South Carolina*, Throw Your Hands Up, Take Your Shirt Off and Wave it ‘Round Your Head Like a Helicopter
Politics January 28th. 2008, 9:45am
* We fully realize the lyrics go ‘North Carolina,’ but we had nothing for a headline, and this song cracks us up. Continuing our political updates, Obama body-slammed Clinton in South Carolina Saturday night, and we’re only 36 hours away from learning the fate of Rudy Giuliani’s Presidential run. As we’ve been doing all month, political wonk Jon Schnaars recaps what took place. Eight days away from Super Tuesday, in case you were wondering.
Momentum – Barack Obama had it coming out of Iowa, then slammed into a wall in New Hampshire. Hillary Clinton captured it in New Hampshire and carried it through Nevada. This put Obama on the ropes. Then came South Carolina, and another momentum swing.
The Results
For Barack Obama, South Carolina was nothing short of a steamrolling. The Senator from Illinois captured 55 percent of all primary voters. He more than doubled the number of votes received by Clinton, who placed second with 27 percent of the vote. John Edwards finished a distant third at 18 percent. The win gives Obama two of the first four primary victories, pulling him even with Clinton. Obama’s wins have come in larger states however, with South Carolina accounting for 54 delegates and Iowa 57 (to Clinton’s 33 in Nevada and 30 in New Hampshire). The evening’s second biggest storyline was voter turnout – 100,000 more Democrats voted at their primary than Republicans voted at their GOP contest a week earlier.
The Predictions
There’s really only one thing that can be said for certain: on February 6th, the day after Super Tuesday, it’s very unlikely that we will be any closer to knowing who the Democratic presidential nominee will be. And surely, momentum won’t be carrying Obama to victory from here. Looking at the voter breakdown from Saturday, it’s not hard to see that black voters played a strong role in securing this victory for Obama, who they favored by a margin of 78 to 19 percent. Just as women voters were seen to be key to Clinton’s success in earlier contests, black voters made their voices heard here in a powerful way. Edwards actually captured the largest percentage of white voters, and women voters supported Obama in numbers that mirrored the race’s final results. South Carolina has not been carried by a Democratic presidential nominee in the general election since Jimmy Carter in 1976, and Obama’s overwhelming victory opens up the now legitimate question of whether he can forge a new Southern alliance for the Democratic party.
In many ways, South Carolina marks the end to a prelude. The Clinton campaign was criticized heavily in media circles for the actions of former President Bill Clinton. Many have wondered openly about Bill’s role in the campaign, as well as what that role might be if Hillary Clinton were to win in November. Obama meanwhile has been cast as having passed a major test for his campaign. With the full force of the Clinton campaign on him, he captured a massive victory.
Super Tuesday is another beast though, and the days two largest prizes line up nicely for Clinton. In Nevada, Clinton captured a large majority of the Hispanic vote, and California is another state where Hispanic voters play a large part (ditto for NY), both states where Clinton should be set up to win. If Clinton takes both CA and NY, Obama must hope to keep things close in those two states so that he can claim a victory on the day with wins in smaller contests. The final piece of this complicated puzzle is John Edwards, who is done after a 3rd place finish in a state that he won in 2004. Edwards can now truly play the role of spoiler, as his campaign can continue to accrue delegates, even if only in 10 and 12 percent chunks, which can then be signed over to another candidate when Edwards eventually drops out of the race. One would have to think that Obama would be the benefactor in that situation, which throws another monkey wrench into the complex nominating machinery.
43 Responses to “South Carolina*, Throw Your Hands Up, Take Your Shirt Off and Wave it ‘Round Your Head Like a Helicopter”
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January 28th, 2008 at 9:51 AM
For years to come Rudy’s campaign strategy will be up there with Richard Nixon sweating on TV and Michael Dukakis riding in that tank as some of the all-time great blunders in political history
Not that Rudy should really care…he can keep on collecting six-figure speaking fees as he continues to profit from 9/11
January 28th, 2008 at 9:52 AM
Hillary basically ceded South Carolina to Obama, she left early to go to some of the Super Tuesday states and pick up Ed Rendell’s endorsement(PA Gov.) She left Bill in SC to do her bidding but that didn’t seem to go over well as the majority of people who decided who to vote for in the last 3 days went for Obama. This thing is about to get pretty interesting with Ted Kennedy endorsing Obama, February 5th here we come.
Romney and McCain will go 1 and 2 in Florida with nary a difference in % points.
January 28th, 2008 at 9:52 AM
To add little to the discussion, I think the last paragraph is accurate and a decent prediction of things to come. Clinton takes the two biggies, Obama keeps it close there and also takes most of the south. When Edwards dies off, those delegates go to Obama. I predict Obama takes the nomination, but in a close battle all the way to the end.
January 28th, 2008 at 9:56 AM
I have deep-seeded political views that I wish to share with my fellow commenters.
January 28th, 2008 at 10:01 AM
Great analysis Jon. I am really curious to see what happens in Florida. I am a Democrat, but I listen to all the Conservative radio hosts (know your enemy) and they all hate Mccain. I am really anxious to see if he can pull it off and get the Republican nod. IMHO if he does win, and has to go up against Clinton, he wins. If he goes up against Obama I think Obama wins. I am a political junkie and I really think that this race is getting really exciting.
January 28th, 2008 at 10:05 AM
Nope. Still not a candidate out there that I give a shit about and would actively consider voting for. At least, definitely among the 4 or 5 contenders in both parties.
January 28th, 2008 at 10:10 AM
pki,
I agree, the race is getting exciting.
I enjoyed the chance to vote for McCain in the MI primary, since the Dems I wanted were not on the ballot. I then watched McCain give a campaign speech in Florida. I actually liked some of what he had to say, but he appears clueless on the economy. I think Romney’s grasp of business and the economic situation will wear McCain down, as long as Romney can get past his used car salesman creepiness factor.
I also think McCain or Romney are sitting ducks for Obama. Hillary, not as much.
January 28th, 2008 at 10:14 AM
Nice Mystikal reset, TBL!
January 28th, 2008 at 10:16 AM
@pkiguy22 – As a conservative, I have no enthusiasm whatsoever for John McCain and would have to strongly consider either not voting or actually casting a ballot for Obama.
And, on that note, I will now go set myself on fire.
January 28th, 2008 at 10:17 AM
Shit, I meant Petey Pablo.
January 28th, 2008 at 10:21 AM
the412- I have a few conservative friends who don’t really like Mccain either, but have also said that if Clinton gets the Dem nod, they would vote for anyone the Rebs put up just to ensure that she doesn’t get elected.
January 28th, 2008 at 10:21 AM
Ugh…I’m going to really try to stay out of the political threads this week. There are some really smart/insightful/clever folks here, but last week a couple trolls dominated the conversation and, consequently, made it that completely uninteresting.
I’ll check in and see how it goes this week, and may hop in with some pithy commentary from time to time.
For the moment, I’m going to take another look at Eva Mendes…and then get back to…you know, actual work.
January 28th, 2008 at 10:27 AM
Petey Pablo fully endorses John Edwards.
January 28th, 2008 at 10:45 AM
Aint no way McCain gets the nom, especially with a bunch of “mexico first” advisers. Romney is gonna hit the economy hard and win this nomination. Romney has a solid shot with Clinton (who I think will get it for the Dems) but it s gonna be harder with Obama. He needs to get after Obama with his political stances that are a lil extreme IMO.
January 28th, 2008 at 10:52 AM
@JVelez… Whoa, whoa, whoa! Actual stances on the issues have some bearing? That’s crazy talk!
January 28th, 2008 at 10:54 AM
@ any Dem out there – Please explain to my why you would not be supporting Obama? Just curious about this…
January 28th, 2008 at 11:05 AM
Edwards is FROM South Carolina. If you can’t even come close to winning your home state, how do you expect to win elsewhere?
January 28th, 2008 at 11:09 AM
Romney is going to get toasted when things start to turn nasty (can’t be long, right?) because of his work in the private sector. Note he never gets specific about what he did in the private world, but word is he streamlined businesses by cutting jobs. Not saying he’s evil because of it, but it’s hard to explain that in an election. Plus, you’ve got to admit the guy changes positions a lot.
January 28th, 2008 at 11:10 AM
412,
As a Dem, I am fully behind Obama. Hillary’s never been my favorite, and although I loved Bill as a President (please save snarky commentary for later, I KNOW he’s a lout), I’m sick and tired of Bill roaming around and ripping other Dems. He’s turning into a sad hack, and I think he’s realizing if Hillary loses, he’ll be an outsider nobody, as Obama will assign him the window seat and rarely take his calls, if at all.
January 28th, 2008 at 11:11 AM
Anybody talking about the whisper to Romney caught live at the last debate? Sorry if the link doesn’t work, I’ve never linked before. It’s easy to find on youtube (search:”Romney whisper”)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_x_KIpTVmC8
January 28th, 2008 at 11:14 AM
Please consider Ron Paul.
January 28th, 2008 at 11:14 AM
@412- I have been an Obama supporter since the Democratic convention in 04. That speech he gave was awesome and it really gave me hope for this party.
As a Dem, I have no clue as to why another Dem would vote for her instead of Obama. This party needs some fresh ideas and a new attitude. She would only regurgitate the same rhetoric that has really been the decline of this party as of late. I think she would really polarize the party and make it more of a us against them mentality that really has gotten old over the past few years. I think the public is starting to really feel like this and she doesn’t realize this yet. Her actions and words have really made me wonder what her real motivation is and frankly it doesn’t get me excited about the idea of her as president.
January 28th, 2008 at 11:15 AM
pantsman – Sure, I promise that I’ll vote for Ron Paul before John McCain…if that’s my choice. Good God…
January 28th, 2008 at 11:17 AM
GYD & pki… thanks for the feedback.
January 28th, 2008 at 11:18 AM
Atlas, Edwards is from North Carolina. He doesn’t have a shot at winning any state because he gets next to zero media coverage.
As a Democrat, I would have voted for Edwards if he had more of a chance at actually winning the Democratic nom. Now, I’m voting for Obama because there is NO WAY Hillary could win in the general election, regardless of the candidate the Republicans choose.
January 28th, 2008 at 11:21 AM
I thought I was the only one who remembered that song. Thought I was the only one who still remembers that Petey Pablo had a hit song.
January 28th, 2008 at 11:25 AM
That’s the problem, sportsgal. The media decided well over a year ago, well before the first primaries, that this would election would be Clinton or Obama versus McCain or Giuliani. I mean, shit, they’ve drilled that they were the front-runners so much and so often that the country actually believed them. And then Edwards loses by less than 10 percent in one caucus, and they tell me his race is over. Scumbags.
January 28th, 2008 at 11:27 AM
Edwards is the definition of a phony politician. He is a loser. When he quits, believe it or not it will help Shillary. Obama needs to play diry with the Clintons or its Hillary that gets the ticket. The problem with Obama is that even though is he is charasmatic, he has no basic stances. He has never made a key vote in the senate, which as a senator is problematic. I would still like to meet him, but a dem pres+dem congress= problems.
January 28th, 2008 at 11:34 AM
412, I haven’t decided between Obama or Hillary yet and I could even potentially see myself voting for McCain if he was the Republican nominee. I’m not quite buying Obama as the next JFK or RFK as some in the media have started to do the past day or so. Yes he’s getting the endorsements of both Ted Kennedy and Caroline Kennedy, but studies have shown that political endorsements do little in terms of convincing voters to vote for one candidate above another. Endorsements are played up as far more important by the media than they really are. Obama is a great speaker and has tremendous charisma, but I’ve yet to hear something truly groundbreaking in his proposals. I’ve yet to hear anything that makes me think that we could potentially be nominating another JFK or FDR. That’s why I’m not behind Obama yet. Some might say that it’s ludicrous of me to expect something so tremendous out of a presidential candidate, but I think that’s part of the problem that we’ve had in the past 20 years.
Excellent recap and analysis Schnaars. It’s also worth nothing that the Democratic turnout in South Carolina was around 50% black voters and that the only state on Super Tuesday that will have anything close to that number is Georgia where 47% of registered Democrats are black. For Obama to win this nomination he has to somehow garner more appeal amongst middle class white voters. That could be where Edwards figures into the race in the next month or so as you pointed out.
January 28th, 2008 at 11:39 AM
I will vote because I feel like I should. I would only vote for Guiliani and Huckabee if Hilary was the competeition as I agree with them on virtually nothing.
Mitt Romney or McCain would be ok, but honestly as earlier stated by another commenter the candidates are very underwhelming.
I will be shocked if a Republican wins though, even if Hillary gets the nod for the democrats. Republicans have had the White House for 8 years now, and I think the people in the middle will want new blood, however as I have said many times Hillary would not be new blood, please can we move past the Bush and Clinton dynasty’s.
January 28th, 2008 at 11:40 AM
@the412:
Obama and Hillary’s actual plans for the country seem to be very similar, at least from what I’ve seen. I admittedly haven’t looked into specifics in great detail though so there could be major differences I am not seeing yet. I know with regards to health care both plans are similar.
So really you’re electing personality, and frankly Obama has the personality to rally both Republicans and Democrats a lot better than Hillary. No matter what she does, Republican’s will hate her, and I think they/collective you are unsure what to make of Obama.
Personally, I’m tired in the “We’re right, they’re wrong” politics. I know it’s always been that way, but I’d like to see both parties realize that issues aren’t Right and Left, and that problems are more than 2 dimensional. I don’t see either party being able to look at problems that way with Hillary in the White House, there’s too much history and partisanship there. I realize there are political hacks out there that will always drive that wedge into issues, because it gets them on TV and makes them money, but I think Obama and Edwards at least have a chance of getting through some of that, on the Dems side at least.
On the Republican side I think Romney and McCain have the best chance of that, even though Republican’s, in general, seem to dislike McCain.
January 28th, 2008 at 11:44 AM
Sportsgal, there was actually a poll put out recently–possibly by Washington Post, but I’ve forgotten–which looked at how each of the Democratic front runners compared with the each of the Republican frontrunners and both Clinton and Obama came out ahead of Guiliani, Huckabee, Romney, and McCain with McCain coming closest to beating either one of them. Now polls asking this question at this point in the process are not fool proof or necessarily prophetic (for one, the article about the poll didn’t specify whether the pollsters surveyed ‘Likely Voters’ or ‘Registered Voters’ which makes a difference since only about 50-55% of registered voters actually do vote in a Presidential election), but it does show that each has mainstream appeal. Presidential elections are not won by the party faithful, rather elections are won by independents who are swayed by one candidate or the other.
January 28th, 2008 at 11:46 AM
Well lets think about it. If you want health care mandated to you by the same group of people who couldnt handle the mail, katrina and our educational system, any dem would do. If the repubs can paint Hil or Obamas plans as a socliast agenda, GOP could pull of the upset.
January 28th, 2008 at 11:57 AM
I really think Romney’s Mormonism is going to hurt him in all the southern primaries, which just about kills his nomination. McCain will almost certainly be the nom.
Here’s something to consider with the Dems though. My friend, a staunch Democrat, said that he would never vote for Hilary for the simple reason that he refuses to look in the history book 20 years from now and see Bush/Clinton/Bush/Clinton. He said, that’s not a democracy, that’s two powerful families trading power. You really have to wonder how many other people will have similar feelings.
January 28th, 2008 at 11:59 AM
Your right about Bush/Clinton/Bush.
I disagree with the mormonism issue. I think it was raised earlier and Huckabee has not succeded much from it. Issue that needs to be raised was that the earlier primaries involved independants and even democrats. That is what hurt Romney and Thompson. If FL goes to Romney, “game over man, game over”
January 28th, 2008 at 12:33 PM
Predictions for 08 Dems nominate Obama GOP nominates Romney. Romney wins. Dems nominate Clinton GOP nominates Romney. Clinton wins. Dems nominate Obama GOP nominates McCain. Obama wins. Dems nominate Clinton GOP nominates McCain. McCain wins.
January 28th, 2008 at 12:57 PM
ms61, I’d love to believe the polls, but I honestly don’t know how accurate they are, especially for politics.
No candidate who wants a legitimate shot at winning the presidency can offer something ground breaking or new if they expect to win. This nation is too conservative to support a candidate who wants to do something totally different than what’s been done the past 40+ years. I believe Obama is a better choice for the Democratic nomination than Hillary because he hasn’t been in Washington long enough to be swayed by lobbyists. Obama and Edwards have both pushed for lobbyist reform, and have at least attempted to pass some sort of ethical legislation on lobbyists involvement with politicians.
January 28th, 2008 at 1:14 PM
Sportsgal,
Edwards was born and raised in South Carolina. He went on to become a senator in North Carolina (which he also lost in the 2004 primaries).
January 28th, 2008 at 1:51 PM
Where is Ross Perot when you need him?(Ha) It sucks being a GDI..
January 28th, 2008 at 2:48 PM
I believe “Vibrate” kicks this other song’s ass.
January 28th, 2008 at 2:55 PM
Also, I think Hillary made a really big mistake in slipstreaming out of South Carolina and into Super Tuesday; all she needs is for a Southern coalition to form around Obama and she’s done, because that instantly makes him more electable in the general election than she is.
The only Southern state she stands a chance of carrying is Florida, and only because she’s an established name down here and can draw on snowbird support, too. But if Obama can win Edwards’ constituency over, he’s got a larger share than anyone in the South since Clinton, and maybe more because he’s turning out the black vote in huge numbers.
On the Republican side, I can’t see anyone beating McCain. There’s too much aligning in Florida for him, and too many in Florida are Bible-thumpers to believe in the slippery Romney; no one is seeing Huckabee as viable, either.
January 28th, 2008 at 3:30 PM
@Rockabye – Interesting that you and others see things coalescing for McCain. Republicans–and particularly conservatives–have no love for the man. He basically is to Republicans as Zell Miller was to the Dems. That may fly in a handful of states, but he’s probably not going to do well on Super Tuesday (and, hopefully loses in FL as well).
January 28th, 2008 at 4:08 PM
Sportsgal, I disagree with your notion that a candidate can’t promote a new idea in order to win an election and then follow through with it. In fact it happens all the time. Whether or not they are willing or able to follow through with that idea after being elected is quite another story of course. Republicans’ use of the Contract with America in 1994 and Democrats pledging to pass certain types of legislation–including a badly needed (IMO) minimum wage hike–in their first 80 hours in power are both fine examples of this. LBJ largely won by promoting the idea of the Great Society in 1964 and in carrying through with the Civil Rights crusade that JFK had begun before his assassination. Nixon won in 1968 by pledging to bring down troop levels in Vietnam (which he did do) and again in 1972 by promising “peace with honor”.
I spent a good deal of time studying the science of polls as an undergrad Political Science major and so I have a great deal of faith in polls, provided they include the right information. For political polls, try to look for those that have a confidence interval of 95%, that poll Likely Voters and not Registered Voters, and that have a decent margin of error (0.5-3.5% is a decent margin or error and reflects a legitimately sized pool of respondents). Confidence Interval and Margin of Error are usually that small print that you see at the bottom of the polling graphic on TV, online, or the newspaper.
The problem with polls is that they are often misused and misinterpreted. It’s also tough for people to have confidence in them because there’s so many crappy ones out there that are openly partisan and not scientific at all. The idea is to see through the crap and look for the respectable ones.