The Detroit Tigers, a Statistical Hot Mess
Baseball April 8th. 2008, 5:01pm
Coming into this afternoon’s game against the Boston Red Sox (update: down 5-0, can’t hit the Gyro), the moribund Detroit Tigers, the only winless team in baseball, only have an 18 percent chance of making the postseason, according to the math geniuses at Baseball Prospectus. (Ed. – Here’s a PECOTA prognostication, if that’s your bag.) Let’s see, 2nd highest payroll in baseball, zero victories, divide by four, carry the one … WE’RE NOT EVEN TWO WEEKS INTO THE SEASON! Sorry for shouting, but sometimes, baseball’s obsession with stats simply wears us out. No Granderson. No Zumaya. Patience is necessary.
A legit cause for concern? The early schedule was put together by Dr. Kevorkian, obviously: a weekend trip to Chicago (they were swept last weekend by the White Sox), followed by a brief respite with the Twins (unless Liriano pitches, then all bets are off), and then road trips to Cleveland and Toronto. So 5-15 isn’t out of the question. But if you’re the doomsday type, a reader has pointed out that fielding wizard Placido Polanco made an error today, his first since we were in high school devouring the only good cafeteria food there was – chicken nuggets. End of days, indeed.
Tigers fans aren’t the only ones in early season look-for-the-nearest-ledge-to-jump panic mode: the Mets lost today, are 2-4, Pedro’s hurt, Luis Castillo is excrement, and you can be damn sure if this continues, the savages at Shea will be looking to get rid of one Willie Larry Randolph.
Debunking and validating the week of crapitude (Detroit Tigers Weblog)
Game 6: MEHHHHHHHHHH (Mack Ave. Tigers)
Photo: Icon Sports Media
59 Responses to “The Detroit Tigers, a Statistical Hot Mess”
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April 8th, 2008 at 5:04 PM
Well, they only need 30 in a row to match the best start in history, which was by the 1984 Tigers 35-5. Thumbs crossed!
April 8th, 2008 at 5:04 PM
Hmmmm, I’ll bet you mean ‘Tigers’ fans aren’t the only ones in early season blah blah blah.
April 8th, 2008 at 5:05 PM
Thank you, Detroit.
Sincerely,
Cleveland Slow-Starters
April 8th, 2008 at 5:05 PM
Only five more months until football …
April 8th, 2008 at 5:05 PM
There’s a difference between saying they’ re not going to make the playoffs and openly questioning what the hell is happenning. Something is definitely wrong in Detroit.
April 8th, 2008 at 5:05 PM
AL Manager of the Year Dave Trembley.
\Just loving a reason to be happy as an O’s fan
April 8th, 2008 at 5:06 PM
It’s gonna take at least 92-93 wins to win the Central, if history is any indication, and starting 0-6 does put you way behind the 8 ball.
April 8th, 2008 at 5:07 PM
NL manager of the year (again) Bob Melvin. Guy’s a genius.
April 8th, 2008 at 5:08 PM
Dickie V. would say that the first four games of the season are the most crucial, but he’s already run that over-used theory into the ground.
April 8th, 2008 at 5:09 PM
There’s only one way to explain the O’s 6-1 start and the Tigers 0-6 start. The Orioles are on a mission, the Tigers are not.
\Digger Phelps
April 8th, 2008 at 5:13 PM
Totally Hef. Best Manager by far. Dbacks 100 wins!
April 8th, 2008 at 5:14 PM
Virtual dollar bet on that under, YYSA?
April 8th, 2008 at 5:15 PM
At least my Giants are living up to expectations.
April 8th, 2008 at 5:17 PM
I was a big fan of enchilada day back in high school.
April 8th, 2008 at 5:20 PM
Saying they have a reduced chance at making the playoffs doesn’t seem too out of line. Why don’t you tell Baseball Prospectus to move out of his mother’s basement, TBL?
April 8th, 2008 at 5:20 PM
TBL shouldn’t be allowed around numbers/statistics. Ever.
April 8th, 2008 at 5:21 PM
The Tigers’ bullpen is a mess. They have no rotaional depth so yeah, I will side with the folks at BP over TBL. And the Dbacks winning 100 games?!?! Try closer to 86-88 and second place behind the Dodgers.
April 8th, 2008 at 5:24 PM
For the record, it’s 43%.
April 8th, 2008 at 5:30 PM
Nick, how much do I owe you in virtual dollars?
April 8th, 2008 at 5:33 PM
Nick, I’ll accept your challenge. Dbacks win 95-100 games. 1000 virtual dollars.
April 8th, 2008 at 5:33 PM
Detroit’s bullpen is an absolute mess, if they settle it down and actually have some healthy relief pitching they’ll be fine and competitive, but being a White Sox fan, I thank Detroit for allowing us some early season hope that we can atleast compete in the division. The Royals look good too, the Indians and Tigers look good on paper, and the White Sox are showing some good heart and ability.. the central is pretty much a toss up, itll be a fun summer to see who puts it together for a whole season.
April 8th, 2008 at 5:36 PM
Enough to buy one ZJ.
April 8th, 2008 at 5:36 PM
@Hef: Done.
April 8th, 2008 at 5:42 PM
Brandon Lyon = Mitch Williams
April 8th, 2008 at 5:45 PM
The Mets have hosted the Philles for opening day a total of 8 times, and this is the first time the Phils have won. I am ecstatic. We are NOT under .500 (record 4-4).
April 8th, 2008 at 5:46 PM
D’Backs DO need a closer, but they are a much better team than the Dodgers (who won’t sniff 85 wins)
April 8th, 2008 at 5:47 PM
0-7. Spectacular!
April 8th, 2008 at 5:50 PM
@onterriosmith: They have Tony Pena and Chad Qualls if Brandon Lyon fails to close. Either one is capable but it will probably be Pena since he’s more of a strikeout pitcher.
April 8th, 2008 at 5:52 PM
@Nick: I’ll enter it into my virtual sports book.
April 8th, 2008 at 5:54 PM
The Dodgers have the best ERA in the league right now. The best bullpen in baseball. As soon as they stop trotting out Loaiza and/or Chan Ho Park every fifth day and go to Kershaw/McDonald/Schmidt/my mom they will have the best rotation 1-5 in the league. On top of that, Martin, Kemp, and Jones will hit better sooner rather than later and Laroche will come back to take over third from Dewitt. The Dodgers will win the division by 2 games.
April 8th, 2008 at 5:57 PM
Beaver, I’m sure you have an intelligent point about the Dodgers there. But I just can’t get “your mom” and “beaver” out of my head.
Just kidding. I don’t like the Dodgers chances this year. I think the division is too stacked. They’re pitching will be good, but I don’t like their offense a little bit.
April 8th, 2008 at 5:57 PM
Joe Torre will get out managed by NL managers and the Dodgers will finish 2nd
April 8th, 2008 at 6:04 PM
@gonzo: +1. I think that it is the safe opinion to say the Dodgers won’t have enough offense but in reality they don’t have a real weakness in the lineup as soon as Laroche returns every day.
@YYSA: BP has virtually proven that managers don’t make that much of a difference (year to year) in team performance. The only thing that scares me about Torre would be how many at bats he gives Pierre over Ethier and Kemp. If Pierre gets 400+ at bats this year it will probably cost the Dodgers about 2 wins and probably the division.
April 8th, 2008 at 6:09 PM
@beaverbeliever: according to this
, the Dodgers have the 4th best ERA in the league. Three spots behind, wait, who’s that, oh yeah: The NL West Champs.
April 8th, 2008 at 6:14 PM
The Tigers are a fucking joke so far. They aren’t playing hard, making stupid mistakes, horrible at-bats and bad pitching. The problems are up and down the roster and up and down the coaching staff. I am so pissed off at the lack of offense. If they were losing 7-6 and 6-5, that would be more expected. This is unacceptable and embarassing. They should all be embarassed. Fucking joke. Goddamit … I could not wait for baseball season and this is what he have to fucking watch.
April 8th, 2008 at 6:20 PM
My mistake, I had my information from BEFORE Loaiza’s and Park’s abortion of a pitching performance. Touche Hef.
I think we can agree that the Dodgers still have a better pitching staff top to bottom than the D-Backs while the D-Backs have a better top of the rotation. I think the division will be won or lost depending on how the Dodgers and D-Backs young position players improve.
April 8th, 2008 at 6:20 PM
Webb, Haren, Owings, Randy Johnson (who pitched well when healthy but is a crap shoot all the time), Edgar Gonzales (who gets better every year), Yusmero Petit who is really looking nice and Doug Davis who scares the hell out of me and loves to walk guys as a joke are the best rotation in the NL, let alone the NL West. Next.
April 8th, 2008 at 6:22 PM
Owings is going to win 15 games this year. His cieling is very high
April 8th, 2008 at 6:22 PM
As for position players, Young already has three HRs and looks like his patience at the plate is improving, Reynolds has already hit 4 HRs including a 455 ft shot last night that almost hit the Fatburger sign, Upton has 3 HRs and is hitting for average, and Drew is the second best defensive shortstop in the league behind Tulowitzki. When Snyder, Hudson, Byrnes and Connor Jackson start hitting, look out. Dodgers will lose the division by 5+ games. Sorry.
April 8th, 2008 at 6:23 PM
@YYSA, if you had said that before the season I would have shrugged and agreed to disagree. He looked amazing the other day. Like a new man.
April 8th, 2008 at 6:27 PM
Worst signing in Baseball this offseason: ANDRUW JONES 18 million a year. Thats a Million a hit.
April 8th, 2008 at 6:30 PM
Between Jones and Pierre, that veteran outfield looks awful. Both of those were bad siginings for the Dodgers. I’m more afraid of their young guys (Loney is on my fantasy team because I saw him play last year a lot) than their old guys. Kent still seems to have something in the tank but maybe that’s just against AZ.
April 8th, 2008 at 6:31 PM
Not even close. That was one of the better marquee contracts signed, because it’s only two years. The Hunter and Silva contracts were both much, much worse.
Are we seriously making judgments on players/teams/pitching staffs seven games into the season?
April 8th, 2008 at 6:44 PM
@Vegas: We’re combining preseason expectations with first week results. I know you’re the expert, but allow us to marvel at improvement over last year’s first week.
I agree with the Hunter/Silva contracts (though many Angels fans might disagree after last night’s walk-off salami) but 18 million for a man who is playing like shit after the PED crackdown? Hmmm……
April 8th, 2008 at 6:51 PM
18 million for a guy that hit .220 last year.
April 8th, 2008 at 6:52 PM
Doesn’t really matter what they think now. They’ll agree when they’re paying him $18MM in 2012.
The point is, if you needed a CF, your options were Jones for 2/36, Rowand for 5/60, and Hunter for 5/90. The Dodgers made the right choice.
April 8th, 2008 at 6:58 PM
See Vegas this is where I disagree. Their best option for centerfield was have faith in Matt Kemp.
April 8th, 2008 at 7:02 PM
Well, if they hadn’t signed Jones, Pierre would’ve gotten 600 ABs. The Dodgers and “having faith in [insert talented, cheap young player here]” don’t really go well together.
Also, it doesn’t have to be a brilliant contract to be better than Rowand/Hunter. Those both really sucked.
April 8th, 2008 at 7:05 PM
I agree with YYSA, giving Jones that much money to stunt the growth of one of their best young talents was a bad move. The right choice was not spend the money and do what another (unnamed) team in the NL has done: promote from within or trade for up and young/proven talent by giving up the young guys you won’t play.
April 8th, 2008 at 7:07 PM
Giving Andruw Jones that much money is never the right/best option.
April 8th, 2008 at 7:15 PM
This was not the issue. The issue was whether it was the worst contract of the winter. It wasn’t.
I am not going to argue for the Dodgers’ policies of not playing their young talent, as I think said policies are extremely stupid.
April 8th, 2008 at 7:22 PM
Last word.
April 8th, 2008 at 7:23 PM
I’d much rather give Jones 18 million if it meant I could either A. trade him next year if he bounces back or B. Only have him for two years and then clear his contract. I’d rather do that than sign Gary Matthews and then Hunter to terrible deals in back to back years.
April 8th, 2008 at 7:37 PM
Especially when you have Willits, who needs at-bats and gets on base better than both guys.
April 8th, 2008 at 7:47 PM
It’s official: both LA front offices don’t know dick about aquiring/managing talent. Artie Moreno, you have my number.
April 8th, 2008 at 7:59 PM
I agree that Ned Colletti is an idiot but I will say that I would like the Andruw Jones signing IF Torre would just bench Pierre and play an outfield of Jones, Ethier, and Kemp. This would give the Dodgers the best outfield considering the what was a) available in free agency b) what the available free agents were signing for and c) what the Dodgers currently have in the farm system. Delwyn Young is their only other viable in-house OF option and he isn’t a good everyday player.
All the trade options that were floated around this off-season would have meant the Dodgers were giving up too much of their young talent (Kershaw, Hu, Kemp, Broxton). Although it does appear a player like Lastings Milledge could have been had for a song.
April 8th, 2008 at 9:23 PM
I really hate Willie. I’ve been saying he’s sucked for years and he just keeps making me look like a genius……oh and 4 more years of luis castillo is giving me nightmares.
April 8th, 2008 at 9:32 PM
Luis Castillo is as bad as Juan Pierre. Maybe they picked up all their bad habits together in Florida.
April 8th, 2008 at 10:12 PM
Jim Leyland looks like he’s up to six packs a day. The Tigers are paper champions. They haven’t won a game, let alone a title. They do have a powerful lineup, but they’re pitching is questionable in my mind. Until they get back on their feet they are dead in water. If their losing streak gets any worse, they’re in major, major trouble.