Country: Italy
Nickname: The Azzurri
Elite Players: Gigi Buffon, Giorgio Chiellini, Daniele De Rossi
Key Players: Fabio Cannavaro, Gianluca Zambrotta, Andrea Pirlo, Alberto Gilardino
Rankings: 5 (FIFA), 11 (SPI)
History: Winners (1934, 1938, 1982, 2006) Finalists (1970, 1994) Semifinalists (1978, 1990)
Odds to Win: 12-1

“No enterprise is more likely to succeed than one concealed from the enemy until it is ripe for execution.” – Niccolo Machiavelli

The Italians are cynical. They don’t exert for its own sake. They don’t play for the competitive spirit. They play to win. If Italians are losing 3-0 or 4-0, effort is fruitless. They shut down. If a draw would benefit both clubs in a Serie A relegation battle, that game will end tied. Italy conserves, conserves, conserves and then strikes when it most matters, at the World Cup.  We saw it in 2006.

Since reemerging from the doldrums in 1978, the Azzuri have made three finals, winning twice. They also have two semifinal appearances. Their four total World Cup titles are bested only Brazil’s five. The margin was the 1994 final when Italy fought Brazil to a 0-0 draw and lost on penalties. Italy rarely astounds teams on paper, but with their experience, their cohesion and their toughness they can beat any team in the tournament.

Form: Italy was undefeated in qualifying from a pitiful UEFA Group with a six-point margin. They were sloppy at times though, shipping goals to both Cyprus and Montenegro at home. Coach Marcello Lippi likes to experiment during friendlies. The experiments have been inconclusive. In the last four friendlies, Italy has drawn 0-0 away to Switzerland, 0-0 at home to Netherlands and Cameroon. They beat Sweden at home 1-0.

Tactics: Lippi spent much of last year playing a 4-3-3. The last two times he fielded it were a 3-0 drubbing by Brazil at the Confederations Cup and a qualifying match where they went down 2-0 in the first half to Cyprus. Lippi switches tactics and personnel fairly often. Recently, Italy has shown a 3-4-3 and a 4-3-1-2 diamond. The most likely formation will be a defensively sound 4-2-3-1, morphing to a 4-3-3 when they attack.

Old Age: The Italians are old. They had a veteran squad in 2006. They tried to relive the magic at Euro 2008 and faied. They rehired Marcello Lippi and will try again in 2010. Italy’s prospective starting XI has six players 30 or older and only one player younger than 25. The youngest player in the preliminary squad is 23. Failing to blood fresh talent has created an experience gap. Sixteen of the 28 preliminary squad members have fifteen or fewer caps.

Squad: Gigi Buffon is arguably the best goalkeeper of his generation. His form spiraled with Juventus’ last season, but if he’s enlivened by the fresh atmosphere he can make a difference.

Captain Cannavaro was a rock in 2006, but no longer. His last season was awful. He’s 36. He’s retiring internationally after the tournament and possibly for good, as Juventus did not offer him a contract. The defense will lean on his Juve teammate Giorgio Chiellini, the two-time reigning Defender of the Year in Serie A. Old hand Gianluca Zambrotta will play right back and, after Fabio Grosso was dropped entirely, the left back should be 23-year-old Genoa man Domenico Criscito.

Italy should field a three-man central midfield with Roma star Daniele De Rossi in a holding role, Sampdoria’s Angelo Palombo and AC Milan legend Andrea Pirlo in a playmaking role. Lippi could, however, opt for experience, dusting the mothballs off Mauro Camoranesi or Gennaro Gattuso. The Italians are short on playmakers and could be in trouble if Pirlo is hurt or ineffective.

The forward line will be solid but unspectacular. Fiorentina’s Alberto Gilardino has a solid goal-scoring rate. Vincenzo Iaquinta and Antonio Di Natale should flank him. American-Italian Giuseppe Rossi, consistently solid at Spanish side Villarreal, should make the squad but probably as a reserve.

Fatherhood: Lippi once again left out Antonio Cassano, and, surely, it has nothing to do with the rumors Cassano beat the crap out of Lippi’s son.  He could have given the team some playmaking depth.  The forward line might have looked more imposing as well with Fabrizio Miccoli, but Lippi allegedly refuses to call him up because he testified against the same son during the Calciopoli trial.

Advancing With Ease: Italy received the easiest draw for a major power. Group F is the weakest in the field. Paraguay is the toughest team. Unless the Netherlands falters, the Italians will play a beatable Denmark/Cameroon before facing Spain most likely in the quarterfinal. Spain would be favored, but keep in mind, Italy held Spain to a 0-0 draw in Euro 2008. The Spaniards only advanced on penalties.

Interesting Facts: Romans love cats.  Killing a cat in Rome is a $12,200 fine.  It’s punishable by up to three years in prison.

Group A: South Africa, Mexico, Uruguay, France
Group B: Argentina, Nigeria, South Korea, Greece
Group C: England, United States, Slovenia, Algeria
Group D: Germany, Australia, Serbia, Ghana
Group E: Netherlands, Denmark, Japan, Cameroon
Group F: Italy, Paraguay, New Zealand, Slovakia
Group G: Brazil, North Korea, Ivory Coast, Portugal
Group H: Spain, Switzerland, Honduras, Chile