Netherlands-Cameroon is perfunctory. The Dutch will be in the second round. The Indomitable Lions won’t be. As long as the Netherlands gets a point, they win the group. The interesting matchup is Denmark-Japan. Both teams beat Cameroon and lost to the Netherlands. The winner will advance to the second round. Japan would move on if the teams draw.

Like Uruguay, the Danish have been versatile. Though ultimately foiled, they played a stern defensive game against the Dutch. In the second match, they changed tactics. They uncoiled on Cameroon and killed them down the right wing with Dennis Rommedahl’s speed (alleged to be 10.2 sec in the 100m). Both Nicklas Bendtner and Jon Dahl Tomasson have struggled with injuries but will start. Promising defender Simon Kjaer is suspended after two yellow cards. The Danes have never been eliminated in the group stage.

Japan were expected to be the worst team in this group. Their pre-World Cup run was terrible, losing four consecutive friendlies and being outscored 9-1. Arsene Wenger told Japan coach Takeshi Okada they would “build a statue of him” if he emerged from that group. Yet, the Japanese held on for a 1-0 win against a disorganized Cameroon team and for the most part thwarted the Dutch in a 1-0 loss. They are a win away from their first trip to the second round away from home.

Two issues may decide this match. First, can Japan score a goal? They got one against Cameroon, but have not threatened much in either match. Keisuke Honda is not a reliable striker playing alone up front. He’s a midfielder and free kick specialist. As the Guardian’s James Richardson put it, “If Japan were starting a Prius instead of a Honda, they’d be unstoppable.” With Rommedahl’s speed they will be cautious about sending too many men forward.

Second, can Japan handle the Danes’ width? Japan defended successfully against Cameroon and the Netherlands, but both teams played narrowly. Denmark will stretch the field with three advanced forwards. The difference may be how Japan reacts.

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