The Detroit Tigers’ 2008 experiment, having the second-highest payroll in baseball, failed dismally as the team won a mere 74 games. Despite having much the same squad as last season, there seems to be an aura of good feelings surrounding the Tigers.

Peter Gammons guaranteed Detroit would not reclaim the AL Central cellar. Mitch “Wild Thing” Williams, now working for MLB network, predicted they would finish first. Free Press writer John Lowe would not make a prediction, but spoke to a “national-type correspondent” who is picking the Tigers.  Placido Polanco thinks the Tigers can win it all.

These experts seem to be overlooking one factor. The bullpen.

Gammons addresses it briefly.

Zumaya and Fernando Rodney threw only 63 2/3 innings between them last season. But, healthy as they seem, they give Leyland a potentially dominant setup crew for new closer Brandon Lyon.

This crew is potentially dominant. It’s also a potential disaster.

Brandon Lyon is a closer, technically. He had 26 saves last season for Arizona. He also had a 1.483 WHIP and just 44 strikeouts in 59.3 innings. That’s his only season as a closer. His track record as a reliever is checkered. He’s also moving from AAAA to the American League. He may be decent. He may make Detroit fans pine for Todd-o-matic and his magical moustache.

Zumaya looked good in a throwing session, according to Gammons. But, it’s only February. He had the smoke as well last season, striking out 22 in 23.1 IP. He just never had the command, 22 BB and his WHIP blew up to 1.97. Durability, with his violent arm motion, and effectiveness, are not guaranteed. Hopefully, they can keep him away from Guitar Hero and hire someone to move his boxes.

Fernando Rodney etched himself in baseball minds with his great 2006, a fluke comapred to its fellow seasons. He struggled with command last year, walking 30 guys in 40.1 IP.  His WHIP increased to 1.59, as compared to the stellar 1.19 in 2006. The projections peg him as a 1.41-1.42 WHIP guy for next season, which is hardly a lights out set-up man.

The Tigers’ set-up apparatus is unsure, and their unspectacular middle relief – featuring the likes of Mike McCay, Macay McBride, Bobby Seay  and Zach Miner - may sink them.  Considering that only Verlander pitched 200 innings last season (and not well), they should get many opportunities to do it.

As in 2007 and 2008, the Tigers are longing backward to the magical 2006.  What they should discover, as they did the last two seasons, is that the World Series run was a career-year fueled aberration.  They aren’t unlucky now.  They were very lucky before.