Somebody Wake the A’s, Rays and Marlins, Mmmkay?
Baseball May 12th. 2008, 4:15pm
Because the blazing, early-season start of this small market trio is beginning to tease fans into thinking maybe there’s a glimmer of hope for a run at the postseason. As a result, sheeple will continue to flood their respective ballparks and line the pockets of chinsey owners who don’t spend any money. Come July 1, each of these teams will be .500 or below; that is a guarantee. Come August, they’ll be languishing in the cellar somewhere, and everyone will complain about the competitive balance (which is what they should be complaining about today). For those of you who don’t bother pay attention to baseball standings until August: Tampa’s 21-16, only 1.5 games back of the Red Sox; the Athletics are 23-16 and one game up of the Angels; the Marlins are 23-14 and have a three game lead on the Mets. (And Minnesota leads the AL Central, too.)
Looking at the 2008 payrolls: Florida’s dead last, Tampa’s 2nd to last, and Oakland is third to last.
89 Responses to “Somebody Wake the A’s, Rays and Marlins, Mmmkay?”
Leave a Reply
You must be logged in to post a comment.
May 12th, 2008 at 4:17 pm
Wow, what a conceited post. Who knew only teams with big payrolls from major markets were allowed to be successful. Thanks for setting that straight.
May 12th, 2008 at 4:21 pm
How can you guarantee an event (3 events, actually) that you have no control over?
May 12th, 2008 at 4:21 pm
so what is the bet TBL?
May 12th, 2008 at 4:21 pm
And the Diamondbacks are 23rd on that list. Maybe more should be said about the smart front office these teams employ that allow them to compete when their competitors are out spending them 2 to 1
May 12th, 2008 at 4:22 pm
John, Jesus – You’re truly think these small market teams can pull this off? You firmly believe this?
May 12th, 2008 at 4:23 pm
Wow. That’s a bit harsh. The Marlins just locked up Han-Ram with a 6 year, 70 mil contract this weekend.
May 12th, 2008 at 4:24 pm
Is it possible that TBL knows even less about baseball than he does about basketball?
May 12th, 2008 at 4:24 pm
DBacks were my WS pick.
That’s a good team.
The three in the headline are just playing above the rim right now
May 12th, 2008 at 4:26 pm
Probably not. But indulge me on how any of these small market teams in the AL can hold off the big spenders.
May 12th, 2008 at 4:26 pm
The Rays are legit. With the state of the AL West and with Billy Beane at the helm I wouldn’t count the A’s out, although I don’t know how they score runs, and the Marlins…um yea they’re still the Marlins.
May 12th, 2008 at 4:27 pm
I’m not saying Florida is going to make the Playoffs, but they’ve got a talented young core that can at the very least compete for the NL Wildcard. And which juggernaut is going to run away with the NL East? The Mets? The Braves? The Phillies?
May 12th, 2008 at 4:31 pm
I’m also not saying any of these teams are going to win anything, but you’re going to say that all three will be gone by July 1? Really? The Marlins are crushing the ball right now. As a team they’re getting on base 33% of the time. That shows good patience and good hitting. Both of those don’t disappear into thin air. The A’s I’m not sold on but their division is playing chicken with each other. The Angels are the closest thing to competition and they aren’t exactly demonstrating that they want to run away with it. Plus Billy Beane made a shrewd bet with the dbacks while picking up good pitching for Haren.
Check out this graph for salary vs. Performance.
May 12th, 2008 at 4:31 pm
Oh, by the way, the Pirates won their 6th straight this afternoon. Small market baseball rules!!
May 12th, 2008 at 4:31 pm
The Phillies Big 3 needs to be healthy and i think the division’s theirs … The Mets eventually will get it together, and then get Pedro … but i wouldn’t be surprised to see the Dodgers grab the WC or something
Everybody loves a feel-good Marlins story, but the smoke and mirrors thing only works for so long
May 12th, 2008 at 4:32 pm
Was this post written by Bud Selig?
TBL, Aside from the payroll argument, what stats can you provide to back up this argument? The Rays have great pitching and are playing in a division where most of the big payroll teams have players on the DL making more than the whole Rays team.
The Marlins and A’s both should come back to earth soon, but I have to say that of these 3 teams, the Rays have the best chance of holding on.
May 12th, 2008 at 4:32 pm
The Rays are in a tough division but they are loaded offensively. Yes pitching wins championships (barf) but hitting keeps you in it past July 1st. Ask last year’s rockies.
May 12th, 2008 at 4:33 pm
None of these 3 teams will be in the cellar. The Nationals are far worse than the Marlins (the fish have taken 8 of 9 so far); the Rays are better than the O’s or the Jays at least (and maybe the Yanks) and the A’s are better than Texas. So let’s drop the hyperbole.
May 12th, 2008 at 4:33 pm
I would love love love to see the Rays DFA someone like Cliff Floyd and sign Bonds
May 12th, 2008 at 4:33 pm
It’s just a prediction, Hef
But no, this baseball anger has nothing to do with my fantasy team losing three weeks in a row and falling from 1st to 8th
May 12th, 2008 at 4:33 pm
Or is that “lowperbole”?
May 12th, 2008 at 4:34 pm
My team has gone through the same valley. I’m currently in third after leading the league by 12 points which is huge in a roto league.
May 12th, 2008 at 4:35 pm
Hef – let’s do it. $30 in itunes music says all these three are .500 or below by july 1.
May 12th, 2008 at 4:35 pm
This is basically the same Mets team that fell apart last season, right?
May 12th, 2008 at 4:36 pm
They are going to lose this second game
May 12th, 2008 at 4:36 pm
It’s not anger TBL and I hate to sound righteous. This is my problem with mainstream media though thinking that only the Yanks and Sox are gonna contend. This mindset forces big teams to overspend while the small market teams have to make do with what’s left while not making any drafting or free agent mistakes forcing them back into the basement. It’s a self-fulfilling prophecy.
May 12th, 2008 at 4:36 pm
@TBL: I’ll take that bet!
May 12th, 2008 at 4:36 pm
Somebody wake me up when baseball season ends.
Oh wait, it never does.
May 12th, 2008 at 4:37 pm
@TBL: Done. All three by July 1. Though as soon as I bet on something everything takes a nose dive. Why do you think I have a cubs logo today?
May 12th, 2008 at 4:37 pm
Actually, I don’t use iTunes. I’ll take a $30 equivalent of wtf-ever though.
May 12th, 2008 at 4:37 pm
remember, Milwaukee was 24-10 last year only to blow the division lead to the choke artist cubs and finish 1 game over .500. it’s still early may people. that said, the common factor with both the FL teams, they have a great core of young players. don’t be suprised to see Marlins making a run this year or next at the WS. i don’t really know anything about Oakland (other than big hurt and rich harden) so i will withhold my opinion.
May 12th, 2008 at 4:38 pm
When I don’t bet, that’s when I’m proven right. Fuck. Good game.
May 12th, 2008 at 4:38 pm
If you’ll excuse me, I’m going to go to my own site and start a one-sided blogwar with TBL.
May 12th, 2008 at 4:39 pm
I’d rank the chances of being .500+ thusly:
1. A’s, 2. Rays, 3. Marlins
I think A’s and Rays have a great chance. I do think the Marlins will collapse.
May 12th, 2008 at 4:39 pm
$30 in Itunes lol. Hef at least pick out the music for him when you lose
May 12th, 2008 at 4:39 pm
I’m not gonna do, what everyone thinks I’m gonna do and just flip out, man. I just want to know…who’s coming with me?
May 12th, 2008 at 4:39 pm
well, given the fish already won a series by being cheap that gives them the benefit of the doubt.
i truly believe the rays front office thought they’d have good pitching, but not this early. they were looking at next year. but that team doesn’t have enough offense to compete unless it gets lights out pitching each night. that won’t continue for the entire season.
when your leadoff hitter (aki iwamura) is the worst in baseball and your clean up hitter is hitting .210, you will not compete.
i hope billy beane loses.
as for the fish, don’t they have two of their better pitchers scheduled to come off the DL in june? if so, i give them a better than .500 shot at making the playoffs.
May 12th, 2008 at 4:40 pm
can’t, Nick. Hef gets first crack.
And really, it’s not the MSM so much on who’s going to contend. it’s the economics of the sport. yes, some small market teams will sneak by into the playoffs, and most seasons, sure, they will have a hot month or two. they’ll rattle off a sweep or three.
but over the long haul, regardless of how hard you want to believe, the reality right now (discounting the 80s and 90s, just looking at the 2000s) is that the big spenders are going to win out the majority of the time.
May 12th, 2008 at 4:40 pm
TBL, way to show up. Man, i love gambling.
May 12th, 2008 at 4:40 pm
Come August, they’ll be languishing in the cellar somewhere
You do realize the Marlins play in the same division as the Nationals, right?
May 12th, 2008 at 4:41 pm
Today’s June 12th right? Oh shit.
May 12th, 2008 at 4:41 pm
Hef, to clarify – the final set of games that count are those on June 30. And the teams are the A’s, Rays and Marlins. I have them at .500 and below. If all three finish .500, i take it. Any of them having a winning record, it’s yours.
May 12th, 2008 at 4:42 pm
In short the cream rises to the top
May 12th, 2008 at 4:43 pm
TBL: when say “win out”, you mean world series? Because if not, the Twins and A’s would like to have a word with you.
May 12th, 2008 at 4:43 pm
I think I should be giving you odds. That sounds like money in the bank to me.
May 12th, 2008 at 4:43 pm
Marlins, Chicago White Sox, Anaheim, STL all won titles since 2000
they dont spend like the Yankees or Red Sox
May 12th, 2008 at 4:44 pm
Let’s not forget that with interleague play coming up, this helps me as the two AL teams will be playing the weaker NL.
May 12th, 2008 at 4:46 pm
Over the long haul (i.e., many seasons) I don’t believe that a low payroll team can consistently produce a winning franchise. Over the course of one season – absolutely.
I disagree with the tone of your post. Billy Beane in Oakland and Larry Beinfest/Michael Hill in Florida have shown in the past they can construct a quality major league team with a lower payroll. And these aren’t the Rays of the past – the new management team is finally reaping the rewards of being bad for so long. And the Rays have one of the best farm systems that will get that much better in the upcoming Rule 4 draft (Amateur Draft in June).
I think the Marlins are more likely to fall back because they don’t play good defense and they pitching is suspect. The As might hang around all season – the haul from the Haren trade was sick.
Your post is an arrogant dismissal of teams that don’t fit your criteria for baseball success. Look back throught he recent pasta nd see how many teams spent a lot of money poorly.
May 12th, 2008 at 4:46 pm
So the Marlins have to go 20-28
May 12th, 2008 at 4:47 pm
mmm…recent pasta…
May 12th, 2008 at 4:48 pm
Hef, you’re choice: $30 in itunes or Chinese ladies for marriage gift certificates
/TBL
May 12th, 2008 at 4:48 pm
baseball debates are weak
May 12th, 2008 at 4:48 pm
Jesus, you should pray for spelling help in your next session. Your righteous anger created confusion in your “pasta” post.
May 12th, 2008 at 4:49 pm
@clown: you’re in charge of negotiating how much $30 worth of asian ladies is.
May 12th, 2008 at 4:49 pm
You mean like the Pirates?
May 12th, 2008 at 4:49 pm
Unless they take Buster Posey 1.1
May 12th, 2008 at 4:49 pm
He was dictating to Peter and Peter fucked it up
May 12th, 2008 at 4:50 pm
The Marlins play 46 games until July 1st. They would have to go 18-28 to finish under 500. Thats with 8 games against Cincy in the mix too.
TBL, you are in trouble my friend.
May 12th, 2008 at 4:51 pm
I think historically the A’s have the best record in interleague play since it started 10+ years ago.
/weak argument
May 12th, 2008 at 4:51 pm
i bet any baseball posts will never get over 450 comments like one ballin post did
any bets?
May 12th, 2008 at 4:54 pm
TBL…I am taking my fan hat off for a second…hold on..ok off…This small market garbage you spew is worse than my pomposity in regards to the World Champion New York Football Giants…how many playoff appearances have Oakland and Minnesota played in the last 10 years? How about the Mets and Phillies? Exactly…How many Championships have the Diamondbacks and Marlins won? How about the Cubs and Dodgers? Right…Payroll while helpful, guarantees nothing…most payroll is wrapped up in over the hill sluggers and power ptichers that no longer slug or pitch for power..The A’s have good pitching and a spunky lineup in a pitchers ballpark…The Marlins are an on-base orieted lineup in a big ballpark that has allowed their fly ball pitchers to keep the ball in the park…they Rays have more first round talent on that team and finally made the right moves to get pitching…in case you missed it the Marlins just gave Hanley 6 years for 70 mill..the Rays just locked up Longoria after they heard all spring about how they wouldn’t use his service time…it took ten years to work but finally teams are learning how to manage smaller payrolls…it works so well that the Yankees and Red Sox decided to foillow a similar formula…I can’t help the Pirates right now (sorry) but they have had piss poor management and gave big money to Matt Morris…the Royals are figuring it out…I will talk to you next year about that…
May 12th, 2008 at 4:54 pm
TBL I agree with the your post in principal because these teams have no real depth. High payroll teams can have costly vets fill in and usually have the flexibility to fill holes as they pop up. That’s why usually only 1, rarely 2, low-payroll teams make it into the post-season: the margin of error is just too thin for those clubs.
May 12th, 2008 at 4:55 pm
You think i bothered take the schedule into account? Ha.
Good luck, Hef.
May 12th, 2008 at 4:56 pm
RWH. spot on comment. The only thing I’d add is that the Pirates are going to get better now that they have a new GM, plus they have some useful pieces to trade.
May 12th, 2008 at 4:56 pm
You too. Please don’t take my comments too seriously. I love baseball.
May 12th, 2008 at 4:56 pm
Forex has $30 in iTunes credit equal to threeve non-English speaking Chinese Ladies for Marriage.
May 12th, 2008 at 4:57 pm
Hef..do I get 1/8 of the $30 gift card..and what about my dental..
May 12th, 2008 at 4:57 pm
See what happens when I get mildly perturbed about a post? Imagine what happens when you really tick Me off.
That’s right – cyclones, tsunamis and tornados.
Think about it. We are mulling going back to the real Old School/Testament on you people. It could happen.
May 12th, 2008 at 4:59 pm
Hef is gonna take the i-tunes card he wins and use it on his own website as a prize.
He’s a re-gifter.
May 12th, 2008 at 5:00 pm
I think Posey is attractive to the Rays because they don’t need Pedro Alvarez (plays the same position as Evan Longoria plus he’s a Boras client and he broke his hamate bone this season) and they have plenty of pitching (which takes out Brian Matusz and Aaron Crow). Posey is a rising catcher and if he can transition his hitting from aluminum to wood, what’s not to like?
It would be unusual, but Tampa Bay has a fully-stocked system and the top end players don’t fill needed slots. Posey does.
May 12th, 2008 at 5:02 pm
Does anybody want to win the AL Central this year?
May 12th, 2008 at 5:03 pm
Jesus, it’s hard to argue with Jesus.
May 12th, 2008 at 5:03 pm
But Posey also plays, with aluminum, in one of the best offensive environments in college baseball. Personally I dont think the whole plenty of pitching/hitting argument makes any sense. Just take the best player, period.
May 12th, 2008 at 5:03 pm
Irish, i’ll take that bet. say for 1,000,000 shrutebucks?
May 12th, 2008 at 5:06 pm
@Jesus – I couldn’t agree more with your posts about the tone and pompous attitude of the post.
@Hef – You just scored yourself $30 in music.
@TBL – Can I get the same bet for all three teams being in the cellar by August 1st?
May 12th, 2008 at 5:12 pm
How many Chinese Wives do I have to order so TBL can make pay off a bet to Ben?
May 12th, 2008 at 5:17 pm
Teams with a decent change of being in last instead of the Rays, Athletics, or Marlins:
Rays – Orioles and/or Blue Jays
Athletics – Rangers and/or Mariners
Marlins – Nationals
May 12th, 2008 at 5:21 pm
What really grates on me:
(1) The idea that people who go to these games are ’sheeple.’ Perhaps they enjoy baseball games and a night out with the family at said game?
(2) The idea that only the high payroll teams are eligible for success. Sure, there are the usual TBL backtracks and caveats in the comment area, but in the post there is only disdain for the low payroll teams.
May 12th, 2008 at 5:24 pm
@Ben: I’d say it’s the lock of the century the Mariners finish below the A’s.
May 12th, 2008 at 5:27 pm
The fact that the Mariners and Rangers are in the same division as Oakland helps them dramatically.
May 12th, 2008 at 5:29 pm
That’s what I’m saying…why rail on the Athletics and claim them to be cellar dwellers in August when they could very well be second? Perhaps I could entice TBL with some odds or different amounts depending on the number of teams in the cellar?
May 12th, 2008 at 5:30 pm
Hmmm, upon review, it would appear he would have to give me odds on the various numbers of last place teams out of the three since his claim was all three…my mistake.
May 12th, 2008 at 5:37 pm
It’s on like Donkey Kong.
May 12th, 2008 at 5:42 pm
Hef, what’s with the avatar change? Hard to keep track of who’s who when you’re always changing your name and avatar.
Filed Under: Pot, Kettle, Black
May 12th, 2008 at 5:49 pm
@RexStrangerDanger: I lost a bet to Diesel. Dbacks got swept.
May 12th, 2008 at 6:17 pm
I hate showing up to the party late, but the Rays will not be sub .500 team in July or at the end of the season. They are going to be THE team to deal with moving forward in the AL East. The Rays have only had one bad draft, in recent memory, and that is when they tried to play it conservative and took close to ML ready pitchr (One of the big three from Rice). It failed, and they are back to taking the kid with the most tools.
May 12th, 2008 at 7:05 pm
More than just two teams, man. Look big picture. I’ll try to crunch some #’s tomorrow to back up my claims
May 12th, 2008 at 7:32 pm
Congratulations on your $30 itunes GC, hef!
Seriously TBL… have you WATCHED the Rays this year?
May 12th, 2008 at 9:15 pm
Keep crunching..I have doen it in the past…it evens out
May 13th, 2008 at 8:04 am
Restated with spelling and grammatical checks. And less vile and anger.
Over the long haul (i.e., many seasons) I don’t believe that a low payroll team can consistently produce a winning franchise. Over the course of one season – absolutely.
I disagree with the tone of your post. Billy Beane in Oakland and Larry Beinfest/Michael Hill in Florida have shown in the past they can construct a quality major league team with a lower payroll. And these aren’t the Rays of the past – the new management team is finally reaping the rewards of being bad for so long. The Rays have one of the best farm systems that will get that much better in the upcoming Rule 4 draft (Amateur Draft in June).
I think the Marlins are more likely to fall back because they don’t play good defense and their pitching is suspect. The As might hang around all season – the haul from the Haren trade was sick.
Your post is an arrogant dismissal of teams that don’t fit your criteria for baseball success. Look back through the recent past and see how many teams spent a lot of money poorly.
Still makes me mad even after sleeping on it.