2009 MLB Projections: NL Central
Baseball April 3rd. 2009, 1:15pm
1. Chicago Cubs. Can’t envision a scenario in which the stacked Cubs don’t win the division. The 4th and 5th starters are Rich Harden and Sean Marshall. Come on now. We’ll project 92 wins.
2. St. Louis Cardinals. We see the Cards over/under set at 82.5 most places, and even though we think very little of Tony LaRussa … we like St. Louis this year. Sure, a healthy Albert Pujols is likely to put up better offensive numbers than the rest of his infield, combined, rookie closers can be dangerous, and who knows how Chris Carpenter will perform in his long-awaited return (nobody actually puts stock in the preseason, do they?). We’ll guess 85 victories.
3. Cincinnati Reds. Surprised? Kinda fell in lust with the young cats – Cueto, Votto, Bruce and Volquez – and thus the 81-win projection. Of course, if Cueto and Volquez struggle, and Votto and Bruce don’t power the offense .. this easily could be a last-place team. Well, not last … nobody could do worse than the Pirates this year. Or any year since Andy Van Slyke, Bonilla and Bonds left, really.
4. Milwaukee Brewers. Tough not to like that offense; tougher to like that pitching staff that lost its top two pitchers and closer. We’ll guess 80 wins. But we’ll add that we’re rooting for these guys (again), but this time due to 3B coach Willie Randolph.
5. Houston Astros. This old batch of Mitchell Report rejects is destined for 71 wins. Best-case scenario: Kaz Matsui’s anal fissures return, hilarity ensues. The Astros should remain in the news all season … only because they’re going to be dumping players by June when it becomes evident there’s no hope.
6. Pittsburgh Pirates. The guess has to be 68 wins. In 2008 they won 67 games, the year before that 68, in 2006 they won 67 and of course in 2005 they won 68. Patterns rule! Closest they’ve been to .500 since 1992? That would be 1999’s 78-win team. At least the LaRoche brothers are a cool story.
40 Responses to “2009 MLB Projections: NL Central”
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April 3rd, 2009 at 1:21 PM
The 4th and 5th starters are Rich Harden and Sean Marshall.
I still can’t figure out how Dempster is above Harden in the rotation. He’s had one good year; the rest of his career has been horrible.
April 3rd, 2009 at 1:26 PM
Hey man, the Pirates’ fifth starter almost had a no-hitter last year!
Central champs, baby! Jeff Karstens’ 6+ Spring ERA will fuel us!
April 3rd, 2009 at 1:30 PM
The Cubs. LOL! Man They suck.
April 3rd, 2009 at 1:30 PM
As a Reds fan, very cautiously optimistic. Defensive improvements in the OF should really help the staff.
April 3rd, 2009 at 1:30 PM
Actually, if the preseason is an accurate predictor of anything, it is when it comes to pitchers coming off injuries. BP did a nice piece on it a few months back, if I can find it, I’ll link it.
April 3rd, 2009 at 1:31 PM
I just looked at the rest of the rankings. TBL watches Zero baseball or has serious loyalty to Nick P.
April 3rd, 2009 at 1:33 PM
The 4th and 5th starters are Rich Harden and Sean Marshall.
At least you didn’t mention a guy who isn’t on the team.
/Peavy’d
April 3rd, 2009 at 1:34 PM
You’re selling the Cardinals short. They have a good bat in Ryan Ludwick that you somehow forgot to mention (.591 slugging, 113 RBI, .375 OBP last season), and if their pitching can get it together (how much can you read into Carpenter’s good spring training pitching performances?) I think they take the division.
April 3rd, 2009 at 1:39 PM
anyone see where the pirates lost to a community college team in florida?
April 3rd, 2009 at 1:40 PM
Jimmy hell yea I saw that. When I went to the ESPN party I met a pitcher in their organization and told him how much they sucked and he agreed.
April 3rd, 2009 at 1:42 PM
it was a team of Pirate minor leaguers, and the Dutch beat the DR. anything can happen in one game.
April 3rd, 2009 at 1:42 PM
In case no one else has linked what jimmy and tampa were talking about
April 3rd, 2009 at 1:44 PM
LBL – was in the roundup
April 3rd, 2009 at 1:46 PM
Manatee CC has a good program. I played with a pitcher that transferred from there and he was beast. Dumber than a brick, but threw 90mph, had a silly duece and could somehow throw an 85mph knuckleball that was almost uncatchable, definitely unframeable.
Still, no excuse for Pirates. Why’d even schedule games like that if there’s a chance of losing?
April 3rd, 2009 at 1:47 PM
Cubs win this going away…October different story.
April 3rd, 2009 at 1:48 PM
@ TBL: That’s what I get for not being able to visit this site as much as I used to. Kinda related: I miss the Friday afternoon interview series you had going back in January, any chance of that coming back? The subjects were great, the questions were thought-provoking, and the discussion in here after the interview was always solid. Or has the economy taken a toll on landing quality interview subjects?
April 3rd, 2009 at 1:49 PM
Go Reds!
They had a chance to do some things to put them in contention for a Wild Card, but they blew it. 3rd-4th sounds about right.
78 wins.
April 3rd, 2009 at 1:50 PM
fucking ASStros
April 3rd, 2009 at 1:52 PM
And baseball at a good number of Community Colleges is just as good as top Div 1 programs. Kids who want to raise their draft stock after HS, are too dumb to get into a 4-year school, can’t decide where to go or haven’t received a scholarship to a big program often go to CCs to play for one or two years. It’s totally different from other sports at CCs.
April 3rd, 2009 at 1:53 PM
NickP ~ here’s to hoping that Kenny Williams kicks the tires on the Homer Bailey/Jermaine Dye trade rumor again.
April 3rd, 2009 at 1:53 PM
I still need to have an intimate sit down with this division before my predictions, but I’m not sure I’m so sold on the Cubs.
April 3rd, 2009 at 1:54 PM
And a lot of CC’s have better facilities dedicated to baseball
April 3rd, 2009 at 1:54 PM
Why the fuck would the Pirates schedule a split game so that they could get playing time for both their regular roster and their prospects? SO DUMB!
Pirates are NOT finishing last this season, guaranteed.
April 3rd, 2009 at 1:55 PM
Hope not, Hernia. Not a big fan of Dye. Or his contract.
April 3rd, 2009 at 1:58 PM
well i sure as fuck hope its not houston
April 3rd, 2009 at 2:02 PM
How good do people think Cueto/Volquez will be this year? Was Volquez falling off mainly due to pitching a lot of innings?
April 3rd, 2009 at 2:07 PM
Is it wrong that I’d settle for 4th place?
April 3rd, 2009 at 2:08 PM
How good do people think Cueto/Volquez will be this year? Was Volquez falling off mainly due to pitching a lot of innings?
Being a power pitcher at Great American is probably why both of them fell off. I think a rebound from Harang is the most important thing for that staff.
April 3rd, 2009 at 2:08 PM
Dick Ankiel sucks
April 3rd, 2009 at 2:10 PM
@Roeth: If it’s the Pirates, I don’t think 4th place is called settling. It’s called hoping.
April 3rd, 2009 at 2:14 PM
How confident are you with this?
April 3rd, 2009 at 2:17 PM
best. post. evar.
/hostage situation in new york 15 dead. not cool
April 3rd, 2009 at 2:19 PM
Anyone arguing that the Cubs will not win this division based on the rosters is an idiot. Now once they start playing for real, I’m always guarded.
April 3rd, 2009 at 2:32 PM
only because they’re going to be dumping players by June when it becomes evident there’s no hope
Possibly, but the players we’ll be unloading won’t exactly be high caliber. Lee, Berkman, and Oswalt all have full no trade clauses and Berkman and Oswalt have expressed on numerous occasions that they have no desire to play anywhere but Houston. Lee has a huge ranch outside of the city which he visits everyday he’s not out on the road and from what I understand, this has made him rather fond of the city and the club. This is not to say he wouldn’t demand a trade, but he can’t have one forced upon him either for the reason mentioned above.
Who does that leave? Tejada who has a $16 million salary and won’t be touched by any team in the league right now. Hunter Pence is just about our only building block for the future and I can only see him being involved in a deal to land more pitching (like Peavy) and that’s only if we’re in the race come July (very doubtful).
So who, TBL, are we going to be ‘unloading’? Is there that much of a market for Geoff Blum or Kaz Matsui? Ivan Rodriguez is in a similar situation to Tejada, not many clubs want a piece of him. I don’t think any of the remaining players on the team are of high enough quality for our trading them away to be considered ‘unloading’. Besides, it’s not like we have a ton of prospects we could bring up for seasoning to take the place of the departed players. Chris Johnson, Bud Norris, Felipe Paulino and that’s about it. Brian Bogusevic isn’t really a prospect any more and at any rate he’s not ready for the Majors.
April 3rd, 2009 at 2:36 PM
Cubs are going to miss Derosa big time, they undervalued him. As said before Dempster will regress to the mean, not sold on Marshall, only one crappy lefty neil cotts in the pen, still a right handed dominated lineup, harden and bradley won’t give them a full year. Still think they will win the division but the brewers or cards may get a couple surprises in some youngerr guys and challenge them if the cubs get a couple of bad breaks.
Weeks, has changed his hitting approach this year and Randolph has already made him much better in the field, he may finally realize his potential this year and if Hart stops chasing every ball low and away he might take another step forward or at least return to his 1st half of last year form. Outside shot that Bill Hall’s lasik surgery actually helps, or he could just get back on the juice again, but if 2 out of 3 of those guys improve from last year the lineup might carry a crappy staff into contention.
April 3rd, 2009 at 2:40 PM
Or use a pink bat
April 3rd, 2009 at 2:59 PM
Fairly, I’d put twenty bucks on it with you.
April 3rd, 2009 at 3:25 PM
echo what the General said, but…
Bush finished pretty well in September and October, and couple that with the potential from Manny Parra (1 full season under his belt, stretch of 8 or 9 straight wins) and if Capuano comes back in May we could have 4 quality starters. Obviously no horses, but still…The only question I have is with the bullpen and the recent obsession with former great closers.
April 3rd, 2009 at 4:05 PM
I have given up on Cappy not too many pitchers come back after 2 tommy john surgeries, Bush may surprise but still he is a 3 at best, the inning jumps that Parra and Gallardo would have to make scares me a bit and Suppan is worthless as always.
agree about the bullpen, but I hopefully defelice can surprise some people and mclung is a solid spot starter/bullpen option. Still seems like they need way to many things to go right to contend.
April 4th, 2009 at 12:50 AM
Anyone thinking the Brewers without Sheets, CC and a bullpen will be in contention must be smoking crack with their cheese.