Country: England
Nickname: The Three Lions
Rankings: 8 (FIFA), 3 (SPI)
Elite Players: Wayne Rooney, Frank Lampard, Ashley Cole
Key Players: Steven Gerrard, Emile Heskey, Gareth Barry, Rio Ferdinand, John Terry
History: Winners 1966, Semifinals 1990, Quarterfinals 1954, 1962, 1970, 1986, 2002, 2006
Odds to Win: 6-1

We few, we happy few, we band of brothers;
For he to-day that sheds his blood with me
Shall be my brother; be he ne’er so vile,
This day shall gentle his condition;
And gentlemen in England now-a-bed
Shall think themselves accurs’d they were not here,
And hold their manhoods cheap whiles any speaks
That fought with us upon Saint Crispin’s day. – Shakespeare, Henry V

We parrot the English media. Why won’t England win the World Cup? Because it’s England. Fatalism is much easier than introspection. It’s better to blame individual failure or nefarious, unsportsmanlike continentals than to admit a flaw in your national ethos.  The Premier League is a cosmopolitan plaything for foreigners. English managers, imbued with the anti-intellectual machoism of the past, had a recent spell of 14 years without winning a major trophy.  An Italian, Fabio Capello, has given England their most promising World Cup chance in decades, yet the fans and much of the media remain chained to the cave wall, babbling about Michael Owen.

The Capello Factor: This is England, but England coached by Fabio Capello. The Italian has the most impressive resume in this tournament. He managed for 15 club seasons in Europe, winning eight league titles with AC Milan, Real Madrid, Roma and Juventus (a ninth was revoked after the Calciopoli scandal). He has made three European Cup finals and won one.

Unlike a Sir Alex Ferguson or Arsene Wenger, Capello’s skill-set translates seamlessly to the international game. He is the master of assessing talent and disposing it effectively without sentiment. He never took years implementing a “Capello system” or spent silly money on “Capello players.” He won, immediately, in multiple places. Players hate him, but they win for him. He is Larry Brown, but with Phil Jackson’s rings.

England’s main weaknesses, besides penalty-taking, were personality conflicts and tactical inflexibility. They now have an undisputed alpha dog and one of the greatest tactical minds in soccer, who could not care less about the English media. He’s perfect.

Qualifying: Capello treats international friendlies as he should, a time to experiment. The friendlies are scratch paper. Look at England’s competitive record. They went 9-1-0 in qualifying, outscoring opponents 34-6. Croatia was England’s nemesis during Euro 2008 qualification and a top-ten FIFA ranking team. England mauled them 9-2 over two legs. The one loss was 1-0 away to Ukraine in the second to last match when England’s qualification was secure.  That effort was fair, since England had the goalkeeper sent off early in the match. This is England under Fabio Capello, ruthless.

Tactics: This isn’t Brazil. Capello has English players, with English strengths and limitations. Using common sense, he plays an English system. English players aren’t strong tactically. The simple 4-4-2 minimizes confusion. They don’t have the technique to hold possession well. They don’t try. They are direct, aggressive and use their athleticism to their advantage.  They scored six more goals than any other European country in qualifying.

The White Pele: Rooney is the key. Without sublimating his game for Ronaldo this season, he has fulfilled his potential. Like Messi and Ronaldo, there are no flaws in his game. He has brilliant technique. He’s mentally two steps ahead of everyone else. Rooney has matured into a leader, almost single-handedly keeping Manchester United relevant.

There hasn’t been an English Pele, Maradona or Zidane, a game-changing talent who can dominate a tournament. The closest England has had is Kevin Keegan, and his brilliance was squandered when England failed to qualify in 1974 and 1978. Rooney has that potential. If England go anywhere in South Africa, he will take them.

Squad: Rooney will play behind a big striker, almost undoubtedly Emile Heskey. Heskey eschews rudimentary English comprehension, because he doesn’t score many goals. He is, however, extremely hardworking, unselfish, holds up the ball well and wreaks havoc on back lines with his immense physical presence. He gives Wayne Rooney the space to be Wayne Rooney. Heskey may not score goals when he plays, but England do. Since Steve McClaren recalled him to the national team in 2007, England has outscored opponents 26-4 in competitive matches with Heskey on the pitch.

Capello settled the Gerrard/Lampard conundrum, by playing Gerrard on the left-wing. This lets England capitalize on Gerrard’s explosiveness while limiting his tactical liability. Lampard and Barry form a competent pair in midfield. While England has credible right-wing players, such as Adam Johnson and James Milner. It’s one of the few positions for Capello to inject some speed, probably from Tottenham’s Aaron Lennon.

England’s weakness is defense, because of age and injury. Rio Ferdinand has been unable to play much of the season with a back injury and been borderline terrible when he has. John Terry has lost a step, looking poor against quick players and in the air. He has been flailing, lunging into poor tackles out of desperation. Both Terry and Ferdinand have experience and leadership capability, but the tangible ability to move must trump that at some point. Ashley Cole is among the world’s best left backs, assuming he’s healthy. Glen Johnson is adept going forward, but can be inconsistent defensively. If the back four becomes chaotic, England does not have the goalkeeper to impose order.

Conclusion: England is not a favorite in this tournament, but the draw places them in the tier just below Brazil and Spain. They are clearly the best team in Group C. Teams that hold possession and pressure in midfield give England problems. Their hardest challenge, the United States, does neither. Nate Silver’s numbers give them an 85.1% chance of advancing.

England has an easy route through the knockout stages, if they get first int he group. Assuming other teams perform as expected, they would avoid Spain, Brazil, Italy, Germany and Argentina until the semifinal. England is not the team best equipped to knock off Spain or Brazil, but they are the team most likely to get the opportunity. The paper situation looks promising, but “it is England.”

Random Fact: The National Anthem of the United States was composed by an Englishman, John Stafford Smith.

Group A: South Africa, Mexico, Uruguay, France
Group B: Argentina, Nigeria, South Korea, Greece
Group C: England, United States, Algeria, Slovenia
Group D: Germany, Australia, Serbia, Ghana
Group E: Netherlands, Denmark, Japan, Cameroon
Group F: Italy, Paraguay, New Zealand, Slovakia
Group G: Brazil, North Korea, Ivory Coast, Portugal
Group H: Spain, Switzerland, Honduras, Chile