Baseball Preview: AL East
Baseball March 24th. 2008, 4:15pm
Forgive us – we can’t get excited about baseball yet. Even though the season begins in a week, the NBA regular season is actually thrilling, and we remain consumed by the NCAA tournament. Still, that doesn’t prevent us from making dimestorm predictions for the upcoming season! We’ll do one of these each day, wrapping up Monday with the NL West, postseason projections, and a small surprise you hopefully will enjoy. The little * denotes a playoff projection. Let us begin with the division that you could have put in order back in December. Seriously – this might be the most predictable division of all the three major sports.
* 1. Boston Red Sox. Even with Schilling out for a couple months (sweet, more blogging!), and Beckett banged up to start this season, this is the deepest rotation in the AL and the Red Sox probably have the best closer in baseball. Barring a slew of significant injuries, we’d be stunned if this team didn’t win 90 games.
* 2. New York Yankees. Sky is blue, water is wet, the Yankees are going to the postseason. Unless, of course, the Indians, White Sox or Mariners beat them to it. Just two questions to ponder, feel free to answer them on our own: Did the Yankees improve their pitching this offseason? What about the hitting? Now, compare that to the White Sox and Mariners.
3. Toronto Blue Jays - They’re not sneaking up on the Big Two. Come to grips with that, and your life will improve. How’s about 81 wins?
4. Tampa Bay Devil Rays – Standard operating procedure – the Rays will titillate with young talent, and tease you with their potential. And then wind up with between 69-74 victories. But until this team actually spends money, it simply isn’t competing. Sorry.
5. Baltimore Orioles – Woe are the O’s, who are likely to finish with a worse record than the Nationals (again), traded away their best pitcher, and still allow a knucklehead like Peter Angelos to run the show.
81 Responses to “Baseball Preview: AL East”
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March 24th, 2008 at 4:17 pm
Did the Yankees improve their pitching this offenses?
um…I guess?
March 24th, 2008 at 4:17 pm
White Sox? Postseason? What?
March 24th, 2008 at 4:18 pm
And the Jays can absolutely battle the Sox/Yanks for the crown. Of course, Ryan/Accardo/Wells/Thomas will all get the plague and they will revert and win 75 games.
March 24th, 2008 at 4:18 pm
Chief beat me to it. The White Sox will not come close to sniffing the playoffs.
March 24th, 2008 at 4:20 pm
TBL…you are wrong about the Blue Jays….they are good…if they are healthy…their bullpen is Really good…they have a top 5 pitcher in baseball leading that staff and a nice rotation and that line up will score runs…they might not be the best at anything but there are no weaknesses…the Yankees have Weaknesses..Significant in the Bullpen and the Rotation…and I am not sold on the Red Sox…There is age there in big spots…Don’t discount the Jays…I say the Jays…Sox…Yanks..Rays..O’s for the division order.
March 24th, 2008 at 4:20 pm
I am a realist of a Yankee fan. I consider them in quasi-rebuilding mold (does a New York sports team ever actually rebuild?), and the Yankees will be lucky, lucky to make the playoffs this year. I could totally see the Bombers win 90 games and miss the playoffs.
March 24th, 2008 at 4:20 pm
Guillen ran that pitching into the ground and will be out by midseason if they’re double digits below five hundred.
Beckett should be fine and post another quality 20 win season. If Schilling can give them anything in September going into the playoffs, they should be right there to repeat.
March 24th, 2008 at 4:20 pm
The White Sox PECOTA prediction this year was something like 85 wins. Last year, that evil computer predicted they would win 72…how accurate was that.
Also, TBL, the season starts tomorrow in Japan.
March 24th, 2008 at 4:21 pm
Pretty much says what most of us Rays fans think…same old, same old…
March 24th, 2008 at 4:22 pm
Also, the blue jays have David Eckstein who can single handedly grit, and hustle his way to 105 wins. You watch.
March 24th, 2008 at 4:22 pm
I agree with TBL’s order of finish in the AL East. Orioles blow, and the Blue Jays would need every bounce of the ball to finish second. Tampa needs more $$$, for shizzle. Damn Beantown!
March 24th, 2008 at 4:23 pm
You cannot be serious about either of those teams?
March 24th, 2008 at 4:24 pm
Not if Isiah Thomas has anything to do with it.
March 24th, 2008 at 4:24 pm
I think they need to make the baseball season even longer.
/
March 24th, 2008 at 4:24 pm
As a big White Sox homer, playoffs or no, I would consider 85 wins a huge success. Hell, I’d take .500.
March 24th, 2008 at 4:26 pm
Maybe because it’s still 40 degrees in Boston…. I’m not too hype on baseball yet either. Except for the prospect of introducing my newborn daughter to the game. Not that she’ll pay attention. Plus having her around for the Super Bowl didn’t really ease that pain at all…
March 24th, 2008 at 4:27 pm
Ben, come on. It’ll take like 4 seasons to get 500 wins.
March 24th, 2008 at 4:28 pm
i hope boston rolls this year, i was too stoned during the TBL baseball fantasy draft and ended up picking half their roster.
March 24th, 2008 at 4:29 pm
/fixed
March 24th, 2008 at 4:29 pm
the Rays will titillate with young talent, and tease you with their potential.
I’m getting moist just reading this article.
March 24th, 2008 at 4:31 pm
Fixed again.
March 24th, 2008 at 4:33 pm
The Angels will win their division, so no, they won’t be stealing a spot in the playoffs from the Yankees.
The Red Sox, Tigers, and Angels will run away with their divisions. The real race will come down to the Indians and Yankees for the Wild Card.
March 24th, 2008 at 4:34 pm
Sorry Nick. The A’s are worse than the Rangers this year. That;’s kinda like picking the Reds to win the div… oops sorry.
March 24th, 2008 at 4:34 pm
Um, where are you getting this from again? Their PECOTA is 77 wins this year. So if you’re saying last year’s was accurate…
March 24th, 2008 at 4:34 pm
Money Ball strikes again!!!
March 24th, 2008 at 4:35 pm
@CRM: I’ll take that! 125 wins/yr!
March 24th, 2008 at 4:37 pm
AL West or Central can go either way, I don’t think the Yankees will have it in them this year to come close to the 92-95 wins it will take to win the Wild Card.
Joe Torre could get his vets and rookies to work together…i’m just waiting for Girardi to tell Little Stein to shut the hell up during a game and see what will happen.
get yo popcorn ready!
March 24th, 2008 at 4:37 pm
The A’s will finish ahead of the Mariners…and if Angels get hit with injuries (Lackey/Escobar already hurt), they can be in it until the end.
March 24th, 2008 at 4:38 pm
CleveRock…unfortuanately i agree. the tigers will absolutely thrash teams like the O’s and Royals, basically any team sans pitching. then theyll suck in the playoffs and Mags’ (the real one) jehri curl will go up in flames after a wayward Jim Leyland cigarette flick.
seen it a million times…
March 24th, 2008 at 4:39 pm
Nick, care to put some lumber on that? I think you are out of your mind.
March 24th, 2008 at 4:39 pm
Don’t sleep on the Whitesox. If John Danks can pitch and Jerry Owens can hit lead-off, this team will push for the Wild Card.
March 24th, 2008 at 4:40 pm
guinessgirl, I didn’t realize the d-rays even had fans.
March 24th, 2008 at 4:41 pm
A $1000 virtual dollar bet like the one I have going with Hef? I’m in.
Have you seen the Mariners lineup and defense? It’s atrocious.
March 24th, 2008 at 4:42 pm
Well in defense of the Rays…they did nearly double their payroll this off-season to about $45 million… Then again, 200% of nothing is still not very much.
March 24th, 2008 at 4:44 pm
but Nick, they had a nice year last year (overachieved) and they just threw a ton of money at a decent pitcher (who may or may not do well…doesnt look good so far)!! what could possibly go wrong (aside from everything and ichiro cutting richie sexson in two with a samurai sword)?
March 24th, 2008 at 4:47 pm
TBL, have you ever read baseball prospectus?? mariners and white sox are you serious? their PECOTA’s are 77 and 75 wins respectively.. i mean come on man.. i’d take the rays chances over either of those teams.. yes im serious..pecota has the rays at 88 wins btw
March 24th, 2008 at 4:48 pm
You’re way off base with your “until the Rays spend money they won’t compete”. Free agency is overrated. The Rays are doing the right thing and building at team that can last through the draft.
March 24th, 2008 at 4:48 pm
Allow? He owns the team, I think he’s allowed to do whatever he wants. Like suck, for example.
March 24th, 2008 at 4:48 pm
and spence, you forgot that they traded away the one offensive player with upside for this season that they had, but yeah, they’re good to go. Jose Vidro for MVP.
March 24th, 2008 at 4:50 pm
If Sexson strikes out, and nobody is around, does his swing-and-a-miss make a sound?
March 24th, 2008 at 4:51 pm
adrian beltre is still hitting in the .230’s right? offensive juggarnaut!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
March 24th, 2008 at 4:51 pm
Angelos has done a great job of sucking, he has run that team into the ground
March 24th, 2008 at 4:54 pm
superjakrs…havent you been listening to him tho? it’s the fans’, MLB and the Nats’ fault. i mean, god-forbid, who would want to go to a GORGEOUS ballpark to watch one of the classic teams and eat crabcakes? not baltimorians that’s for sure.
March 24th, 2008 at 4:54 pm
@St. Bear: I saw Sexton strike out during a Spring Training game. I am pretty sure he didn’t swing the bat once. The look of “That’s about right” on his face was priceless.
March 24th, 2008 at 4:57 pm
Fucking O’s…it kills me they play in a great ballpark..still top notch 15 years later and will be moving into Dodgertown next year one of the great Spring Training facilities…forget the Dodger stuff…just a great place to go and enjoy Spring Training…and in both of those great wonderful venues you get to watch the human equivalent of the Turd Sandwich compete…way to fuck up an awesome thing Angelos.
March 24th, 2008 at 4:58 pm
I fucking love baseball.
March 24th, 2008 at 5:00 pm
Did the Yankees improve their pitching this offenses?
yeah, ok.
March 24th, 2008 at 5:00 pm
I fucking love baseball.
Amen to that brother (even though you’re a Bravos fan)
March 24th, 2008 at 5:07 pm
Is that the ESPN comment of the day?
March 24th, 2008 at 5:12 pm
Agreed…Baseball is my Favorite sport…it’s there everyday…I am glad I have a Phillie guy and a Brave fan to talk some of the smack with this season…Unfortunately the Mets do not have a rivalry with Cleveland…The Lord knows the state of Ohio loves this website.
March 24th, 2008 at 5:15 pm
Roman…good thing you’re not a yankees/sox fan. there are a few fans of the Tigers roaming around, they’ll get all sorts of viritol coming from me.
ive been excited since feb for baseball, but it still seems a long ways away. itll feel like that when theres still 4 inches of snow on the ground.
March 24th, 2008 at 5:16 pm
@Roman: Don’t sleep on the Reds, damnit
March 24th, 2008 at 5:16 pm
Great minds flock to great blogs.
March 24th, 2008 at 5:17 pm
Two words: Dusty Baker
March 24th, 2008 at 5:19 pm
Nick..I am not sleeping on the Reds…they are better than people realize…maybe not playoff good…but definitely competitive…and I can’t wait for Opening day…it doesn’t quite feel the same since the Mets open in Miami at 4pm…but I am going to try to cut out early for Johan’s debut…I have watched more Olmeado Seanz and Angel Pagan than any grown man should be subjected to this spring..lets play for real.
March 24th, 2008 at 5:22 pm
Two more words: He blows.
March 24th, 2008 at 5:22 pm
Diesel, took the words right out of my mouth. Oh wait, or are you being serious?
March 24th, 2008 at 5:23 pm
In 2007 the yanks got 12 starts from Kei Igawa, 6 each from Tyler Clippard, Matt Desalvo, Darrel Rasner.
They made the playoffs and had 94 wins.
IPK and Hughes getting more of those starts will help.
March 24th, 2008 at 5:24 pm
Uhh Nick that’s what I was trying to say. I’m sleeping on them because of him.
March 24th, 2008 at 5:24 pm
Nick, hilarious. Except for the fact that the Reds are still going to be better than the Cards this year. That, and Dusty always kicked our asses when he was with the Giants and the Cubs.
March 24th, 2008 at 5:27 pm
Congrats on the win over IU arkbadger. I’ve never seen a team look more like they didn’t want to be playing basketball than the Hoosiers did on Friday. I thought DJ White might pull out a 9 MM and start going nuts.
March 24th, 2008 at 5:28 pm
I know you were Diesel, but he alone can’t derail this Reds train.
/Delusional fan
March 24th, 2008 at 5:33 pm
I remember back in 88 or 89 when the Reds visited Philly. Single to right field and Paul O’Neill juggled the ball, it rolls, then he kicks it to the cut off man to save a run.
March 24th, 2008 at 5:36 pm
http://www.redreporter.com/story/2006/12/29/14115/446
March 24th, 2008 at 5:43 pm
Thanks Diesel. I have never seen a team fall apart at the end of the season quite like the Hoosiers did this year. Surely Gordon is going to stay another year right? After the way he ended the season I sure hope so. What about a coach for you guys? Surely they won’t hang onto Dakich after the way the season ended.
March 24th, 2008 at 5:45 pm
Damn that video is no longer available. but nice catch there Nick.
March 24th, 2008 at 5:51 pm
Gordon is gone. Clearly he could use the extra year to work on his game, but there is no way he passes up the money for a mediocre team next year.
Dakich may be back as an assistant, but the HC search is in full force. My top two choices at this point are Sean Miller and Tony Bennett.
March 24th, 2008 at 5:58 pm
Did Bennett not retire? Either one of those would be a good choice in my opinion. I would probably say Miller would be better just based on age.
March 24th, 2008 at 5:59 pm
My bad on the spelling error. Fixed. Was away from CPU for a few hours. As for the White Sox … yes, i anticipate a rally. A strong one, in fact. Like the Chicago offense, like Gavin Floyd.
Like the Mariners 1-2 pitching combo of Felix and Bedard.
March 24th, 2008 at 6:16 pm
Tony Bennett is the current Wazzu coach, son of Dick Bennett.
March 24th, 2008 at 6:17 pm
Ugh, you like Gavin Floyd? I admit the Phils may not have given him a full shot at being a good pitcher, but he is closer to being shitty than being a good pitcher.
March 24th, 2008 at 6:19 pm
I am with Roman on this one. I really think the Blue Jays could finish second.
March 24th, 2008 at 6:30 pm
I have come to grips that my Cardinals are going to suck this season. They really need to start drafting a hell of a lot better.
March 24th, 2008 at 6:40 pm
ASU, I am happy to hear that kind of comment. Drafting is so much bigger than free agent signings or trades.
March 24th, 2008 at 6:50 pm
Season starts tomorrow night for our baseball, league. Actually, it starts tomorrow for Spence because half of his team plays for the Red Sox. For the rest of us, it starts in a week. God, I love baseball.
Sidenote, the #1 ranked Sun Devil basketball team (in the N.I.T.) has made it to the Sweet 16. Woot woot.
March 24th, 2008 at 7:00 pm
Wow. TBL, this is why you should never write about baseball. I don’t even know where to begin! Gavin Floyd? HE is going to be the guy to keep the NYYs out of the playoffs? Really? And you know I love the Bedard/Felix combo as much as anyone, but I’m fairly certain that you have to hit the other team’s pitching to win as well, right?
And yes, the Yankees did improve their pitching staff. Last year they got a combined 30 starts out of Rasner, DeSalvo, Clippard and Igawa and 17 from the de-juiced Rocket. Replace those with starts by Kennedy, Hughes and possibly Joba and I’m guessing that they’ll do slightly better than the combined 6+ ERA that the other jokers put up.
I know everyone likes the Sox and you have to beat the champs to be the champs, but if Beckett isn’t healthy, Dice doesn’t pitch a whole year like he did in the first half and Wakefield finally falls apart (which I think he finally will,) I’m not thrilled with their SPs.
March 24th, 2008 at 7:39 pm
Lester and Buchholz are going to give quality starts. 13+ wins/sub 4.10 eras for both in their first full season’s worth of action in the AL would be amazing for back of the line starters. They’ve been the cornerstones of every purposed big trade the Sox have had for the past four seasons and management has walked away knowing they’re going to be better than what they could get in the long run [besides the Santana deal].
March 24th, 2008 at 11:03 pm
Why bother discussing the AL at all? The winner of the league is just going to get smashed by the Mets in the series……
March 25th, 2008 at 7:36 am
Cortes – No, i don’t read baseball prospectus. I was not aware of anyone’s PECOTA. When it comes to random predictions like this, what’s the point of reading other people’s predictions and letting that influence you?
And just curious, but prior to 2007, what was the White Sox PECOTA?
March 25th, 2008 at 7:39 am
Think some people read too much into Floyd and the Yanks. To recap
a) Have the Yanks reaching the postseason
b) Like Floyd as the White Sox No. 3 starter
c) Simply asked if the Yanks improved their pitching and hitting, and then if the White Sox and Mariners did.
Simply put, i think the White Sox, Mariners, Indians and Yanks will all slug it out for the wild card.
March 25th, 2008 at 10:29 am
Me too. Go Whitesox! I still like John Danks over Floyd though, but the season really depends on Gavin’s performance.