You’ve probably been wondering where The Baseball Friend had disappeared to. Nope, he didn’t create his own blog – not yet, at least – but his slow start in our fantasy league probably meant he was too busy to whip together some thought-provoking baseball banter. But since he rallied to beat us this week – soundly, in fact; we were cruising heading into the weekend, and his team went nuts – and this morning he felt like writing about Nate McLouth, and we’re always down for his baseball opinions. Enjoy them after the jump.

Sorry I’ve been away for so long, but I’m back in the mix and feel free to email me at thebaseballfriend@yahoo.com with any in-season questions.

We’re about 1/4 of the way through the baseball season and I figure it’s time I check in and assess the sitch-e-a-tion. A few things…

1. Why you should absolutely listen to TBF in March: I told you all about Nate McLouth (called the breakout and more on him in a bit,) Mike Napoli (called the HR AND the SB,) and Michael Bourn (yeah, he’s hitting like, .000, but I told you he’d lead the league in SB.)
2. TBF > TBL. We had our first matchup of the year this week and with 5 innings left to go in the week, I’m up 10-2. (he won, 9-2-1). Good times. (ps…wait for TBL’s response about how he was winning all week and I pulled it out on Sunday. Please limit your “THAT’S why they play 7 days a week” responses to 150 words or less. TBL is the sensitive sort.)
3. The Yankees are mediocre.
4. So is everyone else in the AL. Seriously. Who are you LOVING in the AL? The Rays? The Injuns? Certainly not the A’s in the long haul. I just don’t worry as a Yankee fan about them because no one else is that solid either. Saying this now…once Joba goes to the rotation and A-Rod and Jorge come back, the Yanks will suddenly look like the 95ish win team they are and they’ll make the playoffs.
5. Nate f’in McLouth. Nate the Great (TM) gets his own number. I loved him going into the year, but even I didn’t see this coming. But should we have? Should we be tripping over ourselves to sell high on him? The answers are Yes, we kinda should have and NO, we shouldn’t. A closer look:

For those of you who don’t look into these things, I’m here to tell you about BABIP or Batting Average on Balls In Play. It’s a tremendous stat. Quite simply, it tells you how many of a players balls put into play fall for hits. It basically measures how lucky a player is or isn’t. The average number depends on the level of play (it gets gradually lower as you rise up in level because defense understandably gets better). At the Major League level, the average is around .300, meaning about 30% of the balls a player puts in play should land for hits. Obviously, a guy who makes a ton of contact and is really fast (say, Ichiro,) will tend to have a higher level, but for the most part, think .300-.305. What this means is that if a guys’ BABIP is ridiculously low (like Robinson Cano’s .211,) he’s likely due for a big increase in AVG because he’s had really bad luck so far. This is why you shouldn’t sell on Cano. He’s going to correct himself and hit .290-.310 because that’s who he is.

Why do I bring this up on McLouth? Because his BABIP is currently .301 or roughly exactly what it was last year when he only hit .255. HOWEVER, his current AVG is WAY more in line with what he did his entire minor league career. The guy ALWAYS hit for average in the minors. He’s always profiled as a .300 hitter. The only real difference in ALL of his underlying stats this year vs. last year is that he’s striking out about 1/2 as much. Is this an aberration? No. He’s actually exactly back in line with what he’s been his whole professional life. All that’s happened is that he’s 26, he’s had a few years to adjust to major league pitching and he’s doing pretty much what he should be doing. EXCEPT for the power. THAT is the great mystery here. The guy is making contact how he always has. He’s hitting line drives at the rate he always has. It’s just that more balls are flying over the wall than ever before for him. Do I think he’s a 40 homer guy? No. But he sure is a 25 homer guy and considering his INSANELY good SB rate, if some of those HR turn into singles, it probably means his SB will rise up to where they’ve been in the past.

Bottom line, the dude is good. Really good. Expect a .300 AVG, 25 HR, 20ish steals (could be MUCH higher since he never gets thrown out stealing,) and as many R and RBI as the lineup allows for the next several years. Unless you’re getting a top 25ish talent back in a single year league, don’t sell. Just enjoy the ride.