Our new numbers guy, Max Wasserman, is now taking requests. A reader’s question: What the chances that each pro sports team from Philadelphia (Phillies, 76ers, Eagles, Flyers) could go 25 years without a title? Crunching the numbers – math rules – after the jump.

Reader Tim sent in a request. He wanted to know what the odds were of a city with all four major sports teams not winning a championship since 1983, for a total of 100 seasons (25 years x 4 sports).

The process for determining this probability isn’t too difficult. It involves multiplying the expected values of 100 Bernoulli distributions. A Bernoulli distribution has two possible outcomes, success or failure. The probability of success is a variable p, the probability of failure is, of course, 1-p. p is also the expected value of a Bernoulli distribution. For this simulation, the value chosen for each distribution is the probability that a team will not win a title in that year assuming everything is random. Ironically, this means that failure on the field is a success in the simulation.

Well Tim (who we can safely assume is from Philadelphia) now has a statistical basis for his bitching, as he put it. Assuming everything is random, the odds of none of the four teams winning titles in 25 years is 2.4%.

That certainly puts a damper on my justification for bitching. Being from the D.C. area, I ran the numbers for the Washington teams, who haven’t won a title since 1991 (I was five), for a total of 51 seasons (16 years x 3 sports + 3 years x 1 sport). The probability is only 16.8% for the District. Damn. First the Flyers get lucky and now this.

However, the City of Brotherly Love has nothing on Cleveland. They have not won a title since 1964, a total of 124 seasons (43 seasons x 2 sports + 38 seasons x 1 sport). The probability of zero titles in that time is 0.75%.

But cheer up everyone! Only a few more days until Indiana Jones plays the Nationals!