Jeff Kent’s Probably a Hall of Famer, and Nearly a Statistical Equal to Ryne Sandberg
Baseball January 22nd. 2009, 1:15pm
Jeff Kent retired today, from what will probably be a Hall of Fame career. Pre-sabermetric voters will dig his 355 home runs as a second baseman (most all time) and his nine-year prime where he hit 20 HR each season and had 100 RBI in eight of the nine seasons.
He also has the crucial MVP award, because it’s totally not a circular argument for baseball writers to argue someone is great because baseball writers thought he was great.
Viewing Kent with a little more insight, it’s still difficult to argue against him being the best offensive second baseman of his era with a career 123 OPS+. Weighting on base percentage higher and factoring defense, you might give the edge to Robbie Alomar. But, it’s certainly close.
There was, however, an interesting Kent comparison in Bill Shaikin’s LA Times article, to Ryne Sandberg.
Kent hit 355 home runs as a second baseman, 74 more than Ryne Sandberg, who was elected to the Hall of Fame in 2005. Kent finished his career with a .290 batting average and 377 home runs; Sandberg finished his with a .285 average and 282 home runs. Sandberg, a 10-time All-Star, also won one National League MVP award.
Shaikin’s implication is clear. Kent has better numbers than Sandberg. Sandberg is in the HOF, and, therefore, Kent is hall worthy. However, Shaikin ignores historical context.
No matter our place on the statistical spectrum, we can all agree on this point. Sandberg hit his prime in the late 1980s, a lean offensive era. Kent peaked in the era of juiced balls and balls shriveled by juice. Their raw performance can’t be pitted on a level playing field.
Had Sandberg played in the late 1990s, he would have had better numbers. Conversely, had Kent played in the 1980s it would have dampened his performance a bit. Even if Sandberg and Kent were identical, one would expect Kent to have more home runs.
Adjusted OPS+ addresses this issue, by comparing a player’s performance to the average OPS set at 100. Hitting 30 home runs 20 years ago was different from doing so now. How much better than average a player was should be roughly the same. That stat, though not perfect, should compare across eras palatably, more so than straight raw numbers.
At his peak, Ryne Sandberg had three seasons with an OPS+ of 140 or higher, and three additional seasons above 130 OPS+. Kent had three seasons above 140 OPS+ and two more above 130. Kent may still have been better, but the two players seem far closer than Shaikin’s stats suggest.
49 Responses to “Jeff Kent’s Probably a Hall of Famer, and Nearly a Statistical Equal to Ryne Sandberg”
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January 22nd, 2009 at 1:16 PM
cubs fans will hate that headline. sandberg is god to them.
January 22nd, 2009 at 1:17 PM
At least Ryne Sandberg wasn’t a douche.
January 22nd, 2009 at 1:20 PM
true story.
January 22nd, 2009 at 1:21 PM
+1 pointofattack…
Kent might struggle to get in due to his issues with anyone that isn’t white and a redneck. He is a douche of the highest order.
His numbers are great, to that there is no disagreement. I’m not convinced that he passes the “eyeball” test as to HOF standards. The MVP certainly helps. I guess he got his numbers “sneakily”, meaning that for most of his career he was under the media radar (likely because no one wanted to cover such an ass for anything other than being an ass.).
January 22nd, 2009 at 1:26 PM
Sandberg couldn’t control his bitch.
January 22nd, 2009 at 1:26 PM
His mustache was HOF quality.
January 22nd, 2009 at 1:28 PM
true story.
January 22nd, 2009 at 1:28 PM
Ty Cobb?
January 22nd, 2009 at 1:30 PM
Jeff Bagwell and Craig Biggio should be in the HoF just for putting up with this jerk for 3 years
January 22nd, 2009 at 1:31 PM
Wally’s World makes a great point about Kent being “sneaky”, which is a little unusual since he spent a good deal of his career in either New York, LA or San Fran (which isn’t exactly small-market). One of the first things I think about with the HoF are some questions Bill James posed on the subject years ago. I don’t remember all of them, but a couple were:
1. During his playing career, was he ever considered the best player in the game? With Kent, the answer is obviously no. Despite the MVP, there was a player on his own team that was more highly regarded than him. And there were a handful of others who, in an open draft, would have been chosen before him.
2. During his playing career, was he the ever considered the best player at his position? Again, I’d say no. Alomar was clearly more highly regarded for the beginning of Kent’s career and there always seemed to be other players who were more respected. The only time may have been his MVP season and the year or two thereafter when he might have gotten a stronger argument in his favor.
That’s not to say he shouldn’t make the Hall … those are only a couple of questions in a series James used … but to me, Kent was always one of those, “Oh yeah! Forgot about him” kinda guys. Similar to Don Sutton in many respects. Of course, Sutton is in the Hall so …
January 22nd, 2009 at 1:31 PM
Tampa Bo – not aware of Sandberg’s problems with his “bitch.” Can you give more details?
January 22nd, 2009 at 1:31 PM
Are you really ignoring that he “magically” became good at the age of 29 when he went to San Francisco and met steroid queen Barry Bonds?
Who doesn’t get good until they’re 29? Who peaks at 34? The guy was a utility IF before he met Bonds.
January 22nd, 2009 at 1:33 PM
TSP-His ex-wife is rumored to have slept with former teammates Rafael Palmerio and Dave Martinez while they were married. She was a slut.
January 22nd, 2009 at 1:34 PM
But Kent did hate Bonds, so that’s a plus
January 22nd, 2009 at 1:34 PM
Next year Roberto Alomar and Barry Larkin appear on the ballot. I think that’s going to make for some interesting debates.
January 22nd, 2009 at 1:35 PM
Not a HoF worthy.
January 22nd, 2009 at 1:36 PM
when it comes to hall of fame talk, the first thing i do is the “sniff test.” not once have i ever associated kent with the hall of fame unless he was buying a ticket. i don’t think i’ve ever thought of kent as one of the game’s top players. good, of course. hardly great.
once they past the sniff test them i start looking at the numbers.
after that, i look at the man.
kent fails no. 1 and no. 3. then, as duder678 implies, there’s the — at best — guilt by association.
kent will just have to ride wheelies past coopertown.
January 22nd, 2009 at 1:37 PM
Wow. If anyone listens to Stern, Sandberg sounds like Rich Cronin (guy from LFO) did the other day.
He sounds like he was the chick in his relationship.
January 22nd, 2009 at 1:37 PM
LOL i don’t neccesarily consider being a normal human being a “plus.”
January 22nd, 2009 at 1:39 PM
What is more important, whether someone was the best player at his position? or whether people thought someone was the best player at his position?
January 22nd, 2009 at 1:45 PM
TSP- Thats a little sad you can compare his voice to the guy from LFO.
January 22nd, 2009 at 1:45 PM
Cubs of 80’s and 90’s>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Cubs teams now.
They used to have characters and good role players. Now they are trying to be like the National League Yankees.
Grace smoking cigs and picking up chicks at bars, Sandbergs wife banging half the team. Harry announcing drunk. Those were the days.
January 22nd, 2009 at 1:48 PM
ty cobb’s greatness transcended his douchery. kent’s did not.
January 22nd, 2009 at 1:51 PM
if he wasn’t the best at his position during the prime of his career then he was the 2nd best. And offensively (i know only half the game) he was the best at his position.
/taking this stance so Utley gets in if he continues to hit this well
January 22nd, 2009 at 1:53 PM
who knew jennie l. hewitt was such a complete whack job??? wholesome, innocent, naive sarah reeves, she is not.
NOW we really do know what she did last summer.
January 22nd, 2009 at 1:55 PM
missy.
January 22nd, 2009 at 1:56 PM
no kidding Jimmy. Who knew she was a promise ring buyer who banged a bunch of guys who were not even really that famous.
Those dudes were so enamored by her that they were all getting cheated on and they prob didnt even care.
January 22nd, 2009 at 1:59 PM
She was def Whispering to more than Ghosts back in the day.
/artie lange’d
January 22nd, 2009 at 1:59 PM
to be honest, neither would i.
January 22nd, 2009 at 1:59 PM
not a hall of famer
January 22nd, 2009 at 2:01 PM
he’ll get in on a week class, but I doubt he’s a first ballot HOF’er.
January 22nd, 2009 at 2:03 PM
if this guy gets in santo better get in
January 22nd, 2009 at 2:03 PM
Raffy Palmeiro and Dave Martinez??? Seems like Sandberg’s ex had chorizo fever…
January 22nd, 2009 at 2:03 PM
Jimmy and TSp- Details Please.
January 22nd, 2009 at 2:03 PM
Just so I am on record. Kent is getting in. I agree with reems not on first ballot but he will get in.
January 22nd, 2009 at 2:04 PM
TSP-His ex-wife is rumored to have slept with former teammates Rafael Palmerio and Dave Martinez while they were married. She was a slut.
/probably wishes Kent played w/ the Mets or Marlins. More to pick from
//Clown wants her number
NOT a Hall of Famer
January 22nd, 2009 at 2:05 PM
Kent=Sandberg
//stoopid’d
January 22nd, 2009 at 2:08 PM
Basically Jennifer Love Hewitt went out with this guy from LFO before he was even famous at all. He went out with her for 2 years she bought him a promise ring so he thought everything was cool.
After they break up he finds out that she was seeing other dudes the whole time they were going out and even buying some of them the same promise ring that she bought him. He found this out from a guy who was in 98 degrees who also dated her, got a promise ring from her as well.
She was the dude in all of these relationships and had these guys whipped.
January 22nd, 2009 at 2:09 PM
Just crazy because everyone thinks of her as this innocent chick.
January 22nd, 2009 at 2:10 PM
She also made him use 2 condoms when they fucked for the 1st time.
She obviously does not understand the concept of friction.
January 22nd, 2009 at 2:17 PM
This is wrong.
Two of Kent’s 20-homer seasons were before the age of 29.
Two other seasons (14, 12) before the age of 29 came when he only played 107 and 125 games, respectively. Starting with his age 25 season, he had a 15 (!) year great run with the bat (for a 2B/3B).
January 22nd, 2009 at 2:21 PM
Jeff Kent was never much for small talk. That’s probably why he declined to speak to Lance Berkman that day in the training room.
“Hey, J.K., how’s it going?” Berkman said as Kent walked through the door.
When Kent said nothing, Berkman repeated the greeting. He figured Kent hadn’t heard him. Kent had.
“What is it with you guys?” Kent snapped. “You think I’ve got to walk around saying hello to everyone? I see you every day.”
Story in the houston chronicle today
January 22nd, 2009 at 2:22 PM
This sounds like a plot for a porno.
January 22nd, 2009 at 2:24 PM
from the same beverly hills jeweler no less!
“i used to work at blockbuster. i would put her movies on the shelf and think, ‘wow, this chick is so hot.’ two years later she’s giving me her phone number!”
the funny thing was in order to bang her, he had to fly to los angeles with the dude who was molesting him! LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL!!!
ROTFLMAO!!!
January 22nd, 2009 at 2:28 PM
Wait what?
January 22nd, 2009 at 2:30 PM
Used to watch Top Gun all the time
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xHklGtW3rwU
Hilarious video about the homosexual undertones of Top Gun, NSFW language though.
January 22nd, 2009 at 2:32 PM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=33Wbxh3Xz9c
(im an idiot)
January 22nd, 2009 at 2:59 PM
That dude Cronin told the greatest stories. Who knew? Ha.
January 22nd, 2009 at 4:15 PM
I agree with Nick. There are actually a fair number of guys who peak later, particularly when they play their first season at 25. Not necessarily roids, though I wouldn’t rule it out.