Steelers Fans: Fear Regression to the Mean, But Not a Super Bowl Loser’s Curse
NFL, Stats February 9th. 2011, 1:30pm
The Pittsburgh Steelers should not fear any so-called Loser’s Curse. Thirteen Super Bowl losers have missed the playoffs the following season. So have thirteen Super Bowl winners. The Super Bowl losers have performed worse than the Super Bowl winners the next season, but that can be explained by the fact that the winner was usually the better team. Here is the performance of the three selected groups the following season: the Super Bowl winners, the Super Bowl losers, and teams that lost a divisional round home game, since 1978.
———————————————————————————————
| SB Win | SB Loss | Ch Game | Div Round | WC | No Playoffs | ||
| WINNER | 5 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 11 | |
| LOSER | 0 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 12 | |
| DIV RD HOME | 5 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 18 | |
———————————————————————————————
What we can say is that no recent Super Bowl loser has rebounded to win the Super Bowl the next season (the last to do so: the undefeated Miami Dolphins in 1972), but they make the playoffs more frequently than, say, teams that lost at home in the divisional round.
As another way of testing how Super Bowl losers performed the next season, I paired each Super Bowl loser since 1978 with the playoff team (excluding Super Bowl winners) from the same season that had the most similar regular season power ranking by the simple rating system.
The results: the Super Bowl losers went from an average ranking of 6.7 points better than average in the year they lost in the final game, to 2.4 points better than average the next season. The comparables dropped from 5.9 points above average to 2.3 points above average. Fourteen of the comparables missed the playoffs the following season, compared to twelve Super Bowl losers.
What it does show is that any playoff team, including Super Bowl losers, is subject to regression toward the mean. Injuries, aging, change in luck all can result in a slightly worse performance the next year on average. We see that Super Bowl losers and their similar playoff counterparts both were still above average, but declined. The good news for Pittsburgh is that they have farther to go than the typical Super Bowl losing squad. This year’s team ranks as the 7th best of the Super Bowl losers (out of 32) since 1978, at +10.2 points above average.
[photo via Getty]
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81 Responses to “Steelers Fans: Fear Regression to the Mean, But Not a Super Bowl Loser’s Curse”
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February 9th, 2011 at 1:35 PM
any theories as to why the drop occurs? Is it due to fatigue? losses with FA and Retirement and coaching changes? less prep time for the following season?
February 9th, 2011 at 1:36 PM
I’m slowly coming to terms with the loss. If you had told me on opening day that this flawed team would have 3 turnovers in the SB but still be hanging around with a chance to win I would have taken it.
Steelers will be better next year. I didnt even think they were making the playoffs this year.
February 9th, 2011 at 1:36 PM
Steelers fans biggest fear should be Big Grey getting in trouble again.
February 9th, 2011 at 1:38 PM
Lisk, great work this season!
February 9th, 2011 at 1:38 PM
In today’s NFL they typically get a tougher schedule too being matched up against the other conference winners (or 2nd place teams).
February 9th, 2011 at 1:39 PM
I would side with a combination of fatigue and roster turnover. In a physical sport like football, the more time to recover the better. The month difference between ending your season in late Dec/early Jan and ending it the first week in Feb is big. Sure it’s only 4 weeks, but that’s 4 weeks of rest and recovery and 4 weeks you can take to have any surgeries you might need.
February 9th, 2011 at 1:40 PM
Hell, PIT missed the playoffs both times after winning the Super Bowl in recent years.
February 9th, 2011 at 1:40 PM
meant conference division winners
February 9th, 2011 at 1:40 PM
Norm McDonald getting a sports show on Comedy Central. I actually think it will be good.
http://collider.com/sports-show-with-norm-macdonald-comedy-central/75326/
February 9th, 2011 at 1:40 PM
This
I don’t the the schedule has much to do with it since that only determines two of your games with all else being equal…you’d think there would be some mental component to getting that close only to come up short then have to start all over again with mini-camps and the like
February 9th, 2011 at 1:41 PM
Same here, I was thinking contending for the division and maybe making the playoffs as a wild card. I thought this dvision was Baltimore’s for the taking going into the season.
February 9th, 2011 at 1:48 PM
Norm McDonald getting a sports show on Comedy Central. I actually think it will be good.
hope its better than the sportsdome. that show has so much potential, but something is missing.
February 9th, 2011 at 1:49 PM
If it’s anything like his ESPY monologue in the 90s it will be awesome.
February 9th, 2011 at 1:51 PM
Agreed, decided I’ll just check out their website and watch any bits that look interesting…the show as a whole just doesn’t work like it should
February 9th, 2011 at 1:52 PM
It’s a little bit of a cliche, but don’t count out the “you’re every opponent’s Super Bowl” theory. Until this year, nobody circled the Saints on their schedule, with the possible exception of the Falcons.
February 9th, 2011 at 1:54 PM
!
Please take over CFB.
February 9th, 2011 at 1:55 PM
Agreed, decided I’ll just check out their website and watch any bits that look interesting…the show as a whole just doesn’t work like it should
i think if they showed actual highlights and made fun of them it would improve alot. no more “meth highlights” or “tree of woe”, its just not funny at all. in fact, its fucking stupid.
February 9th, 2011 at 1:59 PM
is there some sort of PayPal account where I can donate to Jason Lisk for his work? Whatever he’s being paid is not enough.
February 9th, 2011 at 2:00 PM
I agree with this, unless Lisk has the power to revive BBoB, in which case I would prefer that alternative.
great move in wrestling.
February 9th, 2011 at 2:01 PM
It looks like its strength will be Sportdome’s weakness — the ability to be topical and current. Norm was the best Weekend Update anchor of all time, btw.
February 9th, 2011 at 2:02 PM
Old school Mankind.
February 9th, 2011 at 2:02 PM
Norm McDonald getting a sports show on Comedy Central. I actually think it will be good.
February 9th, 2011 at 2:03 PM
Eh screwed up the quotes….what Dr. Tom said.
/crackwhore’d
//Germans love David Hasselhoff’d
February 9th, 2011 at 2:05 PM
I disagree, Nealon was my favorite.
February 9th, 2011 at 2:06 PM
It looks like its strength will be Sportdome’s weakness — the ability to be topical and current. Norm was the best Weekend Update anchor of all time, btw.
Agreed. He’s dry like the Sahara, but his delivery was perfect.
February 9th, 2011 at 2:07 PM
Matt Cooke got 4 games for his hit last night.
Probably deserved, not so much for the hit but for his entire body of work. Watching the game Tyutin definitely knew he was coming and turned his back, but Cooke still hit him square between the numbers with full force. Should have let up.
February 9th, 2011 at 2:08 PM
Seems to have gone forgotten and thus become underrated over time…I also liked Dennis Miller back when he was still funny
February 9th, 2011 at 2:09 PM
I liked Nealon fine and he had his moments, but Norm’s notes to self, Frank Stallone, and David Hasselhoff references always killed me.
February 9th, 2011 at 2:09 PM
I don’t know if it was Miller who got Al Franken Syndrome or Franken that got Miller Syndrome but they both got lost in the political quagmire.
February 9th, 2011 at 2:09 PM
Seems to have gone forgotten and thus become underrated over time…I also liked Dennis Miller back when he was still funny
I’ve always thought he was kind of overrated as the Weekend Update anchor. Even back then I can’t stand him because he’s so impressed with his own jokes. It’s just gotten worse over the years.
February 9th, 2011 at 2:11 PM
Dennis Miller has to be one of Duffy’s favorites – all those big words and vague references.
February 9th, 2011 at 2:12 PM
Seems to have gone forgotten and thus become underrated over time…I also liked Dennis Miller back when he was still funny
i think we can all agree colin quinn sucked balls.
February 9th, 2011 at 2:13 PM
Norm is far and away my favorite but I loved Kevin Nealon too. “Mr. Subliminal” was so damn great. His straight serious interaction with most of the guests was also fantastic.
February 9th, 2011 at 2:14 PM
i think we can all agree colin quinn sucked balls.
I couldn’t even understand what he was saying half the time. If ever there was a mumbler, it’s Colin Quinn.
February 9th, 2011 at 2:14 PM
He had to follow Norm after a public firing and he was not cut out for that type of delivery, he never had a chance.
Side note: I saw this SNL thing where Norm said they were going to do a Celebrity Jeopardy where the real Burt Reynolds came on and punched Norm out and took his place and then was even dumber than Norm played him. But then he was fired. Wish I could have seen that.
February 9th, 2011 at 2:15 PM
Just the simple fact that Norm was fired so he could replace him (not that that was the actual reason) made it all the more painful.
February 9th, 2011 at 2:17 PM
Nealon was definitely underrated…”If you’re like me…you’re 6-foot-4 and named Kevin.” Miller i thought was overrated. Quinn was by far the worst. Loved early-mid 90′s SNL though. Phil Hartman never became a star like Myers/Sandler/Farley/Rock, but on SNL he was the king.
February 9th, 2011 at 2:18 PM
I didn’t mind Colin Quinn. He was a downgrade over Norm, but not as bad as say…Tina Fey.
February 9th, 2011 at 2:19 PM
I didn’t mind Colin Quinn. He was a downgrade over Norm, but not as bad as say…Tina Fey.
Oh sorry, we were looking for Jimmy Fallon. Jimmy Fallon.
/breaks into laughter halfway through joke and thus fails to finish joke.
February 9th, 2011 at 2:19 PM
“This was a test of the emergency broadcast system. Had this been a real emergency, I would’ve run screaming out of the studio.”
February 9th, 2011 at 2:19 PM
Why was McDonald fired? I missed that if it was posted above.
February 9th, 2011 at 2:20 PM
I didn’t mind Colin Quinn. He was a downgrade over Norm, but not as bad as say…Tina Fey.
what? tina’s farts were better than collin. she is funny as hell.
February 9th, 2011 at 2:20 PM
The Simpsons was never the same without him…NewsRadio tried to go on but it was a fool’s hope that it could still be as good
February 9th, 2011 at 2:21 PM
I completely blocked him from my memory. He was terrible.
February 9th, 2011 at 2:21 PM
Don Ohlmeyer, president of NBC West Coast, fired him because he didn’t think he was funny.
February 9th, 2011 at 2:21 PM
The Simpsons was never the same without him…NewsRadio tried to go on but it was a fool’s hope that it could still be as good
Newsradio became unwatchable after Phil died. Stephen Root, however, remained great as Jimmy James until the very end.
February 9th, 2011 at 2:22 PM
The legend has always been too many OJ Simpson jokes during and after the trial…guess the Juice was buddies with some NBC higher up who had that kind of pull with the show
February 9th, 2011 at 2:22 PM
The Simpsons was never the same without him
totally. troy mcclure and lionel hutz were super.
February 9th, 2011 at 2:22 PM
I got so tired of her on Weekend Update. It was the same bit and joke over and over again.
February 9th, 2011 at 2:23 PM
As of this moment, Lionel Hutz no longer exists. Say hello to Miguel Sanchez!
February 9th, 2011 at 2:23 PM
Don Ohlmeyer, president of NBC West Coast, fired him because he didn’t think he was funny.
he sucked as nbc president, he sucked worse as espn’s peen gobbler/ombudsman.
February 9th, 2011 at 2:24 PM
Wait, wait, wait…Nobody thought to actually POST THIS when talking about Norm?
February 9th, 2011 at 2:24 PM
Going thru Norm’s SNL quotes on this website is pretty funny.
http://jpetrie.myweb.uga.edu/SNL.html
He did have great material to work with though, OJ, Clinton, Jack-O, Harding-Kerrigan, Bobbitt, Dahmer, etc…
February 9th, 2011 at 2:25 PM
The Simpsons was never the same without him
hi, i’m troy mcclure. you may remember from such educational films as “gladys the groove mule”
February 9th, 2011 at 2:25 PM
“But your ad says ‘No money down’”
“I’m sorry, that should say ‘No, money down!‘”
February 9th, 2011 at 2:25 PM
I saw this too. Pretty interesting. I think this was on Vh1. It had a lot about Norm getting fired as well.
February 9th, 2011 at 2:26 PM
i wish i had a list of all the funny hi, i’m troy mcclure, sayings
February 9th, 2011 at 2:27 PM
Don Ohlmeyer, president of NBC West Coast, fired him because he didn’t think he was funny.
Didn’t he also insult Ohlmeyer or NBC during a broadcast?
February 9th, 2011 at 2:28 PM
That’s what it was, they had SNL in the 90s and 2000s. Even though the 90s were superior, even the 2000s retrospective was good. Forgot how funny Will Ferrell used to be.
February 9th, 2011 at 2:28 PM
Hi, I’m Troy McClure…you might remember me from such telethons as “Out With Gout ’88″ and “Let’s Save Tony Orlando’s House”!
I use “Out With Gout ’88″ whenever there’s some sort of pledge drive on TV
February 9th, 2011 at 2:30 PM
They had one on the 80s as well. All three of them were pretty interesting.
February 9th, 2011 at 2:31 PM
That’s what it was, they had SNL in the 90s and 2000s. Even though the 90s were superior, even the 2000s retrospective was good. Forgot how funny Will Ferrell used to be.
Hi, I’m Bob Goulet. Goulet!
February 9th, 2011 at 2:32 PM
Hi, I’m Troy McClure…you might remember me from such telethons as “Out With Gout ’88″ and “Let’s Save Tony Orlando’s House”!
i just had a laughter pee
February 9th, 2011 at 2:32 PM
I loved the “Lover” sketches. How they pronounced Hot Tub and Barbara Hernan-dez.
February 9th, 2011 at 2:34 PM
The only other one I can remember off hand was you might remember me from “Christmas Ape” and “Christmas Ape Goes To Summer Camp”…I think the other educational film was “Man Versus Nature: The Road To Victory” or something
February 9th, 2011 at 2:35 PM
I loved the “Lover” sketches. How they pronounced Hot Tub and Barbara Hernan-dez.
A former girlfriend and I used to get drunk and recite that scene from memory. Good times.
That was one of the few sketches where Jimmy Fallon laughing didn’t ruin the sketch.
“Dave…Dave…David!”
February 9th, 2011 at 2:35 PM
The only other one I can remember off hand was you might remember me from “Christmas Ape” and “Christmas Ape Goes To Summer Camp”…I think the other educational film was “Man Versus Nature: The Road To Victory” or something
There was also “They Came to Burgle Carnegie Hall”.
February 9th, 2011 at 2:36 PM
http://www.imdb.com/character/ch0003008/quotes
Andre the giant, we hardly knew thee!
February 9th, 2011 at 2:37 PM
My favs were “Here comes the Metric System!” and the made for TV movie “Locker Room Towel Boy: The Blinding of Larry Driscoll”.
The other one was the Debbie Downer sketch.
February 9th, 2011 at 2:37 PM
“Two Minus Three Equals Negative Fun” was before another school filmstrip they had to watch…possibly the one about eating meat where we were introduced to the word “scientician”
February 9th, 2011 at 2:38 PM
Here’s the list of Troy McClure stuff:
February 9th, 2011 at 2:38 PM
The funniest Norm OJ was putdown was this:
And, finally, first place in Weekend Update’s “Most Romantic Valentine” contest goes to David Delaferra of Carny, New Jersey. Yesterday, Mr. Delaferra, who works as a fireman here in the city, climbed the ladder of the firetruck to the 3rd floor office window of his girlfriend Alexandra. There with a dozen roses and a wedding ring, he proposed to her in front of all of her co-workers. Congratulations, David! And coming in last place for the 3rd year in a row: O.J. Simpson.
http://snltranscripts.jt.org/96/96mupdate.phtml
February 9th, 2011 at 2:38 PM
Dammit – Menarky beat me to it.
February 9th, 2011 at 2:39 PM
One of my favorite skits of all time.
February 9th, 2011 at 2:41 PM
I loved that. Dratch completely lost it. In that VH1 doc she says she was pissed at Fallon for cracking up during rehearsals and thought he was going to ruin the sketch, only it was she who lose her shit. So fucking funny.
February 9th, 2011 at 2:41 PM
“man vs nature: the road to victory.”
i am goingt to crap my pants
February 9th, 2011 at 2:43 PM
They tried to do the sketch again the next season and it fell completely flat.
February 9th, 2011 at 2:43 PM
I have tears in my eyes, totally forgot about “Get Confident, Stupid!”
February 9th, 2011 at 2:46 PM
I have tears in my eyes, totally forgot about “Get Confident, Stupid!”
me too. these quotes are gold. “dig your own grave and save!”
February 9th, 2011 at 2:51 PM
August 14th, 2011 at 9:33 PM
Ben Roethlisberger is a serial rapist. I hope the Steelers lose as long as he is their quarterback. They sure looked awful against the Redskins the other night.