Next week, the baseball brass will meet in Las Vegas — the ideal venue for serious business — to have their winter meetings.  Buster Olney and Ken Rosenthal will duel breathlessly for time-stamps.  Bud Selig will deflect all criticism with the buxom bottom line.  At some point between the craps tables and the loose women, the free agent picture will likely be sorted.  Here are some projections.

CC Sabathia (Angels of Anaheim): Behind most trends strides a smooth black man. MLB free agency will be no different.  Sabathia has ignored both the Yankees’ six-year $140 million offer and the Brewers’ “hometown discount” offer of five-years $100 million.  Plausibly, this suggests he wants both fair value and a comfortable locale that likely isn’t New York City.

If the Mets and Yanks are out, the economy moves him to California teams.  The Giants have money, but need a bat and can’t justify another Zito signing.  Los Angeles could use a starter but may prefer Manny Ramirez’ bat (also Sabathia never played for the Red Sox or Yankees so Frank McCourt has never heard of him).  If the Angels can spend $90 million to watch Torii Hunter age, they can offer Sabathia a contract generous enough to save him from the Yankees.

Manny Ramirez (Dodgers): Manny Ramirez has two World Series rings.  Cooperstown is pre-ordering his plaque.  He enlisted Scott Boras for a simple reason, to get him more than the two-years $40 million he had remaining with the Red Sox.  The Red Sox won’t sign him.  The Yankees already have a few creaky corner-outfield/DH types.  The trio of Abreu, Burrell and Dunn may distract mid-market teams.

The Mets should look at Manny and the Angels and Giants will.  However, it will require a certain fanaticism and nuttiness to approach his target four-year $100 million deal.  Cue the little fella from Southie that whispers into Frank McCourt’s ear.  Expect Boras to finagle a three-year deal of about $75m with a fourth-year option, made mandatory with performance incentives.

Mark Teixeira (Yankees): Teixeira suckles on the Boras kool-aid.  He’ll travel where the money is.  With talk of a ten-year $200 million contract afoot, the Angels, Yankees and Red Sox should be the favorites.  New York has more money and, without Kevin Youkilis, more need at the position.  The Red Sox also have stud first base prospect Lars Anderson a couple years away, with his cost-friendly rights for six years.  Signing Teixeira would surrender positional and financial flexibility.  Teixeira doesn’t seem like a Red Sox signing, but a characteristic Yankee one.  The Red Sox rumors are there, but, perhaps, just to stir up the cost.

Subsequent Fallout

The Yankees will sign starting pitchers, paying Boras and Darek Braunecker their lump of flesh for Burnett and Lowe.

Omar Minaya, in his head, will outfox everyone with a relatively discounted deal to bring Francisco Rodriguez to the Mets.  Then look on incredulously when his velocity declines and his arm falls off in two years.

Adam Dunn will bring his bad self and his 40 HR, 100 RBI, .900 OPS consistency to the Washington Nationals, while Pat Burrell signs to DH/platoon with the Angels.

Judging by teams’ fear of arbitration, many second and third tier players will be low-balled big-time.