The Brewers Rotation vs. the Cubs Rotation
Baseball July 9th. 2008, 12:45pm
Last night’s puzzling – that word applies; everyone’s still trying to figure out what the magician Billy Beane sees in those four guys – deal between the Chicago and Oakland sets up an interesting NL Central battle between two long-suffering franchises. As it always does in the postseason, pitching will be the deciding factor. So who possesses the better rotation: the Brewers (last World Series appearance: 1982) or the Cubs (last World Series appearance: 1945)? Intern Bill compares the two.
Cubs Carlos Zambrano (2.96 ERA, 112.3 IP, 38BB, 73K, ERA+ 151) vs. Brewers Ben Sheets (2.77 ERA, 117 IP, 26BB, 97K, ERA+ 155): Sheets has been striking out batters at a higher rate, but their ERA’s are comparable. But let’s be straight, here – would you rather have the pitcher with yearly arm injuries, or the guy who’s up playing a little too much Guitar Hero? And when Sheets’ arm flies into the stands in the near future, will a fan get to keep it?
Cubs Ryan Dempster (3.13 ERA, 118 IP, 47BB, 98K, ERA+ 143) vs. Brewers CC Sabathia (3.79 ERA, 128.3 IP, 29 BB, 128 K, ERA+ 110): The best part about the CC Sabathia trade? Now with the big man in the midst of a playoff race, the fat jokes will never end! Dempster is having a better year, but you’ve got to love the over 4:1 K/BB rate on the big man.
Cubs Rich Harden (2.34 ERA, 77 IP, 31BB, 92K, ERA+ 162) vs. Brewers Manny Parra (3.65 ERA, 93.7 IP, 49 BB, 72 K’s, ERA+ of 118): Here are a couple of guys who have scuffled with injuries and have electric stuff. Parra has given up quite a bit more hits and walks than Harden, so we’ll give the edge to the newest Cub. Also, is an 89 innings jump normal for a 19-year-old? Think that might be the cause of some of the injuries? Just throwing that out there.
Cubs Ted Lilly (4.47 ERA, 112.7 IP, 39BB, 105K, ERA+ 100) vs. Brewers David Bush (4.74 ERA, 98.7 IP, 26BB, 53K, ERA+ 91): Ted Lilly is about as average as average can get, but the strikeouts and left-handedness give him the edge over a below average and perpetual fantasy sleeper David Bush.
Cubs Jason Marquis (4.78 ERA, 92.3 IP, 37BB, 49K, ERA+ 94) vs. Brewers Jeff Suppan (4.71 ERA, 101.3 IP, 44BB, 55K, ERA+ 91): Two former Cardinals, both who previously pitched well in the postseason and immediately given terrible contracts. Who else thought those signings would turn out badly? Ah, everyone? Marquis gets the edge here because he’s better, costs less, and he’s not Jeff Suppan.
The Cubs were the better team before the Sabathia trade, they were the better team after the Sabathia trade. As theorized by Yahoo!’s Inside Edge, Lou Pinella had the better rotation regardless of who the Cubs chose to bring in. With the best offense and pitching in the national league, and barring an always-possible-in-Chicago end-of-the-season collapse, expect the Cubs to play in this year’s fall classic.
69 Responses to “The Brewers Rotation vs. the Cubs Rotation”
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July 9th, 2008 at 12:47 PM
the only guy whom i respect that has been positive about what the A’s got is rob neyer.. its subscription only, but the basis of his post was that the a’s retooled for the playoff stretch by getting 3 guys who are major league ready.. also said that there was a decent chance gallagher would outpitch harden in the next 3-5 yrs in the same way haren outpitched mulder
July 9th, 2008 at 12:49 PM
give me the whitesox rotation any day
*ducks*
July 9th, 2008 at 12:51 PM
I’m not sure how long Marquis will stay in the fifth spot for the Cubs. Marshall may end up getting the nod. He had a nice outing against the Cards this past weekend. Not that one start makes up for all the others, but he could end up being less shitty than Marquis.
Always fun when you’re justifying a starter by saying he sucks, but not as badly as the other guy on the team.
July 9th, 2008 at 12:51 PM
Cubs.
July 9th, 2008 at 12:56 PM
ha, agree with you moleman!
I agree with you intern Bill save for Sabathia. He has been unbelievable since his poor start. I know I’m messing with sample sizes here by doing this, but since it’s a consecutive streak to start the season, I think it’s still and apt bit of data. Anyway, if you take out CC’s horrendous first 4 starts, where his ERA peaked at 13.50, his ERA for the season is an astounding 2.20 and a 1.04 WHIP. I have then give the advantage to Capatain Cheeseburger moving forward
July 9th, 2008 at 12:58 PM
The point being missed by the Sabathia trade is not the NL Central but the Wild Card…the Brewers and the Cubs (and possibly the Cards but I don’t see it) will be 92-95 win teams…the East and West will get their winner with 90. I still like the Sabathia trade for the Brewers. Just get to the Playoffs and see what happens.
July 9th, 2008 at 12:59 PM
I should say the East and West with 90 or less.
July 9th, 2008 at 12:59 PM
I’m about as big a Cubs fan as you can get, and even I wouldn’t pick Dempster over CC. Dempster’s poor to very poor against lefties. He sucks away from Wrigley. And he walked in a run last night with two outs (against the Reds).
July 9th, 2008 at 1:00 PM
I think a lot is going to come down to the health of these guys, with the exception of I think Lilly, all have spent significant time on the DL in their careers.
July 9th, 2008 at 1:01 PM
if CC doesnt sign with the brewers, where is he most likely to end up? new york?
July 9th, 2008 at 1:02 PM
CC just cant avoid that Dessert Line at the all you can eat joints
July 9th, 2008 at 1:02 PM
He is?
Even with CC’s rough few starts, his FIP of 3.24 is way better than Dempster’s (4.08).
July 9th, 2008 at 1:02 PM
Ill tell you what happens….
“Were bringing back Harden on 3 days rest!”
/Cubs Swept
July 9th, 2008 at 1:02 PM
moleman…He will be a Dodger…he is a west coast guy (Bay Area) but I don’t see the Giants or A’s paying him
July 9th, 2008 at 1:03 PM
@Cortes
It looks like even Neyer has backed off that a bit this morning. I think he originally made his argument not with Gallagher’s talents in mind, but rather through the lens of his original idea that Beane was playing for this year.
Christina Karl at the Prospectus actually thought of Gaudin and Gallagher as the wash which really calls into question what the A’s got out of that deal.
July 9th, 2008 at 1:03 PM
Really, Dempster over CC? What the hell is this?
July 9th, 2008 at 1:05 PM
RexyNomo Knows more about baseball then Intern Bill
July 9th, 2008 at 1:07 PM
Why are the A’s conceding this year? Are they taking notes from the White Sox in 96 or whatever year that was?
July 9th, 2008 at 1:07 PM
Intern Bill has been posting with more frequency since Simmons went on vacation…hmm…
July 9th, 2008 at 1:07 PM
Billy Beane is a moron.
July 9th, 2008 at 1:08 PM
Here’s to hoping that Harden goes the way of his A’s predesesors. see Zito, Barry and Mulder, Mark.
July 9th, 2008 at 1:08 PM
Maybe I’m having a reading comprehension problem, but I thought that last line meant that he would prefer CC to Dempster. As he should.
July 9th, 2008 at 1:09 PM
Nice – I love that you cite really sabery stats. I use them for my own analysis, but I tend to not cite them as much as simpler stats when making arguments to avoid arguments like yesterday’s
July 9th, 2008 at 1:13 PM
intern bill: TBL knows more about baseball than you. quit trying please. thanks.
July 9th, 2008 at 1:13 PM
the white flag trade was 97, which actually in the long run ended up being a good trade for the sox. they got howry and foulke for fatass alvarez and co.
July 9th, 2008 at 1:14 PM
@benji – bitter, party of one, your table’s ready!
July 9th, 2008 at 1:15 PM
molemaninthemorning knows more about baseball than intern bill
BURN!
July 9th, 2008 at 1:15 PM
Parra had a fluke injury getting his thumb broken on a bunt. i’d hardly call that “scuffled with injuries”. wrong again.
July 9th, 2008 at 1:18 PM
I love how this just turned into a two team division. Cards fans mine as well pack it in I guess.
/sarcasm
July 9th, 2008 at 1:19 PM
That nice up above should red Nick
July 9th, 2008 at 1:19 PM
NWilson, my thoughts exactly.
July 9th, 2008 at 1:19 PM
damn Benji. give the dude some credit.
July 9th, 2008 at 1:20 PM
today’s just not my day…should read Nick
July 9th, 2008 at 1:21 PM
jeeves no function beer well without
July 9th, 2008 at 1:23 PM
you could expect to see him in dodger blue or with the angels–he is a california boy, wanted to go back close to home
July 9th, 2008 at 1:23 PM
Geez Benji, a little harsh, eh? Intern Bill has done way worse than this in the past.
/Backhanded compliment of the day
July 9th, 2008 at 1:23 PM
Did anyone already say that intern Bill sucks? Then I’m not needed here.
July 9th, 2008 at 1:25 PM
This is true, but it’s past noon, so all my problems should be solved
/alcoholism
July 9th, 2008 at 1:27 PM
the best part of an intern bill post are all the comments slamming his post
July 9th, 2008 at 1:28 PM
who is this intern bill guy? is he a ghost like Imig?
July 9th, 2008 at 1:29 PM
Thou shalt never speak ill of L. Ron Beane.
Book of Vorpies 42:7, Bill James Version
July 9th, 2008 at 1:30 PM
@irish – it can’t be Imig’s ghost, this is a post about the Cubs. Imig’s ghost would NEVER write anything good about the Cubs.
July 9th, 2008 at 1:31 PM
i have never seen Imig comment on anything. At least CRM comments about nothing
July 9th, 2008 at 1:32 PM
Does CC Sabathia even remove his pants when he takes a dump? I feel like he just craps in his pants.
July 9th, 2008 at 1:33 PM
Does Intern Bill ever reply to any comments? Why do I feel Intern Bill is really TBL just posting asinine things under a different name?
Why would you compare Dempster and Sabathia and not Harden and Sabathia? that makes no sense to me.
July 9th, 2008 at 1:33 PM
nope, he has a zipper on the back
July 9th, 2008 at 1:34 PM
TBL loses control of his bowels all the time when he’s leg pressing a small semi.
July 9th, 2008 at 1:35 PM
CC sent ESPN his text message while he was on the shitter.
July 9th, 2008 at 1:36 PM
Intern Bill, show yourself!
July 9th, 2008 at 1:40 PM
Intern Bill = Jay Mariotti
July 9th, 2008 at 1:41 PM
fetch, Twinkies interested in dealing for Beltre.
July 9th, 2008 at 1:42 PM
What a sad state of affairs it is. That would be like me trying to “write” for a baseball blog. Ponderous, man. Simply ponderous.
July 9th, 2008 at 1:43 PM
Nick, kill me now. Although knowing the Mariners front office I’m sure he would come on the cheap. I guarantee they don’t make a move though.
July 9th, 2008 at 1:44 PM
What’s wrong with Beltre?
July 9th, 2008 at 1:46 PM
Well he’s making 12 million dollars for 1, although next year is his contract year so maybe he’d have another 40 homer season. If it lets Joe Mauer hit leadoff I’m all for it I guess.
July 9th, 2008 at 1:46 PM
Beltre sucks and he’s overpriced.
July 9th, 2008 at 1:46 PM
$12M ain’t bad.
July 9th, 2008 at 1:47 PM
The 12 mil he’s owed next year, I suppose
July 9th, 2008 at 1:52 PM
Im not gonna be bias because Im a White Sox fan so Im gonna say it. Cubs starting rotation is the best in the league. Then you have Gaudin, Cotts(on the come up), Marmol, and Wood.Im not counting Howry(Sux). They very hard to beat. Its just a matter of time untill they fuck it all up.
July 9th, 2008 at 1:52 PM
$12M isn’t that much for a guy who plays an excellent defensive 3rd base. His offensive numbers look pretty bad, but realize he plays in a homepark that destroys right handed batters. To even be an above average hitter (which he is, slightly) in that type of environment says a lot.
July 9th, 2008 at 1:53 PM
Home OPS .694
Road OPS .840
July 9th, 2008 at 1:53 PM
I’ll hold my opinion until I see what they’d have to give up.
July 9th, 2008 at 1:59 PM
I agree that 12 million isn’t that much for a Beltre, especially in this days market, but adjusting for the size of the Twins payroll, and it seems like it may be beyond the type of money that they would like to spend. Unless the Mariners kick in cash, it will ruin the Twins’ flexibility for any moves they want to pull next season.
Plus, if the Twins organization thinks that their current 3rdbaseman, Buscher can maintain stats anywhere near his current level (I have my doubts, but it’s something to throw into the equation) then the offensive bump from the acqusition of Beltre just wouldn’t be worth the additional salary.
In a vacuum, I would take Beltre if I’m the Twins assuming the Mariners don’t ask the world for him, but under their financial constraints, I would have to think long and hard about it
July 9th, 2008 at 2:00 PM
though I prob would lead towards doing it, if the Twins think they can make the playoffs this year
July 9th, 2008 at 2:02 PM
I don’t think the Twins are going to really need to make any moves next season. Punto will be gone, hopefully Casilla will be at short, I don’t really see any pressing needs to bring anybody else in off the top of my head.
July 9th, 2008 at 2:26 PM
@Fetch
You a Twin fan? How do you feel, at this point, about the decision to trade Santana? I just wonder where they would be with Santana and a replacement level CF rather than Hernandez and Gomez. Buyers for sure I think. As a fan, does the extra value they extracted from Santana over the two draft picks they would have gotten for letting him walk outweigh the chance to have been real contenders this year?
My theory is that small market teams that practice the sell as opposed to getting every last day out of their studs end up putting htemselves in a vicious cycle of never being quite good enough
July 9th, 2008 at 2:32 PM
That’s a good point Maxwell, but with the 2 picks they’d get for Santana I’m sure they’d take guys who they’d pay about 1 million under slot for. I think Gomez has tons of potential, but if they had Span and Santana that certainly would be better than Gomez and Livan for this year, but I guess I didn’t expect them to be even close to first at the ASB. I guess what I’m trying to say is at the end of this year I’ll be a little disappointed they didn’t go for it, but in 5 years I’ll be glad they didnt.
July 9th, 2008 at 3:12 PM
I agree that five years from now will be the tell and I do hope you are right. I just think that sometimes these teams keep rolling their assets and never get to that critical point because guys are maturing in a staggard process (A’s being the perfect example. Mulder into Haren into Eveland, but still no closer to having a championship squad then when they first traded Hudson.) They keep themselves good enough to be consistently competitive, but never good enough to win the whole thing. Three years from now when the fruits of Santana are in full stride, will Mauer, Liriano, or Baker still be there and productive, or will they have been turned into new young guys who aren’t quite ready yet for prime time?
July 9th, 2008 at 3:24 PM
dumpstar over sabathia? oh thats rich.
maybe you can argue so far this year dempster has gotten better results, but no manager in the world would send demspter out for a game 7 if sabathia was also available. even the shitty ones.