A reader, perhaps disappointed that we think Texas point guard DJ Augustin is making a mistake bolting for the NBA, passed along this link to us yesterday. If you don’t have ESPN Insider, here’s the text under “Right Move,” courtesy of Chad Ford: “[Augustin] is the second-best point guard in the draft and has a great maturity level. He’s a bit undersized, but another year at Texas won’t help that. Several teams in the lottery need point guards, so the chances of Augustin’s slipping are slim.”

Among ESPN’s many voices, Chad Ford is probably our favorite. We completely disagree with him here.

Let’s start with who needs a point guard: Miami, Seattle, maybe the Knicks, maybe the Clippers, maybe the Kings, and maybe Indiana (if they can somehow unload Tinsley). Outside of lottery teams, maybe Phoenix (heir apparent to Nash?), maybe the Wizards (what becomes of Gilbert?), Cleveland, and perhaps Orlando.

Here’s the problem with the NBA – who are the point guards on the top two seeds in the playoffs? Rajon Rondo, a second-year player, and Derek Fisher. This is still a big man’s league. Guards can tally all the massive regular season stats they want – the playoffs are for the post players. You like Billups? He was taken 3rd overall in 1997, spent five less-than-ordinary seasons on four different teams before improving his game and turning into an NBA Finals MVP (on an incredibly balanced team). Let’s not get all point-guard happy just because the 2005 class of Paul and Williams and Felton is kicking ass. Below, take a look at each first-round point guard selected since 2000. It’s a bad, bad group.

Is Derrick Rose an exception? It appears so. Augustin? Less so. Don’t get us wrong – Augustin is a fine, fine college player. He probably would have been a Player of the Year candidate next season. But we can’t fathom him going in the lottery this year, especially not with the size available (Beasley, Lopez twins, Randolph, Jordan) and plethora of scoring combo guards (Gordon, Mayo, Bayless, Westbrook).

There’s zero chance the Knicks take Augustin at five, it seems high unlikely the Clippers would grab him at six (they need a shooting guard), Milwaukee, Charlotte, Chicago and New Jersey are all set, which brings us to Indiana at 11. If Bird can dump Tinsley, sure, Augustin makes sense. If not, Sacramento at 12 is the only other lottery team that needs a point guard. One thing to keep in mind when looking at the list below – take note of the sub-6-foot point guards.

2000
Mateen Cleaves, 14 (is he in the league?)
Speedy Claxton, 20 (overpaid reserve)
Erik Barkley, 28 (so good in college, no clue what he’s doing now)

2001
Raul Lopez, 24 (bust)
Jamaal Tinsley, 27 (starter plagued by poor shooting and off-the-court decisions)
Tony Parker, 28 (stud)

2002
Jay Williams, 2 (motorcycle accident)
Frank Williams, 25 (nope)
Dan Dickau, 28 (”program” guy)

2003
Kirk Hinrich, 7 (solid starter)
TJ Ford, 8 (good starter)
Marcus Banks, 13 (decent backup)
Luke Ridnour, 14 (jury’s still out; can pass, but can’t shoot)
Troy Bell, 16 (reserve, at best)

2004
Shaun Livingston, 4 (injuries)
Sebastian Telfair, 13 (terrible)
Jameer Nelson, 20 (this is who we think Augustin compares favorably to)
Delonte West, 24 (role player)
Sasha Vujacic, 27 (solid reserve, but could probably start on other teams)
Beno Udrih, 28 (becoming a solid player)

2005
Deron Williams, 3 (stud)
Chris Paul, 4 (stud)
Raymond Felton, 5 (solid starter)
Nate Robinson, 21 (good backup)
Jarrett Jack, 22 (solid, yet unspectacular)

2006
Rajon Rondo, 21 (good defender, sort of like a young Ron Harper)
Marcus Williams, 22 (thought he’d be better)
Kyle Lowry, 24 (really like him, but he’s in a tough spot in Memphis with Conley)
Jordan Farmar 26 (so far, so good as a reserve)
Sergio Rodriguez 27 (too early to tell)