Baseball Preview: NL Central
Baseball March 28th. 2008, 2:29pm
The Baseball Friend, who we’re urging to start a blog (because it’s cool and fun and neat!), is back today with a look at the NL Central. Our projections in the Central: Cubs, Brewers, Astros, Reds, Cardinals, Pirates. We’d love for the Brewers to reach the postseason, but the pitching’s probably too weak. Thursday we did the East, and Monday (Opening Day!) will be the West. The Baseball Friend’s thoughts after the jump.
Greetings, all. Thanks again to all who have written in. I’m going to put a mailbag together for early next week with the theme of “How to correct your draft day mistakes,” as we all make them and I’ve gotten some HILARIOUS stories about them. So if you have any draft day disaster stories and would like to share/get some help correcting them, email me at thebaseballfriend@yahoo.com.
Happy to be back previewing MLB for you again. For the record, I’ll slightly disagree w/TBL on the East, but not by much. I’m going: Phils, Braves, Mets, Marlins, Nats. Today we look at the NL Central, which came down to the wire last year and is likely to do so again.
1. Chicago Cubs. Really, other than 100 years of ineptitude, what’s not to like? They have a fantastic front 3 of Chuck Z, Lilly and Hill and while Dempster and Marquis de Not Good at Pitching aren’t going to dazzle anyone, who has a 4/5 starter that will? You know what? I’m down with the redemption of Kerry Wood. The closer role is perfect for him. I don’t think you’ll see him pitch 3 days in a row, but they have a terrific option in Marmol to step in when he needs a day or two off. The lineup is solid, full of guys in their primes (A Ram, Lee, Soriano,) and youngsters who I believe are ready to be good right now (Soto, Pie and Theriot.) Fun team. And I didn’t even have to mention the Japanese guy!
Prediction - 96 wins
2. Milwaukee Brewers. I love this team. They absolutely have the chance to dominate this division for the foreseeable future. I just think they have more question marks than the Cubbies. IF Sheets gives them 30 starts and IF Gagne holds up all year (and isn’t Cordero just a total jerk for bolting this team just for a little extra coin,) and IF 1-2 of the young arms can contribute significantly (I LOVE Manny Parra,) and IF Weeks finally makes the leap … that’s just too many ifs. Where the Cubs have backups for the question marks (ie. Marmol for Wood,) the Crew is a bit thinner depth-wise. But a front three in ‘09 of Sheets, Gallardo and Parra with those insane hitters? VERY good time be a Brewers fan.
Prediction - 90 wins (possible WC contention as well.)
3. Cincinnati Reds. Better than you think. I love Dunn in his walk year. Hell, I love Dunn EVERY year! I also like Encarnacion to have a nice year and Phillips is a stud. Again, not a ton to dislike, they’re just not as good as the top 2 teams in the division. What’s interesting about this team are Volquez and Cueto. They have the stuff to dominate and if they both make real contributions this year, the Reds can absolutely contend for the wild card with the massively underrated Harang at the top of the rotation. I think they’re a year away, though. Interestingly, you could be looking at a Reds team that needs hitters more than pitchers in a year or two if they let Dunn walk and Griffey retires.
Prediction - 84 wins
4. Houston Astros. You know who this team could use? Roger Clemens. I’d say there’s a 20% chance of that happening, but that’s neither here nor there. The lineup is going to be very good with Bourn running all over the place and Pence, Lee, Berkman and Tejada (who I really like this year,) punishing the ball. JR Towles is going to be a plus offensively at catcher and even Wigginton and Loretta are solid-won’t-hurt-you Major League hitters. But Wandy Rodriguez is their number two starter. Really. Wandy Rodriguez. Shawn Chacon is in the rotation! Really. Going to be very frustrating to watch this team this year.
Prediction - 78 wins
5. St. Louis Cardinals. Just because they’re the Cards and always in it, doesn’t mean that you can pretend that this team is anything other than awful. I mean really, really bad. As in, Albert Pujols-should-just-get-the-surgery-now bad. A buddy of mine who knows some of Prince Albert’s ‘people,’ swears that Pujols has had this injury for years and it’s no different this year and that his eyes are on his historical place in the game. That he doesn’t want to miss a year ever because he wants to hit 800 home runs. I respect that. But Ankiel, Duncan and Glaus are probably the three next best hitters in that lineup. After Wainwright, the number two SP is probably Kyle Lohse who ANYONE else could have had and didn’t want. Maybe Reyes takes a step up, but this team can’t pitch or hit particularly well. I feel bad for their fans. Not good times.
Prediction - 71 wins
6. Pittsburgh Pirates. I really want to put them above the Cards. I’d take Snell, Gorzy and Maholm over the Cards front 3. I like Capps better than Izzy and they have a few decent arms in the ‘pen. I’m a HUGE fan of Nate McLouth and I believe Jason Bay will bounce back a bit. But after that, it’s really grim. The upside is, help is on the way. Andrew McCutchen and Neil Walker will probably make their debuts this year and if Brad Lincoln fully recovers, they could have an excellent young rotation going forward. Their outlook is better than the Cards’, that’s for sure. Just not this year.
Prediction - 69 wins
76 Responses to “Baseball Preview: NL Central”
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March 28th, 2008 at 2:30 pm
Cubs Suck! Cubs Suck!
March 28th, 2008 at 2:32 pm
Yes. I think that’s actually the Pirates’ marketing slogan this year.
March 28th, 2008 at 2:32 pm
Every NL Central preview I’ve ever read has always put the Astros near the bottom. I never understood this, mark my words they will be higher than fourth.
Go Stros
March 28th, 2008 at 2:33 pm
Cubs be suckin’ tits.
Krivsky: You better extend Dunn, ya sunt.
March 28th, 2008 at 2:36 pm
The only stat the Pirates lead in is postponed games.
March 28th, 2008 at 2:36 pm
Damn the Cardinals are going to suck. Yet for some reason I will torture myself by watching them every game. Why?
March 28th, 2008 at 2:36 pm
Haha 412, I was personally a fan of the We Will… Pirates slogans. What kind of bullshit was that anyways?
Example: We will amaze: ” Jason Bay once held his breath for over two minutes “
March 28th, 2008 at 2:38 pm
Fixed. That will help you get through the season.
March 28th, 2008 at 2:39 pm
The NL Central is RACIST!!!!
March 28th, 2008 at 2:40 pm
Pirates Baseball - We will 1) continue our 15 years of futility 2) continue to maintain one of the worst farm systems in the major leagues 3) continue to pray the one washed up has been (or never was - I’m talking to you Mintkiewicz) has a career year in their late 30’s 4) continue to trade away what little talent we have at the trade deadline (who wants Nady?) 5)continue to mask our futility by having dozens of Fireworks and Bobblehead giveaways to draw people to the best ballpark in the nation.
Ugh
March 28th, 2008 at 2:41 pm
Baseball friend, no mention of Steve Pearce in Pittsburgh? The future may indeed be (a little) bright(er).
March 28th, 2008 at 2:41 pm
it’s really grim
Yes. I think that’s actually the Pirates’ marketing slogan this year.
412, I am sending you my dry cleaning bill because I fuckin spit out my orange soda when I read your comment. Kudos buddy.
March 28th, 2008 at 2:41 pm
As it relates to Anthony Reyes, the local word is that the Cardinals have been quietly shopping him all spring, but can’t get a nibble — And I don’t want to live in a world in which my ballclub can’t get “value” for a 2-14 dead-arm who’s physically incapable of inducing a swing-and-a-miss.
March 28th, 2008 at 2:41 pm
My bold prediction: no one from this division will be in the World Series.
March 28th, 2008 at 2:42 pm
Would Pirates fans care if the team were contracted? Seriously?
March 28th, 2008 at 2:42 pm
The Pirates have stunk on ice for 15 years and have nothing to show for it in the way of elite prospects. Neither Walker or McCutcheon are anywhere near “sure things”. One or both will probably be comparable to the immortal Chad Hermansen.
March 28th, 2008 at 2:43 pm
@ Roethlisdog, you have to admit those fireworks nights are pretty badass though.
March 28th, 2008 at 2:43 pm
Which month do you think Jason Bay will explode in order to cover all of his other terrible ones?
March 28th, 2008 at 2:44 pm
For the record, I’ll slightly disagree w/TBL on the East, but not by much. I’m going: Phils, Braves, Mets, Marlins, Nats
TBF, you crack me up. No, I love your prediction, but the fact that you picked the Braves AND Phils ahead of the Mets make me ROFL. Only because I can’t wait for you to get drilled by Mets fans here. (I hope your prediction comes true, even though I disagree).
March 28th, 2008 at 2:44 pm
correction: Brandon Backe is the Astros’ #2 starter.
But Wandy might be as high as #3 and that is scary.
March 28th, 2008 at 2:44 pm
Thanks grunge for that friendly reminder
March 28th, 2008 at 2:45 pm
TBL - I love the Pirates–and alot of people in Pittsburgh still do. This city would go nuts if the Pirates showed any signs of life. Unfortunately, while we have a remarkable ballpark, the ownership group and management has been awful for years. I’m hopeful that the new GM and manager will improve personnel, but after 15 years of misery one tends to not get their hopes up too much.
March 28th, 2008 at 2:46 pm
I’ve never been a fan of Backe, I feel like he gets such a pass in Houston because he is from a) from Galveston b) is white c) is funny and d) because he pitched that one good game against the Cards in the 04 NLCS
March 28th, 2008 at 2:47 pm
Wandy is miles better than Backe, who is an abortion.
March 28th, 2008 at 2:47 pm
The Astros will score a ton of runs this year. Their offense is going to really surprise some people.
Unfortunately, they will have to score a ton of runs, because outside of Oswalt, their pitching is very suspect!
March 28th, 2008 at 2:47 pm
I’m actually serious about the Pirates. They’ve been crap for awhile (last time over .500? How many times over .500 in the last 15 years?), and while they have a few decent pitchers and batters, it’s not as if the hope carries all kinds of hope (like Tampa).
March 28th, 2008 at 2:48 pm
i dropped my mlb extra innings for this season for that reason alone.
March 28th, 2008 at 2:49 pm
TBL - When I say the Pirates have sucked for 15 years I mean they haven’t so much as sniffed .500 during that time.
March 28th, 2008 at 2:49 pm
@TBL: You have to go back almost exactly 15 years, to the ‘90-’92 Pirates (w/ Bonds) to find Pirates teams over .500.
March 28th, 2008 at 2:50 pm
Don’t give Wandy any credit, unless he is pitching at home he sucks
March 28th, 2008 at 2:50 pm
Jimmy, it’s more fun watching a team you know will suck rather than a good team blow it every year.
March 28th, 2008 at 2:50 pm
I agree with 412, for as much as they suck, I’m still a fan and enjoy going to see about 6 games a year. If, and oh what a huge if, they were ever to make the playoffs, this town would be electric. Hell - the town got really excited a few years ago when we managed to go 30-30 for the first 60 games.
March 28th, 2008 at 2:51 pm
Hey, I was wondering if TBL readers could give me some advice. I’m working in VA this summer and am planning on hitting up the Nationals’ new park. Now, I’m from Cleveland and don’t care about the National League. Any recommendations on teams I should try to go see play the Nationals?
(Note: I would do the Cubs but they’re coming right around exam time).
March 28th, 2008 at 2:51 pm
The lack of baseball success in Pittsburgh is a shame. That city has more history and lore tied to the game than almost any city. I’ll take the all time professional baseball players who played in Pittsburgh against any city including NYC.
March 28th, 2008 at 2:51 pm
As an Orioles fan going on 10 years of misery, this is definitely the least I have ever cared about a baseball season, but if the Orioles were contracted I would be beyond bitter.
Oh and Houston have fun with over the hill Miguel Tejada. It’s fun to watch an overpaid, past his prime guy not run out ground balls, all of the sudden not have power once there was drug testing, and basically suck as a shortstop.
March 28th, 2008 at 2:51 pm
@412
Have watched the Pirates AAA team for the past few years here in Indy.
Without looking it up, I believe they have had 75+ wins for the past three seasons.
What happens to the prospects? Do they get traded for Matt Morris?
March 28th, 2008 at 2:52 pm
The best team since the Bonds days - 1997, they finished 79-83 (.488) and their OPS man that year, the immortal Jason Kendall. Yikes.
March 28th, 2008 at 2:52 pm
Rickie Weeks is going 30-30 this year. He will be the key to the success of the Brewers now that his hand is healther.
March 28th, 2008 at 2:53 pm
Gonzo..I drilled him yesterday…I am going to make a point…and I mean it..every year people look at all these great lineups..ooh and ahh and pick them and every year the teams with the best pitching 1-12 wins….Hence my Mets..and the Cubs in this Division..I was thinking Milwaukee yesterday and then it hit me…who has the best pitching after the Cubs…the Reds…thats right the Cincinnati Fucking Reds…and guess what..that is my Wild Card Team…NL…Mets, Cubs, Arizona…REDS…I am sticking to it.
March 28th, 2008 at 2:54 pm
I’d love to chat about my train-wreck of a MLB team further, but some asshat scheduled a 3:00 meeting on a Friday afternoon.
Oh, that was me.
Later.
March 28th, 2008 at 2:55 pm
Sorry about that Pirates fans
/Fransisco Cabrera
March 28th, 2008 at 2:55 pm
@BraveSrRob
Mets (if Santana is pitching) The Reds should be a fun team with Dunn, Griffey and all the young talent.
Check and see who the Nats play in Interleague if your an American League guy.
March 28th, 2008 at 2:56 pm
@braverob: The Nats are in the Best NL division, so almost any night they are playing a division game would be good. This team is so new, that there really isn’t a rival yet. The Pirates games are fun, because there are usually just as many pirate fans as there are Nats fans, but the pirate fans usually get drunk quicker and start yelling shit at their own team.
/good times
March 28th, 2008 at 2:56 pm
Brave Rob…Nats against Phils, Mets Braves all good…Rockies could be Fun, Arizona or Dodgers..Padres are good but boring…pick out of that…or try for an interleague game
March 28th, 2008 at 2:57 pm
Roman, you are right. The Brewers staff has injury problems, so that means the Reds should be next. That’s not a bad call picking them to finish 2nd and the wild card.
March 28th, 2008 at 2:58 pm
@cbh - bad news for us O’s fans Gibbons suspension got put on hold. Now we have to actually watch him try to field and use perhaps the ugliest left handed swing ever in the history of the game.
March 28th, 2008 at 2:58 pm
@Roman: That’s exactly my prediction as well.
AL, I went NYY, Det, LAA, Bos (WC)
March 28th, 2008 at 2:59 pm
Mets put Ruben Gotay on Waivers…the Braves picked him up…since you have no idea…Mets fans LOVE this guy…I have gotten calls and e-mails about this as if someone just died…I am really upset..this blows…now I have to look at Fernando Tatis..damnit
March 28th, 2008 at 3:00 pm
Nick…Blue Jays, Indians, Angels Mariners (WC) Nott feeling the Big 2 this year..Yanks Retooling…Red Sox have holes.
March 28th, 2008 at 3:01 pm
Oh yuck, Rome.
The Mariners are horrible.
March 28th, 2008 at 3:02 pm
@ Brave Rob: June 24 against the Angels. Free T-Shirt!!!!!
March 28th, 2008 at 3:03 pm
Cardinals will finish ahead of the Astros. Also, it pains me to see the Cubs number one. The sky is falling.
March 28th, 2008 at 3:03 pm
My Pitching corollary…they are in a weak Division and the have good pitching…they play in a cavern so no need to have big thumpers…just play small ball they should be fine.
March 28th, 2008 at 3:04 pm
Roman, i am shocked they released Gotay. Who is taking his place?
March 28th, 2008 at 3:05 pm
In regards to the Mariners…they were not a fiasco last year..they played tough and faded down teh stretch..King Felix has a year under his belt and they strengthened the rotation…their bullpen was already good
March 28th, 2008 at 3:05 pm
Thanks for the advice guys. I definitely would try to time a Santana game, but I’m 2.5 hours away so it’s not like I can make a decision on gameday, drive to D.C., see a game and then drive back.
But, otherwise, I’ll definitely be looking into seeing one of those NL East teams. I appreciate the input.
March 28th, 2008 at 3:06 pm
Gonzo..Fernando Tatis…seriously…Fernando Fucking Tatis…
March 28th, 2008 at 3:07 pm
They were like a 78 win pythag team.
Bedard is probably worth 4 wins.
Losing Adam Jones is worth -1 wins (at least).
They’ll struggle to go .500, IMO.
March 28th, 2008 at 3:09 pm
@mldatx: Hahaha. The Angels are on my list of possible games to see at Camden Yard. Plus, while I love the American League, it’d be nice to see some National League teams play, though the free t-shirt is tempting.
March 28th, 2008 at 3:13 pm
Where in VA are you working? Email me.
March 28th, 2008 at 3:15 pm
Nick…I don’t get too wrapped up in that…teams like AZ and Col last year were given no real shot and look how they did…its about how you field…how you pitch and who you play…I like them this year
March 28th, 2008 at 3:16 pm
The Mariners are one of the worst defensive teams in MLB.
March 28th, 2008 at 3:17 pm
Roman, I feel bad for ya. That is just a bad baseball decision. I was more scared of Gotay than Castillo playing 2nd base. He only had 200 AB’s, but he seemed to be jelling into a nice little player. Tatis has played 28 games since 2003./ What is Minaya smoking?
March 28th, 2008 at 3:17 pm
Jimmy, fortunatly, or maybe unfortuantly, they show every Cardinals game for free here on TV so for some reason I feel like I need to watch them.
March 28th, 2008 at 3:21 pm
I disagree…they are strong up the middle…Wilkerson is good in RF…Beltre is a Gold Glover…Sexson sucks..but they aren’t that bad in the field.
March 28th, 2008 at 3:21 pm
jay bruce and johnny cueto are the tits
harang is an underrated fucking beast
March 28th, 2008 at 3:25 pm
@TBL - The Pirates are most certainly relevant.
/Andy VanSlyke
March 28th, 2008 at 3:28 pm
the Pirates won’t be “bad”, I’m guessing between 75-80 wins. I sorta like the team, and I’ll like it more after Bay has a big May and/or June and gets moved so we can bring up Pearce.
I don’t live in Pittsburgh anymore, but watch games 2-3 nights a week online. they suck and still drew 2.5 million last year, so yeah, TBL, people like the Bucs. asking that question was maybe the dumbest thing i’ve read on this site.
March 28th, 2008 at 3:28 pm
Encarnacion is predicted to have a breakout year every year. I hope he does, but would bet that he is no better than the last few years.
If the Reds sign Dunn, I can finally look forward to some good teams the next 5-10 years.
/Jose Rijo
March 28th, 2008 at 3:33 pm
Love how 80% of these comments were discussing anything but the Central, not that it is all that exciting.
I think the Cubs will win the division, but 96 wins is a little high. I’d guess between 87 and 92, maybe get to 96 if there are no major injuries.
March 28th, 2008 at 3:33 pm
Someone mentioned “Bedard may be worth four wins.” Here’s what I don’t get about stats such as those - does it take into account the fact that Bedard is much more likely to go 6/7 innings in most starts? Which in turn translates to less work on the bullpen? And though I haven’t examined the Mariners rotation last year vs. this year, let’s assume they didn’t lose anyone, but everyone got bumped down a notch.
So now your No. 2 last year is No. 3, and 3 is 4, and 4 is 5.
Between helping the pen, and better pitching matchups at the 3, 4 and 5 spot … shouldn’t that be more like 8-10 wins instead of 4?
Just thinking out loud.
March 28th, 2008 at 3:49 pm
encarnacion had a good year last year after the demotion, ill be he does have a ‘breakout’ year. hell, hes still younger than joey votto
March 28th, 2008 at 3:49 pm
@TBL: Yes, it’s considered. You also have to expect a bit of regression to the mean with Bedard this year. He’s great (carried me to a fantasy championship!), but last year the dude was insane. I’ll go on record as saying he doesn’t duplicate last year’s 1.088 WHIP.
March 28th, 2008 at 3:51 pm
Even if EE doesn’t break out, he’s still a solid pro.
My money is on him having a much better season, though.
March 28th, 2008 at 4:04 pm
J style, why was it put on hold? Jay Gibbons is awful. TBL I work in Virginia, who were you asking that of?
March 28th, 2008 at 5:05 pm
As a Cardinals fan of 50+ years, this is the first time in a long, long time, (that I can remember, at least) that there are so many questions entering the season. I love my boys, but it’s gonna be a long season.