NFL: Projecting the AFC West
NFL August 7th. 2008, 12:15pm
Remember when this division was actually good? Seems like forever ago. Previously: AFC East, North, South. We’ll do the NFC next week.
San Diego – Anyone want to find a flaw? Norv Turner is the obvious question mark, but after that, we got nothing. Not only can the Chargers look forward to a full season of Vincent Jackson and Chris Chambers at WR, but also LSU RB Jacob Hester, a 3rd round pick we love. He and Sproles should lighten the load on LT, hopefully keeping him fresh for the postseason. The road game against New Orleans should be interesting; we’re eager for the shootout in Pittsburgh. SD gets the Colts and Patriots at home, and could win both. Thinking 13-3.
Denver - The schedule is pretty unforgiving early – though they do get New Orleans and Jacksonville at home – and we’re just not feeling their skill players (no Marshall for three games, mostly unproven Selvin Young at RB, and a supposedly studly linebacking group that was a mess last year). Three years with no playoffs should put Shanahan on the hot seat. Would be stunned if this team finished better than 8-8.
Oakland – Like the young RBs – Darren McFadden, Michael Bush and Justin Fargas – but we have zero confidence in their QBs, WRs or O-line. This may sound strange, but we actually feel the defense, individually, isn’t terrible. And yes, we realize they were the second worst team against the rush last year and had the fifth fewest sacks in the league. DeAngelo Hall will change all that! Kidding. Guessing 6-10.
Kansas City - If Herman Edwards can survive this season, the future is promising. Here’s the plan – get the young kids lots of burn, limit LJ to 300 carries (Jamaal Charles will gladly handle the rest), lose a ton of games, and get yourself in position to draft … oh, man, are the best QBs in next year’s draft Matthew Stafford and Tim Tebow? Bummer. The Jared Allen loss will be brutal to the defense, but here’s a bold prediction: In 2009, if the Chiefs can get a good QB, they’ll be a fringe playoff contender. This year, five wins at best, but we’ll predict 4-12.
103 Responses to “NFL: Projecting the AFC West”
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August 7th, 2008 at 12:16 PM
San Diego 12-4
Denver 9-7
Kansas City 5-11
Oakland 4-12
San Diego is the only one to make the playoffs.
August 7th, 2008 at 12:18 PM
Easiest bet of the season: KC Under 6 Wins.
August 7th, 2008 at 12:18 PM
Mort is predicting the Jets to win 10 plus games and possibly challenge the Pats for the division.
August 7th, 2008 at 12:19 PM
Mort is insane.
August 7th, 2008 at 12:19 PM
@jb49ers – LOLS!
August 7th, 2008 at 12:20 PM
Fouts is good but San Diego’s defense isn’t: 6-10
KC still reeling from Joe Delaney’s death: 6-10
Tom Jackson leading the Bronco D?? he’s good, the rest is not: 6-10
Plunkett is healthy and the Raiders look poised 16-0
August 7th, 2008 at 12:20 PM
SD: 12-4
Den: 6-10
OAK: 4-12
KC: 2-14
August 7th, 2008 at 12:24 PM
first!
August 7th, 2008 at 12:26 PM
Everybody knows this is San Diego’s division to lose. 12-4
Raiders have a nice stable of backs, to keep the pressure off of their young quarterback. 6-10
Denver will be average.7-9
K.C. will suck.4-12
August 7th, 2008 at 12:29 PM
“Fouts is good but San Diego’s defense isn’t: 6-10
KC still reeling from Joe Delaney’s death: 6-10
Tom Jackson leading the Bronco D?? he’s good, the rest is not: 6-10
Plunkett is healthy and the Raiders look poised 16-0″
Sounds about right.
Someone please find me four wins on KC’s schedule. No QB, no oline, washed up RB, one receiver.
August 7th, 2008 at 12:30 PM
Brodie Croyle = savior
Chargers 12-4
Raiders 8-8
Chiefs 7-9
Broncos 6-10
August 7th, 2008 at 12:31 PM
Herm will kill the Chiefs forever with horrid offisive game plans.
A healthy San Diego makes this division a no brainer.
August 7th, 2008 at 12:32 PM
KC, home against Oakland, home against Buffalo, home against Miami, at Atlanta
August 7th, 2008 at 12:36 PM
KC Chiefs: 2-14
The Hunt’s still make money, so everyone goes home pleased with Carl Peterson’s “5 year plan,” now in its second decade.
NFL franchises just make too much money to incentivize winning.
August 7th, 2008 at 12:41 PM
CBH -
I could see two wins out of that.
Chief fans are fairweather. About the middle of October, Camarohead will be half-empty, thus negating the home-field advantage they enjoyed in their mediocre years.
August 7th, 2008 at 12:41 PM
QB who’s going to get way more crap than they deserve this year: Jay Cutler
August 7th, 2008 at 12:41 PM
Does LJ even crack the top 5 RB rankings? I definitely wouldn’t take him in the first round if I had a pick in the 1-6 range.
August 7th, 2008 at 12:41 PM
edit: he > they
August 7th, 2008 at 12:46 PM
The only prediction I have is that Herm Edwards will mismanage the clock.
August 7th, 2008 at 12:46 PM
I like San Diego and their trash talking QB
August 7th, 2008 at 12:49 PM
Anyone else catching Hannah Storm on ESPN News right now? The first I have see her in a few years but has she been working?….seems rusty…. Whenever someone talks in her ear she completely freezes up….and for some reason every time a golf leaderboard comes up on the screen she flubs it.
August 7th, 2008 at 12:49 PM
BUT… What about Favre’s impact on THIS division.. All Favre all the time.
August 7th, 2008 at 12:50 PM
Dammit everytime there’s a new post everyone flocks to it and forgets the last topic…
I’d like San Diego if LT wasn’t such a whiny bitch bc Philip Rivers is a cocky motherfucker but he can back it up when he needs to.
August 7th, 2008 at 12:53 PM
San Diego and their whiny douchebag of a QB
/fixed…
Rivers’ habit of sailing passes and letting them hang in the air too long will result in more picks moving forward…
August 7th, 2008 at 12:53 PM
LJ doesn’t even crack the Top 15 amongst RBs. Injured + overworked + terrible OL + no QB + playing from behind = stay away.
August 7th, 2008 at 12:54 PM
Philip Rivers can back up his trash talking?! Wha?
August 7th, 2008 at 12:54 PM
Im taking James Brooks in the first round
August 7th, 2008 at 12:55 PM
You kind of suck now, but my dad says you can be good someday.
August 7th, 2008 at 12:57 PM
South Park.
If Vince Young is the QB who just wins, is Jay Cutler the QB who just loses?
August 7th, 2008 at 12:57 PM
I totally agree. I wish I had SI’s fantasy preview issue with me today. I think they had LJ in the middle of the top 10.
Speaking of fantasy RBs, what’s going on with Steven Jackson? Is he still a hold out? And have the Rams made ANY improvement to their O-Line? I feel like he’s gonna suck again this year.
August 7th, 2008 at 12:58 PM
Hey just so I can get on the train. This 6 game prediction. Is this by betus.com? Please say it is so. I’ll jump on the under.
August 7th, 2008 at 12:59 PM
USA Today in its overall rankings had LJ going ahead of Peyton Manning. That’s retarded.
August 7th, 2008 at 1:01 PM
all depends on the scoring. those rankings are useless in some leagues.
August 7th, 2008 at 1:01 PM
is Jay Cutler the QB who just loses?
I say no, but it’s a fair question, no doubt.
August 7th, 2008 at 1:01 PM
@ cbh—
probably, but it really just depends on how the scoring in your league is done.
August 7th, 2008 at 1:01 PM
I didn’t even know SI did fantasy previews. Rotoworld is the place to go.
I have a man-crush on SJax. Pace is back (and old), and Bulger is healthy and winging it around, I still think Jackson stays in the Top 4. He’ll report, contract or no contract (but they should give it to him.)
August 7th, 2008 at 1:03 PM
@ nwilson: I saw KC’s line at Bodog.
August 7th, 2008 at 1:03 PM
kansas city: the only thing good about brodie croyle is his wife. and if kansas city (or any other team) blows a high-first round draft pick on tim tebow, the gm needs to be drug tested.
someone please name a spread-option college quarterback that is worth a shit? alex smith is brutal. vince young has shown some promise. michael robinson was quickly moved to wide receiver.
tim tebow in the nfl = todd blackledge.
August 7th, 2008 at 1:03 PM
Jay Cutler hates leading drives that lead to TDs.. look it up
/science
August 7th, 2008 at 1:04 PM
so what is up with the fantasy football leagues?
I want in on one with TBL commenters
August 7th, 2008 at 1:07 PM
True. But the kicker booted a 68 yarder with room to spare. Hello 30 yard scoring drives.
August 7th, 2008 at 1:08 PM
@August – can’t remember if we’ve talked about this before or not. in spite your Vandy homerisms, would you still have taken VY over Cutler for the Titans in the draft back then? what about now knowing how they’ve both performed so far?
August 7th, 2008 at 1:08 PM
tim tebow in the nfl = todd blackledge
Anyone else curious about what Todd’s been eating this whole offseason!?
August 7th, 2008 at 1:10 PM
so what is up with the fantasy football leagues?
I want in on one with TBL commenters
me too
August 7th, 2008 at 1:11 PM
that question doesn’t read well. clarification: would you have taken VY back then? would you rather have Cutler now?
August 7th, 2008 at 1:12 PM
Jay Cutler hates his receivers, but on the upside he may like his new head coach in 2009.
So long Shanny.
August 7th, 2008 at 1:13 PM
I have LT on my keeper squad and realize his days are numbered and his value will probably only decrease from this point forward…..trying to move him for a WR now….just got offered Houshmanzada AND Cotchery….thoughts?
Housh is in a contract year coming off 1,100 + 12 tds and Cotch just had 82 grabs, 1,100 yds and only 2 tds……
Obviously I’d love a Braylan or Wayne or something but those guys aren’t getting moved right now…..it’s a keeper league so people hang onto top WR’s like they are gold
August 7th, 2008 at 1:13 PM
Don’t trade Tomlinson.
August 7th, 2008 at 1:14 PM
@ miz: it broke a signifigant piece of my heart when they took VY over Jay, but as of today I’d almost have to say it’s a wash… Jay has had better weapons at TE and WR so far (that’s an indictment of the Titans, not a compliment to the Broncos), but VY has thrown that offense on his back and drug them to wins that he doesn’t get credit for, and he came out earlier…
One small Vandy note: did you see who topped Stuart Mandel of SI.com’s list of most underrated CFB coaches?
August 7th, 2008 at 1:15 PM
Don’t do it.
August 7th, 2008 at 1:15 PM
As I posted on Sparty’s site…I think the Chiefs will be a lot better than everyone thinks..their schedule is really easy and there is more talent there than is given credit. I have them 10-6. Read my post for further explanation. The Chargers will be 12-4 or better but why is no one talking about Philip Rivers ACL surgery? That is going to be way more of a factor than anyone thinks.
August 7th, 2008 at 1:16 PM
nice/funny pic of Kim K’s McDouble D’s, SFW
August 7th, 2008 at 1:18 PM
housh is a great reciever to have, but I dont think I would trade LT for him
August 7th, 2008 at 1:19 PM
Roman, 10-6 for the Chefs????!?!?!?!??!
August 7th, 2008 at 1:22 PM
RE: LT talk
I agree that it isn’t a winning move for this year but remember, this is a keeper league….LT has already hinted he might be done after this year and even if he doesn’t retire, his numbers should start going down very soon….at the first sign of that his trade value is in the garbage
August 7th, 2008 at 1:22 PM
Did you say VY has put them on his back and won games he didn’t get credit for? Seriously?
August 7th, 2008 at 1:23 PM
CBH..why not…every year a team comes out of nowhere..they have talent on both sides of the ball and their schedule looks like cake…it is possible…I think the Broncos are the worst team in the division
August 7th, 2008 at 1:27 PM
@ JEFFaJAX: people forget how clutch he was 2 years ago, and that he still had 5 games of 95+ QB rating last year… we were a 5 win team before he got here, and we’ve been a playoff contender ever since.
He didn’t win ROY due to charity.
August 7th, 2008 at 1:28 PM
Spidey, sounds like your mind is made up.
August 7th, 2008 at 1:30 PM
Spidey, it’s not like you’re getting Fitz and Santonio Holmes (two young, emerging players) in return. Housh is no spring chicken and Cotchery is solid but not spectacular.
Keep the best player this year, then target WRs in your draft. (see: Anthony Gonzalez.)
August 7th, 2008 at 1:32 PM
Mike, you should link Tampa Bo to that Onion article you posted yesterday.
August 7th, 2008 at 1:32 PM
@August – I can’t read SI stuff at work, I get blocked with “Reason for restriction: Forbidden Category ‘Intimate Apparel/Swimsuit’.” I assume it’s Bobby Johnson and I have no qualms with ol’ BJ being named the most underrated coach. I actually agree with that. he doesn’t have a lot to work with every year, there’s no real athletic department, and the school won’t budge much, if at all, on entrance standards to open the recruiting to kids with lower high school academic performances. despite all that, he manages to put a competitive team on the field every year in the toughest conference in college football.
now, please excuse me from the table for a minute because I’m going to go throw up for all of that love directed to Vandy.
August 7th, 2008 at 1:33 PM
Dont sleep on Cromartie he is a beast! They might need to make that young man play both ways.
August 7th, 2008 at 1:34 PM
why yes; yes he did. and, he was right.
August 7th, 2008 at 1:34 PM
ha! friggin’ IT nazis.
August 7th, 2008 at 1:36 PM
Re: LT – I think I’ll hold off on the move for now….had to talk it thru
August 7th, 2008 at 1:36 PM
@cbh: What Link?
August 7th, 2008 at 1:37 PM
I’m going to go throw up for all of that love directed to Vandy.
LOL… I’m going to print that out and frame it!
August 7th, 2008 at 1:37 PM
You asked.
http://www.theonion.com/content/news/local_idiot_to_post_comment_on
August 7th, 2008 at 1:39 PM
Tampa Bo, your ACC football comment made me think of it.
August 7th, 2008 at 1:40 PM
@TBL – just wanted to let you know something real quick. Tebow is entering his junior year and he will return to Florida for his senior season and not leave for the NFL. book it/print it/true story/it’s science.
August 7th, 2008 at 1:43 PM
Chargers 14-2
Broncos 3-13
Raiders 3-13
Chiefs 2-14
Although they are A baseball team, the Dodgers will be given the wild card.
August 7th, 2008 at 1:44 PM
@RWH: You lost me here over at SpartyWorld: “I love Herm.” Although I would not complain if your prophecies were realized, but right now, there is an eight game gap in our predictions.
August 7th, 2008 at 1:47 PM
@cbh: What good has ACC football done for NCAA football…nothing.
August 7th, 2008 at 1:49 PM
but miz, just think of how many circumcisions could be provided with his signing bonus! Maybe Tebow will do it for the kids!
August 7th, 2008 at 1:50 PM
i’m going to start a 12-team FFL league on nfl.com. if any TBL’ers want in email kfceater@gmail.com
August 7th, 2008 at 1:51 PM
What does that even mean? What good has the Big 10 done, the Pac 10?
August 7th, 2008 at 1:58 PM
SEC rules the world.
August 7th, 2008 at 1:59 PM
silly August; Tebow doesn’t pay for circumcisions. he performs them himself for free.
August 7th, 2008 at 1:59 PM
Point taken…but how does he not get credit for it? He went to the pro bowl his rookie season and won rookie of the year? Where exactly is VY lacking in the getting credit for winning games department?
August 7th, 2008 at 2:01 PM
It makes so much sense now.
August 7th, 2008 at 2:08 PM
I guess it’s just more of a reaction to the new NFL Fan past time of pissing on VY whenever possible… he definitely gets love from players and coaches.
August 7th, 2008 at 2:10 PM
August, you like Vince, but when I see 9 TD’s and 17 INT’s that screams suck to me.
August 7th, 2008 at 2:13 PM
That did suck, but it wasn’t the whole story… the next 2 years (under ‘Dinger) are really going to tell the story on VY’s career.
August 7th, 2008 at 2:15 PM
I like to shit on Vince but yeah, he still has a lot of time to pan out.
Still would take Cutler over him any day.
August 7th, 2008 at 2:25 PM
After three years Alex Smith has been deemed a failure, so I would say Vince has this year and that’s it.
August 7th, 2008 at 2:40 PM
so I would say Vince has this year and that’s it
what makes you think that? are you really trying to compare Vince Young to Alex Smith
August 7th, 2008 at 2:42 PM
If Alex Smith is already a failure after three years, how would Vince Young be different if he still sucks after three years?
I just don’t get why Young should get tons of years before we judge him but with Smith it’s three years and you suck, you’re a bust. I would say it’s a valid question.
August 7th, 2008 at 2:43 PM
@cbh: VY has accomplished WAAAAAAYYYYY more than Alex Smith already.
August 7th, 2008 at 2:44 PM
He got to a Wild card game and lost. Whoopty fucking do.
Vince Young: 21 TDs, 30 INTS
Alex Smith: 19 TDs, 31 INTS
Pretty comparable, huh?
August 7th, 2008 at 2:47 PM
He got to the Pro Bowl his first year, won ROY, then got to the Wild Card his 2nd… TD/INT ratio isn’t everything if you’re making game-breaking plays when you need them.
August 7th, 2008 at 2:48 PM
Alex Smith is a full year younger than Vince, too.
August 7th, 2008 at 2:48 PM
@august: He wouldn’t need as many game breaking plays if he’d stop giving the ball to the defense early in the game, right?
August 7th, 2008 at 2:49 PM
4679/54.4%/19/31/5.8ypa/30 starts
4745/57.1%/21/30/6.4ypa/28 starts
Smith is actually a year younger, too.
August 7th, 2008 at 2:49 PM
I love it when I’m right.
August 7th, 2008 at 2:50 PM
Alex Smith is a full year younger than Vince, too.
yeah in age. Smith came into the league in ‘05. your shirtless hero came into the league in ‘06
August 7th, 2008 at 2:51 PM
just sayin’, he makes them when we need ‘em.
August 7th, 2008 at 2:53 PM
you can also add almost a 1,000 yards rushing to VY’s stats as well…
August 7th, 2008 at 2:53 PM
And if you really think he was a more productive rookie than Jones-Drew or Colston, then I don’t know what to tell you. He just wasn’t.
August 7th, 2008 at 2:55 PM
Good point. And 10 TDs.
August 7th, 2008 at 2:59 PM
+ π for timeliness, Mike
August 7th, 2008 at 3:10 PM
You can also add a much better defense helping VY get the victories.
August 7th, 2008 at 3:22 PM
Yeah about that D… VY’s rookie year they were a whopping 24th in the league, while last year’s no. 1 defense got us only 2 more wins…
Anything else?