Patriots Lack of a Running Game … Worried?
NFL December 10th. 2007, 2:51pm
Three games left to achieve regular season perfection. Sunday, a strong second half propelled the Patriots to a relatively-easy 34-13 triumph over the Steelers. No need to bring up the guarantee business; if you are going to reference it, kindly find the video of Brady talking junk to that kid and then getting bumped in the end zone by some burly Pittsburgh lineman. This week it’s a rematch with the Jets, the team that turned in Belichick for cheating earlier this season. The line is set at 24, but does anyone else get a sense that even if it’s 40-0 in the fourth, Tom Brady might still be in the game? If ever there was a game for Yoda to twist the knife, this was it.
Instead of waving the towel, we’ll ask a question: Are you worried about how the Patriots sorely lack a running game? Here are the stats – New England carried 29 times for 75 yards against Dallas, 28 times for 105 yards against Indy, and nine times for 22 yards against Pittsburgh. We’re going to say it again – January brings inclement weather, like rain and snow and sleet, and as incredible as Brady’s passing attack is, we wonder if the running game will be ready for a heavy load in January. Can Maroney – whom we loved before they ignored him this year – get the job done? Just to play devil’s advocate, the Jags have a better ground-game, so do the Steelers, and Joseph Addai killed the Pats for a half before Tony Dungy forgot to get him the ball. If there are two groups – don’t watch, nobody can stop New England and dubious of the whole unbeaten thing – then please lump us in the latter.
Guarantee Steelers Fans Won’t Like This (Land of Patriots)
Smith falls flat on face (Boston Herald)
41 Responses to “Patriots Lack of a Running Game … Worried?”
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December 10th, 2007 at 2:56 PM
The spread is only 24? Get in on that NOW.
As for the Pats lack of a running game, so what? They don’t need to run the ball. They don’t sit on leads, they attack, so why change now?
December 10th, 2007 at 2:56 PM
What about Moss. He has been known to mail it in when getting hit while it is really cold. Maybe he doesn’t do that this year, but I wouldn’t be shocked.
That said. 16-0. Indy is the only team that can hang anymore.
December 10th, 2007 at 2:57 PM
It’s a good week to have Brady in your fantasy league playoffs. Hey, I have Brady. Nice.
December 10th, 2007 at 2:57 PM
I will not be the least bit surprised to see Brady break the record for touchdown passes in one game (I think the record is 7?). And there is no way in hell Brady sits in this game.
Cue the “Mighty Ducks” line: “it’s not worth winning if you can’t win big”
December 10th, 2007 at 3:01 PM
moss will break jerry rice’s touchdown record for most in a year
great year for moss, does he deserve the MVP award though
i think so, looked at how he helped the PATS so much to have a weapon of his caliber
that is why i picked him as my #2 wideout behind ocho stinko on my fantasy squad
December 10th, 2007 at 3:05 PM
So glad I have Maroney on my fantasty team…..but I also have Brady…
December 10th, 2007 at 3:07 PM
I think both Moss and Brady break the records this year. He will probably break out the fro this weekend. He likes to go big when he sports the fro.
Am I crazy though to think that if someone hits him in the mouth in the really cold weather, the alligator arms might come out? I think Brady and Belicheck will handle that better than anyone else did though.
December 10th, 2007 at 3:08 PM
New England will get beat. It won’t be in the regular season but in the playoffs. Can’t wait for a drunk Nick Buoniconti to run his mouth.
December 10th, 2007 at 3:12 PM
lets just hope mercury morris isnt with Nick the drunk Buoniconti
December 10th, 2007 at 3:14 PM
@grungedave:
Coach Reilly Belichick: Why’d you turn against me, Gordon Eric? For six years, I taughtcha how to skate, I taughtcha how to score, I taughtcha how to go for the “W”. You could have been one of the greats! An’ now look at yourself. You’re not even a has-been. You’re a never-was.
December 10th, 2007 at 3:14 PM
I liked this letter Simmons posted in his last picks column:
Adam from Indy writes, “Congrats! You and the rest of New England are rooting for the ‘04 and ‘05 Colts: record-breaking offense, iffy defense and no running game. The Colts, on the other hand, have had some tough losses, a great running game, a physical defense and they’re completely out of the spotlight. Sound familiar?”
December 10th, 2007 at 3:16 PM
*cross out “Reilly” and “Gordon”
December 10th, 2007 at 3:23 PM
I was also going to reference the mention of the previous Colts teams in the Simmons column. Pretty much spot on. We’ll see if the end result is the same.
December 10th, 2007 at 3:27 PM
I can’t see the Patriots going to and winning the Super Bowl by passing 50 times in the playoffs. Sure, Maroney is good, but you can’t just start up a running back after limited carries in September-December. As a Steelers fan, I don’t really care if the Patriots go undefeated. It will just make their postseason loss that much more bitter.
December 10th, 2007 at 3:42 PM
It’s not that the Pats can’t run the ball, because they can run the ball effectively when they want to, it’s that they don’t need to.
Pittsburgh has a nice defense. A bit overrated coming into the Pats game, but still nice. And Brady and the Pats made it look like my Bengals D. When they spread the field 5 wide, they aren’t going to be stopped.
December 10th, 2007 at 3:51 PM
No one’s beating them. Why run the ball when you can throw slants for 6-7 yards every play? As far as weather goes, seems to me Brady has a pretty good track record in playoff games in poor weather. I’d be alot more concerned about the opposing QB in a bad weather environment than Brady. Manning, though, I seem to remember struggling in the cold. A warm weather, unproven playoff team like Jax going into NE and winning? I don’t think so.
The Colts chances at beating the Pats were lost when Freeny was. The Colts were able to get solid pressure with only their front four, now they’ll be forced to blitz leaving their weak corners man-on-man. The Pats have supierior talent to every other team. And if that wasn’t enough, they’ve got the hoody game planning. Tomlin may end up being a great coach, but now he’s a rook and it showed Sunday. Outscored 17-0 in the 2nd half. Jack Del Rio? Please. It was 28-3 last playoff game they played. Jax aint bringing down the dynasty.
December 10th, 2007 at 4:25 PM
Quin – Any chance you have stats to back up ‘pretty good track record in playoff games in poor weather?’
Stats may exist, but i’d be curious to see them.
December 10th, 2007 at 4:33 PM
TBL, you really think the Jags have a better shot at winning it all than the Pats? You really think the Pats have a suspect D? They are 4th in total yards and points against. Yeah they had a few shakey games, but all teams do. If the weather is as bad as suspected, then all teams will struggle offensively. I still like the Pats chances over most teams. How effective will the Colts be, they rely a lot on the pass too.
December 10th, 2007 at 4:37 PM
Patriots have a running game that they choose not to use. Wait until the playoffs.
By the way, they also have hundreds of pages of CliffNotes on other team’s plays.
December 10th, 2007 at 4:42 PM
Absolutely no doubt that the Patriots are the faves. Maybe I’m just looking for holes. It’s difficult, for sure. Guess I just don’t think it’s as much of a lock as everyone else.
It’s easy to say, ‘they’ll just run the ball’ when the weather goes bad, but i think a team that has run the ball successfully all season will run it better than a team that hasn’t.
And even then … the Patriots still have the advantage being at home.
December 10th, 2007 at 4:53 PM
The Colts had no running game in 04 and 05 when they had Edgerrin James? That doesn’t sound right to me.
I agree that the Pats are vulnerable, they will definitely go 16-0 at least.
December 10th, 2007 at 4:57 PM
First of all, what exactly is considered “bad” weather? Cold? Rainy? Full blown snow storm (like the Snow game vs. Oakland?)
Second, why is everyone assuming the worst possible weather is guaranteed to happen? What if we have a clear, relatively warm January Sunday in New England, say 50 degrees. What then?
I’m sick of this “Pats can’t run the ball.” When you can throw for 7-12 yards every single down, why the hell would you run the ball?
“Pats can’t win in the playoffs throwing 50 times” WHY NOT? I predict a Pats blowout playoff win in Foxboro with Brady throwing for 400 yds. and 5 TDs, running game be damned.
December 10th, 2007 at 5:04 PM
I agree it is def possible for them to lose, but just like any game this season, the other team needs to bring their A game, and the Pats need to play poorly. I have heard rumblings that Belichek is not happy with Maroney.
December 10th, 2007 at 5:39 PM
I could see the Pats losing if the Refs are completely blind and stay out of the game.
December 10th, 2007 at 6:05 PM
They could run if they wanted to, but why run when you can throw?
The Pats used to run a great singleback, double tight formation when they were stuck with Caldwell and Gabriel/Gaffney. They scored points from that formation, won games, and made the playoffs. They could do the same again if they wanted to.
December 10th, 2007 at 6:53 PM
TBL- While I know it’s not exactly “bad weather,” Brady enters the 2007 season with a career record of 21-2 as a starter (.913) in games played in temperatures below 40 degrees.
He’s also 11-2 in the playoffs, with his only loses coming on the road, in Denver in clear conditions and in doors in Indy. In his first ever playoff game, the snow game against Oakland, he was an efficient 32-52 for 312 yards. In the other snow playoff game I can remember off the top of my head, against Indy in 2004, he was 18-27 for 144 and 1 TD, no picks. That’s the same game Manning threw 5. Let’s also not forget he played college ball in Michigan, a cold weather city.
I’m just saying that don’t count on Brady slowing down because of the weather. If anything, perhaps the cold will effect the receivers. In the Ravens game, when Brady would really gun it, the Pats receivers dropped a lot of balls. Whether that was an aberration or not, we will see.
The one stat I would take above all else though is the fact that he has never lost a home playoff game. And with the weapons surrounding him now, I highly doubt that this is the year that streak ends.
December 10th, 2007 at 7:37 PM
I see the Patriots finishing this thing off 19-0 (side bar…the Fish finish 0-16 and Buoniconti is on double suicide watch).
The only way they lose would be, in part, because of the running game. If there were a game where Brady was just not on his game. Not hitting his targets…the offense was just off. In this same game, the Pats defense is getting beaten up by somebody like Manning’s air game or Jacksonville’s running game. In this type of game, imagine the Patriots getting the ball ahead by 3 or 4 points with 4 minutes to go in the 4th quarter and they cannot run the ball to close out the game. That is THE far-fetched scenario where they lose.
Won’t happen.
December 10th, 2007 at 8:00 PM
You stole my thunder, Quin. Â Brady’s done it before in bad weather, and the quick hits to the wideouts has replaced the running game. Â It will be tougher going in the snow, but they did it in 2001 when Antowain Smith was only getting 3 yards a carry, so they can certainly do it now with Maroney.
Indy still scares the hell out of me – they’ve scored over 100 points over the last three games & their run game is excellent with Addai. Â Chelsea picked out the other opponent that worries me (Jacksonville), simply because of their physical play.
If the Patriots get the Jags in the first game, they’ll win, but Jacksonville will take their pound of flesh. Â If they get the Colts after that, I’ll be shoving large safety pins into my Manning voodoo doll…
December 10th, 2007 at 8:04 PM
TBL- New England is 14th in the league in rushing, ahead of several other playoff teams like Seattle and Green Bay as well as a host of potential playoff teams. New England isn’t a bad rushing team, they’re just slightly above average (4.0 yards per carry).
those are the stats.
December 10th, 2007 at 8:07 PM
We’ve seen other supposedly “unbeatable” NFL teams fall short of a championship (‘98 Vikings, ‘01 Rams). The only thing that might be different about the Patriots is that, in addition to being “unbeatable,” they might actually be unbeaten.
December 10th, 2007 at 9:31 PM
Yes, they are 14th. But I posted what they did against the good teams. I’m not really interested in what they ran up against the Jets, Dolphins, etc.
December 10th, 2007 at 9:34 PM
Quin – Good stats. 15-2 is impressive. No home losses in the postseason also is impressive.
December 10th, 2007 at 11:26 PM
Yes, but the title of the post is “Patriots Lack of a Running Game…” and there’s a big difference between a lack of a running game and an average running game.
December 11th, 2007 at 2:56 AM
I’ll make this simple.
Only Dallas, G.B., N.E. and Indy have a chance at winning the SB.
Team rushing yards per game.
Cowboys 118 ypg
Colts 114 ypg
Pats 113 ypg
G.B. 93 ypg
Not much of a difference.
Is any research compiled before a post is thrown together?
December 11th, 2007 at 3:34 AM
I went back and looked at the play-by-play from the Colts game. To say that Dungy forgot about Addai in the second half is simply a lie.
December 11th, 2007 at 6:19 AM
Jack – Not sure if you actually read the post or not, but against the three best teams the Pats played (Indy, Dallas, Pitt), the NE rushed a grand total of 66 times for 202 yards.
Aspack – Addai had 187 yards in the first half. He had 39 total in the second half. Forgot? Misused? Underused? Which word would you prefer?
December 11th, 2007 at 11:55 AM
TBL,
In the second half of Pats/Colts, the Colts ran 29 non-punt plays. Addai was featured in 11 of those plays. Mind you, that includes all 4 plays in the second drive of the half, in which Addai failed to secure the first down, and four plays in Indy’s only TD drive in the second half.
In the first half,Indy had 35 non-kicking plays, in which Addai was featured in 19 of those plays. As a proportion, Indy used Addai in 55% of the plays (which you can argue counts as overuse) in H1 and in 38% of the plays in H2. Meanwhile, you’re being a bit disingenuous by putting up the 187/39 dichotomy. In the first half, Addai averaged 9.8 yds/play and 6.3 yds/play even if you exclude the 73 yard touchdown screen pass, while in the second half, he averaged 3.5 yds/play. I don’t think he was forgotten or misused – he just didn’t show up in the second half or maybe he was tired from being featured in 19 plays in the first half or maybe the Patriots rose to the occasion and stopped him in the second half. Whatever it is. You should also consider the fact that in Indy’s last drive of the game, Addai was not really an option given the need to actually drive down the field from their own 24.
December 11th, 2007 at 2:02 PM
TBL you said they lack a running game, which is incorrect.
I read the post and started laughing when I read the following, considering Indy is the Pats lone competition in the AFC …
Uh, how is this bad.
December 11th, 2007 at 2:13 PM
It’s not bad at all. It came in a dome. Dude, you don’t have to agree with me … that’s fine. Just saying that come January, if Brady isn’t able to pass 40 times due to bad weather (which happens in January) will the running game be able to carry this team?
Just a question for discussion, no right or wrong answer …
December 11th, 2007 at 3:12 PM
Then I should expect the “Colts Lack of a Running Game … Worried?” post any minute now, considering Indy plays in a dome and averages just one rushing yard more per game than the Pats.
Also, your question (worried?) is in response to a statement (Patriots Lack of a Running Game). Your statement is statistically wrong.
Stop being blinded by the lack of star running back, your missing a more than fine running game (113 rushing yards per game).
Also your two game sample size of below-average performances (Cowboys, Steelers) is silly.
December 11th, 2007 at 3:19 PM
Nope, won’t be a Colts one. This season’s all about the Patriots. Lack of a star? I love Maroney. Look him up on this site … i said he had the best stiff-arm in football earlier this year. Then he got hurt, and they stopped using him.