Nick Swisher For Nothing? Sure, Why Not?
Baseball November 14th. 2008, 1:30pm
Intern Bill is thrilled the Yankees got Nick Swisher on the cheap.
Late Wednesday, the New York Yankees acquired OF/1B Nick Swisher from the Chicago White Sox for INF Wilson Betemit, SP Jeff Marquez and another minor leaguer.
The move gives NY a potential 1B in the event they are not available to acquire Mark Teixeira via free agency, or a very good (and relatively inexpensive) corner OF option. The White Sox get a versatile infielder who is still arbitration eligible and might be a replacement level option at 3B and two guys who will probably never be impact players.
Net/net, this trade is robbery of White Sox GM Kenny Williams by Yankees GM Brian Cashman. Nick Swisher was a guy who two years ago hit 36 home runs and got on base at a 38 percent rate. Williams and Chicago’s manager Ozzie Guillen decided to not only put Swisher, a lousy defender, in centerfield, but also put him at the top of the order. Naturally, he performed miserably; his coach hated him, and he was effectively benched for the last part of the season. So in one down year (and some might say “unluckyâ€) where he was admittedly one of the lesser players in baseball, they sell him off for 10 cents on the dollar for guys who aren’t even good. To top it off, Bill James says that Swisher should rebound this year. Atrocious trade.
Now Ozzie Guillen is saying he wants “younger” and “faster” players, which is spooky enough in itself. Between this, the scouting fiasco that left their farm system full of damaged goods, and the rise of the Cleveland Indians and the Minnesota Twins, the days of the Southsiders as division powers, playoff threats, and anything
more than a second-tier team are over.
Kenny Williams is one of the old school GMs who runs his organization on the principle of scouting, and not one of these ivy-league glorified children who think a slide rule and a spreadsheet is a viable alternative to old school baseball. It’s not. Any GM who’s tried to run their organization on mostly sabermetric principles without an egregious amount of money to spend has always ended in failure.
Williams has been right before many times, and made fools of many a pundit. But we think this trade sucks for the ChiSox. Here’s hoping Kenny proves us wrong again.
88 Responses to “Nick Swisher For Nothing? Sure, Why Not?”
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November 14th, 2008 at 1:36 pm
Yeah, he probably gets excited when the new edition of Entertainment Weekly comes in the mail.
November 14th, 2008 at 1:37 pm
Too bad Giambi isn’t still here so they could throw kegs at each other.
November 14th, 2008 at 1:39 pm
That’s tOSU product Nick Swisher.
November 14th, 2008 at 1:39 pm
Mr. Moneyball.
November 14th, 2008 at 1:41 pm
I’ll take Kenny Williams track record over Cashman. Cashman has always had no limit and could buy whomever he wants/needed. Williams has put together some good trades (see: Quentin, Carlos;).
And good riddance Swisher. The only thing he did was make me miss Aaron Rowland more.
November 14th, 2008 at 1:42 pm
This isn’t good analysis, but it isn’t terrible. How come intern bill has such wide swings in output, from “only slightly bad” to “setting writing back 75 years awful.”
November 14th, 2008 at 1:43 pm
He’s also put together some bad trades (see: Young, Chris and Griffey, Ken, Jr.).
November 14th, 2008 at 1:43 pm
Isn’t Marquez one of the guys the Yankees didn’t want to trade for Santana last year?
Also Swisher is closer to last year than he is to his 36 Hr year. Look at his career stats. To suggest Swisher is somehow a 35 homerun monster is ridiculous.
Brady Anderson hit 50 one year.
November 14th, 2008 at 1:44 pm
The Tigers aren’t on the rise as well? Yea they had a poor year last year, but they were in the WS in 2006 which was all of two years ago.
November 14th, 2008 at 1:44 pm
So Kenny Williams sucks because he relies on scouting, but being a sabermetric GM sucks too?
PS why does putting Nick Swisher at the top of the lineup mean he would naturally fail miserably?
November 14th, 2008 at 1:45 pm
Here’s hoping Kenny proves us wrong again.
He will my friend. Don’t doubt the Ken Dog. Ill be happy when Orlando Cabrera and Javier Vazques are gone.
November 14th, 2008 at 1:46 pm
THis is a lopsided trade but take a look at Ken Rosenthal’s latest article on Fox Sports….He thinks Kenny Willimas is up to something and he is clearing salary to do it. He has Dye, Jenks and Vasquez on the trading block. Who knows? But he has done similar things before.
November 14th, 2008 at 1:46 pm
Because he did “fail.”
/Science
November 14th, 2008 at 1:46 pm
MLJ hates them some Intern Bill. Did he “Cowherd” you guys or something?
November 14th, 2008 at 1:46 pm
I believe that’s usually referred to as a .380 OBP
November 14th, 2008 at 1:48 pm
Nick I don’t know if there was sarcasm in there, but he didn’t fail because he hit leadoff, that’s just retarded.
November 14th, 2008 at 1:49 pm
fetch: that was a bill-ism. Thought the /science gave it away.
November 14th, 2008 at 1:49 pm
It’s the post hoc analysis Bill is famous for.
November 14th, 2008 at 1:49 pm
i totally skipped over the /science. It’s Friday, I should be drunk already.
November 14th, 2008 at 1:51 pm
That’s a fair point Hef, one I can’t defend (both trades were bad). But he also landed us Gavin Floyd and John Danks (while giving up on Brandon McCarthy), picked up Bobby Jenks from nowhere, and added Alexi Ramirez (the best Rookie not named Evan Longoria). He got Jermaine Dye for a cheap 2 year contract after JD spent time in Oakland, and I’d argue that the Cabrera/Garland trade worked out in the Sox favor as well. Sure, he has made some dumb mistakes (like Konerko’s contract), but compared to Cashman, I like the job he has done.
November 14th, 2008 at 1:53 pm
I’m confused. The Yankees robbed the ChiSox and their old school GM blind by acquiring Swisher. The mainstream bible of Sabermetrics is Moneyball, which was very heavy on pro-Swisher content. But Sabermetrics suck and old school scouting is good?
November 14th, 2008 at 1:55 pm
the stat-boys do for well-documented reasons…
i hate everybody so that’s my excuse.
November 14th, 2008 at 1:55 pm
rant, if you start trying to understand what Intern Bill writes, your head will explode.
Brian Cashman at drafting > Kenny Williams at drafting. You have to look at that too. All things equal, I’d rather have Cashman as the GM of my team.
November 14th, 2008 at 1:56 pm
I’m confused. The Yankees robbed the ChiSox and their old school GM blind by acquiring Swisher. The mainstream bible of Sabermetrics is Moneyball, which was very heavy on pro-Swisher content. But Sabermetrics suck and old school scouting is good?
I agree. This piece is completely incoherent. A bunch of independently decent points that run together into a big pile of slop.
The chick in the picture looks like a thin, female, kinda hot Jay Leno.
November 14th, 2008 at 1:57 pm
How did the Yankees “rob” the ChiSox? I still don’t see it. Swisher had a terrible year after having one solid year. Didn’t this work for Anrew Jones as well?
November 14th, 2008 at 1:59 pm
I don’t know about that. Williams makes more decisions on his own, without Reinsdorf’s seal of approval on every move, while Cashman can’t hardly make a move without a Steinbrenner looking over his shoulder.
November 14th, 2008 at 1:59 pm
yea, because andruw jones only had ONE “solid” year…
i see what you’re saying tho…but swisher is perfect for the yanks. even tho he had a HORRIBLE year, he still got on base a relative shit-ton. he’s a versatile defender. they got him for pennies on the dollar.
terrible trade by the pale ho’s.
November 14th, 2008 at 1:59 pm
By “stat-boys” do you mean the two guys who write for MLJ who may or may not have read Moneyball and somehow think stats are the end all be all of baseball scouting and player value?
November 14th, 2008 at 2:00 pm
It would work better if you switched the order of those two sentences.
November 14th, 2008 at 2:01 pm
Mags…by “stat-boys” i mean the three (or four) guys who look at statistical production and derive player value from that, a progressive approach that works for them. believe it or not (because i know you don’t), they write some real solid shit.
November 14th, 2008 at 2:02 pm
I think when you take away the Sirotka/Wells (face it, nobody won that) trade, I’d say Kenny Williams has done a good job for the White Sox.
November 14th, 2008 at 2:02 pm
pretty large fail.
November 14th, 2008 at 2:02 pm
What the heck was that? So Intern Bill thinks the sox got robbed blind, but yet, old school kenny williams knows what he’s doing because he values scouting??? Pick one side or the other, if he values scouting, there might a reason why he’d rather have a bunch of minor leaguers over swisher. I’m sad to see Swish go, liked his personality, but at least, when he was with the sox, it seemed like he was always trying to swing for a bomb. I think kenny is up to something. he learned from last year and isn’t tipping his plans.
November 14th, 2008 at 2:03 pm
Oh..no..here we go..have a good weekend everybody!
November 14th, 2008 at 2:04 pm
you mean there’s a white sox player who DOESN’T do that?
/orlando cabrera doesn’t count
November 14th, 2008 at 2:05 pm
and im an idiot…i’ll shut up now
November 14th, 2008 at 2:05 pm
I’m not saying I started the whole “Intern Bill sucks at writing and living” thing (I did), but let the record show that I haven’t been busting his ass lately.
November 14th, 2008 at 2:08 pm
i should probably read these things before commenting but…
mark shapiro does this and he ended up a massive choke job from his pitchers away from going (and PROBABLY winning) the WS.
November 14th, 2008 at 2:09 pm
Wow, spence. I didn’t even read the last half of that billbortion, but that single line is really terrible.
November 14th, 2008 at 2:13 pm
@spence
So your MLJ guys actually do the data analysis? Very doubtful. Also if by “write some real solid shit” you mean “copy others ideas and re-write it on MLJ in their own words” then I may find what you claim to be more believeable.
November 14th, 2008 at 2:15 pm
Mags…see, id be more likely to defend us if you didn’t hate each and every one of us (save Hef and clown) with unbridled enthusiasm.
to each his own, i guess.
November 14th, 2008 at 2:23 pm
You’re right to hate them Maggs. There all talentless assholes. All they do is copy and paste. They have no original thoughts and barely form coherent sentences.
/sincere
November 14th, 2008 at 2:24 pm
@Maggs: when did you start commenting on TBL?
/serious question
/not trying to be a dick or get involved in this lame fight between Maggs and MLJ
November 14th, 2008 at 2:24 pm
and then i steal all their ideas. it is pure genius!
November 14th, 2008 at 2:28 pm
No hate. I am just trying to understand why your opinions (or those of you other non-professional writers) should be taken any more seriously than those of Intern Bill? You are both basically one in the same. Both taking your ill-founded, un-original and meaningless (to 99.9% of the world) opinions and attempting to share them with a readership. The only difference is Intern Bill doesn’t go on your site and tell you how terrible you guys are.
November 14th, 2008 at 2:30 pm
Didn’t the White Sox just win this division? Now they are worse because they lost an unproductive player that didn’t fit their scheme? I am confused. Also, they dumped a tremendous amount of cash.
November 14th, 2008 at 2:30 pm
How do you know that? SSS
November 14th, 2008 at 2:31 pm
/Nick P’d
November 14th, 2008 at 2:32 pm
@phat
That is like trying to ask who the 4th girl I have been with was… pretty cloudy.
November 14th, 2008 at 2:33 pm
Another difference is that we (except Fetch) all have functioning brains that understand how to look at information and analyze it without drooling all over ourselves and our sister/wives. Honest mistake. You can have your apology on my desk by tomorrow (yes, I know tomorrow is Saturday but I have to hold you to it).
Regards,
Heffy Hefflestein
November 14th, 2008 at 2:33 pm
i have plenty of readers that tell me that at times. those are the best kind.
November 14th, 2008 at 2:37 pm
Hef,
Another difference is when you guys make fun of Intern Bill, he doesn’t whine about it. When I make fun of your blog, you guys come down from the hills to defend it, making one believe the writing can’t defend itself by being, you know, of any quality or substance.
November 14th, 2008 at 2:40 pm
Full disclosure: I never defend MLJ.
November 14th, 2008 at 2:40 pm
Maggs, we’ve been dying for Bill to come and defend his awful opinions. We want him to answer a few questions. The jokes and attacks were a result of him never answering simple questions. Also, we mock you because you make fun of stuff without having read it….also you get mocked because you’re a bit of a reactionary who blows up like a petulant child. Mostly, we do it for sport. You think any of us care when people make fun our site? We make fun of it more than anyone (see DangerSeeker, RexKramer).
November 14th, 2008 at 2:42 pm
But those of us who have and do defend MLJ, how is that any different than you defending Rich Rod*? If he’s such a good coach, won’t that manifest itself in on-field success? Why does he need your help?
*or Dumars, or Sheed, or whatever other Michigan personality your slobbing that day.
November 14th, 2008 at 2:42 pm
/sg’d
November 14th, 2008 at 2:43 pm
Leave Dumars out of this.
November 14th, 2008 at 2:46 pm
yea, he has the plague and we don’t want any of that.
/charlemange thinks plague jokes are funny
November 14th, 2008 at 2:47 pm
Was calling me a petulant child really necessary?
November 14th, 2008 at 2:48 pm
can’t we all just get along?
/except for next week, mags…we have some business to attend to
November 14th, 2008 at 2:48 pm
When logic fails, I resort to common name calling.
November 14th, 2008 at 2:50 pm
I think the worst thing said on here is that the Swisher deal is any better than anything involving Andruw Jones. Jones has put up much better numbers over his career.
November 14th, 2008 at 2:51 pm
Sorry man, I get seeing that shit from Nick P. He is an idiot. I just figured you were better than that. I am trying to argue that making fun of Intern Bill is just not funny, never was. I guess you guys in your infinite wisdom think it is cool to do, whatever.
November 14th, 2008 at 2:51 pm
So Swisher’s best years happened in Oakland near Balco?
And he hit .218 last year in Chicago, and he’s going to NY and be rejuvinated? Did Balco move to NY?
November 14th, 2008 at 2:54 pm
NickP is an idiot.
November 14th, 2008 at 2:54 pm
worst. rationale. ever.
now that, i’ll disagree with. sometimes making fun of intern bill is hilarious. jolly good time.
November 14th, 2008 at 2:54 pm
Thanks Maggs. Your mom.
November 14th, 2008 at 2:55 pm
Making fun of Intern Bill is ALWAYS funny…I am teaching my 9 month old every Intern Bill joke EvAR
/Father of the Millenium
November 14th, 2008 at 3:21 pm
Swisher will undoubtedly rebound this year, because he can’t get any worse. The reason he was so bad wasn’t because of where he hit or where he fielded, it’s because he got into some bad routines at the plate and wouldn’t work with his coaches to fix it; then it all just went downhill. They were in a pennant race and literally couldn’t play him he was so bad. It’s only a bad trade because of what the Sox gave up to get him.
November 14th, 2008 at 3:26 pm
I got it now. Maggs is Intern Bill. Intern Bill is Maggs…
/Ace Ventura’d
November 14th, 2008 at 3:32 pm
He has to be, he’s the only person dumb enough to defend the guy.
November 14th, 2008 at 3:33 pm
To settle this stats no stats debate once and for all…
There are numbers which provide a logical, objective analysis of what happened.
Then there is not falsifiable bullshit. Some of it may be true, but you can’t prove it.
The scientific revolution kind of did away with the bullshit hundreds of years ago in every other aspect of life. Baseball is slowly coming around.
November 14th, 2008 at 3:42 pm
A big contrarian point to you Ty Duffy is that Nick Swisher was deemed the second coming, maybe of Jeremey Giambi, but second coming nonetheless. Turns out that wasn’t exactly true. So the “bullshit” that has no “proof” was on the field, or not on the field, in 2008. Nick Swisher sucks. Stat heads think he should have been good. His ability says otherwise.
November 14th, 2008 at 3:48 pm
Nick Swisher career OPS+ 112
Jeremy Giambi: 111
Wrong again.
November 14th, 2008 at 4:11 pm
Yeah in hindsight they are similar. Based on projections and scouting, may of the “stat heads” projected, and still project (like this post), for him to be a stud. Hence there is something to be said to the old school thought of scouting.
November 14th, 2008 at 4:18 pm
To be fair, you guys do get slightly bent out of shape when he talks shit about MLJ.
I get it, its your baby, but you can’t let haters bring you to their level.
Plus Maggs is the antagonist this site needs. If you subtracted Maggs from the group of regular TBL commenters it would be much less fun.
November 14th, 2008 at 4:30 pm
MLJ is just a bunch of douchebags.
November 14th, 2008 at 4:44 pm
Have a great weekend you fucking dick heads. I hope your kids don’t get AIDS or anything.
November 14th, 2008 at 4:49 pm
Who said that Nick Swisher was the second coming of anything. Beane took him with a mid-1st round pick. He made the major leagues and was a productive player in Oakland before being traded.
The Jeremy Giambi comparisons don’t fly at all. First, Giambi was always a platoon player. He never had 400 at bats in a season, used when he was most favorable. Swisher’s been an every day player since he got to the big leagues. Second, Giambi was a huge steroid guy. Who knows what was going on with his career.
Swisher had a bad year last season. In 2006 and 2007, he had mid .800s OPS. Last year he stunk with a .743 OPS in CF. That’s still roughly on par with Ichiro and Rowand, better than Lastings Milledge and Jacoby Ellsbury. He still hit 24 home runs.
If you give him the benefit of the doubt next season, he should bounce back to somewhere around his previous numbers slightly lower. Let’s say .800 OPS. If he’s playing every day, he probably hits 25-30 HR. They got him for nothing and he’s not very expensive. Nice pick up.
November 14th, 2008 at 4:52 pm
There are cases to be made for traditional scouting. Everyone makes mistakes. Swisher wasn’t one of them.
November 14th, 2008 at 5:13 pm
To put it simply: anyone who thinks there is a scouts v. stats debate is wrong. You need both.
November 14th, 2008 at 5:18 pm
Giambi has a higher career average and OBP than Swisher. Also, Swishers consistent 130+ K’s are attractive. If anything, Giambi might actually be a better player. Swisher could be a steroid guy too. Swisher is not very good.
November 14th, 2008 at 5:18 pm
oh and phatjohnsn, it’s not my baby, I could give a shit about MLJ, I just don’t like it when people say stupid stuff about baseball that isn’t true.
November 14th, 2008 at 5:38 pm
Giambi was a platoon player. Swisher would have better career numbers, but since he’s only 27 and only played 4 major league seasons, having one bad year swings the numbers considerably. Also, Giambi hit 20 HRs in a season once, Swisher’s done it every year he’s been an every day player.
Nobody was complaining about Swisher’s 152 K in 2006 when he had an .865 OPS, 35 HR, and was the best player on an Oakland team that went to the ALCS.
Strikeouts aren’t indicative of performance, just the number of pitches he takes. You can make the argument that it cuts down on his RBIs, but his patience also gets him on base more often for other players to knock in. Kevin Youkilis strikes out about 110 times a year. Is he a bad player too?
You don’t have to like Swisher. He’s not the best player in the league. But if you are going to argue why he isn’t a good player, make a logical argument. You can’t just take one number arbitrarily and call it a day, or say he’s not good without any foundation.
Even if you don’t like him, you can’t reasonably argue he won’t be halfway decent hitter for the Yankees next year. He’s a switch-hitter and can play all three outfield positions and first base. He’s not Teixiera, but he’s going to cost about 1/3 as much as Teixiera the next three years.
November 14th, 2008 at 5:59 pm
The basis of the argument was Jeremey Giambi. I think he is universally looked at as not a very good player. Perhaps he was a platoon player, but still played in about 100 games a season for 4 years. Swisher actually has more at bats. So when we look at numbers that consider averages, like Batting Average, all things are equal. Giambi has a higher batting average, and a a higher OBP (which is super important among stat heads). So Giambi actually has a better eye, and less strike outs. When you look at their career averages, Giambi has a better average, OBP, lower Ks. Swisher has more HRs and RBIs, so I guess we could call them about even. So like I said in the beginning. If Giambi sucks, and Swisher has similar numbers to Giambi, then Swisher sucks too. Also, Swisher has a solid $3.8 million salary. People criticize the Yankees for over spending and getting something they don’t need (like another mediocre outfielder or first baseman). Don’t forget they have Posada and Matsui with no where to go.
November 14th, 2008 at 6:11 pm
tyduffy, if we ever look to expand..you might be a good target, I’d even let you post about soccer.
as for eagles, well if the National Enquirer needs new “writers” i’ll pass your e-mail along to them
November 14th, 2008 at 6:53 pm
Thanks for the compliment
Eagles – Who was saying Jeremy Giambi sucked? He had two really good years (steroid-aided), an awful one in Boston and then fell off the face of the earth.
November 14th, 2008 at 8:58 pm
You can’t necessarily take the stats of a platoon player, extrapolate those stats to come up with a full-time equivalent, and then compare to a player that actually does play full-time. A player is a platoon player because he does considerably better in certain matchups than others. A typical full-time player is also going to have these types of favorable matchups, but his unfavorable matchups are typically “less worse” than those of the the platoon player. So while the estimated stats of the platoon player have the inherent advantage of not including those unfavorable matchups, the actual full-time player does not get that advantage. It would be like picking the 300 best at-bats of the full time player and comparing those to the actual stats of the platoon player.