The 2010 World Cup is expected to be the largest betting event in world history, though it’s unclear how big it will be in the United States.  Here is a brief preview.

Winners: The World Cup is all about chalk, Italy, Germany, Brazil and Argentina. Only two other countries – England ’66 and France ’98 – have won since 1954. Both hosted those tournaments. Since 1962, the Netherlands is the only other country besides those six to make a final. Spain and Brazil are favorites, but the reward is not worth the risk. Argentina have too much bust potential for 6.5 -1. England at 7-1 is interesting, they need to pull off one upset to get to the final. The best value picks are Netherlands 9-1, Germany 12-1 and Italy 14-1. If you want to throw money away on a long-shot, try Uruguay at 125-1 or Serbia 50-1.

Semifinals: Surprise teams seldom make the final, but they have made the semifinals. Turkey and South Korea made it in 2002. Croatia in 1998. Bulgaria in 1994. There is precedent. Three of the places should be locked down by potential quarterfinal matchups of Germany/Argentina, Spain/Italy and Brazil/Netherlands. One lesser power, however, will get a crack at England. Try Uruguay 11-1, Mexico 10-1 or Serbia 7-1.

Top Scorer: Top scorer is common sense. You want a team that will reach the later stages, and has an easy group. There are two tiers you want to look at. The favorites are David Villa at 7.5-1, Rooney at 10-1 and Luis Fabiano at 11-1. For value picks, I like the Uruguay pair Diego Forlan 33-1 and Luis Suarez 50-1. Miroslav Klose is coming off a brutal season at Bayern Munich, but he’s never been a great club player and has always been prolific for Germany, with 10 goals at the past two World Cups. He’s at 28-1.

Golden Ball: This is the award for best player. Look for players on teams with a chance to make the final. Stay away from Messi at 5.5-1. Stay away from all the Spain players as well. There are too many great ones to figure out which will be key. Kaka and Rooney are 14-1. I like Wesley Sneijder at 25-1. For some longer shots, I would say Lucio at 50-1 and Bastian Schweinsteiger at 66-1.

Stay Away: Any of the African teams. Michael Essien is out. Didier Drogba’s status is uncertain. Prominent Cameroon figures decided it was wise to piss off notoriously sensitive Samuel Eto’o just before the tournament. The home-continent advantage is extremely overrated. West African teams are still travelling a long way to get to the tournament. Ivory Coast is almost equidistant from the site of their first match. The Germany summer climate was far more similar than the chilly, winter weather they will face in South Africa.

Take the Over: Normally, I only bet on single-games for the Super Bowl. But, England scores a ton of goals. The U.S. allows them.  That match should be wide open.  The over/under for goals in that match is 3.5. Take the over.

[Photo via Icon]