Stat Nerdness: The Precipitous Home Run Drop
Baseball September 30th. 2008, 2:15pm
Quirky Anaheim outfielder Torii Hunter, when asked about the sudden and significant drop in home runs over the last five years, had this to say:
“I think the steroid testing has something to do with it,” he said. “If there were any guys who were taking it, they’re not taking it anymore. I’d say it’s a small percentage, but of course it’s going to have an impact.”
Decided to look up the last 10 years, since the Summer of 1998 was the memorable one when heads were buried in the sand, and McGwire and Sosa cheated their way to 70 and 66, respectively.
2008 4876 home runs
2007 4957 home runs
2006 5386 home runs
2005 5017 home runs
2004 5451 home runs
2003 5207 home runs
2002 5059 home runs
2001 5458 home runs
2000 5693 home runs
1999 5528 home runs
1998 5064 home runs
So Sosa and McGwire explode, and then home run totals surge for the next two years. But Tony LaRussa, who still doesn’t think Big Red juiced, might point out how in 2002 and 2005, home run totals dipped. He might even argue that 2006 was just a random year.
26 Responses to “Stat Nerdness: The Precipitous Home Run Drop”
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September 30th, 2008 at 2:17 PM
McGwire had 70 and Sosa had 66 that year.
September 30th, 2008 at 2:18 PM
LaRussa would be too busy boozing to argue
September 30th, 2008 at 2:18 PM
Not denying steroids here, but there are other reasons that HR totals have dropped.
September 30th, 2008 at 2:19 PM
How about a league-wide rise in quality pitching this season…might have played a small part.
September 30th, 2008 at 2:22 PM
that applies only to the AL. the NL’s pitching stats are inflated because of awful quality hitters and getting to face a pitcher 3-4 times per game.
September 30th, 2008 at 2:23 PM
If you read that entire ESPN article they point out how leaders at other statistical categories were at their lowest since 89 or 90.
September 30th, 2008 at 2:26 PM
Steroids do not account for the increase in strikeouts for the Marlins.
September 30th, 2008 at 2:29 PM
Home Runs are the most overrated stat in baseball. Let’s talk about BABIP or OPS.
/MLJed
September 30th, 2008 at 2:30 PM
Roeth, don’t forget BRAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
September 30th, 2008 at 2:32 PM
Another good reason to start in 1998 would be because both leagues added a team.
/science
September 30th, 2008 at 2:33 PM
roeth…dude, HR’s are important as hell.
oh wait, i see what you’re doing there.
/not really
//bong rip
September 30th, 2008 at 2:34 PM
NL homers are actually up this year since they have games played in Philly, Cincy, The Juice, Miller Park and Coors Field.
September 30th, 2008 at 2:35 PM
I also forgot to add because they get to face the Mets and Brewers bullpens as well
September 30th, 2008 at 2:40 PM
The Mets have a bullpen? I was wondering why all those die-hard fans were wearing baseball pants and cleats and got such great seats and got to come in and pitch the 7th, 8th and 9th innnings of every game.
September 30th, 2008 at 2:44 PM
chicks dig bunts
September 30th, 2008 at 2:45 PM
I got to pitch for the O’s a few times after September call ups.
September 30th, 2008 at 2:48 PM
threadjack
mandarich admits to roid use
/threadjack
September 30th, 2008 at 2:48 PM
Can’t trust those Spartans. Someone test Ringer!
September 30th, 2008 at 2:50 PM
test him for what? even if he was roiding, he’s still not as good as beanie wells.
/continue to eat it sparty
September 30th, 2008 at 2:50 PM
Mandarich admits steroid use the same week as Clay Aiken admits he’s gay? What’s next? Kevin Duckworth admits he’s dead?
September 30th, 2008 at 2:51 PM
OJ admits he did it?
/naw…
September 30th, 2008 at 2:55 PM
Tanya Harding admits she knew about it?
I admit Alexei Ramirez isn’t that good?
TBL admits Intern Bill is retarded?
September 30th, 2008 at 3:07 PM
Homers are gay. Let’s talk about BABIP.
September 30th, 2008 at 3:16 PM
Team win totals is an overrated statistic. Let’s use run differential to determine who plays in the World Series.
/serious
September 30th, 2008 at 3:34 PM
Brady Anderson loathes all of you.
September 30th, 2008 at 4:20 PM
C’mon Torii, we all know that white people are to blame for the drop in HR totals. Don’t sugarcoat it.