Baseball Preview: AL Central
Baseball March 25th. 2008, 4:54pm
The Baseball Friend asked, and we obliged – here’s his take on the AL Central. We should preface this with the fact that he’s an unabashed Yankees fan, so perhaps our AL East projections left him (and more than a few readers) mildly perturbed. And Gavin Floyd will win 10-15 games this year, dammit! Well, that or his ERA will be above 6 and he’ll be in the minors and we all can get a good laugh out of it. Our AL Central picks: Tigers, Indians, White Sox, Twins, Royals. The Baseball Friend’s detailed prognostications after the jump.
Greetings and welcome to the AL Central preview. Thanks to TBL for providing the opening act with the AL East preview, but considering the White Sox and Mariners were considered threats to the Yankees playoff hopes in that entry (they’re, um…not,) we’ve decided to take over. (Also remember you can email anytime at thebaseballfriend@yahoo.com)
Last year saw Cleveland breeze past the Tigers down the stretch and come one game away (with THREE chances to seal the deal!) from the World Series. Minny was predictably mediocre, the ChiSox took a big step back and the Royals were, well, the Royals. Here’s a quick look at the teams in projected finish and a few question marks/key guys for each:
1. Cleveland Indians
What, you thought the Tigers? We’ll get to them in a bit. The Indians did relatively nothing in the off-season and you know why? Because they were REALLY good last year. They endured their best hitter of 2006 (Hafner,) having about 1/2 the year in 2007, but still hit enough. Sabathia was brilliant and Carmona made the leap. Yes, Joe Borowski is a train wreck waiting to happen, but they have plenty of depth to cover him with Betancourt, Perez and Kobayashi. Everyone is young and getting better, no one really had a career year. This team is for real. If Hafner is anywhere between 2006 and 2007, and they get anything out of the back end of their rotation, they are the team to beat in the AL Central.
Prediction: 97 wins
2. Detroit Tigers
Yes, their offense has the chance to be historically good. Adding and locking up Miggy Cabrera was HUGE for them, considering the stink bomb they got from Inge at 3B last year. They basically replace Inge and Sean Casey with Miggy and Edgar Rentaria and this was ALREADY a team that finished in the top 3 in the AL in Runs, AVG, OBP and SLG last year. Sure, Mags will regress a bit, but the offense will not be the problem. The pitching on the other hand … for me, it all comes down to Bonderman. They’re basically replacing a bunch of Mike Maroth, Chad Durbin and Andrew Miller starts with Dontrelle Willis, which probably won’t be much of an upgrade. But if they can replace BAD Jeremy Bonderman with GOOD Jeremy Bonderman, now you’ve got something. The bullpen is sorely lacking the top setup guys the Indians have with Zumaya and Rodney both hurt to start the season. They’ll win a lot of games and wear out a lot of pitching, but they’re just not as complete a team as the Indians.
Prediction: 91 wins
3. Chicago White Sox
Hey, they’ve got Gavin Floyd!!! (Sorry, TBL.) There is actually a lot of talent here. This team would win the NL Central. They’re sort of the Blue Jays of the Central. A very good team that just has two teams in the division that are better than them. Swisher will be great in that park and it’ll at the very least be exciting to see what Alexei Ramirez is. It’s also a shame that we’ll have to wait to see Josh Fields until they can dump Crede on someone. Really, everyone on this team is…good. But who is great? Jenks? Vazquez? Swisher? Konerko? Yawn, right?
Prediction: 85 wins
4. Minnesota Twins
Some very good young talent here, for sure. There’s certainly nothing wrong with a 3-4-5 of Mauer, Morneau and Delmon Young and Michael Cuddyer CAN’T be that bad again. I actually think Mike Lamb will do well now that he’ll finally have a full-time gig. There are too many holes in the lineup (middle infield spots and CF,) but in a year or two, if Delmon becomes what he should be and someone like Jason Kubel can emerge out of all of the OF prospects they’ve had over the years, the offense could really be something. It’s great that they signed Joe Nathan as he and Neshek should combine for a formidable back end of the pen, but the rotation just has too many questions. You just don’t get over the loss of someone like Johan Santana, especially when you replace him with Livan Hernandez. The likelihood of Slowey AND Bonser AND Baker AND Liriano all panning out isn’t great. Interesting young team, for sure, but definitely not there yet.
Prediction: 74 wins
5. Kansas City Royals
There’s more talent here than you think. Did you know that David DeJesus scored over 100 runs last year? Teahen won’t be as bad and Alex Gordon seems primed to make the first of several leaps. Billy Butler is a serious hitter that can give them a DH presence akin to the better years of Mike Sweeney. But there’s just not enough here. Meche will be fine and I really like Greinke to step it up, but when you’re counting on Brian Bannister, Brett Tomko etc., to help you face the Indians and Tigers 19 times a year a piece (not to mention the Yanks, Sox, Blue Jays and Angels,) you’re going to get pounded a lot. There are a few decent pieces here and things aren’t as bleak as they once were (I’d rather be a Royals fan than an Orioles fan right now,) but this is not a team that will be making a playoff run anytime soon.
Prediction: 68 wins
44 Responses to “Baseball Preview: AL Central”
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March 25th, 2008 at 4:59 pm
Baseball Friend is wise. Maybe I should throw out my Athlon’s baseball preview mag and read his stuff instead.
March 25th, 2008 at 4:59 pm
The White Sox are a “win now” team that can’t win now. They have a lot of old players signed for big $$$ for a long time. They can’t trade them and they have nothing left in their farm system to get major league talent back.
March 25th, 2008 at 5:00 pm
your a bit high with the win total projection for the white sox..my guess would be a significant decline with thome and konerko.. and the rest of the team isnt good enough.. richar and fields are just barely average to above average and orlando cabrera can’t hit a lick..78 wins i say..
March 25th, 2008 at 5:06 pm
Cleveland (92 wins), Detroit (90 wins), Minnesota (83) Chicago(81) KC (75)….and not as spread out as you make it…Chicago is making a huge Mistake not playing Fields from the start…Joe Crede is mediocre…and their pitching is shaky…If Brandon Inge is now you CF in Detroit..you have problems..I don’t like Dontrelle, the Bullpen stinks without Rodney and Zumaya and Todd Jones blows..Cleveland is the same as last year Minnesota has a good team with promising starters a solid pen and good lineup and KC will be a problem with some good young talent…
March 25th, 2008 at 5:06 pm
Jim – Everyone lives and dies with their projections … and even though I’ve never liked the White Sox, I feel confident they will win more games than the D-Rays. I just made that side wager with someone.
You may recall last year i predicted the White Sox would suck, and that Dye and Thome were old. All of this came true. Lucky or prescient? (Too bad we lost the comments in the server changeover; White Sox fans destroyed me.)
March 25th, 2008 at 5:14 pm
TBL, would you like to make that bet with me also? i will take rays>white sox in wins this year
March 25th, 2008 at 5:14 pm
Saying a team would win the NL central isn’t saying much. The Royals and the Rays could compete in the NL central.
March 25th, 2008 at 5:15 pm
I want in on the Rays > White Sox.
March 25th, 2008 at 5:16 pm
F all the NL Central haters.
March 25th, 2008 at 5:16 pm
TBL, I want to bet you that UNC will beat Washington State Thursday, anyone got the line for that, I may be willing to take UNC in the spread too.
March 25th, 2008 at 5:19 pm
@cbh
every line i’ve seen has it at UNC -8
March 25th, 2008 at 5:23 pm
TBL – I do think that the White Sox will be better this year, my point is more about their future. They should have been blown up last year when they could have gotten something for Dye and Buehrle. They have Konerko for two more years (@14mil/year), Dye for three more years (@$11mil/year) and Buehrle for four more years (@14mil/year). The only contract they can dump is Thome’s (final year at $14mil), but he has a no trade clause. They’re an old team only getting older. They should have gotten more for John Garland and they’re probably going to give away Crede for very little.
March 25th, 2008 at 5:23 pm
Thanks Cortes, for some reason that number scares me.
March 25th, 2008 at 5:25 pm
agree completely with jim…. their plan for the franchise makes no sense.. they keep signing 30+ year old guys to big money and they keep winning 70-78 games a year and it shows more and more when they keep fields on the bench for crede etc.. they needed to blow it up last year and trade dye and buerhle not sign him for 4 years
March 25th, 2008 at 5:28 pm
Jim – You are 100% right about the future. F’d? Seems like it. But I smell a bounceback season.
As for WSU-UNC … i have already locked up WSU at -8 for a small amount. I love Wazzou here. They have two big bodies to lock up Hansbrough. You see what they did to the Big East POY? Kyle Weaver is one of the best wing defenders in the country, and I see him on Ellington. They key will be how the small guards handle Lawson.
March 25th, 2008 at 5:29 pm
Dontrelle has stunk it up so far. Inge is only the CF for a month, then he’s back to backup catcher duty because Lance Wilson is out. If the bullpen doesn’t hold up (which I think everyone seems to believe is their biggest problem), then they’ll make a deal for a closer. Expectaions are too high this year, and Dombrowski knows it. I’m afraid they’ll wait too long though, to see how Zumaya pitches, because he’s the closer of the future.
And nobody has even mentioned Verlander, who is one of the top five young pitchers in the game right now.
March 25th, 2008 at 5:30 pm
I agree with sportsgal. Screw you haters.
March 25th, 2008 at 5:33 pm
97 is a bit high, Carmona won’t be as good as he was last year, just like all young pitchers who throw too many innings too soon.
it’s a toss up in that division. Pitching may win the playoffs, but an offense like the Tigers, which is arguably better than the Indians, gets you there.
March 25th, 2008 at 5:33 pm
Not only does the NL Central suck, but the friggin CUBS are going to win it again.
Sorry Cards fans.
March 25th, 2008 at 5:36 pm
Verlander is tremendous…its the 4 guys that follow him in the rotation I worry about…the Bullpen is VERY shaky…and its Vance Wilson…former Met..good backup. I gave them 90 wins because of the line up…I really don’t think that highly of them…I like the way the Twins play ball but their Rotation has the same issues…I like KC but they need more Pitching and I HATE the Sox (not personally but because of the composition of the team)..I gave Cleveland the Division by Default…truthfully..this Division is very overrated this year (shocking really) and I think the AL as a whole will be a lot closer together Record wise then they have in years past.
March 25th, 2008 at 5:37 pm
It will definitely be intersting to watch TBL. If I bet, I think I might take WAZU to cover but UNC is definitely winning that game.
March 25th, 2008 at 5:41 pm
Gonzo, you suck AND your Phillies suck! Cubs will be one of the best teams in the NL this year.
March 25th, 2008 at 5:41 pm
Watch my WSU Cougs give the Tar Heels a run for their money. If Baynes can stay out of foul trouble and somewhat successfully defend Hansborough then we have a chance.
It would be beyond awesome if WSU pulled out this win. If they do win Pullman will be sent into a carnival type atmosphere with drugs, orgies and other dubachery running rampant. I’m getting teary eyed just thinking about it.
March 25th, 2008 at 5:42 pm
No way, no how, no CHANCE the White Sox finish ahead of the Twins.
March 25th, 2008 at 5:46 pm
Knowing that the Cardinals suck is always a little better knowing that the Cubs will crap the bed in the playoffs once again. Good luck with that Kerry Wood at closer thing, that is bound to work out. Damn I hate the Cubs…
March 25th, 2008 at 5:50 pm
@Sportsgal – Hey I love the NL Central. Free Sweep for the NL West Champ every year.
March 25th, 2008 at 6:01 pm
YYSA, that’s humorous. Every year just because the D’backs swept the sorry ass Cubs last year? Nice try.
March 25th, 2008 at 6:12 pm
@sportsgal:
I live in IL and my girlfriend is a Cubs fan, so I see a good amount of their games (a lot more than I’d like to, as a Mets fan, but that’s beside the point). What exactly is so impressive about the Cubs? They have good hitting, no doubt, but where exactly did that get them last year? To my untrained (read: NFL fan who only watches baseball to pass the time from February to August) eye, Zambrano is overrated, their other starters overachieved last season, and their bullpen is mediocre. Fukudome or no Fukudome, this team screams “another division title and first-round sweep” to me.
btw: honestly, I don’t know a lot about baseball, so this question is only half-rhetorical.
March 25th, 2008 at 6:16 pm
It is so so so so stupid that the Twins hold off on spending a bunch of money and then they spend it on Cuddyer and Nathan.
March 25th, 2008 at 6:17 pm
You are right TBL, the Sox did suck, but for the wrong reasons. Dye finished with 28 hr and hitting .298 post all-star. And Thome only hit 35 hr with 96 RBI’s. Their downfall was not their vets, but the lack of youth able to fill in at LF, CF, & the pen. They had the worst (or near worst) bullpen ERA in the majors despite having Bobby Jenks. But, I do agree with this year’s assesment of 3rd place, Indians & Tigers to strong, unless they run into the injury bug.
March 25th, 2008 at 6:22 pm
Why will the Indians be so good. They over-achieved last year. CC and Carmona won’t repeat their years. What bat do they have besides Hafner?They are a good fantasy team, Martinez, Peralta, and Sizemore. Great stats for their positions, but really aren’t good enough to carry a team.
March 25th, 2008 at 6:34 pm
Robut Nixon:
I dis-liked your theory on the Cubs. But I want to discuss a couple of your points. Zambrano MIGHT be overrated. I don’t know yet. He got his big money last year, and he tanked. I kinda get the feeling he might have done it all for the money. I will withhold my opinion until the All-Star break this year.
You said the rest of their starting pitching over-acheived. I disagree. Lilly was worth the money. he wasnt THIS good in the AL, but I saw that potential when he played with Oakland and Toronto. Marquis had a very nice year. Fluke or finally living up to the hype? eh, I dunno yet. He was supposed to be this good 6 years ago. I withhold judgement again.
Hill is the real deal. no fluke or over-acheivement. I just looked at his number and I am in shock. I didnt know he did THAT well.
Marshall will get better. he had a decent year for a 2nd year player.
I can’t believe that the Cubs pitching is their strong point. I am in utter shock. The Cubs are the real fuckin deal this year.
Of course, i will ALWAYS get the feeling it will turn into bad news with the Cubs. Just a hunch every single year.
March 25th, 2008 at 6:49 pm
@gal: I am a Cardinals fan, but let’s be honest the NL Central isnt a mecca for dominate teams. There have been numerous times NL Central teams, mostly the Birds, have made the playoffs at slightly above .500.
March 25th, 2008 at 6:57 pm
@Gonzo:
Fair enough…the Cubs are a good team, no doubt, but there’s nothing about them that really jumps out at me as great. I definitely think they’ll win the Central with a solid record, but at this point, I’d still pick the Mets, D-Backs, Rockies, and possibly the Phillies to beat them in a playoff series.
March 25th, 2008 at 7:18 pm
I’m a Cubs fan, but I’ll say both the Cubs and the Brewers will be solid contenders this year. As for the Cubs…
1. The batting is going to improve from last year, I like that Pinella’s going to move Soriano from lead off spot.
2. Fukudome, candidate for the best name in baseball, is going to be a STUD.
3. We have enough talent on the team to make a great trade in the season.
4. Zambrano is a a top tier pitcher (you can’t tell me the guy didn’t play his ass off the first game of the playoffs), I expect him to have a great year now that the contract distractions are gone.
5. I truly think Wood is going to repay the Cub fans for all of his time spent on the DL. Unlike Mark Prior, Wood has heart and just wants to play baseball, he’s going to do everything in his power to stay healthy.
March 25th, 2008 at 7:26 pm
/fixed
March 25th, 2008 at 7:27 pm
Pinella was playing for four instead of winning at least one in Phoenix. How did that move work out sweet lou?
March 25th, 2008 at 7:42 pm
totally biased tribe fan…
why carmona will be just as effective as last year: sure, he threw a ton of innings, but he’s a sinkerball pitcher and didn’t throw that many pitches. if anything, he’ll be better, and from everything ive heard in spring training, he’s an afterthought right now because he’s been pretty reliable. jake westbrook has been mowing people down, he’s a guy who’s going to step it up. CC wont repeat last year’s play, but he’ll still be pretty good. health is an issue, but we’re also stocked all around with young guys ready to go.
hafner is going to return to form and victor, grady, and peralta are all pretty consistent thru their careers (aside from peralta’s 2006 slump). garko is a solid middle of the order guy, and franklin gutierrez, if you watched last year, showed MAJOR potential. LF is a huge concern, but a blake/michaels/dellucci/ben francisco platoon is good enough. blake and marte will split time at third, and marte is finally getting comfortable at the plate, he’ll def see some time. asdrubal cabrera looks like a good player and he’s so young he’ll do fine.
i don’t like detroit’s pitching at all. they’re offense is miles better than everyone else’s but todd jones is still the closer and both rodney and zumaya are injury concerns. dontrelle wasn’t good facing creampuff NL lineups, now he gets the sox, yanks, tribe, blue jays, white sox and angels to face on a regular basis. rogers? old. robertson and bonderman are decent…not spectacular. verlander is the shit tho, he could easily win the cy young. still, their O will get them 90 wins easy, and they’ll probably win the division. but i just don’t see them doing well in the playoffs because of their utterly mediocre bullpen.
twins…should improve. white sox…should be OK. royals…might be scrappy. but it’s a two horse race, one team will win the division (i think Tigers) and the other will win the wild-card.
im fucking excited as all hell for baseball season. gonna bundle up, 3 layers and hit Opening Day.
March 25th, 2008 at 9:08 pm
@Spence: FWIW, PECOTA doesn’t like Hafner, and I think you have to expect some regression to the mean (not total drop-off) from both CC and Carmona. No chance at 97 wins, IMO.
March 25th, 2008 at 9:43 pm
All I care about is Johnny Peralta having a career year for my fantasy team. I also hope and pray (in Yiddish) that he learns how to spell Johnny properly by the end of the season.
March 26th, 2008 at 6:30 am
Nick…97 wins is way too high. i dont expect that, just a playoff berth.
March 26th, 2008 at 7:40 am
spencer – I’m hardly going out on a limb here, but I think the Tribe will most definitely get a playoff berth for you. In fact, as I sit here this morning, they are my team to beat. That’s right…the Cleveland Indians are my World Series winner.
March 26th, 2008 at 10:25 am
Tribe ‘08 will be like Tigers ‘07. Close, but no cigar. After CC and Carmona, who will win games? Everyone has been waiting for Westbrook’s breakout year for 5 years now, and no one else has shown any consistency.
Everyone know the Tigers have the offense, but the pitching it touchy. Leyland must convince his pitchers to attack the strike zone early and often, and trust that the offense will get you some runs. The starters need tons of quality starts this year, because the bullpen currently makes me ill. If Zumaya and Rodney can come back, no worries. Otherwise, does anyone have Dan Quisenberry’s phone number?
March 26th, 2008 at 12:53 pm
Apparently the Jays brought back Lidle…so why not?