Last week the Red Sox were in bridge mode. They land John Lackey for five-years $85 million and suddenly they have “the best rotation in baseball” and are World Series contenders. Both extremes are convenient hyperbole for baseball writers and television pundits wishing to inject drama, but we must ask. Why is everyone so jazzed about John Lackey?
Lackey is the best available free agent starter, because others weren’t available. If Lackey was a woman, he would be “history class hot.” He’s the best of slim pickings from a small sample size. Confinement and forced engagement over time makes him more attractive than he would otherwise be. Spending $85 million, the Red Sox are touting him for a bikini calendar and showing up with a ring.
Lackey’s not bad. He’s 30 years old. He was solid from 2005 to 2007 (650.2 IP/3.33 ERA/1.268 WHIP/133 ERA+). His numbers dipped a bit in 2008 and 2009 (339.2IP/3.79 ERA/1.251 WHIP/118 ERA+). Lackey also missed 15 starts over those two years with arm injuries.
Along with the injury risk, Lackey may be trending downward. Lackey’s swinging strike rate has declined every year from 2005 to 2009, suggesting he will strikeout fewer batters and walk more. If he’s a 4.1 to 4.2 FIP pitcher, that’s acceptable but not spectacular production, from a player the Red Sox are paying for spectacular production. His projections are roughly similar to those for Daisuke and Clay Buchholz.
Signing Lackey resembles signing fellow Boras client J.D. Drew in 2007. The Red Sox are overpaying for a beneficial player because they can, but they won’t get the promised production to make it for fair value.
Since Epstein has started, Boston has opposed long-term pitching contracts. Nothing financially crippling or beyond four years. Lester signed for five, but at a discount. Why is Lackey the pitcher to smash the piggy bank for?
The Red Sox do not have “the best rotation in baseball.” They have the deepest, irrelevant when down to three men in October. Even with John Lackey, Boston has no one who scares you into altering your strategy in October. They are a collection of players consistently one-notch below greatness. That, consequently, is this team’s ceiling.
Last week the dire Red Sox were in bridge mode. They land John Lackey for five-years $85 million. Now, they have “the best rotation in the American League” and are World Series contenders. Both extremes are convenient hyperbole for baseball writers wishing to inject drama, but we must ask. Why is everyone so jazzed about John Lackey?
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Baseball teams haven’t stopped spending. They’re just spending more intelligently (Well…except for the Mets and the Giants). “Mid-market teams are showing their commitments to their best young players by signing them to long-term contracts, even in the face of recession. The Arizona Diamondbacks just gave 22-year-old Justin Upton $51.25 million to keep him locked up through 2015. The Seattle Mariners re-upped pitcher Felix Hernandez (age 23) for $78 million over five years, and outfielder Franklin Gutierrez (27) for $20.1 million over four years. All as the Yankees tightened their belts a bit by bidding adieu to aging stars like Damon and Hideki Matsui.” (Forbes)
