So … Are the Duke Blue Devils Legit?
College Basketball February 11th. 2008, 5:25pm
We only saw the second half of Duke’s rousing victory at North Carolina last week. But you cannot underestimate the end result – No. 2 Duke is now a staggering 21-1, and 9-0 in the ACC. The Blue Devils are late triple by Pitt away from being unbeaten. Coach K’s boys have the 2nd best RPI in the country, and their strength of schedule is 7th. Gerald Henderson has improved tremendously after a tentative freshman campaign, Kyle Singler looks to be the second coming of Christian Laettner, and much-maligned point guard Greg Paulus has found his shooting touch after a horrible start to the season. The defense has been subpar, but it hasn’t hurt them because Duke has so many players capable of a scoring binge – Henderson, Singler, DeMarcus Nelson, et al. But …
we’re still not sold.
a) If it’s possible, the strength of schedule is misleading. The rout of Wisconsin was at home, Marquette is a middle-of-the-pack Big East team, and, as we’ve written before, the ACC is a parity-filled joke (three teams in the RPI top 40; the A-10 has four). You can only beat who you play, blah, blah … we don’t think anyone truly knows how good Duke is.
b) UNC point guard Ty Lawson – arguably the Heels’ most important player – missed the Duke game due to injury.
c) Your interior defense: Lance Thomas, a promising but raw 6-foot-8 sophomore, and Singler. This leads to potential rebounding issues – Duke only has two players averaging more than 5.0 rebounds per game, and nobody in the top 17 in the ACC.
d) According to rarely-accurate bracketology, here are some potential 8/9 seeds that Duke, as a top seed, could face in the second round of the NCAA tournament: Clemson, Ohio State, Rhode Island, Arizona, Florida, Oklahoma, USC and Mississippi State. Right now, we’d more than like the chances of Arizona, Florida and USC on a neutral floor against Duke. Clemson gave Duke trouble in Cameron, Rhode Island has the offense to hang with Duke (but not the D), and OSU plays ugly Big 10 ball that could possibly lead to an upset. Ditto for Oklahoma, but less so. For what it’s worth, we don’t think any of those teams – maybe Arizona or USC – could beat Kansas or Memphis, and just as we are weary of Duke, we are unsure about the other No. 1 seed, Tennessee.
Photo: Icon Sports Media
50 Responses to “So … Are the Duke Blue Devils Legit?”
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February 11th, 2008 at 5:27 PM
TBL, do you still think Washington State could beat UNC?
Even without Lawson, UNC would dominate Washingston State.
I think Duke is a Sweet 16 upset victim waiting to happen.
February 11th, 2008 at 5:28 PM
Duke is going to run’n'gun to a title and it is totally possible in the tourney. Unlike the NBA where teams play you 7 times in a series and are ready for it.
February 11th, 2008 at 5:30 PM
TBL, do you still think Washington State could beat UNC?
Yes.
February 11th, 2008 at 5:31 PM
They can’t score with Carolina, I got to see Washington State/UCLA and came away incredibly unimpressed by Washington State. Not a single player on that team scares me, Hansborough would have another 39 point night like he did last night.
February 11th, 2008 at 5:46 PM
Maryland has a really good interior offense and could give Duke a run for their defense. Might be a good game. But to answer the question, I think Duke is like a good 90% of teams in the game: if their jump shots aren’t falling … they’re easily beatable. No interior offensive to pick up any weak jumping shooting night will be a difficult task.
February 11th, 2008 at 5:47 PM
Terps had their chance at home … if they win in Durham, i’d be (pleasantly) shocked
February 11th, 2008 at 5:48 PM
It’s always tough to admit Duke is good. They seem top notch this year. Unless it’s a close game, in which they usually seem to choke it away.
February 11th, 2008 at 5:50 PM
Can’t score with Carolina…reminds me of the Regional Final a couple years back when the supposedly horrid Badgers were down a bucket late before falling 88-82
When you’re that poor on defense anyone can score with you
February 11th, 2008 at 6:05 PM
how can duke not be for real when they always get the calls from the refs?
i havent even watched a college basketball game yet this season and i know that duke gets all the call…last year they didnt get every game handed to them and they were awful.
February 11th, 2008 at 6:06 PM
If Longar was playing for Oklahoma they would have the best shot because their interior would anihilate Duke on the boards..Teams that run and gun usually don’t win an NCAA title. Texas and UNC last year, Nova in 06, Illinois in 05, Gonzaga every year. You need that balance to get you through that one game where the shots don’t fall.
I think Duke is a player short of getting there. Not to mention their best OOC wins are against teams built exactly like them outside of Wisconsin.
February 11th, 2008 at 6:06 PM
Pomroy defense rankings: 12 raw, 7 adj for tempo. (7 and 2 for offense efficiency)
Also, Duke has outrebounded its opponents so far this year. Interior defense is a concern, but you have to get the ball to the post players before they can score, something every team Duke’s played this year has had trouble doing. Yes, UNC was missing Lawson, but their problem Wednesday was defense, not offense. He might have swung the game over to UNC, but I doubt it.
February 11th, 2008 at 6:22 PM
Tallguy – What do those Raw/ADJ #’s even mean?
They’ve given up over 70 in 6 of their last 7 games and four of those games were at home.
And do you have a link to rebounding stats? I couldn’t find one.
UNC hasn’t played a lick of defense all year. Duke gives up over 70 often … UNC regularly gives up 80 (eight times).
February 11th, 2008 at 6:26 PM
UNC regularly gives up 80, but they also are about tops in the nation in scoring. People said the same thing in ‘05, then we go out and win a national championship.
I think TBL underestimates the ACC. As of a couple of days ago, no ACC team had a losing record and the league was RPI #1.
February 11th, 2008 at 6:31 PM
this is way off topic…but TBL your boy LZ Grandersen and most of page 2 for that matter has been putting out a large number of “white people suck” articles out for the couple of weeks. sorry folks but i just read his last one on craig hodges bein blackballed from the nba and im just sick about hearing or reading about how bad i suck for being white…again sorry folks
February 11th, 2008 at 6:41 PM
Duke is better than they were last year, but that doesn’t mean a whole lot. They still hopelessly chuck up tons of threes, play marginal defense, and have zero size in the middle. Sweet 16 and out.
February 11th, 2008 at 6:48 PM
Duke is as legit as their 3 point shooting percentage. If it goes down, they can’t compete. If it stays up, they can beat anyone and everyone.
February 11th, 2008 at 6:53 PM
“Tallguy – What do those Raw/ADJ #’s even mean?
They’ve given up over 70 in 6 of their last 7 games and four of those games were at home.”
kenpom.com — bookmark it
If you’re going to judge a team’s defense by total points per game allowed rather than points per possession, then you only reveal your lack of basketball knowledge. Duke gives up so many points because it plays quickly on offense, not because it plays poor defense.
Then again, you said that Jon Scheyer was one of the worst D-I players. Ask Roy Williams if Scheyer is not good enough to play in the ACC.
February 11th, 2008 at 6:55 PM
ginyard and thomas stepped up huge getting extra playing time against duke, carolina lost because duke was lights out from three, hansbrough choked HUGE from the line which is unlike him, and ellington went frigid, none of that wouldve changed if lawson played. give credit where credit is due
February 11th, 2008 at 6:57 PM
wait how does TBL feel about carolina? because if one of the reasons you arent sold on duke is they had trouble with clemson and carolina needed three extra periods to beat clemson this season, you MUST not think carolina is a one seed right?
February 11th, 2008 at 6:59 PM
btw if duke gets a one seed theyll probably get the charlotte bracket and wont have to play a game outside of NC until they possibly make the final four, so unless theyre playing uncc or ncstate dont kid yourself to think it will be a neutral floor
February 11th, 2008 at 7:04 PM
@mrejr8234:
After you wrote that, I went over and read Granderson’s article. It touches on race, but it never made me feel ashamed of being white, and I didn’t get the impression that’s what the writer was trying to convey. I thought it was an “NBA and bureaucracy” suck, not white people
February 11th, 2008 at 7:12 PM
Sorry Maggs, but Detroit was voted the most miserable city
In other news, the sky is blue…
February 11th, 2008 at 7:18 PM
ok you maybe right jibbel i was probably just misreading it. maybe i was just misplacing my anger toward scoop jackson’s dumb ass columns and the latest whitlock column (who by the way i usually love to read.)so in fairness to granderson (not that he gives a shit what i think.) i was wrong about that.
February 11th, 2008 at 7:21 PM
Duke plays excellent on ball and perimeter defense. They get turnovers and they make it hard for the ball to enter the post. This makes up for the lack of size they have. In addition they are rotating well and taking charges, things mcroberts were terrible at. Size is nice, but its not the end all be all, just ask Shaq or Tim Duncan. The three point line has changed the game. Duke spreads the floor on offense to take the best big guy on the opposing team out of the game. They will always have a miss match on offense. This is what leads to a lot of open 3balls. If those are not falling they can still beat teams in the paint (despite lack of size) because Singler, Nelson, Henderson are guys who can drive and score and very few teams have defenders capable of guarding all three. FT shooting of Nelson and Henderson is the weakness of this team, it cost them in the pitt game.
When Duke won in 2001 Mike Dunleavy got time at the 4. Boozer was undersized and fell to the second round on draft day. Somehow they were able to contain the 7 foot beast known as Loren Woods
Moleman makes a great point. Duke wants that 1 seed in the east.
February 11th, 2008 at 7:43 PM
Robert – please do not compare the LOADED UNC 05 team with a bevy of lottery picks to this Duke team. That UNC team was dominant. This Duke team, despite the record, is not dominant.
Moleman – For my thoughts on UNC, do a search on the upper left part of this site on UNC. I don’t think the Heels play any defense and are overrated.
Ving – Well aware of Ken Pom and I checked all those defensive stats before posting. I do like to take into account common sense, at that point, it becomes a subjective argument. Louisville has horrible stats because of the litany of injuries it has had. Pitt has a bloated RPI but it nothing like the team that beat Duke. The RPI hates ASU, which lost to Washington at home, but swept Arizona. Stats and #’s can be interpreted many ways.
As for Scheyer, he’s just an awful college basketball player – since softened
to ‘he’s not an ACC-level Duke guy.‘ … a far cry from ‘one of the worst players in D1.’
February 11th, 2008 at 7:52 PM
Louisville did not have horrible stats. 33 on adj OFF and 6 DEF. Off should even creep higher as padgett gets more games. BP wrote today about Louisville. The ‘common sense’ said they were a bad team hence unranked in the polls. The stats said they were a good team for sure #2 in the big east. Also, ESPN poll still does not have Louisville ranked. They have Vandy at 19, talk about a joke.
February 11th, 2008 at 7:56 PM
@ mrejr8234:
I don’t read Scoop. I tried reading him a few times, found his viewpoint incredibly one-dimensional and superficial on multiple subjects. Granderson talks about race with the complexity and openness it deserves. Whitlock I think does too, even though he crosses some lines sometimes I think. Scoop doesn’t in my opinion. He tries to be deep but comes across as shallow, kinda like Album or Savage Garden
February 11th, 2008 at 7:59 PM
I love how the article equates being a victim of violent crime of equal misery as being a Cubs fan.
February 11th, 2008 at 8:00 PM
So you find the defensive efficiency stats to be meaningless? Duke does not have a great post defender, but its overall defense (pressure on the ball, forcing turnovers, etc) is excellent. That it has given up over 70 ppg is a function of its own offense more than defensive shortcomings. Total points per game is the most overrated statistic re: defense. Otherwise, Princeton would be the best defensive team every year just because they run down the shot clock (and not because of how they actually guard teams).
I’m confused re: your view on Scheyer. Is he awful? Is he ACC-caliber? I’m not saying he’s a star, but 11 ppg on the second ranked team in the country doesn’t sound awful. If he were as bad as you suggest, he wouldn’t be getting any run on a 21-1 team.
Like I said above, I bet Roy Williams finds him to be ACC caliber…
February 11th, 2008 at 8:10 PM
i read everyone jibble white or black…for laughs i even read Stephen A. Smith…(thank you tbl for introducing me to his blog…its priceless) even if i dont agree with some of their opinions i like to read them so i know what im disagreeing with. scoop sucks but he did have a decent column on the shaq trade. lz’ last 2 columns have been sub-par. whitlock seemed like he woke up on the wrong side of the bed this morning. but usually he skewers all races with the same knife. he is kinda like dave chappelle before all the pixie drama. but in the end i would much rather just read a insightful sports column with out having race thrown at me all the time. and other tbl faithful may hate me for this but i like bill simmons. he sometimes gets to repetitive but he right some good columns when he wants to. and i am relatively new to the tbl page… you guys can thank the cowherd drama for bringing me here.
February 11th, 2008 at 8:14 PM
he writes….there all better
February 11th, 2008 at 8:15 PM
What makes you think Arizona belongs on the court with Duke? Is it the home loss to UVA? TBL, you are blinded by your hate for all things
February 11th, 2008 at 8:15 PM
I think you gotta go with Utley ($4.5M) TBL
or maybe Fausto Carmona ($350k)
February 11th, 2008 at 8:16 PM
Duke, and cant see they certainly are a top 4 team right now. This coming from a UMD fan, and I think we can beat them Wednesday.
February 11th, 2008 at 8:17 PM
Carl Crawford ($4M) also cheap as hell
February 11th, 2008 at 9:19 PM
Anyone else see that horrendous call to end the Nova/Georgetown game?
Game tied…Nova had the ball and lost it. A Hoya picked in up and was barely touched, 85 feet from the bucket. The ref called a foul with .1 on the clock.
Terrible call that handed G’town the game.
This is why people hate refs.
February 11th, 2008 at 9:22 PM
true. oh well, at least it didn’t happen in the tourney.
did lebron dress in larry hughes’ uniform tonight?
February 11th, 2008 at 9:30 PM
I can’t like Duke, UNC is Stu Scott’s crew.
Then again, you cannot take that ball from that boy. Coach K told him it was his basketball and he was special.
February 11th, 2008 at 11:34 PM
I’m not sold either…on your logic. At this point I feel like you’re just trying to be irreverent, because you first said the Maryland/Virginia Tech week would be their measuring stick, then the UNC game, they won all of those, now what’s your excuse for hating?
February 11th, 2008 at 11:35 PM
I attended every single UNC home game in ‘05 but one, so I think I can compare them.
That team was constantly maligned for defense, yet in the end, they helf Mich. State and the Ill. to halfs where they shot under 30% in the final four. I heard the same thing all through ‘05 about poor defense. When your games have 10 more possessions per game than any other conference game, it is not unreasonable for an opponent to have a high ppg average.
Furthermore in terms of talent, this unc has more.
Tywon > Raymond — Ray was fast, Ty is faster, plus much better decision making and fewer turnovers
Elligton Jackie Manuel — wash defensivly, but Marcus can score
Tyler = Sean May — hard to give one the nod over the other, though May was a soft
Deon/Alex = Jawad — Williams was a senior, but no lottery guy, he couldn’t finsih. Deon and Alex gives the ‘07 team a better front line.
The ‘07 team might not be drafted quite as highly, but they should be very close.
February 11th, 2008 at 11:38 PM
Marcus should be a wash with Jackie.
Rashaad was a better shooter than Ellington, but remember in ‘05 he missed the last half of the season and wasn’t productive during March because he was sick with a mystery disease and his mom had cancer.
February 12th, 2008 at 1:23 AM
they dont win that title without jawad williams performances late in the tourney, i dont see that coming from deon
February 12th, 2008 at 8:26 AM
I dont want to say it TBL, but Duke escapes Austin last night. Kansas is soft.
February 12th, 2008 at 8:41 AM
Duke is better than I thought they were. They look to be pretty solid and well rounded, plus they play a very good game. They looked markedly better than UNC in that game, although I know they were without Lawson. They look like a one seed to me at this point. Now how will they fare in the tourney? Who knows.
Hmmm, who is #1 in the RPI?
February 12th, 2008 at 8:58 AM
Small correction but Clemson and Duke could not play in the Round of 32 because they are from the same conference. Teams from same conference will not be matched up until the sweet sixteen.
February 12th, 2008 at 9:47 AM
TENN #1 in the RPI rankings mean nothing to me
who is #1 right now
who will go undefeated to the final four and win the national championship
sean jean your VOLS are frauds and will not be able to run and gun with MEMPHIS fuck TENN as well as Duke
February 12th, 2008 at 10:04 AM
lol. Alright then. I guess we’ll just have to see. Just for the record, I don’t think anyone runs and guns quite as well as Tennessee. Like I’ve been saying all year, inside play is their Achilles heal.
February 12th, 2008 at 10:07 AM
i got nothing but love for you sean jean but your team is going down and i cant wait
February 12th, 2008 at 10:36 AM
Lots of bball left to play broski.
February 12th, 2008 at 12:55 PM
The worst thing is that of all teams, why does Duke have to play the most entertaining brand of basketball? As much as I’m a UCLA homer, the Duke style of basketball is far superior (at least to watch) then almost any other team — although I haven’t really seen Memphis play this year.