Baseball Preview: NL East
Baseball March 27th. 2008, 4:08pm
Quick recap: Our AL postseason picks are the Red Sox, Yankees, Tigers and Angels. Today, we shift to the weaker league. Last year in the NL East, we took the Phillies, and were summarily ripped by you guys. Then the Mets went through an epic September collapse – seriously, it was one of the worst season-ending disasters in MLB history – and we were somewhat vindicated. We’re doing it again.
* 1. Philadelphia Phillies – Most fearsome lineup in the NL. Not totally sold on the rotation, but it’s also not too far behind what the Mets have. The bullpen, however, is. Brad Lidge and Tom Gordon? Reason to worry. We’re thinking 90 wins and a narrow division title.
* 2. New York Mets – Johan and Pedro! Too bad this isn’t Pedro from 2000. Do think Johan will be incredible, though (23 wins, sub-1.75 ERA).Helluva lot to love about this team (ridiculous lineup, fantastic top two pitchers), but something’s holding us back from the lofty accolades everyone else is hurling their way. Stoic Willie Randolph, perhaps? Brittle Carlos Delgado? Unstable Billy Wagner?
3. Atlanta Braves – Despite losing Andruw Jones, the offense remains solid (Tex, Francoeur, Larry), but the old ancient pitching staff is much weaker than the top two teams in the division. How would you feel if a fossil like Tom Glavine and Mike Hampton were in your rotation? Think 80-85 wins.
4. Washington Nationals – The offense isn’t terrible, but they don’t have the pitching to overtake the Braves. Nice new digs, though. Smelling 77-81 victories.
5. Florida Marlins – Any of our readers who pay money to see this team clearly are gluttons for punishment. If you’re that hard-up to see future (current?) stars like Hanley and Maybin and Uggla, set up a nice summer trip (it’s not like anyone’s going to Europe with the US dollar so worthless) and enjoy the game at someone else’s ballpark.
70 Responses to “Baseball Preview: NL East”
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March 27th, 2008 at 4:09 PM
At least the Nats, Marlins, and Giants will keep the Buccos out of the NL basement this year.
March 27th, 2008 at 4:10 PM
Beyond Johan being amazing, the best part about his addition is pushing O. Perez and Maine back in the rotation. Maine may be the best #4 in baseball.
March 27th, 2008 at 4:11 PM
I like your thinking, Baseball Friend.
March 27th, 2008 at 4:15 PM
Is this a TBF or TBL post? Usually if it’s TBF there’s some sort of announcement.
March 27th, 2008 at 4:15 PM
I thought TBL wrote this?
March 27th, 2008 at 4:16 PM
Am I the only one who thinks Santana’s down year last year could be a sign of the things to come?
March 27th, 2008 at 4:16 PM
That said, there is no way on God’s green earth that the Mets lose this division. I could definitely see the wildcard coming out of this division though (Phillies).
March 27th, 2008 at 4:17 PM
Wait..what the Phillies Rotation is not far behind the Mets? That is the worst analysis ever…the Phillie Lineup.,.all day and all night better than any in the NL and probably the second best in baseball (Tigers) but Cole Hamels is their best..Meyers is ok..Moyer is 107..Kyle Kendrick? adma Eaton…please ..please..and that bullpen is terrible…will it be close..sure…but the Mets got this. Mets Philly..Nats… Braves Marlins
March 27th, 2008 at 4:17 PM
jim..yes you are..Johan dominates…John Maine wins 18 games…
March 27th, 2008 at 4:20 PM
must be the stigma of a being a philly fan, when you pick them it makes me think they will suck
March 27th, 2008 at 4:20 PM
Sorry 412…Nats will finish ahead of the Buccos, but Ian Snell better be the best pitcher btw. the two. 80-82 to 75
Phillies (By a hair), Cubs, Diamondbacks, Mets (WC)
March 27th, 2008 at 4:21 PM
Phillies all the way. When I am watching the NL, I am watching the Phillies. The Mets are old, they’re just, like, so old. I do worry about relief pitching, but that is also over valued.
March 27th, 2008 at 4:22 PM
Sub-1.75 ERA?? No way, not even in the NL.
March 27th, 2008 at 4:22 PM
This one’s all me, ladies.
No way the Mets don’t win this division, huh? interesting.
March 27th, 2008 at 4:23 PM
Went to a Mets game last year and thought they were a fun team to watch, especially Jose Reyes.
Santana will thrive in the NL, the NL is a much easier league to pitch against.
March 27th, 2008 at 4:24 PM
When I started looking at this season I was going to have the Wild Card come out of the West..but there are 4 teams that will kick the shit out of each other..the winner might have 88 wins…the East to me is The Mets and Phillies…I hear Brave talk but I have the braves winning 75 games…their rotation is old..their Bullpen sucks and if Chipper gets hurt (99% yes) that team has issues…I say the Nats are a scrappy 81-81 and Mets win 95 Phillie wins 93…my only concern is if a team in the Central, like Milwaukee just pounds that weak parts of that division and the Cubs go win 100..then the WC could come out of their…but for the sake of the duel with Gonzo…Mets-Phillies NLCS..Johan Hamels..Game 1..Let’s Go.
March 27th, 2008 at 4:25 PM
@Ben60657
That said, there is no way on God’s green earth that the Mets lose this division. I could definitely see the wildcard coming out of this division though (Phillies).
UHHHH, I wonder if anything like this might have been said about the Mets last year with about 15 or 20 games left in the season???
March 27th, 2008 at 4:25 PM
In the last 50 years, there have been seven seasons of a starter with a sub-1.75 ERA (Koufax in ‘64 and ‘66, Gibson in ‘68, Ryan in ‘81, Gooden in ‘85, and Maddux in ‘94 and ‘95) and only two of them won 23+ games (Koufax in ‘64 and Gooden in ‘85). Where can I sign up for the wager that says Santana misses one or both of those projections?
Also, Mets rotation >>> Phillies rotation. The Phillies rotation is a lot worse than ‘not too far behind’ the Mets.
March 27th, 2008 at 4:26 PM
the Mets are relying on a lot of “bounceback” years. Delgado, Reyes, Pedro, Maine, Wagner (he shit the bed end of the year). Not so easy.
March 27th, 2008 at 4:28 PM
@JohnnyB: There was stuff said like that, and all it took was one of the worst collapses ever to make it not happen. Excellent use of a single data point to try and prove a point though.
March 27th, 2008 at 4:28 PM
Yeah, the Baseball Friend is going to choke when he sees this Johan prediction.
March 27th, 2008 at 4:29 PM
TBL: Congrats on the Philly pick from last year. I checked the link out to see your analysis, and you said the best pitching rotation in the NL came down to Philly and San Diego…yuck.
Unstable Billy Wagner? Really? Closers are overvalued as hell and never used properly, but Billy Wagner has been sickeningly good for 11 out of the last 12 years (the one bad year being an injury shorted season 8 years ago)
March 27th, 2008 at 4:29 PM
Reyes? Bounceback? .280, 119 runs, 78 steals….12/60s in HR/RBIs. If he
“Bouncesback” I call championship in my fantasy league.
March 27th, 2008 at 4:30 PM
Guys, guys, guys: in my eyes, both teams are overrated. Surely we can.all agree on that.
March 27th, 2008 at 4:30 PM
Just a thought: The West overachieved big-time last year.
March 27th, 2008 at 4:33 PM
Reyes had a nice year, but we all know his AVG was terrible last 2 months of the season. his Avg should have been over .300 – and Wagner also played terrible down the stretch. You can’t deny this.
March 27th, 2008 at 4:34 PM
TBL…IT’S A LOCK….your a betting Man…get on that while you are still on the bottom floor..of the 2008 NL Shit Kicking tour…Featuring Cy Young Winning Johan Satans..Next Big Thing Johnnie Maine..the Resurgent Pedro…and the always fun Ollie Perez (My pick as First Met to toss a no-no)…and don’t forget Ladies Man David Wright…and the always fun Jose Reyes
March 27th, 2008 at 4:34 PM
Small sample size alert.
March 27th, 2008 at 4:37 PM
I really am thrilled that the Braves are flying under the radar. I love the analysis “If Chipper is hurt, they’re in trouble,” apparently ignoring Teixiera, Francoeur, McCann, Escobar, etc…And yeah, the pitching is old. But it’s not like our season is riding on Glavine or Hampton. If you lived in Atlanta or regularly read the paper, you would know that NO ONE is relying on Hampton pitching a single inning. They were burned by doing that the last few years.
March 27th, 2008 at 4:39 PM
Well slap me silly and call me Susan, I had no idea the inferior league that doesn’t have the DH would be easier to pitch against!
March 27th, 2008 at 4:43 PM
What are the stats on how many times the AL was won the world series vs. the NL? Is it really that big of a gap that the NL is that inferior? Is that what all that is based on or are there other factors..
March 27th, 2008 at 4:47 PM
ATL…my best friend is a Braes fan..I know full well about Mike Hampton…you should worry that he will be healthy and pitch because it keeps Jurgens or James out of the rotation..and Wagner was not as horrendous as you portray Gonzo…he had a couple of rough games..where he killed us was that back stiffness he never told Willie about and then screwed up teh over used bullpen leading to Jorge Sosa throwing 2 and half innings in a game after throwing 3 the night before…losing to FL in extra innings with a week to go…ugh…let’s remember something..it took 17 games to lose the division….I will never live it down..but we had just went on a stretch encompassing the beginning of September that put us 7 up…and led the division comfortably the whole season.
March 27th, 2008 at 4:48 PM
Guiness..AL/NL/ fluctuates over time…in the last 10 years the NL has won 3
March 27th, 2008 at 4:49 PM
oh..ATL…when everyone on ESPN picks you to win the Division..you no longer fly under the radar.
March 27th, 2008 at 4:50 PM
Is Jurrjens or James that bad? Are they not just as good, if not better than, just about any 4th/5th starter in the league? Let’s think objectively here and put the homerism to bed.
March 27th, 2008 at 4:50 PM
Guiness, it’s not specifically the World Series results, more the overall talent that exists in the leagues. Since 1995 the AL leads in championships 8-5.
Also, the AL has won the last 10 All-Star games, not counting the infamous tie game.
March 27th, 2008 at 4:51 PM
@Ben60657:
@JohnnyB: There was stuff said like that, and all it took was one of the worst collapses ever to make it not happen. Excellent use of a single data point to try and prove a point though.
When someone makes the statement “no way on god’s green earth that the Mets lose that division”, I would think it would be the almighty lock of all locks and in the bag. My point is, they found a way to lose it last year when they were as much of a lock as you could find anywhere. Now, the season hasn’t even started yet and you are acting like its already over.
Lots of baseball to be played. No way can we call the Mets winning the East a lock, not after they couldn’t win it last year.
March 27th, 2008 at 4:51 PM
@RWH–re: under the radar–I was referring to on this board. But now that you mention it, I hadn’t even seen that on espn.com. Yippee.
March 27th, 2008 at 4:56 PM
Jayson Stark, Steve Phillips Tim Kurkjian..Braves…and I was not knocking James or Jurrgens…I was saying Hampton keeps on out..and I don’t think that helps your team.
March 27th, 2008 at 4:59 PM
Okie dokie, I am terrible remembering stats and the like. My husband and step-son recall all sorts of stuff like that..could explain why my Astros got blown away by the Sox in four..sad, very sad
March 27th, 2008 at 4:59 PM
@RWH–I’ve heard that argument before, and I don’t buy it–if Hampton performs like he can (and obviously stays healthy), then he’ll be as good or better than anything Jurrjens or James can contribute. If he’s not healthy, then obviously one of them will step in and take a spot in the rotation. If he underperforms, well, that’s another story. Bobby Cox is slow to yank a veteran from the rotation due to performance.
March 27th, 2008 at 5:00 PM
Could not be more meaningless. The AL is a better league, but that’s the absolute worst way to come to that conclusion.
March 27th, 2008 at 5:01 PM
As for my homerism…yeah…so are you..so is Gonzo and so is anyone that roots for a team…you defend your own..but objectively..I think your team has bigger issues…You traded an All-Star SS so a 22 year old who had a good half season can play..he might not even be your SS in July is that kid in AAA comes on…you lost an All Star CF and Mark Kotsay replaced him..Matt Diaz can hit but not field…Kelly Johnson needs to stay healthy and he swooned at the end of the year…I watch Tommy G last year..enough said…Hampton has been hurt for 4years and your bullpen is bad and Soriano already has elbow stiffness…I think things are not as rosy as ESPN and some might thing.
March 27th, 2008 at 5:01 PM
@JohnnyB: You know what’s not fun, saying that a lot of teams have a decent chance and that there’s a lot of baseball to be played. Making bold, yet reasonable predictions actually forces analysis and discussion instead of vague generalities such as ‘lots of baseball to be played.’ Zzzzzzzz.
League Dominance: The AL has won the last 10 ASG, 8 of the last 12 WS, and holds an overall winning record in interleague play (including a 154-98 record last year).
March 27th, 2008 at 5:02 PM
Diesel, apparently some people don’t know that because they think Johan having a down year by his standards in the AL last year, means he will continue that in the NL. Slap me silly, that was my point.
March 27th, 2008 at 5:05 PM
No worries, I just felt like being a smart ass. Johan will certainly have an easier run of it in the NL, I just don’t agree with TBL’s predictions.
March 27th, 2008 at 5:07 PM
These preseason predictions are very valuable information. I mean everyone had the Colorado Rockies in the World Series last year.
March 27th, 2008 at 5:07 PM
I’m not completely sold on the Mets, but
is batshit insane.
March 27th, 2008 at 5:08 PM
@cbh: the discussion, analysis, and shit talking is fun though.
March 27th, 2008 at 5:08 PM
@Ben: Can’t win ‘em all! Just gotta keep our heads up. Boring cliche.
March 27th, 2008 at 5:08 PM
Roman, ATL, we are going to have much fun here starting Sunday (when the Braves lose to the Nats on Sunday night baseball) then the Nats have to travel to Philly for a 3pm game and the Phillies home opener and the Phils whoop their ass. (who designed this schedule?)
My prediction: Phils, Mets, Braves, Marlins, Nats(worst record in the entire league)
March 27th, 2008 at 5:10 PM
Nick…you play these games one game at a time…its a marathon not a sprint..Momentum is you next games starting Pitcher…so if you put you heads don and work hard you should come out ok.
March 27th, 2008 at 5:11 PM
Gonzo, the Nats were supposed to have the worst record in the league last year and didn’t. They won’t this year, I think the Marlins take that prize.
\Being hypocritical by partaking in preseason predictions
March 27th, 2008 at 5:11 PM
Gonzo…I am leaving here early Monday so I can watch Johan’s first game…Unfortunately…I can not go to Opening Day at Shea..with Pedro..always a treat when Pedro pitches.
March 27th, 2008 at 5:13 PM
@Roman: Walks just clog up the bases.
/Just realized that’s not a cliche, but my managers’ credo. Ouch
March 27th, 2008 at 5:13 PM
My boss just gave me 2 tickets to Sunday’s opening night, Nats-Braves game. Lower level, behind 3rd bse dugout. Nice
March 27th, 2008 at 5:13 PM
come on CBH…Preseason predictions are Fun..I say Johan Wins the Cy Young, Chase Utley wins the batting Title and Matt Holliday wins the MVP..but I will be pissed because Wright deserved it.
March 27th, 2008 at 5:13 PM
Hey Nick..a walk is as good as a hit
March 27th, 2008 at 5:18 PM
A walk is as good as a singleas long as there isn’t a guy on second or third that could’ve scored.
Fixed
March 27th, 2008 at 5:20 PM
@ben: it’s still not an out though. So almost as good…
March 27th, 2008 at 5:22 PM
Of course, anything is better than an out.
March 27th, 2008 at 5:23 PM
I know Roman, I see both sides of it, everyone makes predictions but it’s funny we get so passionate about it considering how off we are most of the time.
March 27th, 2008 at 5:25 PM
I agree CBH…but what the hell else would we talk about than our opinion on things…besides the actual outcome of games and the accumulated statistics…everything else is our opinion and how it compares to others opinions
March 27th, 2008 at 5:29 PM
@RWH: My opinions are right and your opinions are wrong.
March 27th, 2008 at 7:44 PM
Hey all…
This was a TBL post. Had I written this, it would have been 2ce as long and 3 times as clever!
In all seriousness, I’m putting the Mets 3rd this year. I like Beltran, Reyes and Wright, but not much else on offense. Obviously, Johan is the best pitcher in baseball and I like Maine as well. But I think the Braves are poised to make a real run at this thing. If Smoltz is healthy I’d take him and Hudson over Johan and Pedro. Plus, the lineup is VERY good with Tex in it (he’s going to go off this year. 40 bombs, etc.) I think at some point they’re going to have to upgrade over Kotsay who can’t really cover CF ground anymore, but I think they have as good a shot as anyone to unseat the Phils. I’d go Phils 1, Braves 2, Mets 3, and pick ‘em between two of the worst teams in baseball in the cellar.
Oh, and I’d also take the Rockies lineup over the Phils, but we’ll save that for my NL West preview…
March 27th, 2008 at 9:12 PM
@Roman…the Phillies bullpen is not terrible, that’s a ludicrous statement.
Caveat: I am a Phils season ticket holder…and I also think the Mets will win the division.
@TBL…Maybin got sent to Double A to start the season.
March 28th, 2008 at 12:39 AM
I said it before and I’ll say it again:
I’m not at all sold on the Mets, but how are we still talking about the Phillies’ rotation?
Hamels-Myers-Moyer-Kendrick-Eaton? Seriously?
March 28th, 2008 at 2:03 AM
this kind of analysis is only good for starting flame wars. PECOTA is going to be better at this 10 times out of 10. the smart money is on the mets.
March 28th, 2008 at 7:32 AM
PECOTA is going to be better at this 10 times out of 10. the smart money is on the mets.
Can you make baseball projections and not take a glimpse at PECOTA? The brightest baseball minds in the universe can crunch all the #’s they want … projections are worthless, whether you are reading them here or elsewhere. I’m sure the smart $ was on the Mets last year, too.
March 28th, 2008 at 12:34 PM
so we agree projections of all kinds are worthless, yes? PECOTA can and will be wrong, its definitely not infallible, but its just that it will be consistently better at predicting season results than any human by a considerable amount. and if someone predicts a result better than PECOTA, it will be becaue of luck, not anlysis. because if anyone can consistantly predict baseball btter than PECOTA they would be rich beyond imagination from vegas.
http://vegaswatch.net/2008/03/tim-kurkjian-and-buster-olney-are.html
so my point is these type of predicts re only good for getting baeball fans pissed off at each other. which is fine, lord knows i like nothing more than hating on braves and phillies.