan. Would have been better playing out the year and maybe winning with 1-2 of Johan and Liriano.
January 30th, 2008 at 1:01 pm
@ Nick and other Melky haters. He is a tough guy to judge by raw talent and numbers. He is a difference maker for the Yankees. Not sure if he would be for other teams, but he does have “intangibles,” and thusfar he has shown that he is better than Gomez.
January 30th, 2008 at 1:03 pm
4) Johan and Pedro form one of the best 1-2 punches in baseball (Brandon Webb and Dan Haren remains tops, mostly because Pedro’s health is rapidly declining)
Maybe the best 1-2 punche in NYC, but certainly not in baseball. This isnt Pedro circa 2000 when he had an ERA+ of like nearly 300. Pedro is a sexy name from 5-10 years ago when he was Sandy Koufax incarnate. But best 1-2 punch in baseball? How about: Peavy/Young, Sabathia/Carmona in addition to Webb/Haren.
January 30th, 2008 at 1:04 pm
the only reason Melky stands out is because he’s the only guy in that lineup who isnt a slugger. so he gets all sorts of NY media love because he’ll do what the overpriced guys won’t (i.e. hustle).
January 30th, 2008 at 1:13 pm
The Twins are building for 2010 and the new stadium. They have their best hitters (Young, Mauer, Morneau and Cuddyer)locked up, we’ll see what the young kids can do. GM Smith gambled and obviously lost when both the Sox and Yankees took their best guys off the table, the last offer Smith made to the Yanks was Cabera, Ian Kennedy and a propsect which was turned down. He had until today to trade him or Santana was not gonna to waive his no trade clause.
January 30th, 2008 at 1:15 pm
die_eagles_die, I’ve always wanted to ask this: if intangibles cannot, by definition, be measured or sensed, how do you know Melky Cabrera has them?
Melky Cabrera is by definition average. His batting average (if you like that sort of thing) is a pedestrian .275 and he gets on base about 34% of the time. He doesn’t strike out a terribly large amount (about 68 times per season the past two years), but he doesn’t walk much either (only about 49 times per year the last two seasons). And he’s been caught stealing 40% of the time (25 SB as opposed to 10 CS over his career) so he doesn’t exactly strike fear on the basepaths either.
While he’s not a bad guy to be batting second or sixth in the order, and he’s a pretty decent outfielder (only 6 errors in two seasons), he’s not exactly a team centerpiece.
January 30th, 2008 at 1:16 pm
Considering that Santana should have won it this year…yeah, I think that’s a safe bet. Especially in the National League
January 30th, 2008 at 1:17 pm
I still don’t understand how you can pick the Phillies to win the East right now. The Met lineup is comparable if not equal to the Philly one and the rotation is much better than what the Phillies offer.
January 30th, 2008 at 1:17 pm
Melky Cabrera and Phil “Hamstring” Hughes get most of their dap from being prospects for the Yankees, as opposed to being just plain excellent prospects. You put thise guys in KC’s farm system, or outfield, and there’s nowhere near the hype. And that more accurately reflects their abilities–we’ve seen all they can do.
As for the trade, I think the Twins did better than people think; considering they had no choice, and the Yanks’ offer was based more on name recognition than substance. The Ellsbury/Lester deal was probably the one they should have taken, but the 4 of the Mets’ top 7 prospects–even if their #1 overall didn’t go–is a good haul. This is one of those seemingly-lopsided deals that looks better after time, I think. Good comparison: Tribe trades Colon to Montreal for CLiff Lee, Grady Sizemore, Brandon Phillips–all of whom were highly-rated prospects still a year or two away. Worked out OK for them, though.
January 30th, 2008 at 1:19 pm
Eagles, I need to tell myself Gomez is going to be good. And for now I agree the Twins lost on this deal. But Santana didn’t want to sign and extension with them. But as far as Trades for the future they have done some good things in the past. So I got to tell myself that this will end up being worth it.
January 30th, 2008 at 1:21 pm
PRof bostons deal was Ellsbury OR Lester. If they were both in the same deal I think that would have been the one.
January 30th, 2008 at 1:31 pm
@ Dane…Why would the Twins build for 2010, when they can win right now? They would have had all of the premier hitters you mentioned, Liriano AND Johan. By the 2010, they will be pondering Liriano and who to trade him for.
@ MS…I agree Melky isn’t spectacular, but he is a proven everyday player in the AL East. He is a tremendous outfielder. The few errors, and ranks up there in outfield assists. As for “intangibles,” that is just it. You know he has something, but you don’t know what it is. It is something extra in him, a certain je ne sais quoi. That is the point.
@ Prof…Hughes was the top rated prospect in all of the minors for a while. I don’t think it was because he was a Yankee, I think its because he has that much potential.
@ Bobb…I feel for you. You go from being a contender to a pretender. Maybe we will see you again in 2010. Good luck.
January 30th, 2008 at 1:32 pm
@ bobb:
thanks for clearing that up. I had no idea he only wanted to go to the Mets,Yanks or Sawx.
January 30th, 2008 at 1:35 pm
I doubt the Mets will go to 6 year on Santana, at least not straight up. Maybe some club options. either way, I have a feeling A-Rod won’t be the highest paid player in the game anymore.
January 30th, 2008 at 1:37 pm
Re Melky:
Does anyone know what OPS+ is ? it measures your on base plus slugging percentage vs the rest of the league. 100 is the median, which is an average ball player.
Melky’s OPS+ is 90.
Not a typo. NINETY.
he is BELOW AVERAGE when it comes to hitting.
Melky may fit right in the Yankees lineup. but in any other lineup, he would be grossly exposed.
Stick that in your cap Melky Lovers.
January 30th, 2008 at 1:37 pm
@everyone: Melky doesn’t have any intangibles. Only white players have intangibles.
January 30th, 2008 at 1:38 pm
@die_eagles_die: I think that je ne sais quoi on Melky might be the fact he’s hitting in a deep line up and can run after a fly ball. he’s over-rated b/c he’s a NYY.
January 30th, 2008 at 1:39 pm
@ Nick: Only David Eckstein has intangibles, everyone else just copies him.
January 30th, 2008 at 1:39 pm
Gonzo…What is Gomez’s OPS+? Or batting average, or total games played? The guy is fast, I will give you that, but he is no Johan Santana, and as the centerpiece, the Twins got the shaft.
January 30th, 2008 at 1:39 pm
@ eagles…They weren’t winning anything now. Liriano is a huge question mark. But that said, that is why I liked the Yanks deal best. Agreed Melky is no Torii Hunter, but he is solid and can come in right away and contribute. Same with Hughes, he would have been the #1 starter for MN this year. THough there is some speculation that the Yanks deal was really never set with Hughes.
2010 here we come.
January 30th, 2008 at 1:41 pm
Torri Hunter sucks, too.
January 30th, 2008 at 1:43 pm
Gomez’z numbers were pretty lame in his ML service last year. But in AAA he had nice numbers. OBP .363. hit 286. Given time this guy could be pretty nice.
January 30th, 2008 at 1:53 pm
Melky is pretty nice. Gomez can be pretty nice. Neither are Johan.
@ Melky haters…He won a starting job over Johnny Damon, and pushed Matsui out of the lineup. Not bad for a guy that is just average.
January 30th, 2008 at 1:57 pm
I am so pissed about this that I can’t even join in the discussion. The Twins blew it. Period.
P.S. Melky sucks.
Next up Joe Nathan on the block. Hopefully they can get more for him and trade smarter. If they don’t get a young infielder, I will start to question this new GM.
January 30th, 2008 at 1:58 pm
@ Eagles:
Melky has played for 2 full seasons. Now, that may not be a large sample ssize, but in my mind (and I think many others), his career .273 BA and .340 OBP and 15 homers is a good indication of what he will be like in his career. even in the minors, he had weak extra base hit numbers.
career .294 BA and .344 OBP in the minors.
I’m looking at Gomez’s Minor league stats, and they are basically the same as Melky. So, I may sound retahhhded right now. (you got me man)
basically, my point is, getting Melky over Gomez doesnt make the trade better.
January 30th, 2008 at 2:00 pm
If they are smart they will wait with Nathan until the deadline.
January 30th, 2008 at 2:01 pm
Melky is not a dominant OF but he is only 23. If you take out his April and Sept his OPS was .842 which is nothing to sneeze at. Also he finished with higher OPS than Coco Crisp, Vernon Wells and Juan Pierre. You should check their age and salaries.
Minn should have made a run with Santana and Liariano if he is really going to be ready. They owed that to the fan base at least. Detroit probably scared them off.
January 30th, 2008 at 2:03 pm
The only logic I see is (keep in mind I’m a Twins fan, so I am trying to justify this trade) that the Twins know they can’t compete this year. With Detroit and Cleveland and even the Sox, even with Johan, we won’t make the playoffs. So why get players who are ready now when the Twins aren’t ready now. 3 years from now Hughes leaves MN and the Twins are back in the same situation they are now.
This trade allows us to build for the future.
This trade also blows and they should have jumped on the Boston one,.
January 30th, 2008 at 2:06 pm
Mozatta…Those are basically my sentiments exactly. Though I disagree on the the Boston deal. I just told a coworker how this trade is going to be great, trying to believe what I was saying.
Eagles…as for Melky is pretty nice. Gomez can be pretty nice. Neither are Johan…the Truth hurts.
January 30th, 2008 at 2:11 pm
@whoever: Juan Pierre fucking sucks. Maybe the worst everyday OF in the entire league, so yeah, Melky is better than him. Congrats. And why would we take out April and September? If you take out everyone’s exact worst two months, nobody looks that bad.
January 30th, 2008 at 2:13 pm
@ Nick:
Maybe the can take out the Mets September and re-do the playoffs without the Phils. HA !
January 30th, 2008 at 2:22 pm
I guess I just honestly don’t believe either NY or Boston was ever serious about a deal, I really don’t. Fuel the fire and make the other team panic, drive up the price, but just because some names were thrown around doesn’t mean it would’ve ever gone through.
There has to be some reasoning behind the Twins decision…my assumption is that the AL teams were just bluffing all along. In the end, both NY and Boston are glad he’s not on the other team and no longer in the AL, either.
I think the Twins have been quiet because, as a rookie GM, I’d rather take the heat from making a bad deal than take the heat for making a bad deal AND be ridiculed for getting f’d in the a.
January 30th, 2008 at 2:25 pm
@ Gonzo…Yeah I agree Melky is not a stud, but he wasn’t the most major league ready player in the Yanks deal. He was the through in. As of right now, the best piece that the Twins got is Gomez. So in other words. The Twins made a shitty deal. I think we are on the same page.
Moza and Bobb…I don’t know how you, or the organization, could think the Twins couldn’t win right now. Santana and Liriano (healthy) is as good as anyone else’s 1-2. Obviously the bats are there with an MVP/Slugger, and a batting champ. And they have a legit bullpen with one of the best set up men and closer. Teams should be so lucky to have those problems heading into the season. The Twins won’t have a team this good for another 20 years.
January 30th, 2008 at 2:26 pm
@ Titowa…The Yankees were definitely ready to pull the trigger on the Hughes deal. That is why they stopped playing games with the Twins, they were tired of being jerked around. I don’t know if the Sox were serious, I doubt it.
January 30th, 2008 at 2:29 pm
Phillies over the Mets? Are you cracked? Lineups equal. Defense Mets. Starting Pitching Mets. Bullpen Mets. Bench Mets…Plus If the Mets would have won TWO Fucking games more over the last 14 days they would have won the division and Philly would have not made the Playoffs…I have a hard time believing this division is even close this year…Besides Pedro and Johan…tell me who else matches Maine and Perez (two 15 game winners ) and El Duque with a side of Pelfrey?
January 30th, 2008 at 2:37 pm
Eagles – Seriously You are going to say Liriano is 100% healthy? anyone coming off TJ surgery is never 100% after a year. THough Lets Say he is…THen what? Baker, Boof and Slowey as your 3-5? That is a combined 619 innings. A combined 112 games.
Bullpen is nice, Set up and Closer are nicer yet. But Unless 3-5 get 6+ innings a game it doesn’t matter how good your BP Is.
THey have 3 proven bats in that lineup. Delmon Young should be #4 but then the unknowns come up. Can Lamb hit? Who is 2b, CF, and theverett at SS was a 232 hitter last year.
You think that team can compete with CLE, or DET? I guess after watching this team I have to disagree.
January 30th, 2008 at 2:44 pm
Smith should be fired today for this.
When Hughes and Ellsbury are in multiple All Star games it will be even worse.
January 30th, 2008 at 3:03 pm
@ Bobb…Baker, Boof, and Slowey are at least as good as Byrd, Westbrook, and whoever else has an Indians uni and can pitch. Liriano is a gamble, yes, but he could pay off. Johan is the best pitcher in baseball by a mile. That is a win just about every 5 days, and if Liriano is anywhere near his previous form, that is at least 2 wins every 5 days. The bullpen is arguably the best in the league. Everyone knows pitching wins, and they would have had a clear edge in that catagory. They were playoff contenders with just Johan on the team. They were actually building a team. You won’t see another pitcher like Johan in that deal they made, and the Twins won’t have a team like they could have had this year for the next 20 years.
Any time you can get a cy young, a legit #2, one of the best closers and set up man, batting champ, and MVP in the same lineup, you have a good chance. Not too many teams in the league can put up an everyday team like that.
January 30th, 2008 at 3:06 pm
From Baseball Prospectus’ Joe Sheehan (January 15, 2005/ Breakout Canidates for 2008):
Melky Cabrera. Cabrera went backwards in ‘07, but not by enough for concern. Remember that he is just 23 years old and has more than 1100 plate appearances in the majors, with average to average-plus defense (good physical tools, but very raw, takes bad routes) and a very good 129/96 K/BB. He is a mature player offensively, patient at the plate and fair on the bases (25-for-35 stealing in his career). One interesting quirk is his G/F ratio, which is 1.63 for his career and was a whopping 1.81 last season. Cabrera is listed at 5′11†and 200 pounds. He’s not Willy Taveras, but rather a player who should be developing power and learning how to drive the ball, rather than hitting the ball on the ground 60 percent of the time.
January 30th, 2008 at 3:14 pm
Eagles – You have a point, really I hear you…but(of course there is a but)Santana won 15 games last year, the Twins won 79. Unless he goes back to 20 wins, and Liriano hits at least 15 you need to get 55+ wins from the other 3 starters to win the Central. When Liriano was healthy, they had Radke and Silva, both had a couple solid years. That was 40+ wins right there.
Trust me, I wish Santana and the Twins could have come up with an extension. I LOVED Watching him every 5 days. I think if things played out right with Liriano and some luck with the 3-5 starters, your thoughts are right on. I guess I just don’t think that is how it was going to play out.
Plus Santana wanted out, and the Twins weren’t going to go over 5 years on an extension. I think they were screwed.
By the way, I am not sure anyone is beating Detroit in the Central this year anyway.
January 30th, 2008 at 3:35 pm
Bobb, they def had a chance to win. Now they have 0, and the Tigers are pretty young in the right places. So life isn’t going to get easier in 2010.
January 30th, 2008 at 4:25 pm
Jeez Eagles, Do you want to kick my dog too?
January 30th, 2008 at 6:03 pm
In the Central, who knows who will win. But the Twins did know that Santana was NOT going to re-sign, at least for what they were offering. Yes, Polhad could afford the guy, but it didn’t make economical sense. So we had to get something. If the Twins wait till the deadline, they get squat. This was at least something. Look at how the Viola trade and Knoblauch trade turned out. Pretty decent. Yes Santana is the best pitcher in the league, but there was 0% chance he was coming back. Get rid and move on.
January 30th, 2008 at 8:33 pm
HAHAHA! Knoblauch haha, are you comparing him to Santana? Paying for Santana is an economical choice because he is the best pitcher around, and he is young.
January 30th, 2008 at 10:19 pm
Yeah I am comparing Knoblauch to Santana..Are you on drugs?
When the Twins traded Chuck to NY, people got on MN for doing that. When we traded Viola, people thought it was a dumb move. Both those trades turned out fine.