Breaking Down the 2011 Kentucky Derby Field

The Toss-Outs: Brilliant Speed won the Bluegrass Stakes over the Keeneland polytrack, but has yet to show any form on dirt…Twinspired was second in that race, and while he looks like a horse who can get the distance, he too has shown no ability on dirt. Great name for Churchill Downs though…Watch Me Go was the shocking winner of the Tampa Bay Derby, but doesn’t appear to have ever finished ahead of any quality horses…Comma To The Top is well-seasoned, with 6 wins in 13 starts, but figures to need the lead, a style that doesn’t strike me as a winning one in this year’s field…and then there’s Uncle Mo, the 2010 juvenile champion, and one-time presumed favorite for the race. His connections entered him, but appear to still be wavering on whether he’ll make the starting gate — not exactly confidence-inspiring. He can take your money, he won’t be taking mine.

Can’t Be Completely Dismissed: Santiva has a nice stakes race in Louisville as a two-year old, but has struggled to get anything going this year. Talent is there, but might not be seasoned enough…Twice The Appeal gets Kentucky Derby magician Calvin Borel in the irons, and that’s the only reason he’s not in the toss-out category…Shackleford nearly shocked the field at 68-1 in the Florida Derby, and figures to be gunning for the lead from the start on Saturday. I’m skeptical that he’s going to be a major factor, but he does move up on a wet track…Midnight Interlude comes from the strong barn of Bob Baffert, and looked sharp in winning the Santa Anita Derby. But no horse has ever won the Derby without a race as a two-year old, and Midnight Interlude falls into that category…Master Of Hounds has a jinx to beat as well; no horse has won the Derby while exclusively prepping overseas. The Irish shipper looked strong in his March appearance in Dubai, but asking him to ship over the win may be too daunting a task.

We’re Getting Warmer: Nehro seems to have assumed the role of “wiseguy” horse, and will likely attract more betting action than of which he’s worthy. He’s obviously a talented closer, but you would have liked to have seen him get up for victories to feel a little more inspired…Mucho Macho Man may have the best backstory, trained by heart-transplant recipient Kathy Ritvo. The Risen Star winner took a step back in the Louisiana Derby, but may have had a disadvantageous set-up that day…Pants On Fire was the winner in New Orleans that day, and gives Rosie Napravnik the first Derby mount for a female jockey since 2003. There are some things to like here, but may not get the dream trip he got at the Fair Grounds…Derby Kitten snuck into the field when Toby’s Corner was declared out with an injury, and the Lexington Stakes winner could make the most of it. Another who will benefit greatly from an off track…Who would have thought that Todd Pletcher’s bigger Derby bullet would wind up being Stay Thirsty? But that appears to be the case. He was an impressive winner in the Gotham, but failed miserably in the Florida Derby. Definite candidate for a bounce-back performance.

And Your 2011 Kentucky Derby Winner Is: Soldat. Wavered between selecting any of the the last 5 listed (and indeed will have assorted wagers on all of them), but Soldat looks just a little stronger than the rest. Forgive the Florida Derby fiasco; if he can avoid getting into a needless speed duel, he’ll get a nice stalking trip from the outside post, and cruise to victory in the lane.

Good luck to everybody, and may all the colts come back safe and sound.

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