Draft Deluge: Mel Kiper’s Matt Ryan Vow
ESPN, NFL, Video April 21st. 2008, 1:45pm“I will not be around if Matt Ryan gets past eight. I’m done.” – Mel Kiper Jr., April 18, 2008. Perish the thought! It seems hopelessly irresponsible to stake an entire career – seriously; the Draft and Kiper go together like ham and cheese or burger and fries – on a quarterback who isn’t can’t miss.
Especially in an era when the league’s elite quarterbacks are … well, check this out:
2007 Top 5 QBs based on rating: Brady (6th round), Big Ben (11th overall), Garrard (4th round), Manning (1st overall), Romo (undrafted)
2006 Top 5 QBs based on rating: Manning, Damon Huard (undrafted), Brees (2nd round), McNabb (2nd overall), Romo
2005 Top 5 QBs based on rating: Manning, Palmer (1st overall), Big Ben, Hasselbeck (6th round), Bulger (6th round)
Clearly there is a correlation between a successful QB (efficiency-wise, at least) and reaching the playoffs. But as this small sample size shows, drafting the QB position might be one of the most difficult in football. This mock draft has Ryan going 8th, but what if the Ravens remember that Trent Dilfer took them to a Super Bowl, and perhaps the pick might be better used fortifying their 23rd ranked defense (which was banged up a bit last year, but is also aging)?
46 Responses to “Draft Deluge: Mel Kiper’s Matt Ryan Vow”
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April 21st, 2008 at 1:49 pm
QB rating is an exercise in futility, garrard is an example. did he throw a pass over 20 yards last year, thatll inflate your rating.
whoever takes a QB in the first round will regret it this year, there just isnt any talent there. and why would baltimore give up on troy smith, the ONE QB who didn’t look totally imcompetent out there? on second thought, the thought of troy smith beating the browns is not something i want to consider…GO AFTER RYAN!!!
April 21st, 2008 at 1:50 pm
i hate the draft and all the coverage.. so so stupid.. no one knows anything.. its all guess work.. ughh
April 21st, 2008 at 1:51 pm
Oh please let Matt Ryan fall. I like Kiper but he seems to get dominated on television by McShay now
April 21st, 2008 at 1:52 pm
QB rating is a dinosaur, TBL. I expected better from you.
You’ll also notice that the teams with the top QBs in a given year will also have a top O-Line. There’s a thought; work on your line first.
April 21st, 2008 at 1:54 pm
Last year I went to a baseball game, DVRed the draft, and skimmed straight to the picks without all the Brady Quinn bullshit.
I will be doing the same this year. I love DVR.
April 21st, 2008 at 1:54 pm
This whole conversation starts and stops with line play. If you have a team with a great line they can throw a mediocre QB back there and he will do better than an elite QB behind an awful line. Case in point Jeff Garcia played terrible for the Lions and the very next year made the pro bowl with the Eagles… The same thing can be said for an “elite” RB, running with a ball isn’t brain surgery and these guys are all about a tenth of a second faster than the next guy. Line play, line play, line play.
April 21st, 2008 at 1:54 pm
what the cock is up with this page? Am I the only one experiencing technical difficulties?
April 21st, 2008 at 1:56 pm
page is a clusterfuck, whats going on???
April 21st, 2008 at 1:57 pm
Agreed. And I think Brohm >>> Ryan anyway.
April 21st, 2008 at 1:57 pm
Mags…couldnt agree more.
April 21st, 2008 at 1:58 pm
@Maggs: WTF? We’re not allowed to agree on things.
April 21st, 2008 at 1:59 pm
This is a great QB year, I think. You should be able to get the two best QB prospects (Brohm and Henne) in the late first round or later. I wouldn’t be surprised to see an already stocked team taking one of those two and grooming them. I think the real secret to a successful QB is having a little bit of time to adjust and a low-pressure situation. Most of the QBs mentioned above had at least one of those two things. Manning started right away, but the Colts sucked and nobody expected him to fix it overnight. Roethlisberger wasn’t expected to go out and win games for the Steelers really even until last year. It’s all about time.
April 21st, 2008 at 2:03 pm
Sorry about the video screw-up
April 21st, 2008 at 2:03 pm
ps – if that happens in the future, email me
April 21st, 2008 at 2:04 pm
QB rating is a dinosaur, TBL. I expected better from you.Say what you will about the stat – i believe all 15 of those QBs made the playoffs. Can’t say the same thing for yards or TDs.
April 21st, 2008 at 2:05 pm
@Nick P
I can’t believe it.
April 21st, 2008 at 2:07 pm
I would love to see Matt Ryan fall out of the top 10 just to see what Kiper does.
April 21st, 2008 at 2:07 pm
That’s actually a knock against the stat, right? It speaks to the team-centric focus of the statistic. Good team, good QB rating.
It’s the RBI of QB stats.
April 21st, 2008 at 2:10 pm
Neil Lomax is the 24th highest career QB rating in history. Yeah, he was such a stud. Better than Aikman, Moon, Tarkenton, Fouts, Elway, Simms, Starr, and Jeff George. What? whats wrong with Jeff George. Whitlock thinks he’s the greatest! I hate the QB rating, horrible stat.
April 21st, 2008 at 2:11 pm
The stat to use is DPAR.
April 21st, 2008 at 2:11 pm
The draft is retarded…it’s the only thing keeping the chiefs down, that and Herm Edwards. There should be a coaching draft so teams aren’t stuck with shitty coaches every year. Every coach should be up for draft. Heck the whole league should be re-drafted every year. Ugh, I hate the draft. Just to much coverage.
April 21st, 2008 at 2:12 pm
Maybe Kiper is expecting some dumbass GM to save his ass and draft Ryan higher than he should be.
April 21st, 2008 at 2:14 pm
Don’t ever eff with “Stats” Papageorgio
April 21st, 2008 at 2:16 pm
SO does that mean that Eli Manning is a good QB, cuz superbowl or not I think he’s still a tool.
April 21st, 2008 at 2:17 pm
+1 clown. He knows his stats in all sports
April 21st, 2008 at 2:23 pm
In reading Peter King’s MMQB, he’s got Henne climbing the charts to Baltimore in the 1st. As a Buckeye fan who’s also a Brown’s backer, someone try to contain my giddiness at that thought.
April 21st, 2008 at 2:24 pm
All use of the word “giddy” and its derivates will be limited to Bill Simmons, in the interest of our sanity.
April 21st, 2008 at 2:25 pm
@nomo
I don’t think for a minute that Henne is a first rounder, but I will bet my house that he (if given the oppurtunity) will be better than Troy Smith. AKA-Worst. Heismann. Winner. Ever. Henne has the size and arm to be a reasonable NFL QB and could suprise some people if he ends up behind a decent line.
April 21st, 2008 at 2:33 pm
Sandi..Sandi..Sandi…If he is a tool…He is a Superbowl MVP tool…and that is worth the number 1 overall pick and the trade (as lopsided as it was) because to me if the Chargers don’t win 2 Super Bowls with Merriman and Rivers over the next 10-12 years than that trade produced exactly what it should have…and it was GLORIOUS.
April 21st, 2008 at 2:34 pm
qb rating is a freaking joke.
some of the best qbs in nfl history had lousy qb ratings based on this jibberish.
April 21st, 2008 at 2:34 pm
Maggs, not a chance you’re going to be able to bait me into an argument on that. Would I trade OSU Troy Smith for UM Henne? Not a chance. Would I trade Ravens Troy Smith for NFL Henne? Absolutely. Either way, I hope he ends up a Raven. The Buckeyes only got a shot at him once a year…
April 21st, 2008 at 2:36 pm
Apologies to Nick. My vertiginous mood got the best of me.
April 21st, 2008 at 2:37 pm
Roman, Amen to that brother. He’s a tool with a hot wife and the entire city of New York and New Jersey loves him.
April 21st, 2008 at 2:41 pm
derivatives*
/I’m a fucking idiot.
April 21st, 2008 at 2:43 pm
Jason White would like to be included in this discussion.
April 21st, 2008 at 2:49 pm
Actually Eric Crouch had the fewest points to still win in the past 50 years or so, and he was freaking terrible, and I’m a Nebraska hater.
April 21st, 2008 at 2:51 pm
Taking Palmer and Leinart (maybe) out of the discussion, the last Heisman winning quarterback to not suck ferocious taint in the NFL was Vinny Testaverde in 1986.
2006 – Troy Smith
2003 – Jason White
2001 – Eric Crouch
2000 – Chris Weinke
1996 – Danny Wuerffel
1994 – Charlie Ward
1992 – Gino Toretta
1990 – Ty Detmer
1989 – Andre Ware
April 21st, 2008 at 2:57 pm
You can’t take Leinart out of the discussion. He’s done nothing.
April 21st, 2008 at 2:57 pm
here’s hoping matt ryan is this years brady quinn, aaron rodgers,…
April 21st, 2008 at 2:59 pm
I’d take Charlie Ward out of the discussion – at least he had a long career in the NBA.
April 21st, 2008 at 3:04 pm
While there are some great NFL QBs who had bad passer ratings, far more of them have good ones. And most of the ones with bad passer ratings were great QBs long ago when the QB position was entirely different than the way it’s played now.
It’s not a be-all end-all stat, but it’s still useful. It’s kind of like GDP/GNP or unemployment figures. They don’t tell the whole story, but they do a reasonable job of starting to.
April 21st, 2008 at 3:09 pm
Uncle Rico > Gino Toretta
April 21st, 2008 at 3:10 pm
who is Uncle Rico?
April 21st, 2008 at 3:14 pm
@consultant: I aboslutely agree. I bet I could throw a football over them mountains.
April 21st, 2008 at 3:36 pm
I’d rather have either Henne or Flacco in the 3rd round or so than either Brohm or Ryan.
April 21st, 2008 at 4:04 pm
gah…fuckin work.
ive said my piece on Henne before, no need to rehash. would i want him as an NFL project? nope. 2 things make a good NFL QB…accuracy and play in big games, two things henne SORELY lacks.
how the hell couldnt this guy dominate while at Michigan? he was given the best WR’s in college football, the best line for 3 of his 4 years, consistent running threats and what does he accomplish? NOT. ONE. THING. other than beating a Florida team starting nothing but scrubs in their secondary.
palmer had success in big games, a player he’s compared to based off of college stats. brady had success in big games, ask any OSU fan, someone he’s compared to based off of school legacy.
anyone can beat Indiana and Northwestern, but when you’re getting smoked in your biggest games 4 years straight, it’s not an anomoly, it’s a trend.