I’m going to put up picks for this week to close out the regular season, but this week is more about trying to figure out who will be motivated to play and who will be planning their golf vacations and spa treatments, or who will be looking for a little extra rest time before the playoffs.  Thus, lots of guesses, as the lines are not necessarily reflective of what has happened all season. 

Last week’s 4-1 mark in the top two categories clinched me a winning record in those categories and a playoff spot in a weak division, so I’ll get a chance to embarrass myself with picks in the playoffs.  This week, there are some games I do like despite all the guesses, as I feel some of the lines have overreacted.  As it turns out, my top 6 picks are all road teams, usually sizeable underdogs. 

GAMES I LIKE (40-34-2 for the season)

1. Tampa Bay (+8.5) at NEW ORLEANS, 1 pm.  This line strikes me as slightly high anyway, and then the Saints know that they can’t improve their position unless Atlanta tanks against Carolina, while the Bucs have plenty to play for (the Giants and Packers both play later).

2. Tennessee (+9.5) at INDIANAPOLIS, 4 pm.  This line just seems too high.  I know that the Colts are playing to win the division, and I expect them to do that, but I don’t think it will be easy.  Johnson will be able to run in this one and the Titans keep it close.

3. Cincinnati (+10.5) at BALTIMORE, 1 pm.  Another line that seems to have pushed too high.  The Bengals matchup well with the Ravens with corners that can lock down on the outside and limit the Ravens passing game, and this is the type of series with a minimized home field advantage.  As we saw last week, Bengals still playing and trying hard.

4. NY Giants (-3.5) at WASHINGTON, 4 pm.  Another road team that won’t be disadvantaged by the elements, and the Giants have plenty to play for.  I look for a bounce back effort from New York so they can scoreboard watch Green Bay late.

GAMES I LEAN (41-29-2 for the season)

5. Carolina (+15.5) at ATLANTA, 1 pm.  Atlanta knows they win this one, and they get the #1 seed.  They probably also know that they just need to avoid turnovers and costly mistakes to do that, so I look for a conservative game plan to get the victory, but not to cover a huge number.

7. CLEVELAND (+6) vs. Pittsburgh, 1 pm.  The Browns will have another year without the playoffs, but they get to put a dent in Pittsburgh’s chances to win the title with a victory today. 

6. Chicago (+10.5) at GREEN BAY, 4 pm.  This line has about 4.5 points built in on the assumption that Chicago doesn’t try as hard.  That seems like enough to make me take the Bears in this case, though they will know by just after kickoff whether they have any chance to improve to the #1 seed.

8. HOUSTON (-3) vs. Jacksonville, 4 pm.  Jacksonville is without David Garrard and Maurice Jones-Drew, and the Texans will probably show up for once to avenge the Hail Mary and get t0 6-10.

9. St. Louis (-3) at SEATTLE, Sunday Night.  We don’t know whether Hasselbeck will play tonight, but I lean toward the Rams on the road in this one as they have been consistently more mediocre than the Seahawks.

GUESSES (27-39-2 for the season)

10. DETROIT (-3.5) vs. Minnesota, 1 pm.  Minnesota and Detroit both play at Ford Field for the second time in the last month.

11. Oakland (+3.5) at KANSAS CITY, 1 pm.  I would take the Chiefs if I knew they were going to play starters to go for the #3 seed, but I’m not confident in how they play it knowing they return to action next weekend.

12. Buffalo (+1) at NY JETS, 1 pm.  The Jets would be the pick here if I had a read on their motivation, but the Bills usually play well in New Jersey, and New York may rest players.

13. NEW ENGLAND (-5) vs. Miami, 1 pm.  Another game where we don’t know how the Patriots will play it, plus a warm weather team with nothing to play for playing in cold conditions makes this one a stay away.

14. PHILADELPHIA (-3) vs. Dallas, 4 pm.  Another game where the Eagles likely rest starters, offset by Dallas having injuries and playing in cold weather.

15. Arizona (+6) at SAN FRANCISCO, 4 pm.  I have no idea how San Francisco will respond at this point.

16.  San Diego (-3.5) at DENVER, 4 pm.  Yeah, it’s San Diego.  I could see them losing in an embarrassing display to close the season after being eliminated, or winning by 30.

[photo via Getty]