Country: Japan
Nickname: Blue Samurai
Key Players: Shunsuke Nakamura, Yuji Nakazawa, Atsuto Uchida, Makoto Hasebe, Yashuito Endo, Shinji Okazaki
Rankings: 45 (FIFA), 40 (SPI)
History: Knockout Round (2002-host), Qualified (1998, 2006)
Odds to Win: 250-1

“Don’t feel sorry for yourself. Only assholes do that.” – Haruki Murakami

Japan has been, along with South Korea, one of the most consistently successful Asian teams the last twenty years. The Japanese have won three Asian Cups and qualified for every major tournament since 1998, but they have a definite ceiling. They beat teams that are worse and get beat badly by teams that are better. Japan rode the home-field advantage to the first knockout round in 2002, but they have taken just one point from six World Cup matches played off Japanese soil. The standard of Japanese soccer is improving, with the best players starting to go to Europe, but coach Takeshi Okada’s stated desire to make the semifinals remains ludicrously impossible.

Form: Japan qualified second from AFC qualifying Group A, compiling a 4-3-1 record. The only loss was 2-1 away to fellow qualifiers Australia in the final match. Three of the wins came on the road. In friendlies they have impressed, beating Chile 4-0, Belgium 4-0, Ghana 4-3, Togo 5-0 and Scotland 2-0. In April, however, a Serbian B-team crushed them at home 3-0.

Tactics: The Japanese struggle up front. They don’t have a goal-scorer – Okada has gone through 21 strikers since 2008 – so expect them to play short passes, keep things tight and hope for a Nakamura special on a free kick. They play with a base of four defenders and two holding midfielders and two wide midfielders. Depending on the opponent, they play two strikers or a third midfielder to make it a 4-4-2 or a 4-2-3-1 Okada does have experience bringing Japan to a World Cup, though that experience was being eliminated with three group stage losses in 1998, including an embarrassing 2-1 defeat by Jamaica.

Squad: Japan’s back five is Japanese based. Nagoya Grampus goalkeeper Seigo Narazaki will be first choice. Captain Yuji Nakazawa will partner Marcus Tulio Tanaka, Japanese-Brazilian father and Italian-Brazilian mother, at the back. Atsuto Uchida, 22, who has attracted some interest from Schakle will play on the right, and 23-year-old Yuto Nagatomo should be the left-back.

The two-holding midfielders will be Wolfsburg’s Makoto Hasebe and veteran Yasuhito Endo, the reigning Asian Player of the Year. Endo is an excellent defender and a superb passer who can cause problems and put out fires all over the pitch. Former Celtic great Shunsuke Nakamura will be on the right wing, with Kengo Nakamura in the middle and some combination of Shinji Okazaki, Keiji Tamada and Yoshito Okubo up front or on the left, depending on the shape. Okazaki scored 15 goals in 16 appearances for Japan last year, though only one was in a competitive match.

Prediction: This group is tough for Japan on paper. They will need to score goals to get results and I don’t see them doing it. It would take an incredible performance for them to escape from the group. Though, as Nate Silver points out, Japan is awesome against African teams, 5-0-1 since 2007 outscoring them 16-4.

Interesting Fact: The first geisha were men.

Group A: South Africa, Mexico, Uruguay, France
Group B: Argentina, Nigeria, South Korea, Greece
Group C: England, United States, Slovenia, Algeria
Group D: Germany, Australia, Serbia, Ghana
Group E: Netherlands, Denmark, Japan, Cameroon
Group F: Italy, Paraguay, New Zealand, Slovakia
Group G: Brazil, North Korea, Ivory Coast, Portugal
Group H: Spain, Switzerland, Honduras, Chile