Plenty has changed since our first stab at guessing the NCAA Field of 64 two weeks ago. Some traditional powers are struggling – North Carolina, Louisville, Connecticut, Michigan – and other big-name programs find themselves on the outside looking in (Notre Dame and Florida, again).

Here are the 1-bid leagues: America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Horizon League, Ivy League*, MAAC, MAC, MEAC, Northeast, Metro Valley, Ohio Valley Patriot, Southern, Southland, Southwestern, Summitt, and Sun Belt. That’s 19 bids, and since two of these teams will be in the play-in game, that’s 18 teams out of 64, leaving 46 teams to round out the field.

* If Harvard manages to beat Cornell in the league championship game – unlikely, since the Crimson lost to the Big Red by 36 over the weekend – then Cornell should get an at-large bid (RPI 33, SOS 146, 0-2 vs. the Top 50). [Edit: Ha! The Ivy is above a conference tournament.]

**ACC (7): Duke, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Florida State, Wake Forest, Maryland, Virginia.

Bubble: The Cavaliers are in for now, and even if they went 5-5 down the stretch, that’d make ‘em 18-11, 9-7. North Carolina is 13-8, 2-4 and on the bubble. The resume needs major work. The Heels have lost five of seven. Virginia Tech (16-4, 3-3) is here as well, but in better shape than UNC despite a head-to-head loss.

**Big East (7): Villanova, Syracuse, West Virginia, Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Louisville, Connecticut.

Bubble: Louisville (13-8, 4-4) and Connecticut are in for now, and conveniently, they play tonight. The Huskies (13-8, 3-5) need it more. Cincinnati is squarely on the bubble.

Bearcats: 14-7, 5-4 in the Big East. RPI 48, SOS 38, 3-5 vs. the Top 50. If Cincy can stay above .500 in league play with that resume, it is in. Now, the problem – with nine games left, they still have to play Syracuse, Villanova, WVU and Georgetown.

Marquette and Seton Hall are on the bubble but have plenty of work to do. Notre Dame has to wonder if Mike Brey is the guy for the job; he had one of the best players in school history and for the last two years had to settle for the NIT.

Edit: Had to dump a team. Knocked Connecticut back to the bubble.

**Atlantic 10 (3): Xavier, Temple, Rhode Island.

Bubble: Charlotte, Dayton, and Richmond are all on the bubble. Could be a 5-6 bid league, but 3-4 is more likely as they beat up on each other. Below, we put them in the order we think they’ll finish. (Note: All three are currently ahead of UNC on the bubble.)

Dayton 15-6, 4-3. RPI 41, SOS 49. Lost three of five, big home game vs. Xavier Saturday.
Richmond 16-6, 5-2. RPI 38, SOS 64. Closes the regular season against at Xavier, vs Dayton, and at Charlotte.
Charlotte 16-5, 6-1. RPI 44, SOS 126. 3-5 vs. the Top 50. Won five in a row.

**Big 10 (4): Wisconsin, Purdue, Michigan State, Ohio State.

Bubble: Illinois (RPI 80, SOS 78) narrowly ahead of Minnesota (RPI 54, SOS 23) … for now. Illini have a brutal four-game stretch coming up: Michigan State, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Purdue. Win two of those and Illinois remains in the discussion. The Gophers (4-5 in league play) have lost five of seven but the road from here on out is much easier. One of these two likely will crack the field. If we had to guess, it’d be the Gophers.

**Big 12 (7): Texas, Kansas, Kansas St. Baylor, Missouri, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M.

Bubble: There isn’t an 8th team that warrants consideration.

**SEC (6): Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Mississippi, South Carolina, Florida.

Bubble: The Gamecocks have the resume of a bubble team (13-8, 4-3, RPI of 61, SOS of 26), but a marquee win over Kentucky puts them in right now. Can they split with Tennessee? Florida’s barely in, too. Obviously could have used that win over Tennessee. With an RPI of 55 and a SOS of 73, the Gators still get Tennessee and Vandy at home, plus can really boost the resume with a win over Xavier.

Mississippi State was in the first time we did this, but suffered bad losses to NIT-bound Alabama and Arkansas.

**Pac-10 (2): Cal and Arizona are in the best shape, though nobody would be surprised if Arizona collapsed next week. The rest of the league remains an unmitigated disaster. Washington has work to do – to get on the bubble. Arizona State would have to win the conference tourney to sneak in.

**Missouri Valley (2): Northern Iowa and Wichita State are in now. Nobody else is in contention.

**Conference USA (2): UAB and Tulsa are in the best shape, but UTEP is in the mix. (SI’s Andy Glockner has UTEP in.) We mentioned Marshall last time and it has lost four straight. Memphis still has an outside chance, but it’ll need to beat Gonzaga.

**Mountain West (3): New Mexico and BYU are locks. Some might have UNLV (17-4, 5-2) on the bubble, but we’ll put the Rebels in: RPI of 40, SOS of 111, and they are 3-2 against the Top 50. If the Rebels can beat BYU and New Mexico at home in the next 10 days, the Rebels are a lock to go dancing. A split and they’ll be fine. If they go 0-2 … bubble.

**WCC (2): Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s are in. Portland is on the wrong side of the bubble, but would be in great shape if it were able to win at Gonzaga this week.

**CAA (2): If Old Dominion wins the conference tourney, George Mason will be left out. But if GMU takes the conference tourney, then ODU (RPI 46, SOS 103) sneaks in. Since GMU already beat ODU, we’ll envision the 2nd scenario, and put both of them in. Northeastern is on the bubble, and will be an interesting case. At 14-8, 9-2, the Huskies have an RPI of 56 and an SOS of 43. They lack a marquee win and their resume is built on a few losses (Providence, Rhode Island, St. Mary’s) and a top-heavy conference.