Your American League All-Stars
Baseball July 8th. 2008, 12:15pm
Jason Varitek. Jason Varitek! Jason Varitek? Intern Bill sizes up the AL roster. NL tomorrow. This photo? It’s old, but comical. The grin, the girls, the abundance of turquoise, and of course, the goofy clown with the black undershirt and shades indoors. Ricky is not happy with that development. Also, we hear Derek Jeter and Michael Jordan are throwing a massive party early next week for the MLB All-Star game. If anyone has details, kindly email us.
The way the All-Stars are selected are as follows:
Starters – Fans vote online. An individual can vote like 20 times.
Reserves — Fellow players do the voting.
Pitchers — The manager makes the selections.
This wouldn’t all be so intellectually bankrupt expect for the fact that after an All-Star game ended in a tie a few years ago, the baseball front offices in New York felt that the game should “count.€ Therefore, the winner of the All-Star game gets to have home field advantage in the World Series. And baseball is considered to be one of the better run sports leagues in America.
The following is our take on the selections, who missed the cut, and various baseball apocrypha that probably won’t be as boring as the standard “who got snubbed†pre-ASG coverage. First up, the American League!
AMERICAN LEAGUE STARTERS
First base: Kevin Youkilis (Boston): Solid choice. Plays a terrific defensive 1B while being the best offensive 1B in the AL.
Second base: Dustin Pedroia (Boston): Lousy choice. Indefensible choice. Pedroia isn’t even the best 2B in his own division (that honor would go to Orioles 2B Brian Roberts). Texas’ Ian Kinsler is probably the MVP up to this point in the season. But what else can we expect from the pizza-throwing, racial-epithet hurling degenerates of the New England area? Ballot stuffing must be stopped.
Shortstop: Derek Jeter (New York): Not quite as bad as the Pedroia choice, but still bad. Jeter happens to be the 2nd best SS in a down year at the position in the AL. He’s behind Rangers SS Michael Young. Both are bad. Both play truly horrid defense.
Third base: Alex Rodriguez (New York): Leading vote getter, best 3B in the AL, and might be the MVP up to this point in the season. This one is a no-brainer.
Catcher: Joe Mauer (Minnesota): Mauer is neck-and-neck with Atlanta’s Brian McCann as the best catcher in baseball. McCann hits for more power, Mauer gets on base more and is a better defensive player. Either way, right choice.
Outfield: Josh Hamilton (Texas): Great story. Amazing player. Wrong choice. JD Drew would be the right pick here, who also happens to hold the honor of the most disliked player in MLB.
Outfield: Manny Ramirez (Boston): We love Manny. The dreds, the base-pimpin’, the seemingly obvious marijuana use no one mentions but everyone whispers about (allegedly!). But Johnny Damon might be the better choice here. Or even the Chicago White Sox’s Carlos Quentin. Damon is currently on the DL, so Manny is defendable choice.
Outfield: Ichiro Suzuki (Seattle): Miserable pick. Grady Sizemore is far and away the best CF in the AL. Ichiro’s been getting his managers fired and mailing in his season since the middle of last year. Any chance we’re getting some Yao Ming-style ballot stuffing from our friends overseas?
DH: David Ortiz (Boston): Without question, the worst fan voting pick, possibly ever. Ortiz hasn’t played since May. And the number of possible replacements are legion. Milton Bradly ain’t playin’ games this year (sorry- too easy), Jermaine Dye is having an All-Star caliber season. Even Peter Angelos’ red-headed step child Aubrey Huff is doing well. Hell, put the Giam-BALCO on the team. It’s Yankee Stadium! Anything would be better than Ortiz.
PITCHERS
Mariano Rivera (New York): Can’t do too much better than a 100% SV conversion rate. The G.O.A.T. until proven otherwise.
Scott Kazmir (Tampa Bay): The Scott Kazmir/Victor Zambrano trade never gets funnier for people who like to torment the Mets. Didn’t former Mets pitcher Al Leiter try to get Kazmir traded because he didn’t show him respect? Wasn’t there a player troika of John Franco, Leiter, and Mike Piazza that held the Mets back for years? Everytime Kazmir throttles an AL East opponent (and this happens often) think of Scott Kazmir facing a pitcher every three innings. It’s good for the soul!
George Sherill (Baltimore): The flat-brimmed RP was part of the haul for the Bedard trade, which is looking worse and worse for Seattle as the days pass. If the Orioles are serious about rebuilding, they’ll trade Sherrill by the All-Star break.
Roy Halladay (Toronto): Terrific starting pitcher for the Toronto Blue Jays and perennial Cy Young favorite (provided he stays healthy) is not only a worthy addition, but also fills the Canadian quota. Solid selection.
Jonathan Papelbon (Boston): This is a pretty miserable choice, not because Papelbon’s had a bad season, per se, but because so many other relievers have played so much better. As an alternate, how about Baltimore pitcher James Johnson, or Tampa Bay’s Dan Wheeler? Matt Thornton has been righteous for the Chicago White Sox as well. I think it’s time we as a society get over the “Save.”
Justin Duchscherer (Oakland): A 1.96 ERA and a 3:1 K/BB ratio, “The Duck” has been terrific for the rebuilding A’s.
Joe Nathan (Minnesota): The closer for the Twins has been locked-up long term, and a good selection. Matt Gurrier is also a solid RP worthy of consideration. It still breaks my heart the now-injured Pat Neshek missed out on the All-Star game last year.
Joakim Soria (Royals): A quota filler here for the Royals. Zack Grienkie would have been an inspired choice, but the hype, the NY nightlife, and the abuse he’d take from standing in the middle of the sidewalk in Times Square would probably make him forget to take his meds, move to a cabin Montana with a full-bearded Jake Plummer, 30 AK’s, 400 lbs. of C-4 and a bear.
Cliff Lee (Indians): The best pitcher in the AL to date, Lee should be the starter in this year’s mid-summer classic.
Francisco Rodriguez (Los Angeles): Remember how Martin Gramatica celebrated so much after kicking a field goal that he hurt himself and it basically ended his season? Part of us wants to see the same thing happen to the irritatingly named “K-Rod.” It’s three outs people, many times in super-low pressure situations. Enough with the moundgasms.
Ervin Santana (Los Angeles): Shawn Marcum (had he been healthy) might have made a good choice, as would Santana’s AL West counterpart, Felix Hernandez. Remember how the Orioles had a deal on the table for Ervin Santana and Erik Ayabar for Miguel Tejada, but turned it down because they thought they could contend? In what year? Does it matter?? Somewhere, O’s fans are trying to forget the nightmare that has been their post-1996 history.
Joe Saunders (Los Angeles): We mentioned a few pitchers that might fit better here. Pick one of them.
RESERVES:
J.D. Drew (Boston): Good choice.
Jason Varitek (Boston): This is proof-positive that the players might actually be dumber than the fans. Jason Varitek is having probably the worst season out of any catcher in the AL. In a year when he should be playing for his next contract, he’s more or less playing like his career is over. Even Varitek’s agent, Scott Boras, is telling him to curb his expectations, and Scott Boras got Rick Porcello $8 million dollars. Want to find a more deserving backup? Buy a stack of baseball cards, open it up, and take out a catcher. There are always like five of them in there. Whoever you picked would probably be more deserving.
Joe Crede (Chicago): More evidence of the above. Crede is a good player who hustles, plays the right way, and probably gets along well with everyone. But why not select Evan Longoria, probably the 2nd best 3B in the AL right now? Mike Lowell would be a good choice as well.
Carlos Quentin (Chicago): Good choice.
Grady Sizemore (Cleveland): Good choice.
Carlos Guillen (Detroit): A versatile player who can field 1B, 3B, SS, and while at SS was basically the offensive equal of Derek Jeter. And Mariners traded him away for a song! Unbelievable the dysfunction in that organization.
Justin Morneau (Minnesota): Another weird choice, this one a touch more defensible. Mourneau is probably the 3rd best 1B in the AL this year. The Yankees Jason Giambi might be a bit more deserving, if you consider falling down, getting injured, and DH’ing for half the season playing first base.
Milton Bradley (Texas): Good choice.
Ian Kinsler (Texas): Good choice.
Michael Young (Texas): Good choice.
Dioner Navarro (Tampa Bay): A player who has bounced around a lot in his young career is among the best defensive catchers in the AL. I’m just surprised the players knew who he was.
229 Responses to “Your American League All-Stars”
Leave a Reply
You must be logged in to post a comment.

July 8th, 2008 at 12:19 PM
Brian Roberts should definitely be in and a case could be made for Nick Markakis.
If the Orioles are serious about re building they need to hold on to some good players, I don’t get why everyone wants them to trade Roberts and Sherrill
July 8th, 2008 at 12:19 PM
You are missing why Varitek got voted by the players, the rule states that if the Players and the Fans both vote for the same player (Mauer) then the player selected is the second place vote getter in the fan vote. It is completely gay but is why Varitek is on the team.
July 8th, 2008 at 12:22 PM
They definitely need to trade Sherrill. Some idiot GM would probably give up a decent prospect for a guy with so many saves.
Someone (Joe Sheehan I think) made a good point that basically any catcher besides Mauer would be a bad choice. Not defending the Varitek selection, but there are a lot of guys who would have been bad, too.
July 8th, 2008 at 12:22 PM
Excuse me a correction, it is second on the Players ballot…so yes really gay
July 8th, 2008 at 12:23 PM
Wow the players picked Varitek? That makes his selection even more ridiculous.
July 8th, 2008 at 12:23 PM
AJ Pierzynski…book it
July 8th, 2008 at 12:28 PM
this comment might be the MVP up to this point in the season
July 8th, 2008 at 12:28 PM
They still play the All-Star game? Ahh, that’s so cute.
July 8th, 2008 at 12:29 PM
Wait, why is Josh Hamilton a bad choice again?
July 8th, 2008 at 12:33 PM
freakin rickey henderson. should have sold his rookie card right after he broke Brock’s record.
July 8th, 2008 at 12:34 PM
A comment can’t be MVP. And neither can LeBron with his current supporting cast!
July 8th, 2008 at 12:34 PM
Why is Rick Porcello getting 8 million a bad idea? I think he got a major league deal which is a bad idea, but that bonus wasn’t.
July 8th, 2008 at 12:38 PM
Josh Hamilton was been en fuego this season. Please tell me JD Drew being a better choice was some kind of joke.
Appropo of nothing… One of my degenerate friends sent this to me the other day. Not terribly work appropriate…
July 8th, 2008 at 12:38 PM
Any chance we’re getting some Yao Ming-style ballot stuffing from our friends overseas?
well done. Nice jab at Yao
July 8th, 2008 at 12:43 PM
JD Drew over Hamilton!!?? What the fruck?!
Have you even looked at the numbers?!
Drew had one decent month and did shit the other ones.
Hamilton’s numbers dwarf Drew’s in all catagories.
Intern Bill, you should be dismissed.
July 8th, 2008 at 12:46 PM
any chance varitek declines the position? i would hope his teammates put some pressure on him to do so as they have a shot of making the series and you dont want varitek coming up in a late inning at bat in a game that will decide if youre playin game seven in fenway or arizona
July 8th, 2008 at 12:47 PM
jermaine dye is a douchebag.
July 8th, 2008 at 12:47 PM
that will decide if youre playin game seven in fenway or arizona
Bahhahahahahhaha, Arizona, that is the funniest thing I have ever read on here.
July 8th, 2008 at 12:48 PM
hey im just throwing a name out there
July 8th, 2008 at 12:51 PM
Arizona? Wow. So, they’re awarding the NL to the team that has the best April? I missed that story.
July 8th, 2008 at 12:52 PM
Pedroia isn’t even the best 2B in his own division (that honor would go to Orioles 2B Brian Roberts).
/shedding tears of joy
July 8th, 2008 at 12:53 PM
hey its more probable than the phillies or cubs not shitting the bed in the postseason
either way, doesnt matter who is playing, point is the same. the game matters, thus you dont want varitek in it
July 8th, 2008 at 12:53 PM
the seemingly obvious marijuana use no one mentions but everyone whispers about
i have never heard that about Manny.
July 8th, 2008 at 12:54 PM
cbh, I agree about keeping Roberts but i think getting rid of Sherrill by the trade deadline would be smart. His value will never be higher and he’s 31 now. We won’t be good enough again to possibly win the division for another couple years and he will be on the decline. Dump him now and grab some prospects.
July 8th, 2008 at 12:54 PM
A reporter once asked Rickey if had Garth Brooks’ album Friends In Low Places. Rickey replied “Rickey doesn’t have albums. Rickey has CD’s”.
July 8th, 2008 at 12:55 PM
JD Drew’s OBP and slugging: .407 and .560 49 walks, 60 strikeouts
Josh Hamilton’s: .366 and .544 35 walks, 62 strikeouts.
JD Drew is having a better year.
July 8th, 2008 at 12:55 PM
Wait was that JD Drew over Hamilton one of those things where you make an outrageous statement just to get attention?
July 8th, 2008 at 12:55 PM
Obviously, mole knows more about soccer than he does baseball.
July 8th, 2008 at 12:57 PM
oh for fucks sake i just picked an NL team. sure the west sucks ass but its not completely out of the question that the team who gets in (going out on a limb and saying the WC isnt coming from out west, and i think arizona will rise above the pile of shit to win the division). especially considering how much of a ‘crapshoot’ the playoffs are
July 8th, 2008 at 12:58 PM
Interesting that OBP and slugging now determine who is greatest. What about .308, 19 HRs, and 85 RBI vs. .299, 16 HRs, 51 RBI?
July 8th, 2008 at 12:59 PM
Hey, if the Rockies could do it last year why not the D-Bags this year?
July 8th, 2008 at 1:00 PM
RBIs are not a stat of measurement. End of conversation.
July 8th, 2008 at 1:00 PM
RBI doesn’t matter, that’s all about who gets on in front of you. Average is pretty meaningless when compared to OBP and slugging. And true Hamilton does have him out homered. It also could all be because he plays in the best hitters park in the AL.
July 8th, 2008 at 1:01 PM
Drew has 150 total bases to Hamilton’s 191.
July 8th, 2008 at 1:01 PM
I’m a Sox fan and a Sox blogger, and I don’t see how you can argue that Josh Hamilton should not be in the starting lineup.
July 8th, 2008 at 1:01 PM
because records at the halfway point determine who is going to be in the world series, especially when a team could probably play ten games over 500 baseball the rest of the way and still win their division and the other two division leaders are going to be in tight races with actual good teams
July 8th, 2008 at 1:02 PM
drew uses initials for his first name, thus hes a douchebag
July 8th, 2008 at 1:02 PM
Guessing Intern Bill is not an Angel fan. Saunders leads league in wins and doesn’t deserve to be there eh?
July 8th, 2008 at 1:03 PM
Ill, Roberts is also 31, so why trade him but not Sherrill?
July 8th, 2008 at 1:03 PM
@mole: CC Sabathia is gonna hunt you down for that. Or is it OK because he dropped the periods?
July 8th, 2008 at 1:03 PM
I meant so why not trade him?
July 8th, 2008 at 1:04 PM
412- Yeah, in 90 more at bats. Whoop tee.
July 8th, 2008 at 1:04 PM
It may be to our detriment but if we finish around .500 this year, Angelos may not want to do much more rebuilding, he may believe this team can contend.
July 8th, 2008 at 1:05 PM
if your first name is carsten i think you get a free pass.
but aj, jd, those are prime douchebag names
July 8th, 2008 at 1:05 PM
Do you think it’s possible the players voted for Varitek due to the fact that he called his fourth career no hitter this season? I could envision that alone would cause a majority of pitchers to vote for him, regardless of his (lack of) offensive production.
July 8th, 2008 at 1:06 PM
imagine what its like to be a pirates fan, the same scenario but with no money to spend
July 8th, 2008 at 1:09 PM
Mole, the new stadium didn’t bring in any money?
July 8th, 2008 at 1:10 PM
the only time ive seen a sellout there in the two years of being subjected to pirates hell on fsn is when they played the yankees. its usually a ghost town.
they may have some money, but they either wont spend it, cant get people to play for them, or use it on stupid contracts like matt morris
July 8th, 2008 at 1:11 PM
cbh, I think that Roberts can remain effective for a longer than Sherrill. Sherrill is approaching his maximum innings pitched and we’re at the halfway point. He’s going to burn out. I like the guy, i just see a GM giving up way too much to get Sherrill at the deadline and we need to hop on offers like that.
July 8th, 2008 at 1:13 PM
Ill, I see your point.
July 8th, 2008 at 1:14 PM
Mole, Pitt should push to move to the AL Central. They may stand a chance there.
July 8th, 2008 at 1:15 PM
I would consider 41 additional bases in 90 at bats significant.
July 8th, 2008 at 1:16 PM
the only league the pirates could contend in is the summer league their state college affiliate plays in. and then it would be a close race
July 8th, 2008 at 1:17 PM
ill – The Pirates could make a go of it in the NL Central as well. The key is making smart personnel moves, which they hadn’t done from ‘92 through ‘07. The new GM seems to at least have a brain, so there is some hope.
July 8th, 2008 at 1:18 PM
Interesting that OBP and slugging now determine who is greatest.
lol. exactly
RBI doesn’t matter, that’s all about who gets on in front of you.
so getting a hit to score runs is no big deal? what a bunch of garbage that is
July 8th, 2008 at 1:18 PM
C’mon! Wins are like the 12th best stat to look at when figuring out pitcher effectiveness. I really hope that was tongue in cheek
July 8th, 2008 at 1:19 PM
is there a comparison of their performance with runners in scoring position? i think baseball reference has that if im not mistaken, that would seem to be a better measure.
July 8th, 2008 at 1:20 PM
number one on that list: carrying no hitters into the eighth inning
/gavin floyd for president
July 8th, 2008 at 1:20 PM
Clutch hitting is a myth.
July 8th, 2008 at 1:21 PM
Especially with Chris Ray coming back, the O’s should shop Sherrill and see what some desperate GM might offer. I’d hate to see them trade Roberts though. The fans deserve one player to have some kind of attachment to.
July 8th, 2008 at 1:22 PM
We are being a bit silly when we start devaluing RBI as a stat. It’s not the end all be all, no. But, when one guy has 85 and the other guy has 51 (as well as more HR and total bases), please don’t tell me that this is irrelevant to the discussion.
July 8th, 2008 at 1:24 PM
It is. In a big way.
July 8th, 2008 at 1:24 PM
412, I’d like to ask your opinion on something: It’s the bottom of the 7th inning, and there are 2 at bats. One player hits a home run, the other hits a single. Which is the more valuable event?
July 8th, 2008 at 1:25 PM
RBIs is not a stat used to compare players skill levels. Ever. Some players have far more opportunities than others to drive in runs (hitting order, quality of team, home ballpark). You can’t use RBIs for one player and against another.
July 8th, 2008 at 1:27 PM
@Sanchez, agreed. O’s fans do need some familiar face over the next couple of years. There will be/are plenty of new ones.
July 8th, 2008 at 1:29 PM
I’m comparing who has had the more productive year. Is Drew a better player? Possibly (he’s not), but that’s not what I’m talking about here. The game is still about scoring runs, right?
July 8th, 2008 at 1:30 PM
So how do you replace RBIs? Batting average with RISP? That doesn’t actually show anything about runs driven-in… just curious.
July 8th, 2008 at 1:31 PM
And who is overrated because of their RBI numbers? Once again, just curious…
July 8th, 2008 at 1:32 PM
Adjusted batting runs is all you need to measure a hitter’s value, which Drew holds a slight edge in.
When you factor in Drew is a better fielder, the choice becomes even easier.
July 8th, 2008 at 1:32 PM
fetch – I wasn’t discussing OBP. Getting on base is good. Undeniably. Driving in the runner on base is better.
Again, I was under the impression that runs are still vital to wins and losses. I’m silly that way.
July 8th, 2008 at 1:33 PM
Use VORP.
July 8th, 2008 at 1:36 PM
Players have to be on base for you to drive them in.
July 8th, 2008 at 1:38 PM
So, to summarize: Hamilton wins in batting average, total bases, HR, RBI. But, Drew leads in adjusted batting runs, so it’s an easy decision as to who is having the better season.
Wow.
July 8th, 2008 at 1:38 PM
@The412: Yes.
July 8th, 2008 at 1:39 PM
Having actually played the game for 12 years I am familiar with the concept.
July 8th, 2008 at 1:39 PM
I always forget what the statheads teach. The goal of an offense isn’t to score runs, but to pursue VORP, whatever the fuck that is.
July 8th, 2008 at 1:40 PM
Why do people even argue over who starts, everyone get’s in anyway.
Dirty, I don’t count on Chris Ray for anything, not after he has missed basically 2 years in a row now, just like I don’t count on Adam Loewen to ever be healthy.
July 8th, 2008 at 1:41 PM
Nobody ever got laid because of their VORP, damn it!
July 8th, 2008 at 1:41 PM
Hamilton>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>J.D. Drew + Stephen Drew + The Weaver Brothers+ any other brother combo in the MLB.
And what’s wrong with Joe Saunders. Yeah, he sucks; he’s only won 12 games before the ASG.
July 8th, 2008 at 1:43 PM
i just VORP’ed all over my keyboard.
ive never understood why RBI’s weren’t an important statistic even tho i agree with a lot of the other statstical analysis when talking about player value.
July 8th, 2008 at 1:43 PM
Value Over Replacement Player. In other words, how many more runs a player will contribute than an average replacement player would over the course of a season.
I know it’s asking a lot to grasp the concept.
July 8th, 2008 at 1:43 PM
There needs to be two different TBL baseball categories: One for people who know the game and one for people who think wins and RBI are the most important stats ever.
July 8th, 2008 at 1:44 PM
Im with 412 on this one. Give me Josh Hamilton anyday over JD Drew.
Does the fact JD goes on the 15 day DL if a bug flys in his ear factored into this?
Last time I looked, the scoreboard has a place for Runs, Hits and Errors, never have I seen a spot for Adjusted Batting Runs.
Color me old and clueless if JD Drew is considered having a better year than Hamilton.
July 8th, 2008 at 1:44 PM
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=204031
Hamilton has a higher VORP than Drew. I have no idea what that means, but there you go. That’s why I like football and hockey – no Bill James or any of his disciples.
July 8th, 2008 at 1:45 PM
irish, VORP is a measure of how many runs over a replacement player a player is worth. So this kind of refutes your point.
412, what the “new” stats are trying to do is find a more efficient way to find value than by looking at RBI and BA. You know the difference between batting .300 and batting .275 over the course of a year is? 1 hit every other week. Can you notice that just by watching a game?
July 8th, 2008 at 1:47 PM
@illformula- since you know it all( i knew what VORP was) explain to me how VORP is superior to RBIs and Runs scored
July 8th, 2008 at 1:49 PM
There needs to be two different TBL baseball categories: One for people who know the game and one for people who think wins and RBI are the most important stats ever
there is fetch. you guys who think certain stats are superior have a site to gather at. To think RBI’s is not a valuable stat is idiotic
July 8th, 2008 at 1:49 PM
This the best part of having a discussion about baseball with people like Fetch: when they imply you’re ignorant if you don’t buy into their arguments based on quesionable stats. And, equally as enjoyable is when they pull out the strawman and accuse me of thinking “win and RBI are the most important stats ever”. Brilliant.
July 8th, 2008 at 1:50 PM
RBI are not an accurate indicator of how good a player is. They’re an accurate indicator of how often a player came to the plate with runners in scoring position.
July 8th, 2008 at 1:51 PM
Guessing Intern Bill is not an Angel fan. Saunders leads league in wins and doesn’t deserve to be there eh?
C’mon! Wins are like the 12th best stat to look at when figuring out pitcher effectiveness. I really hope that was tongue in cheek?
Actually Jeeves – do you not approve of the 3.04 ERA. And if you knew anything about baseball this year you would know that Wins matter quite a bit for the Angels since the pitchers earn every one with that hitting they have.
July 8th, 2008 at 1:51 PM
Maybe I’m to dumb to be a baseball fan since I don’t know what half of these stats mean, but if it’s not an important stat, than why do they keep track of it (ala Saves, wins, RBIs and other “basic” stats that us idiots use)?
July 8th, 2008 at 1:52 PM
412, I have a question. I have you been called stupid a lot in your lifetime? Your ears perk up whenever the slightest implication of such occurs and you immediately jump on it. I’m not calling you stupid, but you seem really sensitive to the very notion that someone might think you are.
July 8th, 2008 at 1:52 PM
Hef – I know what the “new” stats are about–and I’m not completely averse to their usage. I’ve been reading Bill James books for probably ~ 12 years. I just have a problem with completely devaluing a statistic such as RBI simply because it isn’t a perfect measurement of a player’s value.
July 8th, 2008 at 1:52 PM
@Irish, I wasn’t trying to insult you. I was only answering your apparently your question in a similar tone to what you asked it in.
July 8th, 2008 at 1:54 PM
I always forget what the statheads teach. The goal of an offense isn’t to score runs, but to pursue VORP, whatever the fuck that is
this comment of mine was sarcasm
July 8th, 2008 at 1:57 PM
RBI are not an accurate indicator of how good a player is. They’re an accurate indicator of how often a player came to the plate with runners in scoring position.
Umm, not really because if said player doesn’t knock those runners in than it’s like it never happened.
July 8th, 2008 at 1:57 PM
RBIs are a great stat. Should be kept and always will. They are just used more by GMs to measure a players monetary value than skill level.
July 8th, 2008 at 2:01 PM
GMs who do that suck and won’t be GMs for very long.
Ask Bill Bavasi.
July 8th, 2008 at 2:02 PM
99
July 8th, 2008 at 2:02 PM
Hef – I had no idea you were so sensitive. It’s a completely different side of you than I’m used to seeing! Really, don’t worry about it. I’m an educated man (BA in English, MBA with a concentration in Finance, and am presently writing my doctoral thesis) who has done moderately well in life. So, I really don’t particularly concern myself with anonymous people on blogs who take the childish “smarter than you” tact that you try to affect. But, thanks for caring!
July 8th, 2008 at 2:02 PM
that’s what I’m not getting, cbh… opportunity affects, but doesn’t equal, production.
July 8th, 2008 at 2:04 PM
What’s Kevin Nash’s VORP?
July 8th, 2008 at 2:05 PM
I’m not trying to affect anything. I’m curious why you jump on it so quickly (granted Fetch’s comment was a little out of line).
July 8th, 2008 at 2:06 PM
Kevin Nash would jacknife powerpomb VORP.
July 8th, 2008 at 2:06 PM
Hahah, wow I suck.
July 8th, 2008 at 2:08 PM
I never said that Saunders didn’t deserve a spot in the all star game, I just said that wins isn’t a good stat to use. I’m also well aware of the Angels inability to score runs, though if we’re using that as a qualification (and I apologize if I’m putting words in your mouth here, because for all I know you may think John Danks is worthy of an AS bid) John Danks should be in the game. He gets all of 3.79 runs per start vs. Saunders 4.31 runs per start, which is more than half a run more of support. Throw in the fact Danks has an ERA of 2.52 vs Saunders 3.04, another half a run and you can see how truly useless wins are as a stat to evaluate pitchers.
Stats like Batting Average, Runs, RBI, etc are the stats that were originally (ok maybe not at the start in the 1880’s, but you get my point) to track baseball players’ performances. Those stats have hung around because A.) Baseball loves hanging onto tradition B.) For a long while there weren’t new stats devised to further evaluate baseball. C.) Everyone is familiar with those stats and they can still roughly give you an indication of peformance
July 8th, 2008 at 2:08 PM
What’s Kevin Nash’s VORP?
Slightly above Brooke Hogan.
July 8th, 2008 at 2:09 PM
You’d think someone that didn’t concern himself with people taking the “smarter than you” tact would be so quick to make us aware of his advanced degrees.
July 8th, 2008 at 2:09 PM
Naw, cbh – that comment was the pomb diggy.
July 8th, 2008 at 2:10 PM
I can’t wait until the NFL starts phasing out meaningless stats such as TD’s, completions, tackles and other things and instead comes up with mathematical equations that no casual fan will understand or give a crap about.
July 8th, 2008 at 2:11 PM
RBI are not an accurate indicator of how good a player is. They’re an accurate indicator of how often a player came to the plate with runners in scoring position.
Or how many runs they drive in, including the ones from home plate and first. Interesting that some people on here comment that others don’t know the game because they don’t fully buy into VORP and Slugging as be all and end all, but those same people don’t even understand what scoring position is.
July 8th, 2008 at 2:13 PM
Wow, die eagles. You got me. I didn’t realize you could score from first if they’re fast. I also didn’t realize that actually helps my argument more than yours.
July 8th, 2008 at 2:13 PM
Die, that might be worth a jew star.
July 8th, 2008 at 2:18 PM
Bullshit, 100% of it.
July 8th, 2008 at 2:29 PM
What about “pressure” situations?
July 8th, 2008 at 2:30 PM
uh…there’s a middle ground here, let’s all take it.
July 8th, 2008 at 2:32 PM
No one is saying that baseball fans need to learn VORP and other more recently created forms of statistical analysis. It’s simply a new, more in-depth method used by people who aren’t sold on traditional methods. There’s no reason to discredit people trying to improve on old ways.
Unless you’re really religous, of course. Then there’s only one answer for every question.
July 8th, 2008 at 2:34 PM
wins and RBIs are fun stats to check out, but they are a terrible metric for assessing a player’s true value or talent. this really isnt up for debate.
that doesnt mean you cant be a fan and keep track of players RBIS and wins and batting average and you can have an informed opinion etc etc, but you CANT argue objectively that rbis are a better indicator of a players talent than VORP or OPS+ or win shares or RC/27.
July 8th, 2008 at 2:36 PM
Aren’t RBIs really dependent on where you’re batting in the lineup and how good the players are in front of you?
July 8th, 2008 at 2:37 PM
Amen, brother. Sometimes the closed-mindedness on this blog makes me laugh. I don’t think ANYONE is saying wins or RsBI are meaningless. I think they’re saying that either stat, alone, is not a good judge of a player’s actual performance. Case in point: Andruw Jones last year got like 96 RsBI. But he fucking S-T-U-N-K. He got so many RsBI because the guys in front of him (Chipper, Renteria, Kelly Johnson) were on base ALL THE TIME. I don’t think anyone would argue that Andruw was even worth a shit last year.
July 8th, 2008 at 2:37 PM
Someone please tell me how you calculate VORP to arrive at the actual numerical statistic.
July 8th, 2008 at 2:37 PM
Alex Rodriguez, widely considered the biggest “choker” in baseball.
Career slash stats: .307/.390/.579
Caree slash stats in “pressure” situations (i.e. runners in scoring position): .304/.404/.558
He’s so unclutch.
July 8th, 2008 at 2:39 PM
Nick is that postseason or regular season? People bag on his postseason clutchness, not his clutchness in general
July 8th, 2008 at 2:42 PM
mike – i think VORP is a proprietary formula owned by baseball prospectus. so copyright law prohibit its dissemination. Run creates and win shares are believe are on wiki.
July 8th, 2008 at 2:43 PM
Until Nintendo comes out with V.O.R.P. Baseball where Vince Coleman can steal bases at will I will have to side with R.B.I.
July 8th, 2008 at 2:46 PM
Wow, die eagles. You got me. I didn’t realize you could score from first if they’re fast. I also didn’t realize that actually helps my argument more than yours.
Hef, I guess you mean helps your argument in that RBIs are predicated on who is on your team, and who is on base in front of you. This being an all-star game, I imagine there is a good chance that there will be a lot of people that can get on base, and they are probably pretty quick. I hope there is someone at the plate that can drive them in, i.e. Hamilton because he has proven he has done this.
Since you are arguing about how RBIs matter a great deal about who is on base ahead of you, I don’t think you can make a bigger arguement for why Hamilton is better that JD Drew. Clearly, Hamilton plays on an inferior team, yet gets the job done more often than Drew.
July 8th, 2008 at 2:46 PM
Is the new triple crown going to be VORP, and two other amalgam of letters?
July 8th, 2008 at 2:48 PM
This discussion needs more cowbell.
I’m with spencer on this one. The middle ground is that Tiger is the greatest athlete ever to grace this planet. Seriously, though, the best way to evaluate a player is to use ALL of the stats and watch the player. They’re both supreme offensive talents who wasted the first handful of years in their respective careers; one by being a pussy and a douche, the other by doping it up like there was no tomorrow.
They both play in great offenses, good hitters’ ballparks, and are having good years. Now I’m rambling. Let’s sing Kumbaya and have a beer!
July 8th, 2008 at 2:49 PM
@die: The Rangers have scored 40 more runs than the Red Sox.
Inferior team? Yes.
Inferior offense? Are you senile?
July 8th, 2008 at 2:51 PM
well said
July 8th, 2008 at 2:51 PM
Nick, can you please explain how you arrive at getting VORP as a statistic? Thanks.
July 8th, 2008 at 2:53 PM
@Mike: Don’t use VORP. I don’t care for it. Use adjusted batting runs (employing linear weights)
July 8th, 2008 at 2:54 PM
Thanks.
July 8th, 2008 at 2:54 PM
I never said JD Drew was better than Hamilton. Read the comment log die eagles. I never mentioned either of those guys. So again, what’s your point? Also, Nick is correct, the Rangers offense is much better than the Red Sox offense. Unfortunately for the Rangers, a team is made up of more than just offense. There’s pitching too, not sure if you knew that or not.
July 8th, 2008 at 3:00 PM
Hef, check the thread. The arguement started with Drew over Hamilton. Hence the debate.
July 8th, 2008 at 3:02 PM
@ Hef and Nick. Yes, the Rangers have scored 40 more runs than the Red Sox. Hamilton has 85 RBI, which happens to be 34 more than JD Drew has. You could almost say that the difference is Hamilton.
July 8th, 2008 at 3:03 PM
You could say that, although it would be very foolish.
July 8th, 2008 at 3:08 PM
Ha!
July 8th, 2008 at 3:09 PM
Hamilton has 50 more plate appearances with runners on base. Might have something to do with his higher RBI total.
July 8th, 2008 at 3:13 PM
For all of you guys who don’t think RBI’s are important I point you to Jose Guillen and the Royals. Too lazy to look it up, but I’m pretty sure he’s already eclipsed the total rbi’s for last year, and maybe the two years before that. and were at the midway point. I find them very important. Especially for teams who have chronic run scoring syndrome like us Royals fans.
July 8th, 2008 at 3:15 PM
/of course applying a statistic to the royals is pretty pointless to begin with. Nevermind, I’ll just go back to my hole.
July 8th, 2008 at 3:16 PM
Nick, saw your Adam Dunn should make the All Star Team post, so am I correct in assuming you feel that batting average is an overvalued stat?
July 8th, 2008 at 3:16 PM
I have to apologize for doing this to nwilson cause I like him, but to quote BP, and if anyone from there reads this I apologize for quoting a subsribers only article, but anyways, alluding to the final man voting
July 8th, 2008 at 3:19 PM
Because I don’t care about the Sonics and am somewhat curious about this … shouldn’t Hamilton get “credit” for knocking those runs in, though? I mean he still got the hits, even though the guys on base were not his doing. And if his “credit” is the RBI, how is that not important? Are you just assuming that if Drew had an equal number of chances to drive in runs that he would actually get the hit?
Is it kind of like a running back who doesn’t have a lot of rushing TDs because he didn’t get a lot of carries inside the five-yard line?
/trying to apply a football scenario
July 8th, 2008 at 3:19 PM
@fetch. I’m not here to defend that. I’m just saying that he’s been a HUGE part in turning this thing around for us. Knocking in runs has always been a HUGE problem for us. Not a good outfielder, but for me, he gets it done. We can’t always afford to get the big time power guys unless we produce them in our system, (which have all sucked) so having him knock in runs is I would think very important to Dayton.
July 8th, 2008 at 3:19 PM
The funny thing about arguing the merits of RBI with someone who values it is that the leaders in Win Shares and VORP and OPS are usually among the leaders in RBI anyway. It’s awfully tough to accumulate win shares without driving in runs in the process. So the leaders in saber categories are going to be among the leaders in the triple crown categories just about every time. But the leaders in the triple crown categories aren’t necessarily going to be among the leaders in the saber categories.
If you want an example of a player who gets over-valued by traditionalists, look at Alexei Ramirez. He’s about as average a contributor as you can find as a hitter, and yet I saw his name in the Chicago Tribune as a possible All-Star snub.
July 8th, 2008 at 3:20 PM
It shouldn’t be held against a batter for being productive with runners on. RBIs just go to prove that he is productive with runners on. His batting average shows that he is productive normaly. His home run total shows that he is nasty. Sounds like an all star starter to me.
July 8th, 2008 at 3:20 PM
If I am see it right Drew looks slightly ahead of Hamilton in linear RC. Nick, do you know the std dev on the measure?
July 8th, 2008 at 3:20 PM
Endy Chavez is better than all of these guys…Spence is right there is middle ground I have watched enough baseball in my life to know that sometimes a player is better than his stats and sometimes he is not the player his stats say he is…stats give you the outline of the player but don’t always tell the whole story…the human element is something that can’t be accounted for by stats…that being said both the old and new stats bring something to the table and overall the old time stats of a player match up the level of the player with the new timey stats…If a guy hits .300 with 30 hrs and 100 rbis he is going to match up with players of a similar ilk when it comes to VORP and the such…the newer stats go more in depth and shows why a David Wright is better than an Alfonso Soriano…but to just discount the old is ludicrous…they were good enough for 100 years..they are still a barometer and they are part of the cultural lexicon of baseball.
July 8th, 2008 at 3:22 PM
Guillen is .270/.306/.466/.773 with runners on base. There are countless guys in AAA who could do that for basically free.
July 8th, 2008 at 3:22 PM
To be fair, I think Dayton Moore is doing a hell of a job in KC. Let’s just say I’m much more afraid of the Royals going forward then I am of the White Sox.
Mike- I get your point, and I’ll try to apply a football scenario as well, perhaps poorly. It’s kind of like how if Edgerrin James plays for the Colts, where he has a good O-line to block for him and a good passing game to take the pressure off him, he’s an amazing RB, but when he goes to Arizona he sucks cause they have no line.
July 8th, 2008 at 3:24 PM
Nick, I really want to know, why Adam Dunn who is hitting .228 should be on the All Star team?
July 8th, 2008 at 3:25 PM
@Nick P–Really? Where, in Omaha? Arkansas? I can’t find one guy worth a shit in our system. Alright just kidding. For me, Guillen brings sustained power throughout his career, when we had Sweeney, and well that fat guy that is now playing for the Tbones in kc, and well not a whole lot for us. Sometimes you get a guy for just one reason right? Power? Doubles, and Homers? Knocking in Runs?
He could bat .250 and have 100 rbi’s and 30 homers and I would be elated. I would argue when your this bad, you have to start with the evaluation of the problem. We can’t score. Get a power numbers guy that has hit in a lot of guys. Ok. Buy him. (my world is so easy)
July 8th, 2008 at 3:25 PM
In all, I agree with RWH. Old stats as well as new are relevant. Honestly, I don’t know if some should be considered “more valuable” than others because the game dictates many different scenarious. In the end RBIs are important, and VORP probably is too.
@ 1 Happy St. So a stat like Win Shares should be considered valuable, but a stat like wins shouldn’t? I would say that a pitcher has a significant share to each win that he earns.
July 8th, 2008 at 3:29 PM
nwilson- Since win is KC’s AA team in Arkansas? Didn’t it used to be in Wichita?
July 8th, 2008 at 3:30 PM
Thats why you have measures such as BABIP and FIP and LD%
you can be serious… Anti advancement and technology too?
July 8th, 2008 at 3:30 PM
First of all, I think the Royals are headed in the right track due to my last comment. Getting some more power bats. Now if only we could get some more playing time for Miguel Olivo. Why is that guy just sitting there? Anyhow, I move on. As a guy who still plays 70 games a year in a wooden bat baseball league, you will never be able to tell me that when your at the plate with runners on 2nd and 3rd with 1 outs, that the situation doesn’t change. There is a different feeling when your at the plate. Hit it to the right side of the field, get the run home. or do I try to hit a gap. I think players have lost a traditional sense of the game of moving runners over and playing small ball. Everybody wants to hit long balls. Well look at the Angels a couple of years ago. St. Louis now with there shitty lineup. (I know pujols, ludwick, and that other guy), but when players don’t play the game the way it was played in moving runners over into scoring position the measurement of stats change.
July 8th, 2008 at 3:30 PM
cbh ~ I know that’s not directed towards me, but I’ll bite. It’s tough to make an All-Star case for him, but I’ll make the case that BA is fucking retarded. Sure it’s pretty to look at if it’s above .300, but for Adam Dunn, it says his ability to get on base an extra 100 times a year is completely pointless. Batting average says “fuck those 100 times, they never even happened”.
July 8th, 2008 at 3:31 PM
The Double AA team moved to Sprindale Ar starting this year. Sucks. But then again I never go to a minor league game other than Omaha.
July 8th, 2008 at 3:32 PM
Huh?
July 8th, 2008 at 3:33 PM
One last thing on VORP, it is a contrived stat. Someone invented it based on other stats to decide who was better than who. Is it pretty accurate? Sure. But it is not like OBP or Avg. or RBIs which are a more pure stat (not counting errors in RBI and BA taint those a bit). Those are tangible. So I can’t solely back a stat that was made by someone to prove a point. I am smart enough to look at everything and given the opportunity actually watch a player perform. Now Jose Guillen’s stats are not ground breaking, but a guy in KC who watches the Royals is telling you he is important to the team. If you watch and feel that way it is true. Look up Endy Chavez’s stats. He is the third most important player on the Mets this month. There is no stat that can prove that but after Reyes and Wright he is the reason the Mets have stayed afloat. How do I know? I have seen him make one play in the field or have one AB everyday to do something to better this team. I can’t quantify that in a boxscore.
July 8th, 2008 at 3:35 PM
Thank you RWH, well put. When you know a culture of a team and what one athlete does to better or worsen it stats don’t matter. Years of letdown, and disappointment can’t be measured in a box score. Her her to chavez and Guillen (unless guillen keeps trying to beat up the pitching coach)
July 8th, 2008 at 3:37 PM
SM..I am for advancement…but since you use the old stats to generate the new stats they can’t be all bad? Can they? I am not saying the new stats are bad, I am saying that telling us the old ones are is total bullshit. All stats have value and flaws. As for your other stats, tell me which one generates when your kid is sick? Which one is generated when your contract situation is bothering you? OR you are in Page Six? Or some one dies? Or you have a Bum leg? Give me those stats. Stats are solely the skeleton to the body.
July 8th, 2008 at 3:37 PM
Fetch, Not trying to start an argument here, juts honestly curious about your opinion. Are you writing the Sox off for the future based on the fact that you think their young players (Quentin, Danks, Floyd, Ramirez [assuming he actually is young], Swish) are going to regress or what? I’m an unabashed Sox fan, and was ready to begin a rebuilding campaign aimed at a run in 2010, but with the influx of young(er) talent, I’m confident the Sox can fluidly turn over the roster as their vets continue to age.
July 8th, 2008 at 3:38 PM
I always loved Rob Deer, why wouldn’t anyone listen to me?
July 8th, 2008 at 3:38 PM
Re: Jose Guillen
He is important to his team and it does appear obvious because he is slugging well. By looking at his stats and seeing his sub 300 obp you would not be suprised by the Royals in ability to score runs as a team.
Roman, you describe the narrative fallacy perfectly. Emprical methods though are superior in many respects.
July 8th, 2008 at 3:39 PM
SM..superior maybe..but perfect no.
July 8th, 2008 at 3:42 PM
Roman, I think you mean “derived” stat. And all stats are derived because it’s a math term. And also, you’re wrong and I’m already rooting for your second heart attack. Long live dr. Mengele.
July 8th, 2008 at 3:42 PM
Yes these can play a role over a small sample, along with about trillion other factors. But if you said CC pitched bad in April because of contract status what would you say now? Someone can always make up a convient story that intuitively makes sense…
July 8th, 2008 at 3:45 PM
they were good enough for 100 years
you can be serious… Anti advancement and technology too?
I couldn’t agree more SM. It’s like arguing with the Vatican here.
July 8th, 2008 at 3:47 PM
jeeves- I personally don’t think Floyd is for real, and I may be in the minority, but I don’t think Quentin is either. I think he’s good, but not this good. I’m not sure how old Nick Swisher is, but I think around 28 right? If so, he’d be on the back end of his career. Since I’m a big Twins fan all I’m saying is since their best players are relatively young and all the Sox’s are a bit older, I think the Twins have more long term shelflife. And I’m still not sold on Kenny as a GM
July 8th, 2008 at 3:47 PM
@ illformula and SM…So players should be allowed to take steroids?
July 8th, 2008 at 3:48 PM
As long as Gavin Floyd is for real this year, that will be fine.
July 8th, 2008 at 3:49 PM
SM…Maybe he doesn’t like cold weather? Maybe he had a bad burrito? Stat people are entirely too sensitive to this subject. My point is and always will be…they are the outline..not the story. Unfortunately, we turn the human player into stats on a page and judge. Many people who have these discussions don’t even bother watching the people they are analyzing play. As for certain people who love to tell me I am wrong and may write on the same site I do…we can go look at all of your posts and see if some of you may have used the old time stats or bitched about the human element. Its all part of the game. Deal with it.
July 8th, 2008 at 3:49 PM
What do steriods have to do with comparing which stats are more relevant in player analysis?
July 8th, 2008 at 3:49 PM
I must say that Roman has the most sensible approach to this subject.
July 8th, 2008 at 3:52 PM
re: Steriods
Not sure where you are going with this one, but I think players should follow the rules and should all have equal opportunity to perform in a simliar manner.
July 8th, 2008 at 3:52 PM
ii..if we were the Vatican I would have had you killed already…to take a comment out of context is very “Fox News” of you (for MikeNYC and Purdue Matt “New York Times” of you)my entire comment was about the importance of both and the use of the olds as a barometer..if the old barometer is doing the job people are not going to change…look at the US and the Metric system…does it make total sense..no..but it works and it doesn’t require the reeducation of the common fan.
July 8th, 2008 at 3:54 PM
i cant believe this debate is taking place. no one is argueing that RBIs (RsBI for the traditionalists) arent important. what (i think) people are saying is that when objectively evaluating a baseball players talent and ability, advanced metrics like VORP and runs created etc are FAR SUPERIOR tools than outdated methods like batting average and runs batted in.
its a really simple concept to grasp. RBIs and batting average are great stats to have, but they involve HUGE amounts of luck. advanced metrics try and strip the luck out of the calculations to find a players true value. and batting average is not truer or less contrived simply because it is older.
July 8th, 2008 at 3:55 PM
+1 RWH. Right on, brother.
July 8th, 2008 at 3:56 PM
How come nobody can explain in their own words what VORP means and how you arrive at it? You’re not really relying 100% on a statistic that you don’t totally understand, are you?
July 8th, 2008 at 3:56 PM
Fair enough Fetch. I agree that Floyd isn’t for real this year, at least not as real as his ERA would suggest. His peripherals are a bit out of whack. He’s at like 3.20ish ERA where his performace is more indicative of around a 4.00 ERA which is still better than league average. My worries about him are outwieghed, I guess, by the effect that Don Cooper has on pitchers.
Swish is 27, but only has 3 full seasons under his belt (not including this year) so I still have hope for some growth. Plus, he’s been much better this year than his stats would suggest, he’s been terribly unlucky. Anecdotally and statistically he’s been hitting a lot of line drives that just haven’t been falling in for him.
I guess our biggest departure is on Quentin. I’m in the school of thought that it was really his injuries in the past that messed him up; he was after all the top prospect in the D-Backs system so he does have that pedigree to back him up.
You are right that the Sox are depending on some older cogs, so we’ll have to see how KW maneuvers those pieces in the coming years.
PS – I hate the Twins for being the biggest cockteases ever. Whenever I actually scoreboard watch, the Twins will fall behind early by a run or two and then inevitably win, it’s quite infuriating
July 8th, 2008 at 3:57 PM
RWH – its not a difference of imperial vs metric system, its a difference between older, imprecise methods, and newer, more advanced and accurate measuring tools.
July 8th, 2008 at 3:58 PM
Batting average involves a huge amount of luck? How so?
July 8th, 2008 at 3:58 PM
How come nobody can explain in their own words what VORP means and how you arrive at it?
exactly
July 8th, 2008 at 3:59 PM
no one is argueing that RBIs (RsBI for the traditionalists) arent important.
kendynamo- read over the comments
July 8th, 2008 at 3:59 PM
I agree with you on Swisher for sure, I think he’s having a lot better year than people think. And I hate the Twins for doing things like batting Carlos Gomez in the leadoff spot and not Joe Mauer. Quentin definitely could be for real, I just need another year or two of it before I believe it, especially because of that park.
July 8th, 2008 at 4:00 PM
Roman, I would go Tom Hanks on your Vatican. The thing is, the barometer was broke. Look at GMs who still use stats like RBIs and BA to evaluate players. Most of them either suck and/or don’t have jobs. It is the GMs that have progressed and used more technical evaluation methods that are succeeding. I’m all for certain certain intangibles being used occasionally for evaluating a players production, but over extended periods of time (large sample size) these newer methods are proving more valuable.
July 8th, 2008 at 4:00 PM
ken…I am with you…but when you say Josh Hamilton has 20 more RBIs than somebody…we have at least 10 commenters saying..RBIs are a meaningless stat and useless and can’t measure performance…that’s who I am arguing…all stats are great…but to discount one for the other is just silly. And to just use stats as the whole story is not right either. And to take the “luck” out of anything requires one to define “luck” hitting a round ball with a round bat can be defined as “luck” as well.
July 8th, 2008 at 4:01 PM
I have no problem with the human element. Or how factors DO have effects in single games or over small sample periods. My problem is when you know tools exist that are proven (empricial evidence) to be superior and you arbitrarly decide to dismiss them because they are new. Would use like to be armed with a simple spear into a battle against a m16 because the background of the hard working family who toiled away finding the perfect tree from which to shave the wood and perfect rock sharpen over days by the families children to create the spear head…
July 8th, 2008 at 4:01 PM
How come nobody can explain in their own words what VORP means and how you arrive at it? You’re not really relying 100% on a statistic that you don’t totally understand, are you?
It’s already been spelled out twice above.
July 8th, 2008 at 4:03 PM
clown- because of things like defensive positioning
Mike- VORP, as I’m sure someone up above said, too lazy to look, stands for value over replacement player, and an entire team of replacement level players would win give or take 30 games, and VORP measures how much a player is better than a “replacement” level guy. So for example a 10 VORP means he is 10 runs better. I don’t like VORP much because it’s partially dependent on playing time, personally I think EqA is the best, but that’s a whole nother topic.
July 8th, 2008 at 4:04 PM
ken…batting average is one I tend to agree on but OBP doesn’t tell the whole story either….to tell me Adam Dunn is a better hitter than David Wright would be wrong…possibly a better batter for getting on base more but not a hitter..all of these stats are imprecise and need all the other stats to analyze them..so to discount older stats for being imprecise is silly since you use them to generate your new stats…
July 8th, 2008 at 4:05 PM
re: batting average and luck – look up BABIP and its related consequences – it will take a while to explain it myself. one easy thing to realize is that errors are judgement calls and thus subjective. all crash davis’ speech in bull durham does a pretty good job summarizing the consequences.
for VROP: Value Over Replacement Player. The number of runs contributed beyond what a replacement-level player at the same position would contribute if given the same percentage of team plate appearances. VORP scores do not consider the quality of a player’s defense.
sorry i was so slow and cutting pasting from bp. the exact formula is proprietary info but if you still dont understand it feel free to check it out the wiki.
irish – i did – they arguing that it is a bad metric for evaluating all star talent but no one is saying driving in runs in baseball isnt important. thats just silly.
July 8th, 2008 at 4:06 PM
This is incorrect. RBI is meaningless when debate the merits of two specific players performance so far on the season in this case Hamilton and Drew. It would be meaningful if I wanted to get a quick gauge on players (plural) having a good season…I could check out who is top 10 in rbi…
July 8th, 2008 at 4:06 PM
I hate stats. I like games. Tell me how often you get on base. That’s it. You get on base (which is the whole point of the game. Get on base and move to the home base) and you’ve pretty much done your job. There is luck involved. Lets just all agree that people who get on base are cooler than those who don’t.
July 8th, 2008 at 4:07 PM
It’s not discounting old stats. It’s building on them.
July 8th, 2008 at 4:07 PM
Ok Mike,
In essence this is how it works. You first have to calculate the average runs per out for the league (AL or NL not MLB). Outs including things like sac flies, caught stealings, etc. Then you set what is replacement level production. This is accepted as somewhere around 80% of league average. It technically varies, replacement level for catchers is figured to be 75% while DH’s and 1st basemen are at 85%. This is just due to combination of defensive difficulty and expected offensive output. Y’know a guy like Jim Thome. That guy can’t field worth a damn, but he can rake, let’s put him at 1B/DH.
Then to calculate an actual players VORP this is what you do. Multiply the league’s average runs per out by the player’s total outs. This provides the number of runs an average player would have produced given that certain number of outs to work with. Then go ahead and multiply that number (of runs) by .8, or whatever percentage of average the replacement level is fixed at; the result is the number of runs you could expect a “replacement player” to put up with that number of outs. Then subtract the replacement’s runs created from the player’s actual runs created, and the result is VORP.
Badabing badaboom…the reason people were dodging your question is that A.) Most people don’t take the time to figure out how to calculate it (can you blame them?) B.) Those that do know how couldn’t be bothered typing it all out (again, can you blame them?)
Hope that all makes sense
July 8th, 2008 at 4:09 PM
SM…tell me where I said the new stats weren’t useful..I use them..but I am also not so arrogant to discount benchmark measurements that have been used for 100 years…I am not going to war..I am analyzing a ballplayer..and when me and Grandpa have a baseball conversation (god rest his soul) I don’t think he was looking at Sheehan’s last article in Baseball prospectus to determine if a ballplayer was good or not. You are trying to discount my knowledge and fandom of the game by telling me I can’t use this and I can’t use that. It is not the case. it is snobbery and it is bullshit.
July 8th, 2008 at 4:09 PM
200 baseball post!!!!!!!!!!!
July 8th, 2008 at 4:10 PM
ill…TADA!!!thanks for making my point..you get it..others here don’t
July 8th, 2008 at 4:10 PM
ask any GM if some statistics are more important than others (for objectively analyzing talent) and they will tell you the same thing.
no metric completely takes out luck but some do a heck of a better job than others.
and i think i see what youre saying with david wright being a better hitter than dunn, no matter what the stats say, which i think i agree with, but the answer to the question ‘who is more valuable to the team’ may have a different answer and can more precisely ascertained.
of course the different stats will most likley never settle any of this debates for good, but an argument for one player over another is going to be be stonger using advanced metrics over less valuable ones.
July 8th, 2008 at 4:14 PM
No one really thinks Dunn is a better offensive player than Wright, especially when factoring in baseball players.
We just think David Wright is a homosexual.
July 8th, 2008 at 4:14 PM
Thanks, Jeeves. That sounds exhausting.
July 8th, 2008 at 4:15 PM
meant to say “when factoring in baserunning.”
/Wright still ghey.
July 8th, 2008 at 4:15 PM
ken…your point makes total sense for a different argument…the point of all of this was can we look at RBIs to determine an all-star player and compare players…the point, which I keep making is…it boils down to using them as a barometer ..which we the common fan do…I certainly hope Omar Minaya uses every available tool…but these new stats are Contrived as well…VORP is already being dismissed in some circles as not an accurate tool…all stats have good points and flaws…
July 8th, 2008 at 4:16 PM
Mike: How is it any less complex than passer rating for QBs?
July 8th, 2008 at 4:16 PM
RWH – i hope you dont think im questioning your fandom – nor do i am to imply that you shouldnt discuss baseball with whomever and however you want. as a final point, i have to insist, however, that some stats are better for measuring objective talent and value than others. it only logically follows that we would have better tools to this now than we would before the microchip was invented.
but regardless, cheers to debating baseball. i think its time to pre-game for my buddies gig tonight. go mets.
July 8th, 2008 at 4:17 PM
I am not discounting you knowledge of baseball just like I am not discounting the ‘value’ of ‘old stats’ like RBI. Hell, I love rbi’s but someone the straw man arguement against hating the old stats (or old people?) is an easy path to take than objectiely looking at the merits and usefulness of stats in certain situaions, discussions, bantering, etc
In the context of a very specific discussion (this case Hamilton vs Drew this season) the rbi stat IS meaningless. Think about how the RBI stat is derived and I would think it would make more sense to compare players in an apples vs apples comparision how each did with men in scoring position…We have stats that make these across the board comparisions easier…
July 8th, 2008 at 4:17 PM
Hef…don’t go soil a good honest baseball discussion with the worst most inaccurate measurement of performance in sports..please..just please…I have to call Mengele now my chest hurts
July 8th, 2008 at 4:17 PM
Roman, we get it. But some of these benchmarks are team stats and not individual stats. RBI is a team stat; wins (for pitchers) is a product of a good team. Thus, they have their place but are not good indicators of individual success.
July 8th, 2008 at 4:18 PM
why is this still going on?
and Hef, nobody who knows anything about football thinks passer rating is a good barometer for how good a QB is. hell, david garrard was being praised as a good NFL qb because of his rating despite the fact he maybe threw 2 passes farther than 20 yards the whole season.
July 8th, 2008 at 4:19 PM
ken…your were never the one I felt questioned it…drink a Newcastle or something fancy for me
July 8th, 2008 at 4:19 PM
all stats have good points and flaws…
Except for these stats.
July 8th, 2008 at 4:22 PM
Hef…wins more a team stat than RBI but isn’t every stat predicated on the ability of others…for an individual sport, most of it boils down to the human element of the opponent and your team…that said..I still can’t believe you brought up QB Rating
July 8th, 2008 at 4:22 PM
I will now go drive home using my map and slide rule…My gps is broken…
July 8th, 2008 at 4:22 PM
ill..+jew star
July 8th, 2008 at 4:22 PM
I don’t know a single NFL fan who uses this as a legit metric.
July 8th, 2008 at 4:23 PM
SM..a real man needs no GPS…you just need to drive around aimlessly until you find a road you know
July 8th, 2008 at 4:23 PM
@ all..The arguement started because it was said that JD Drew should start over Hamilton. Myself, and others agrued that is ludacris, one of the factors is RBI. This is not the only factor, but should be considered nonetheless.
As for QB rating. Everyone knows its awesome. I had a perfect passer rating in Madded 27-28 for 7 TDs and 630+ yards…Holla!
July 8th, 2008 at 4:24 PM
And don’t forget, under NO circumstances do you stop and ask for directions.
July 8th, 2008 at 4:26 PM
I pride myself on never having used a GPS. That’s more pussyfying of America right there.
July 8th, 2008 at 4:28 PM
where I’m from half the time gps doesn’t work, and doesn’t know the roads anyway. We just point the steer in the right direction and when we see a gas station we ask the good ole’ boy how ta get to da ole summerhill ranch.
July 8th, 2008 at 4:29 PM
See, I didn’t know that and am willing to admit when I am wrong. Die eagles should do the same.
July 8th, 2008 at 4:30 PM
Tell that to every announcer, the.
July 8th, 2008 at 4:39 PM
i just skimmed this … lol
lol
lol
save it, there’s another baseball post (ripped from this one) at 530. i hope everyone’s not too spent!
July 8th, 2008 at 4:43 PM
GPS’ are the shit.
July 8th, 2008 at 4:57 PM
Okay, so who won? Let’s go to the scorecards. RWH had a nice few jabs in the late rounds after starting slow, but was it enough to overcome the early-round success of Jeeves and ill? Tough call.
I have it scored as a KO 145-140. Ah, but I’m not saying who won.
July 9th, 2008 at 5:13 AM
The stats show that he has been excellent over the last 10 games with .45 obp and .888 ops
Delgado might take issue to your statement though that you think scrappy guys are more important than his slugging and *rbis*