Selena Roberts, famous for breaking the Alex Rodriguez-steroids story back in February, has ventured into the world of bold predictions this week. (No word on if she reached out to Mike Blowers for tips.) In the latest SI, she attempts to formulate a compelling argument that Tiger Woods will not pass Jack’s record for Majors. Her argument is three fold:

1) “isn’t there an inevitable expiration date on prodigies?”
2) “With [Butch] Harmon, Tiger conjured eight majors from ’97 through ’02. Without him, he experienced a 10-major drought at his physical peak—precious time lost on the Jack trail”
3) “Tiger is a control freak’s control freak, but not even he will be able to contain the locomotive of expectation should he reach No. 16 or No. 17.”

It is without question a reach … but also the most coherent reach we’ve read about Tiger not setting the record. [SI]