Yankees and Mets Pay the Most For Wins
Baseball March 3rd. 2011, 12:45pm
The New York Yankees and New York Mets spent the most for each win above replacement (WAR), according to an article written by Sam Mamudi of Marketwatch.com. At the other end of the spectrum, the Florida Marlins, Tampa Bay Devil Rays, and Texas Rangers got the most bang for their buck in terms of cost per WAR.
The list feels generally correct in terms of teams that are getting the most value, but it doesn’t feel completely right. Take the two New York teams that show up next to each other at the bottom of the list. The Yankees spent $4.16 million per win above replacement, while the Mets spent $4.65 million per win above replacement. Why then are the Mets much more of a failure? Marginal value. In this case, the marginal value of going from a Wilpon (a replacement level owner) to a Steinbrenner (+4.0 in SFAR-Shots Fired above Replacement).
On an individual player level, consider someone that produces 2.0 wins above replacement-an average player-versus another that produces 6.0 wins above replacement. The second all-star caliber player is actually worth more than three times the amount of the average player because of the marginal value that each additional win above replacement provides. By Mamudi’s methodology, though, a team that paid more than three times the salary for that all-star would be getting less bang for their buck.
Now move to the team level, which is just the sum of those individual player contributions. Going from 25.0 WAR (a below average team) to 35.0 WAR in a season (average team) has some additional marginal value, but doesn’t change the chances of qualifying for the post-season very much. Going from 35.0 WAR to 45.0 WAR changes it greatly, even though the arithmetic difference is the same. And going to 55.0 WAR is a virtual lock for the post season.
So while the Yankees have spent the most on payroll by far, they also have the most wins above replacement for the last three years to go with it. The Mets and their second highest payroll are all the way down in 22nd in WAR. That’s the difference between two playoff appearances and a World Series title, versus nothing.
It’s also true at the other end. The Marlins may have spent slightly less than the Rays per WAR, but Florida did that by having the lowest payroll. They are better managed than other low payroll teams and have produced near average teams over the last three years. The Rays, on the other hand, have spent a little more (but still below league average) and produced the 2nd most WAR over the last three years, made two playoff appearances, and reached one World Series. I think most people would agree that the Rays are getting more value than the Marlins because of the marginal value of those additional wins.
I know that as a Kansas City resident, I would gladly take the slightly higher cost per WAR of the Philadelphia Phillies (20th on the list) versus the Royals (15th), Indians (16th), Nationals (18th) or Pirates (19th). I suspect that a method that took into account marginal value of additional WAR would move the Phillies around these franchises in value created per dollar.
[photo via Getty]

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48 Responses to “Yankees and Mets Pay the Most For Wins”
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March 3rd, 2011 at 12:51 PM
Great article Lisk. Just because you spend, doesn’t mean that you win more or less or get better production. Having a good core of homegrown players and smart signings/trades is the best mix.
Thankfully Ed Wade exists to dump players on other teams and eat contracts.
March 3rd, 2011 at 12:51 PM
Good stuff Lisk.
March 3rd, 2011 at 12:52 PM
Imma put this in the “No shit” bin
March 3rd, 2011 at 12:52 PM
Thankfully Ed Wade exists to dump players on other teams and eat contracts.
The 2011 Astros! Feel the magic!
/lets out long audible sigh.
March 3rd, 2011 at 12:54 PM
This is true. But high payroll teams can afford to outspend their mistakes in the next offseason while lower payroll teams are hamstrung by bad contracts.
March 3rd, 2011 at 12:55 PM
Thankfully Ed Wade exists to dump players on other teams and eat contracts.
The 2011 Astros! Feel the magic!
/lets out long audible sigh.
Does Ed have any use for Luke Walton?
March 3rd, 2011 at 12:56 PM
So…Pujols to the Yankees?
March 3rd, 2011 at 12:56 PM
Very true. The Kei Igawa signing by the Yankees doesn’t hurt them as much as say Derek Bell by the Pirates or Jayson Werth will kill the Natinals.
March 3rd, 2011 at 12:57 PM
Trying to decide if I really want to fork over MLB.tv money when I’m getting all the audio through CBS fantasy and MLBNetwork is so good.
By the way, this was awesome, Lisk. Well done.
The positive press for the Royals the last few days has been a breath of fresh air.
March 3rd, 2011 at 12:57 PM
Classic TBL moment…walking to lunch today, and I pass a Scottrade office where the office’s are exposed to the outside via ground level window…one of the dudes was reading The Big Lead.
March 3rd, 2011 at 12:59 PM
pujols and carpenter for posada and aj burnett.
/ WFAN’d
March 3rd, 2011 at 1:00 PM
Does Ed have any use for Luke Walton?
Would you accept a package of Carlos Lee and Clint Barmes in return?
March 3rd, 2011 at 1:01 PM
Very true. The Kei Igawa signing by the Yankees doesn’t hurt them as much as say Derek Bell by the Pirates or Jayson Werth will kill the Natinals.
It will forever be Derek “Operation Shutdown” Bell to me. So glad we dumped him before he turned into a real prima donna,
March 3rd, 2011 at 1:04 PM
Not sure I agree where Werth is concerned. certainly won’t even remotely be on Derek Bell level.
March 3rd, 2011 at 1:04 PM
Paolo?
March 3rd, 2011 at 1:05 PM
great googly moogly.
at least the national’s will be safe from the jayson werth killing spree, right?
March 3rd, 2011 at 1:08 PM
H
March 3rd, 2011 at 1:09 PM
Oops, fail.
Was going to say he spends all his time @ The Sports Hernia these days, I believe.
March 3rd, 2011 at 1:10 PM
Would be cool to compare year to year fluctuations in payroll, WAR, and revenue for each team.
March 3rd, 2011 at 1:11 PM
Didn’t he get busted for smoking crack at some point?
March 3rd, 2011 at 1:14 PM
Trying to decide if I really want to fork over MLB.tv money when I’m getting all the audio through CBS fantasy and MLBNetwork is so good.
Yeah, I’m trying to figure this out, too. What about the DirecTV option?
March 3rd, 2011 at 1:15 PM
The big part of the Phillies being so low on that list is because they’re paying Utley around $14 million and putting up a 5.4 WAR and Hamels making appx. $4 mil and putting up at 4.4 WAR
March 3rd, 2011 at 1:17 PM
ExtraInnings on DirecTV cost me $200 last year. Is there another option over there? I switched back to cable.
March 3rd, 2011 at 1:18 PM
I meant that he won’t be able to put up the value that’s expected from a $18.1 AAV contract. He better put up 6+ WAR each year as he enters his age 31 years. Washington just pulled a Soriano contract.
March 3rd, 2011 at 1:19 PM
Come on, man. The Cardinals would have to throw in a couple of their best prospects too in order for that to happen.
March 3rd, 2011 at 1:22 PM
i know, i was being a smart ass.
i don’t think washington signed him with the idea he will instantly change the team to a .500 team, but instead i think they signed him to help the team gain credibility among free agents.
March 3rd, 2011 at 1:22 PM
Is there another option over there?
I don’t think so. I saw it for like $130 something for this year. Not worth it, in your opinion?
March 3rd, 2011 at 1:23 PM
Ha, that’s great.
March 3rd, 2011 at 1:23 PM
Washington just pulled a Soriano contract.
Starring Bryce Harper as Felix Pie 2.0?
March 3rd, 2011 at 1:24 PM
but instead i think they signed him to help the team gain credibility among free agents.
I agree with this statement. The Nationals have inserted themselves into nearly every major free agent battle of the last two years and offered comparable money to some of the highest bidders. And the reaction has mostly been to laugh at them and be amused by their offer. Actually getting a player like Werth to sign such a contract gets them a little street cred, even if they do end up regretting the latter part of his contract.
March 3rd, 2011 at 1:24 PM
I remember Texas pulling the same trick with A-Rod back in 2000, and I panned that move then. Back then though I was partying like Sheen in college and the sports editor at my college’s opinion newspaper.
March 3rd, 2011 at 1:24 PM
that’s true, how silly of me.
i do enjoy the moments on sports radio when the host lets a moment of silence, or a slightly audible sigh, at the 300th re tarded trade idea of the day. you just know they want to reach through the microphones and strangle the caller.
March 3rd, 2011 at 1:26 PM
Who was I arguing with over the Arod deal a few weeks ago? It was someone on here.
March 3rd, 2011 at 1:27 PM
Who was I arguing with over the Arod deal a few weeks ago?
What was the argument? I wasn’t there but I love this type of thing
March 3rd, 2011 at 1:27 PM
if they can improve, maybe sniff .500 this year or next, their offers become much more attractive for the star free agents who think themselves good enough to put a team over the edge.
crazy scenario: nationals scrape together a .500 season and pony up the cash for pujols in an 11th hour pitch the cardinals can’t match.
March 3rd, 2011 at 1:30 PM
What was the argument? I wasn’t there but I love this type of thing
Dr. Tom (I think) and I asserted that Tom Hicks was a moron for dramatically overpaying for ARod when the next closest bidder wasn’t even within $50 million. The other person (who I can’t recall) asserted that it was worth it for the production. My response was that if ARod was going to pick the highest offer, then offering $50-$100 million more than the next highest bidder was both unnecessary and blindingly stupid. He didn’t produce more with the Rangers because he was paid $50-$100 million more than he otherwise would have. The same production could have been had for much less and Hicks would have perhaps not been sunk by the contract. As it is, Hicks was leveraged up to the hilt and is no longer the owner due in part to ludicrous deals like ARods (but also Chan Ho Park and Kevin Millwood).
March 3rd, 2011 at 1:32 PM
if they can improve, maybe sniff .500 this year or next, their offers become much more attractive for the star free agents who think themselves good enough to put a team over the edge.
crazy scenario: nationals scrape together a .500 season and pony up the cash for pujols in an 11th hour pitch the cardinals can’t match.
Agreed. But there’s a whole lot of ‘If’ in this scenario for the Nationals. As shown with ARod the ‘Build it and they will come’ approach does not always work. And sinking too much money into one player, for a franchise not called the Yankees or Red Sox, can be ruinous.
March 3rd, 2011 at 1:33 PM
crazy scenario: nationals scrape together a .500 season and pony up the cash for pujols in an 11th hour pitch the cardinals can’t match.
March 3rd, 2011 at 1:35 PM
crazy scenario: nationals scrape together a .500 season and pony up the cash for pujols in an 11th hour pitch the cardinals can’t match.
This is crazy. As for that argument, you’re absolutely correct on the magnitude of stupidity in the Hicks deal. Texas did need to be significantly higher than the Yankees or Red Sox or whoever was bidding at the time (don’t remember at all – Dodgers maybe?) but “significant” would be like $1MM/year not $5MM
March 3rd, 2011 at 1:39 PM
yeah, it’s a damned if you do, damned if you don’t. if they can’t make a splash with free agents to improve their team, there’s no guarantee they will be able to keep their stars if they keep losing.
there are few players in this game that can really elevate a team, not just in ticket sales and merch sales, and i think pujols could be in a good situation there, especially if strasburg comes back healthy.
what free agent would not want to be on a team with that kind of core, in that division?
March 3rd, 2011 at 1:42 PM
yeah, it’s a damned if you do, damned if you don’t. if they can’t make a splash with free agents to improve their team, there’s no guarantee they will be able to keep their stars if they keep losing.
The overall point and theme of all of this, which TBL in his talk of a salary cap seems to forget, is that it’s not HOW MUCH is spent so much as HOW it’s spent. It’s less about how much of a payroll the owner is willing to carry and more about how smart the front office people (from the GM down to the scouts) are in evaluating talent. If TBL et al want more contract and talent parity in baseball (which I would argue already exists) then they should really be pushing for an IQ test to accompany all baseball GM applications from here on out.
March 3rd, 2011 at 1:44 PM
I don’t see a scenario where the Nats are willing to throw $30MM at Pujols (down the shitter as it were. You know. Cause of Pujols. You know. Just say it out loud) or, even more importantly, a scenario where Pujols is going to Washington. Honestly, I’m kind of expecting Albert the Great to be seriously letdown by the market. Partly because I think he’s actually 34 years old right now and partly because the market for him is really stratefied. What big money owner is out there willing to outbid himself Tom Hick style right now?
March 3rd, 2011 at 1:49 PM
If the Dodgers or Mets have new owners by November (highly unlikely), you could see them make a move for Pujols. Pujols will have to shorten his contract length in my opinion.
The major issue is that the big players, Yankees, Phils, Red Sox are all set at 1b. Braves, White Sox, Twins, Giants, Mariners (if Smoak improves) all have young or established 1B.
/Pujols to the Orioles!
March 3rd, 2011 at 2:00 PM
I think it was me.
March 3rd, 2011 at 2:28 PM
I think it was me.
Well you were wrong. So there.
/WINNING
March 3rd, 2011 at 2:45 PM
We were areguing two different arguments though.
March 3rd, 2011 at 2:59 PM
We were areguing two different arguments though.
I don’t see that we were. Are you sure it was you I was arguing with?
March 3rd, 2011 at 3:01 PM
I was arguing that ARod was worth the contract. You were arguing that the Rangers overpaid all the other offers by a ridiculous sum. Different arguments, IMO.