The Yankees went all in early during free agency, offering CC Sabathia a gobsmacking six-year $140 million contract, potentially the largest ever for a pitcher.  The offer presumably rules out other clubs, unless the Mets, Dodgers or Angels can conjure a reasonably close deal.

Boras-client Derek Lowe, the next step down, won’t come cheaply.  Though, even if Boras gets his price, $15 million per season according to the Boston Globe, Lowe likely comes in a more manageable three-year $45 million or four-year $60 million package.

What’s interesting are the projections for next season.  Here are the Bill James lines.

Sabathia: 240 IP, 3.48 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 205 SO

Lowe: 206 IP, 3.60 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 132 SO

Assuming James’ numbers are reasonably accurate, there isn’t much difference between these two.  Sabathia will throw more innings.  Lowe will have fewer strikeouts as a sinker ball pitcher.  Sabathia has a slightly better projection.  He’s younger (27) than Lowe (35).  But Lowe is not three hundred pounds and didn’t pitch until his arm died the past two seasons.

A.J. Burnett, who may cost $16 to $18 million per season, has a strikingly similar projection to both Lowe and Sabathia.

Burnett: 224IP, 3.62 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 218 SO

Burnett is no sure thing.  He will be 32.  The innings projection of 224 seems a tad optimistic, considering he’s never pitched that many in his career.  In eight seasons in the rotation, Burnett has made 30 starts just twice.

Though the projections for the three pitchers have marginal differences, they are quite similar pitchers in production terms.  Sabathia has longevity, mitigated by long-term conditioning concerns.  Burnett has ability, but has never consistently stayed healthy.  Derek Lowe comes with the lowest cost and the least physical risk without losing much value from the other two.  For a team trying to win next season, Lowe makes the most sense.

The argument however, may be pointless as Hammerin’ Hank may crack open his man-sized piggy bank to buy all three.  As a devout Red Sox fan, nothing excites me more than a huffing and puffing Sabathia, the Derek Lowe face and an injured Burnett rolling into Fenway Park at the cost of about $60 million per season.