Were you so enraptured with North Carolina and UCLA losing Saturday that you paid no attention to the political races that are heating up? Couple mild surprises over the weekend. Just 15 days until Super Tuesday. Political wonk Jon Schnaars has the goods for you.

Saturday was a bigger day for Republicans than it was for Democrats, but for some reason both parties seemed to revel in the process far less in this third round of primary voting. Perhaps the nation was a little less interested in following politics than in rejoicing in some good old fashioned college hoops mayhem. Or perhaps this is merely the calm before the larger storms that will be the Dems in SC and the GOP in Florida. Either way, let’s look at what we learned:

Republicans

The Results
Technically there were two Republican primaries on Saturday: the Nevada caucuses and the South Carolina contest. In reality though, there was only one race that really mattered. Mitt Romney, as has been mentioned a few times by the talking heads, is a Mormon, and as such he had Nevada, where 1 in 5 voters was Mormon, on lock. He was essentially the only candidate that campaigned in the state, thus he dominated thoroughly. South Carolina was a much different story. John McCain and Mike Huckabee went into Saturday in a virtual dead heat. It was McCain, though who emerged the victor in the state that had crushed his presidential hopes eight years ago. He bested the former Southern governor by three points, with Fred Thompson and Romney rounding out the top four.

The Predictions
Stepping back, the only thing that anyone seems willing to say about the GOP race is that no one knows anything. Romney can lay claim to three nice victories, while McCain now has two under his belt. But as we all know from that marvelous disaster known as college football, some victories are better than others, and McCain who has won in the Northeast and now the heart of the South, and can rightly claim to be the front-runner. Losing South Carolina effectively ends Huckabee’s chances for the White House. He will continue to exert a strong force on the race, and could very well shake up the results in several coming states, including Florida. But if Huckabee can’t win in South Carolina, a state in his own backyard, then he’s not likely to win anything else. That means we’re down to three, or maybe more appropriately, two plus one. Rudy Giuliani again failed to beat even Ron Paul in South Carolina, and now it’s officially time for the rubber to meet the road for his campaign. Florida looms on the GOP’s horizon like a sublime beast, set to either establish a candidate or destroy him. Romney and McCain have the inside track, but as many have noted, the GOP is a deeply fractured party right now that is struggling to find its identity in a soon to be post-Bush world. Both of these candidates have flaws that concern the establishment. The true question going forward must be: what will it take to rally the GOP behind any one candidate in a way that puts a November victory in sight?

Democrats

The Results
Saturday capped off an exasperating and exhausting week of campaigning on the Democratic side of the race. A contest that had largely been civil and productive appeared to devolve into infighting and nastiness. Much of that came not necessarily from the candidates themselves, but instead from various places including within the campaigns themselves. With race suddenly becoming a central theme in the media coverage, and an economic situation that will clearly require some deft maneuvering, both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama were operating on all cylinders. In the end, Clinton emerged victorious in the contentious Nevada contest, but it was hardly a resounding proclamation, and thus things remain relatively uncertain.

The Predictions
As in the GOP race, the Democratic contest remains largely in flux. With her victory in Nevada, Clinton has more firmly cemented herself into the lead position. But Obama remains a formidable challenger, and could still easily see things swing back into his favor. In reality, both candidates leave Nevada with some scrapes and bumps, and things will not get easier anytime soon. Democrats in South Carolina will head to the polls next Saturday in a race that will tell us a great deal not only about the shape of this race, but also about the state of the party in the South. John Edwards will be the dark horse this week. Having been relegated to also-ran status after New Hampshire, Edwards will be very competitive in South Carolina, and while an outright win is unlikely, he will play an enormous roll in shaping the race for the two front-runners. It’s also unlikely that the race will leave South Carolina with any greater clarity. With Super Tuesday, and roughly 40% of the nations delegates, just around the corner, even another Clinton win—which would be three in a row for those keeping count—would not lower the boom on Obama. An Obama win on the other hand, would send a strong message that its safe for the party to buy into his message of hope, which some seem to have balked at in the last week. As you will no doubt hear more about in the coming week, the breakdowns will be very important in South Carolina, with women voters having flocked to Clinton in the last two contests. The black voters, who make up a very large part of the Democratic base in South Carolina, will have a chance to have their voice heard loud and clear next weekend. And it will be that voice, perhaps most of all, that determines who moves on to February 5th with the arms held high.